Effects of weather and population density on reproductive success and population dynamics in a song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) population: A long-term study

Auk

Volumn 122, Issue 2, 2005, Pages 571-592

  Chase, Mary K ^a,b   Nur, Nadav ^b   Geupel, Geoffrey R ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b PRBO CONSERVATION SCIENCE   (United States)

Author keywords

Breeding phenology; California coastal scrub; Density dependence; Density independence; El Ni o Southern Oscillation; Melospiza melodia; Nest predation; Nest success; Population density; Population dynamics; Rainfall; Reproductive success; Song sparrow

Indexed keywords

PASSERINE; PHENOLOGY; POPULATION DENSITY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; REPRODUCTIVE SUCCESS; WEATHER;

CALIFORNIA; NORTH AMERICA; UNITED STATES; WESTERN HEMISPHERE; WORLD;

MELOSPIZA MELODIA; PASSERIDAE;

EID: 18744380719     PISSN: 00048038     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1642/0004-8038(2005)122[0571:EOWAPD]2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (91)

1. AMERICAN ORNITHOLOGISTS' UNION. 1983. Check-list of North American Birds, 6th ed. American Ornithologists' Union, Washington, D.C.
2. ANDREWARTHA, H. G., AND L. C. BIRCH. 1954. The Distribution and Abundance of Animals. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
3. ARCESE, P., AND J. N. M. SMITH. 1988. Effects of population density and supplemental food on reproduction in Song Sparrows. Journal of Animal Ecology 57:119-136.
4. ARCESE, P., J. N. M. SMITH, AND M. I. HATCH. 1996. Nest predation by cowbirds and its consequences for passerine demography. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 93:4608-4611.
5. ARCESE, P., J. N. M. SMITH, W. M. HOCHACHKA, C. M. ROGERS, AND D. LUDWIG. 1992. Stability, regulation, and the determination of abundance in an insular Song Sparrow population. Ecology 73:805-822.
6. ARCESE, P., M. K. SOGGE, A. B. MARR, AND M. A. PATTEN. 2002. Song Sparrow (Melospiza melodia). In The Birds of North America, no. 704 (A. Poole and F. Gill, Eds.). Birds of North America, Philadelphia.
7. ATKINS, M. D. 1977. Insect biomass and diversity. Pages 180-183 in Chile-California Mediterranean Scrub Atlas: A Comparative Analysis (N. J. W. Thrower and D. E. Bradbury, Eds.). Dowden, Hutchinson and Ross, Stroudsburg, Pennsylvania.
8. BEGON, M., J. L. HARPER, AND C. R. TOWNSEND. 1990. Ecology: Individuals, Populations, and Communities, 2nd ed. Blackwell Scientific Publications, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
9. BERRYMAN, A., AND P. TURCHIN. 2001. Identifying the density-dependent structure underlying ecological time series. Oikos 92:265-270.
10. BOAG, P. T., AND P. R. GRANT. 1984. Darwin's finches (Geospiza) on Isla Daphne Major, Galapagos: Breeding and feeding ecology in a climatically variable environment. Ecological Monographs 54:463-489.
11. BOTH, C., J. M. TINBERGEN, AND M. E. VISSER. 2000. Adaptive density dependence of avian clutch size. Ecology 81:3391-3403.
12. BOTH, C., AND M. E. VISSER. 2003. Density dependence, territoriality, and divisibility of resources: From optimality models to population processes. American Naturalist 161:326-336.
13. BROWN, J. L., AND S.-H. LI. 1996. Delayed effect of monsoon rains influences laying date of a passerine bird living in an arid environment. Condor 98:879-884.
14. BROWN, J. L., S.-H. LI, AND N. BHAGABATI. 1999. Long-term trend toward earlier breeding in an American bird: A response to global warming? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 96:5565-5569.
15. CHASE, M. K. 2001. Reproductive success, natal dispersal, and recruitment in a Song Sparrow (Melospiza melodia) population breeding in California coastal scrub. Ph.D. dissertation, University of California, Riverside.
16. CHASE, M. K. 2002. Nest site selection and nest success in a Song Sparrow population: The significance of spatial variation. Condor 104:103-116.
17. CODY, M. L. 1981. Habitat selection in birds: The roles of vegetation structure, competitors, and productivity. BioScience 31:107-113.
18. CURRY, R. L., AND P. R. GRANT. 1989. Demography of the cooperatively breeding Galapagos Mockingbird, Nesomimus parvulus, in a climatically variable environment. Journal of Animal Ecology 58:441-463.
19. DESANTE, D. F., AND L. F. BAPTISTA. 1989. Factors affecting the termination of breeding in Nuttall's White-crowned Sparrows. Wilson Bulletin 101:120-124.
20. DESANTE, D. F., AND G. R. GEUPEL. 1987. Landbird productivity in central coastal California: The relationship to annual rainfall, and a reproductive failure in 1986. Condor 89:636-653.
21. FORCHHAMMER, M. C., E. POST, AND N. C. STENSETH. 1998a. Breeding phenology and climate. Nature 391:29-30.
22. FORCHHAMMER, M. C., N. C. STENSETH, E. POST, AND R. LANGVATN. 1998b. Population dynamics of Norwegian red deer: Density-dependence and climatic variation. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B 265:341-350.
23. GENDE, S. M., M. F. WILSON [sic], AND M. JACOBSEN. 1997. Reproductive success of Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) and its association with habitat or landscape features and weather in southeast Alaska. Canadian Journal of Zoology 75:1595-1604.
24. GRANT, P. R., AND B. R. GRANT. 1987. The extraordinary El Niño event of 1982-83: Effects on Darwin's finches on Isla Genovesa, Galapagos. Oikos 49:55-66.
25. GRINNELL, J., AND A. H. MILLER. 1944. The Distribution of the Birds of California. Pacific Coast Avifauna, no. 27.
26. HAMILTON, J. D. 1994. Time Series Analysis. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey.
27. HATCH, M. I. 1997. Variation in Song Sparrow nest defense: Individual consistency and relationship to nest success. Condor 99:282-289.
28. HEJL, S. J., J. VERNER, AND R. P. BALDA. 1988. Weather and bird populations in true fir forests of the Sierra Nevada, California. Condor 90:561-574.
29. HINES, J. E., AND J. R. SAUER. 1989. Program CONTRAST: A general program for the analysis of several survival or recovery rate estimates. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Fish and Wildlife Service Technical Report 24.
30. HOBBS, R. J., AND H. A. MOONEY. 1995. Effects of episodic rain events on Mediterranean-climate ecosystems. Pages 71-85 in Time Scales of Biological Responses to Water Constraints: The Case of Mediterranean Biota (J. Roy, J. Aronson, and F. di Castri, Eds.). Elsevier Science Publishing, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
31. JAKSIC, F. M., P. FEINSINGER, AND J. E. JIMENEZ. 1996. Ecological redundancy and long-term dynamics of vertebrate predators in semi-arid Chile. Conservation Biology 10:252-262.
32. JAKSIC, F. M., S. I. SILVA, P. L. MESERVE, AND J. R. GUTIÉRREZ. 1997. A long-term study of vertebrate predator responses to an El Niño (ENSO) disturbance in western South America. Oikos 78:341-354.
33. JÄRVINEN, A., AND R. A. VÄISÄNEN. 1984. Reproduction of Pied Flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) in good and bad breeding seasons in a northern marginal area. Auk 101:439-450.
34. JOHNSON, D. H. 1979. Estimating nest success: The Mayfield method and an alternative. Auk 96:651-661.
35. JONZÉN, N., A. HEDENSTRÖM, C. HJORT, Å. LINDSTRÖM, P. LUNDBERG, AND A. ANDERSSON. 2002. Climate patterns and the stochastic dynamics of migratory birds. Oikos 97:329-336.
36. JUDGE, G. G., R. C. HILL, W. E. GRIFFITHS, H. LÜTKEPOHL, AND T.-C. LEE. 1988. Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Econometrics, 2nd ed. John Wiley and Sons, New York.
37. KOENIG, W. D., AND R. L. MUMME. 1987. Population Ecology of the Cooperatively Breeding Acorn Woodpecker. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey.
38. KREBS, C. J. 2002. Two complementary paradigms for analysing population dynamics. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series B 357:1211-1219.
39. KRÜGER, O., AND J. LINDSTRÖM. 2001. Habitat heterogeneity affects population growth in goshawk Accipiter gentilis. Journal of Animal Ecology 70:173-181.
40. KRÜGER, O., R. LIVERSIDGE, AND J. LINDSTRÖM. 2002. Statistical modelling of the population dynamics of a raptor community in a semi-desert environment. Journal of Animal Ecology 71:603-613.
41. LACK, D. 1966. Population Studies of Birds. Oxford University Press, Oxford, United Kingdom.
42. LI, S.-H., AND J. L. BROWN. 1999. Influence of climate on reproductive success in Mexican Jays. Auk 116:924-936.
43. MANOLIS, J. C., D. E. ANDERSEN, AND F. J. CUTHBERT. 2000. Uncertain nest fates in songbird studies and variation in Mayfield estimation. Auk 117:615-626.
44. MARTIN, T. E. 1992. Interaction of nest predation and food limitation in reproductive strategies. Pages 163-197 in Current Ornithology, vol. 9 (D. M. Power, Ed.). Plenum Press, New York.
45. MARTIN, T. E. 2001. Abiotic vs. biotic influences on habitat selection of coexisting species: Climate change impacts? Ecology 82:175-188.
46. MARTIN, T. E., AND G. R. GEUPEL. 1993. Nest-monitoring plots: Methods for locating nests and monitoring success. Journal of Field Ornithology 64:507-519.
47. MARZLUFF, J. M., AND R. P. BALDA. 1992. The Pinyon Jay: Behavioral Ecology of a Colonial and Cooperative Corvid. T & AD Poyser, London.
48. MAYFIELD, H. F. 1975. Suggestions for calculating nest success. Wilson Bulletin 87:456-466.
49. MCCARTY, J. P. 2001. Ecological consequences of recent climate change. Conservation Biology 15:320-331.
50. MCCLEERY, R. H., AND C. M. PERRINS. 1998. Temperature and egg-laying trends. Nature 391:30-31.
51. MORRISON, S. A., AND D. T. BOLGER. 2002. Variation in a sparrow's reproductive success with rainfall: Food and predator-mediated processes. Oecologia 133:315-324.
52. MURDOCH, W. W. 1994. Population regulation in theory and practice. Ecology 75:271-287.
53. MURRAY, B. G., JR. 1994. On density dependence. Oikos 69:520-523.
54. NEWTON, I, 1998. Population Limitation in Birds. Academic Press, San Diego.
55. NICE, M. M. 1937. Studies in the life history of the song sparrow: Part I. Transactions of the Linneaen Society of New York, vol. 4.
56. NICHOLSON, A. J. 1954. An outline of the dynamics of animal populations. Australian Journal of Zoology 2:9-65.
57. NILSSON, S. G. 1987. Limitation and regulation of population density in the nuthatch Sitta europaea (Aves) breeding in natural cavities. Journal of Animal Ecology 56:921-937.
58. NORTH, M., G. STEGER, R. DENTON, G. EBERLEIN, T. MUNTON, AND K. JOHNSON. 2000. Association of weather and nest-site structure with reproductive success in California Spotted Owls. Journal of Wildlife Management 64:797-807.
59. NOTT, M. P., D. F. DESANTE, R. B. SIEGEL, AND P. PYLE. 2002. Influences of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation on avian productivity in forests of the Pacific Northwest of North America. Global Ecology and Biogeography 11:333-342.
60. NOY-MEIR, I. 1973. Desert ecosystems: Environment and producers. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 4:25-51.
61. NUR, N., G. R. GEUPEL, AND G. BALLARD. 2000. The use of constant-effort mist-netting to monitor demographic processes in passerine birds: Annual variation in survival, productivity, and floaters. Pages 185-194 in Strategies for Bird Conservation: The Partners in Flight Planning Process (R. Bonney, D. N. Pashley, R. J. Cooper, and L. Niles, Eds.). U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Proceedings RMRS-P-16.
62. PATTEN, M. A., AND J. T. ROTENBERRY. 1999. The proximate effects of rainfall on clutch size of the California Gnatcatcher. Condor 101:876-880.
63. PATTERSON, B. R., AND V. A. POWER. 2002. Contributions of forage competition, harvest, and climate fluctuation to changes in population growth of northern white-tailed deer. Oecologia 130:62-71.
64. PEREIRA, J. S., AND M. M. CHAVES. 1995. Plant responses to drought under climate change in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Pages 140-160 in Global Change and Mediterranean-type Ecosystems (J. M. Moreno and W. C. Oechel, Eds.). Springer-Verlag, New York.
65. POST, E., AND N. C. STENSETH. 1999. Climatic variability, plant phenology, and northern ungulates. Ecology 80:1322-1339.
66. PULLIAM, H. R. 1988. Sources, sinks, and population regulation. American Naturalist 132:652-661.
67. RASMUSSON, E. M., AND J. M. WALLACE. 1983. Meteorological aspects of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Science 222:1195-1202.
68. RINGSBY, T. H., B.-E. SÆTHER, J. TUFTO, H. JENSEN, AND E. J. SOLBERG. 2002. Asynchronous spatiotemporal demography of a House Sparrow metapopulation in a correlated environment. Ecology 83:561-569.
69. ROTENBERRY, J. T., AND J. A. WIENS. 1989. Reproductive biology of shrubsteppe passerine birds: Geographical and temporal variation in clutch size, brood size, and fledging success. Condor 91:1-14.
70. ROTENBERRY, J. T.; AND J. A. WIENS. 1991. Weather and reproductive variation in shrubsteppe sparrows: A hierarchical analysis. Ecology 72:1325-1335.
71. ROYAMA, T. 1992. Analytical Population Dynamics. Chapman and Hall, London.
72. SÆTHER, B.-E., S. ENGEN, R. LANDE, C. BOTH, AND M. E. VISSER. 2002. Density dependence and stochastic variation in a newly established population of a small songbird. Oikos 99:331-337.
73. SÆTHER, B.-E., J. TUFTO, S. ENGEN, K. JERSTAD, O. W. ROSTAD, AND J. E. SKATAN. 2000. Population dynamical consequences of climate change for a small temperate songbird. Science 287:854-856.
74. SCHONHER, T., AND S. E. NICHOLSON. 1989. The relationship between California rainfall and ENSO events. Journal of Climate 2:1258-1269.
75. SCHREIBER, R. W., AND E. A. SCHREIBER. 1984. Central Pacific seabirds and the El Niño Southern Oscillation: 1982 to 1983 perspectives. Science 225:713-716.
76. SHERRY, T. W., AND R. T. HOLMES. 1995. Summer versus winter limitation of populations: What are the issues and what is the evidence? Pages 85-120 in Ecology and Management of Neotropical Migratory Birds: A Synthesis and Review of the Critical Issues (T. E. Martin and D. M. Finch, Eds.). Oxford University Press, New York.
77. SHERRY, T. W., AND R. T. HOLMES. 2000. Demographic modeling of migratory bird populations: The importance of parameter estimation using marked individuals. Pages 211-219 in Strategies for Bird Conservation: The Partners in Flight Planning Process (R. Bonney, D. N. Pashley, R. J. Cooper, and L. Niles, Eds.). U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Proceedings RMRS-P-16.
78. SIBLEY, R. M., AND J. HONE. 2002. Population growth rate and its determinants: An overview. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series B 357:1153-1170.
79. SILKEY, M., N. NUR, AND G. R. GEUPEL. 1999. The use of mist-net capture rates to monitor annual variation in abundance: A validation study. Condor 101:288-298.
80. SILLETT, T. S., R. T. HOLMES, AND T. W. SHERRY. 2000. Impacts of a global climate cycle on population dynamics of a migratory song-bird. Science 288:2040-2042.
81. SINCLAIR, A. R. E. 1989. Population regulation in animals. Pages 197-241 in Ecological Concepts (J. M. Cherret, Ed.). Blackwell Scientific Publications, Oxford.
82. SKINNER, W. R., R. L. JEFFERIES, T. J. CARLETON, R. F. ROCKWELL, AND K. F. ABRAHAM. 1998. Prediction of reproductive success and failure in Lesser Snow Geese based on early season climatic variables. Global Change Biology 4:3-16.
83. SMITH, J. N. M., M. J. TAITT, L. ZANETTE, AND I. H. MYERS-SMITH. 2003. How do Brown-headed Cowbirds (Molothrus ater) cause nest failures in Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia)? A removal experiment. Auk 120:772-783.
84. SPECHT, R. L. 1981. Primary production in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems regenerating after fire. Pages 257-267 in Mediterranean-type Shrublands (F. di Castri, D. W. Goodall, and R. L. Specht, Eds.). Elsevier Science Publishing, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
85. STENSETH, N. C., A. MYSTERUD, G. OTTERSEN, J. W. HURRELL, K.-S. CHAN, AND M. LIMA. 2002. Ecological effects of climate fluctuations. Science 297:1292-1296.
86. TRINE, C. L. 1998. Wood Thrush population sinks and implications for the scale of regional conservation strategies. Conservation Biology 12:576-585.
87. WIENS, J. A. 1977. On competition and variable environments. American Scientist 65: 590-597.
88. WILSON, S., AND P. ARCESE. 2003. El Niño drives timing of breeding but not population growth in the Song Sparrow (Melospiza melodia). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 100:11139-11142.
89. WILSON, U. W. 1991. Responses of three seabird species to El Niño events and other warm episodes on the Washington coast, 1979-1990. Condor 93:853-858.
90. WOOLFENDEN, G. E., AND J. W. FITZPATRICK. 1984. The Florida Scrub Jay: Demography of a Cooperative-breeding Bird. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey.
91. WUETHRICH, B. 2000. How climate change alters rhythms of the wild. Science 287:793-795.