Reverse tracing of short-term earthquake precursors

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors

Volumn 145, Issue 1-4, 2004, Pages 75-85

  Keilis Borok, V ^a,b   Shebalin, P ^a   Gabrielov, A ^c   Turcotte, D ^d  

^a INSTITUTE OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION THEORY AND MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS   (Russian Federation)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^c PURDUE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Earthquake chains; Instability; Long range correlation; Precursors; Short term earthquake prediction

Indexed keywords

EARTHQUAKE MECHANISM; EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION;

EID: 2942714836     PISSN: 00319201     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.pepi.2004.02.010     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Aki, K., 2003. Introduction to seismology for earthquake prediction. In: Proceeding of the Seventh Workshop on Non-Linear Dynamics and Earthquake Prediction, International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Preprint).
2. ANSS/CNSS Worldwide Earthquake Catalog. Produced by Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) and hosted by the Northern California Data Center (NCEDC), 1965-2003, http://quake.geo.berkeley.edu/anss
3. Bird P.Testing hypotheses on plate-driving mechanisms with global lithosphere models including topography, thermal structure, and faults J. Geophys. Res. 103B5 1998 10115-10129
4. Blanter E.M.Shnirman M.G.Simple hierarchical systems: stability, self-organized criticality and catastrophic behavior Phys. Rev. E 556 1997 6397-6403
5. Bowman D.D.Ouillon G.Sammis C.G.Sornette A.Sornette D.An observational test of the critical earthquake concept J. Geophys. Res. 103 1998 24359-24372
6. Buffe C.G.Varnes D.J.Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the Great San Francisco Bay region J. Geophys. Res. 98 1993 9871-9883
7. Caputo M.Console R.Gabrielov A.M.Keilis-Borok V.I.Sidorenko T.V.Long-term premonitory seismicity patterns in Italy Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc. 75 1983 71-75
8. Gabrielov, A., Newman, W.I., 1994. Seismicity modeling and earthquake prediction: a review. In: Newman, W.I., Gabrielov, A., Turcotte, D.L. (Eds.), Non-linear Dynamics and Predictability of Geophysical Phenomena, vol. 18. American Geophysics University, International University of Geodesy and Geophysics, Geophysical Monograph 83, IUGG, pp. 7-13.
9. Gabrielov A.Newman W.I.Turcotte D.L.An exactly soluble hierarchical clustering model: inverse cascades, self-similarity and scaling Phys. Rev. E 60 1999 5293-5300
10. Gabrielov A.M.Zaliapin I.V.Newman W.I.Keilis-Borok V.I.Colliding cascades model for earthquake prediction Geophys. J. Int. 143 2000 427-437
11. Jaume S.C.Sykes L.R.Evolving towards a critical point: A review of accelerating seismic moment/energy release prior to large and great earthquakes Pure Appl. Geophys. 155 1999 279-306
12. Jin, A., Aki, K., Liu, Z., Keilis-Borok, V.I., 2003. Brittle-ductile interaction hypothesis for earthquake loading. Abstract, Hagiwara Symposium, XXIII General Assembly of IUGG, 2003, Sapporo, Japan.
13. Kantorovich, L.V., Keilis-Borok, V.I., 1991. Earthquake prediction and decision making: social, economic, legislative and civil defense domains. In: Proceedings of International Conference on Earthquake Prediction: State-of-the-Art, 15-18 October, Strasbourg, France, pp. 586-593.
14. Keilis-Borok V.I.The lithosphere of the Earth as a non-linear system with implications for earthquake prediction Rev. Geophys. 281 1990 19-34
15. Keilis-Borok V.I.Intermediate-term earthquake prediction Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 93 1996 3748-3755
16. Keilis-Borok V.I.Earthquake prediction: state-of-the-art and emerging possibilities Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 30 2002 1-33
17. Keilis-Borok V.I.Kossobokov V.G.Premonitory activation of earthquake flow: algorithm M8 Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 611-2 1990a 73-83
18. Keilis-Borok V.I.Malinovskaya L.N.One regularity in the occurrence of strong earthquakes J. Geophys. Res. 6914 1964 3019-3024
19. Keilis-Borok V.I.Rotwain I.M.Diagnosis of time of increased probability of strong earthquakes in different regions of the world: algorithm CN Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 611-2 1990b 57-72
20. Keilis-Borok, V.I., Shebalin, P.N. (Eds.), 1999. Dynamics of Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. (Special Issue), 111, 179-330.
21. Keilis-Borok V.I.Shebalin P.N.Zaliapin I.V.Premonitory patterns of seismicity months before a large earthquake: five case histories in Southern California Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 9926 2002 16562-16567
22. Keilis-Borok, V.I., Soloviev, A.A. (Eds.), 2003. Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction. Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, 335 pp.
23. Keilis-Borok V.Stock J.H.Soloviev A.Mikhalev P.Pre-recession pattern of six economic indicators in the USA J. Forecast. 19 2000 65-80
24. King S.D.Lowman J.P.Gable C.W.Episodic tectonic plate reorganizations driven by mantle convection Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 203 2002 83-91
25. Knopoff L.Levshina T.Keilis-Borok V.I.Mattoni C.Increased long-range intermediate-magnitude earthquake activity prior to strong earthquakes in California J. Geophys. Res. 101 1996 5779-5796
26. Kossobokov V.G.Carlson J.M.Active zone size vs. activity: a study of different seismicity patterns in the context of the prediction algorithm M8 J. Geophys. Res. 100 1995 6431-6441
27. Kossobokov, V., Shebalin, P., 2003. Earthquake prediction. In: Keilis-Borok, V.I., Soloviev, A.A. (Eds.), Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction. Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, pp. 141-207.
28. Ma, Z., Fu, Z., Zhang, Y., Wang, C., Zhang, G., Liu, D., 1990. Earthquake Prediction: Nine Major Earthquakes in China. Springer, New York.
29. Mogi, K., 1985. Earthquake Prediction. Academic Press, Tokyo.
30. Molchan, G.M., 2003. Earthquake prediction strategies: a theoretical analysis. In: Keilis-Borok, V.I., Soloviev, A.A. (Eds.), Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction. Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, pp. 209-237.
31. NEIC, 2004. NEIC Worldwide Earthquake Catalog. Produced by United States Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center, USGS, NEIC, http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/epic/epic.htm
32. Newman W.I.Turcotte D.L.Gabrielov A.Log-periodic behavior of a hierarchical failure model with applications to precursory seismic activation Phys. Rev. E 52 1995 4827-4835
33. Novikova O.Shebalin P.Keilis-Borok V.I.A second approximation to intermediate-term earthquake prediction: two cases histories for southeastern Mediterranean. Problems of Theoretical Seismology and Seismicity Comput. Seismol. 33 2002 186-206
34. Press, F. (Eds.), 1965. Earthquake Prediction: A Proposal for a Ten Year Program of Research. Ad Hoc Panel on Earthquake Prediction, White House Office of Science and Technology, Washington, DC, 134 pp.
35. Press F.Allen C.Pattern of seismic release in the Southern California region J. Geophys. Res. 100 1995 6421-6430
36. Romanowicz B.Spatiotemporal patterns in the energy-release of great earthquakes Science 260 1993 1923-1926
37. Rotwain I.Novikova O.Performance of the earthquake prediction algorithm CN in 22 regions of the world Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 111 1999 207-214
38. Rundle, J., Turcotte, D., Klein, W. (Eds.), 2000. Geocomplexity and the Physics of Earthquakes. American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 284 pp.
39. Rundquist D.V.Soloviev A.A.Numerical modeling of block structure dynamics: an arc subduction zone Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 1113-4 1999 241-252
40. Scholz, C.H., 1990. The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
41. Shebalin, P., Keilis-Borok, V., Zaliapin, I., Uyeda, S., Nagao, T., Tsybin, N., in press. Short-term advance prediction of the large Hokkaido earthquake, 25 September 2003, magnitude 8.1: a case history. Earth Planets Space, in press.
42. Shebalin P.Zaliapin I.Keilis-Borok V.I.Premonitory rise of the earthquakes' correlation range: lesser Antilles Phys. Earth Planet. Int. 1223-4 2000 241-249
43. Sornette D., 2000. Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences. Chaos, Fractals, Self-organization and Disorder: Concepts - Tools. Springer Ser. Synerg., Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, 432 pp.
44. Turcotte, D.L., 1997. Fractals and Chaos in Geology and Geophysics, 2nd ed. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
45. Uyeda, S., Park, S. (Eds.), 2002. In: Proceedings of the International Symposium on The Recent Aspects of Electromagnetic Variations Related with Earthquakes (Special Issue), 20 and 21 December 1999, J. Geodyn., 33, 4-5.
46. Zaliapin I.Keilis-Borok V.I.Axen G.Premonitory spreading of seismicity over the faults' network in southern California: precursor accord J. Geophys. Res. 107B10 2002a 2221
47. Zaliapin I.Liu Z.Zöller G.Keilis-Borok V.I.Turcotte D.On increase of earthquake correlation length prior to large earthquakes in California Comput. Seismol. 33 2002b 141-161
48. Zaliapin, I., Jin, A., Liu, Z., Aki, K., Keilis-Borok, V., 2003a. Temporal (un)correlations between coda Q-1 and seismicity-multiscale trend analysis. Pure. Appl. Geophys., in press.
49. Zaliapin I.Keilis-Borok V.I.Ghil M.A Boolean delay equation model of colliding cascades. Part II: Prediction of critical transitions J. Stat. Phys. 1113-4 2003b 839-861
50. Zöller G.Hainzl S.Kurths J.Observation of growing correlation length as an indicator for critical point behavior prior to large earthquakes J. Geophys. Res. 106 2001 2167-2176