Spatial-temporal rainfall modelling for flood risk estimation

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment

Volumn 19, Issue 6, 2005, Pages 403-416

  Wheater, H S ^a   Chandler, R E ^b   Onof, C J ^a   Isham, V S ^b   Bellone, E ^a,b   Yang, C ^b   Lekkas, D ^a   Lourmas, G ^b   Segond, M L ^a  

^a IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Generalized linear models; Poisson cluster processes; Rainfall simulation; Spatial temporal disaggregation

Indexed keywords

FLOODING; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; RAINFALL; RISK ASSESSMENT; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS;

EID: 29144533917     PISSN: 14363240     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00477-005-0011-8     Document Type: Article

References (42)

1. Beven KJ, Binley AM (1992) The future of distributed models: model calibration and predictive uncertainty. Hydrol Process 6:279-298
2. Bowman A, Azzalini A (1997) Applied smoothing techniques for data analysis - the kernel approach with S-plus illustrations. Oxford University Press, Oxford
3. Chandler RE (1997) A spectral method for estimating parameters in rainfall models. Bernoulli 3:301-322
4. Chandler RE, Wheater HS (2002). Climate change detection using generalized linear models for rainfall - a case study from the West of Ireland. Water Resour Res 38(10). DOI 10.1029/2001WR000906
5. Coe R, Stern R (1982) Fitting models to daily rainfall. J Appl Meteorol 21:1024-1031
6. Cowpertwait PSP (1991) Further developments of the Neyman-Scott clustered point process for modelling rainfall. Water Resour Res 27(7):1431-1438
7. Cowpertwait PSP (1994) A generalized point process model for rainfall. Proc Roy Soc Lond A447:23-37
8. Cowpertwait PSP (1998) A Poisson-cluster model of rainfall: some high-order moments and extreme values. Proc Roy Soc Lond A454:885-898
9. Cowpertwait PSP, Metcalfe AV, O'Connell PE, Maudsley JA, Threlfall JL (1991) Stochastic generation of rainfall time series, Foundation for Water Research Report, No. FR 0217
10. Eagleson PS (1978) Climate, soil and vegetation, 2. The distribution of annual precipitation derived from observed storm sequences. Water Resour Res 14(5):713-721
11. Entekhabi D, Rodriguez-Iturbe I, Eagleson PS (1989) Probabilistic representationof the temporal rainfall process by a modified Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses model: parameter estimation and validation. Water Resour Res 25(2):295-302
12. Foufoula-Georgiou E, Lettenmaier D (1986) Compatibility of continuous rainfall occurrence models with discrete rainfall observations. Water Resour Res 22(8): 1316-1322
13. Fowler HJ, Kilsby C, O'Connell PE (2000) A stochastic rainfall model for the assessment of regional water resource systems under changed climatic conditions. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 4(2):263-282
14. Freer J, Beven K, Abreise B (1996) Bayesian uncertainty in runoff prediction and the value of data: an application of the GLUE approach. Water Resour Res 32:2163-2173
15. Gershenfeld NA (1999) The nature of mathematical modelling. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
16. Godambe VP, Kale BK. (1991) Estimating functions: an overview. In: Godambe VP (ed) Estimating functions. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 3-20
17. Hurrell JW (1995) Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269:676-679
18. Institute of Hydrology (1999) Flood estimation handbook. Wallingford, UK.
19. Koutsoyiannis D, Onof C (2000) HYETOS - a computer program for stochastic disaggregation of fine-scale rainfall(http://www.itia.ntua.gr/e/softinfo/3/)
20. Koutspyiannis D, Onof C (2001) Rainfall disaggregation using adjusting procedures on a Poisson cluster model. J Hydrol 246:109-122
21. Lamb R, Kay AL (2004) Confidence intervals for a spatially generalized, continuous simulation flood frequency model for Great Britain. Water Resour Res 40(7). DOI 10.1029/2003WR002428
22. Lovejoy S, Schertzer D (1995) Multifractals and rain, in uncertainty concepts. In: Kundzewicz AW (ed) Hydrology and hydrological modelling. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 62-103
23. Northrop PJ (1998) A clustered spatial-temporal model of rainfall. Proc R Soc Lend A454:1875-1888
24. Northrop PJ (2005) Estimating the parameters of rainfall models using maximum marginal likelihood. Student 5(3): (in press)
25. Onof C, Townend J (2004) Modelling 5 minute rainfall extremes, In: Webb B, Arnell N, Onof C, MacIntyre N, Gurney R, Kirby C (eds) Hydrology: science and practice for the 21st Century, vol I. British Hydrological Society, pp 203-209
26. Onof C, Wheater HS (1994) Improvements to the modelling of British rainfall using a modified random parameter Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse model. J Hydrol 157:177-195
27. Onof C, Chandler RE, Kakou A, Northrop P, Wheater HS, Isham VS (2000) Rainfall modelling using Poisson-cluster processes: a review of developments. Stochastic Environ Res And Risk Assessm 14:384-411
28. OPW (1998) An investigation of the flooding problems in the Gort-Ardrahan area of South Galway, by Southern Water Global and Jennings O'Donovan and partners. Office of Public Works, Dublin
29. Ormsbee LE (1989) Rainfall disaggregation model for continuous hydrologic modelling. J Hydraulic Eng ASCE 115:507-525
30. Qian B, Corte-Real J, Xu H (2002) Multisite stochastic weather models for impact studies. Int J Climatol 22:1377-1397
31. R Development Core Team (2004) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria (http://www.R-project.org)
32. Rodriguez-Iturbe I, Cox DR, Isham VS (1987) Some models for rainfall based on stochastic point processes. Proc R Soc Lond A410:269-288
33. Rodriguez-Iturbe I, Cox DR, Isham VS (1988) A point process model: further developments. Proc R Spc Lond A 417:283-298
34. Samuel C (1999) Stochastic rainfall modelling of convective storms in Walnut Gulch, Arizona. PhD Thesis, Imperial College London
35. Smithers J, Schulze R, Pegram G (1999) Predicting short duration design storms in South Africa using inadequate data, hydrological extremes: understanding, predicting, mitigating, proceedings of the IUGG 99, symposium HS1, Birmingham
36. Wagener T, Wheater HS, Gupta HV (2004) Rainfall-runoff modeling in gauged and ungauged catchments. Imperial College Press, London
37. Wheater H S (2002) Progress in and prospects for fluvial flood modelling. Phil Trans R Soc Lond A 360:1409-1431
38. Wheater HS, Isham VS, Onof C, Chandler RE, Northrop PJ, Guiblin P, Bate SM, Cox DR, Koutsoyiannis D (2000) Generation of spatially consistent rainfall data Report to the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (2 volumes). Also available as Research Report No. 204, Department of Statistical Science, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT (http://www.ucl.ac.uk/ research/Resrprts/abstracts.html)
39. Wilks DS (1998) Multisite generalization of a daily stochastic precipitation generation model. J Hydrol 210:178-191
40. Wilks DS, Wilby RL (1999) The weather generation game: a review of stochastic weather models. Prog Phys Geogr 23(3):329-357
41. Wood SJ, Jones DA, Moore RJ (2000) Static and dynamic calibration of radar data for hydrological use. HESS 4(4):545-554
42. Yang C, Chandler RE, Isham VS, Wheater HS (2004) Spatialtemporal rainfall simulation using generalized linear models. Research Report, No 247, Department of Statistical Science, University College London. Available from http://www.ucl.a-c.uk/Stats/research/Resrprts/abstracts.html