Predicting southern African summer rainfall using a combination of MOS and perfect prognosis

Geophysical Research Letters

Volumn 32, Issue 15, 2005, Pages

  Landman, Willem A ^a,b   Goddard, Lisa ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF PRETORIA   (South Africa)

^b SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE   (South Africa)

^c Och Spine at New York Presbyterian Hospitals   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

APPROXIMATION THEORY; CLIMATOLOGY; COMPUTER SIMULATION; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PROBABILITY; STATISTICS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL (AGCM); MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS (MOS); PERFECT PROGNOSIS;

RAIN;

ACCURACY ASSESSMENT; ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; FORECASTING METHOD; RAINFALL; SUMMER;

EID: 25844462758     PISSN: 00948276     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2005GL022910     Document Type: Article

References (18)

1. Barnett, T. P., and R. W. Preisendorfer (1987), Origins and levels of monthly and seasonal forecast skill for United States air temperature determined by canonical correlation analysis, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 1825-1850.
2. Bartman, A. G., W. A. Landman, and C. J. de W. Rautenbach (2003), Recalibration of general circulation model output to austral summer rainfall over southern Africa, Int. J. Climatol., 23, 1407-1419.
3. Goddard, L., and S. J. Mason (2002), Sensitivity of seasonal climate forecasts to persisted SST anomalies, Clim. Dyn., 19, 619-632.
4. Jackson, J. E. (1991), A User's Guide to Principal Components, 569 pp., John Wiley, Hoboken, N. J.
5. Landman, W. A., and L. Goddard (2002), Statistical recalibration of GCM forecasts over southern Africa using model output statistics, J. Clim., 15, 2038-2055.
6. Landman, W. A., S. J. Mason, P. D. Tyson, and W. J. Tennant (2001), Retro-active skill of multi-tiered forecasts of summer rainfall over southern Africa, Int. J. Climatol., 21, 1-19.
7. Mason, S. J. (2004), On using "climatology" as a reference strategy in the Brier and ranked probability skill scores, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 1891-1895.
8. Mason, S. J., and M. R. Jury (1997), Climate variability and change over southern Africa: A reflection on underlying processes, Prog. Phys. Geogr., 21, 23-50.
9. Mason, S. J., A. M. Joubert, C. Cosijn, and S. J. Crimp (1996), Review of seasonal forecasting techniques and their applicability to southern Africa, Water SA, 22, 203-209.
10. Mjelde, J. W., T. N. Thompson, C. J. Nixon, and P. J. Lamb (1997), Utilizing a farm-level decision model to help prioritise future climate prediction research needs, Meteorol. Appl., 4, 161-170.
11. Reason, C. J. C. (2001), Subtropical Indian Ocean SST dipole events and southern African rainfall, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2225-2227.
12. Reynolds, R. W., and T. M. Smith (1994), Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimum interpolation, J. Clim., 7, 929-948.
13. Roeckner, E., et al. (1996), The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate, Rep. 218, p. 90, Max Planck Inst. für Meteorol., Hamburg, Germany.
14. Smith, T. M., R. W. Reynolds, R. E. Livezey, and D. C. Stokes (1996), Reconstruction of historical sea surface temperatures using empirical orthogonal functions, J. Clim., 9, 1403-1420.
15. Todd, M., and R. Washington (1999), Circulation anomalies associated with tropical-temperate troughs in southern Africa and the south west Indian Ocean, Clim. Dyn., 15, 937-951.
16. Todd, M., R. Washington, and P. I. Palmer (2004), Water vapour transport associated with tropical-temperate trough systems over southern Africa and the southwest Indian Ocean, Int. J. Climatol., 24, 555-568.
17. Tyson, P. D., and R. A. Preston-Whyte (2000), The Weather and Climate of Southern Africa, 200 pp., Oxford Univ. Press, New York.
18. Wilks, D. S. (1995), Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, 467 pp., Elsevier, New York.