Some contrasts between good and bad forecasts of warm season MCS rainfall

Journal of Hydrology

Volumn 288, Issue 1-2, 2004, Pages 122-152

  Jankov, Isidora ^a   Gallus Jr , William A ^a  

^a IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Convection; Forecast; Rainfall

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC HUMIDITY; COMPUTER SIMULATION; GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY);

MCS RAINFALL; RAINFALL FORMATION;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

ACCURACY ASSESSMENT; CONVECTION; ERROR ANALYSIS; FORECASTING METHOD; RAINFALL;

ACRONICTA LEPORINA;

EID: 1842676172     PISSN: 00221694     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.11.013     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (31)

1. Augustine J.A., Caracena F. Lower-tropospheric precursors to nocturnal MCS development over the Central United States. Wea. Forecast. 9:1994;116-135.
2. Baldwin, M.E., Mitchell, K.E., 1997. The NCEP hourly multi-sensor U.S. precipitation analysis for operations and GCIP research. Preprints, 13th AMS Conference on Hydrology, Long Beach, CA. pp. 54-55.
3. Baldwin M.E., Kain J.S., Kay M.P. Properties of the convection scheme in NCEP's Eta model that affect forecast sounding interpretation. Wea. Forecast. 17:2002;1063-1079.
4. Betts A.K. A new convective adjustment scheme. Part I. Observational and theoretical basis. Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc. 112:1986;677-692.
5. Betts A.K., Miller M.J. A new convective adjustment scheme. Part II. Single column tests using GATE wave, BOMEX, and arctic air-mass data sets. Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc. 112:1986;693-709.
6. Black T.M. The new NMC mesoscale Eta model: description and forecast examples. Wea. Forecast. 9:1994;265-278.
7. Blackadar A.K. Boundary layer wind maxima and their significance for the growth of the nocturnal inversions. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 38:1957;283-290.
8. Chen F., Mitchell K., Schaake J., Xue Y., Pan H.-L., Koren V., Duan Q.Y., Ek M., Betts A. Modeling of land surface evaporation by four schemes and comparison with FIFE observations. J. Geophys. Res. 101:1996;7251-7277.
9. Cotton W.R., Lin M.-S., McAnelly R.L., Trembeck C. A composite model of mesoscale convective complexes. Mon. Wea. Rev. 117:1989;765-783.
10. Gallus W.A. Jr. Eta simulations of three extreme precipitation events: impact of resolution and choice of convective parameterization. Wea. Forecast. 14:1999;405-426.
11. Gallus W.A. Jr., Segal M. Impact of improved initialization of mesoscale features on convective system rainfall in 10-km Eta simulations. Wea. Forecast. 16:2001;680-696.
12. Hamill T.M. Hypothesis test for evaluating numerical precipitation forecasts. Wea. Forecast. 14:1999;155-167.
13. Janjic Z.I. The step-mountain eta coordinate model: further developments of the convection closure schemes. Mon. Wea. Rev. 122:1994;927-945.
14. Jankov I., Gallus W.A. Jr. MCS rainfall forecast accuracy as a function of large-scale forcing. Wea. Forecast. 2004;. in press.
15. Kain, J.S., 2004. The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization: an update. J. Appl. Meteorol. 43, 170-181.
16. Kain J.S., Fritsch J.M. The role of convective trigger function in numerical forecasts of mesoscale convective systems. Meteor. Atmos. Phys. 49:1993;93-106.
17. Kuo Y., Reed R.J., Liu Y. The ERICA IOP 5 Storm. Part III. Mesoscale cyclogenesis and precipitation parametrization. Mon. Wea. Rev. 124:1996;1409-1434.
18. Lorenz E.N. The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion. Tellus. 21:1969;289-307.
19. Maddox R.A. Large-scale meteorological conditions associated with midlatitude, mesoscale convective complexes. Mon. Wea. Rev. 111:1983;1475-1493.
20. McBride J.L., Ebert E.E. Verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts from operational numerical weather prediction models over Australia. Wea. Forecast. 15:2000;103-121.
21. Mesinger, F., 1998. Comparison of quantitative precipitation forecasts by the 48-, and 29-km Eta model: an update and possible implications. Preprints, 12th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Phoenix, AZ. Am. Meteor. Soc. pp. J22-J23.
22. Murphy H.A. The coefficients of correlation and determination as measures of performance in forecast verification. Wea. Forecast. 10:1995;681-688.
23. Rogers, E., et al., 1998. Changes to the NCEP operational Early Eta Analysis/Forecast System. NWS Tech. Procedures Bull 477, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service, 14 pp. [Available form national Weather Service, Office of Meteorology, 1325 East-West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910].
24. Rogers R.F., Fritsch J.M., Lambert W.C. A simple technique for using radar data in the dynamic initialization of a mesoscale model. Mon. Wea. Rev. 128:2000;2560-2574.
25. Schaefer J.T. The critical success index as an indicator of warning skill. Wea. Forecast. 5:1990;570-575.
26. Schwartz, B.E., Benjamin, S.G., 2000. Verification of RUC2 precipitation forecasts using the NCEP multisensor analysis. Preprints, Fourth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, Long Beach, CA. Am. Meteor. Soc. pp. 182-185.
27. Stensrud D.J. The importance of low-level jets to climate: a review. J. Climate. 9:1996;1698-1711.
28. Stensrud D.J., Fritsch J.M. Mesoscale convective systems in weakly forced large-scale environments. Part III. Numerical simulations and implications for operational forecasting. Mon. Wea. Rev. 122:1994;2084-2104.
29. Wang W., Seaman N.L. A comparison study of convective parameterization schemes in mesoscale model. Mon. Wea. Rev. 125:1997;252-278.
30. Watson, S., 2000. Evaluation of the Eta-32 during significant rainfall events. Master of Science Thesis, Saint Louis University, 99 pp.
31. Zhang F., Snyder C., Rotunno R. Mesoscale predictability of the Surprise snowstorm of 24-25 January 2000. Mon. Wea. Rev. 130:2002;1617-1632.