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Volumn 37, Issue 2, 2005, Pages

Why not parties? Electoral markets, party substitutes, and stalled democratization in Russia

(1)  Hale, Henry E a  

a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords


EID: 13544263511     PISSN: 00104159     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/20072880     Document Type: Review
Times cited : (31)

References (103)
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    • note
    • Operationally, what this study defines above as a "party" is formalized by the legal recognition of the ministry of justice of the right of the organization to nominate candidates officially in Duma elections.
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    • Party activists and party development in post soviet democracies
    • paper presented at the Boston, August 28-September 1
    • Ted Brader and Joshua A. Tucker, "The Emergence of Mass Partisanship in Russia, 1993-1996," American Journal of Political Science, 45 (January 2001); Thomas F. Klobucar and Arthur H. Miller, "Party Activists and Party Development in Post Soviet Democracies," paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, August 28-September 1, 2002; Stephen White, Richard Rose, and Ian McAllister, How Russia Votes (Chatham: Chatham House, 1997).
    • (2002) Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association
    • Klobucar, T.F.1    Miller, A.H.2
  • 58
    • 0035529089 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Chatham: Chatham House
    • Ted Brader and Joshua A. Tucker, "The Emergence of Mass Partisanship in Russia, 1993-1996," American Journal of Political Science, 45 (January 2001); Thomas F. Klobucar and Arthur H. Miller, "Party Activists and Party Development in Post Soviet Democracies," paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, August 28-September 1, 2002; Stephen White, Richard Rose, and Ian McAllister, How Russia Votes (Chatham: Chatham House, 1997).
    • (1997) How Russia Votes
    • White, S.1    Rose, R.2    McAllister, I.3
  • 59
    • 13544264786 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Miller et al.; White, Rose, and McAllister
    • Miller et al.; White, Rose, and McAllister.
  • 60
    • 0033040238 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Class, markets and partisanship in post-soviet Russia: 1993-96
    • Stephen Whitefield and Geoffrey Evans, "Class, Markets and Partisanship in Post-Soviet Russia: 1993-96," Electoral Studies, 18 (1999), 155-78; Whitefield, "Partisan and Party Divisions in Post-Communist Russia," in Brown, ed., pp. 235-43.
    • (1999) Electoral Studies , vol.18 , pp. 155-178
    • Whitefield, S.1    Evans, G.2
  • 61
    • 0033040238 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Brown, ed.
    • Stephen Whitefield and Geoffrey Evans, "Class, Markets and Partisanship in Post-Soviet Russia: 1993-96," Electoral Studies, 18 (1999), 155-78; Whitefield, "Partisan and Party Divisions in Post-Communist Russia," in Brown, ed., pp. 235-43.
    • Partisan and Party Divisions in Post-communist Russia , pp. 235-243
    • Whitefield1
  • 62
    • 13544276566 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press
    • Brader and Tucker; Timothy J. Colton, Transitional Citizens (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2000), pp. 112-15; Arthur H. Miller et al., "Emerging Party Systems in Post-Soviet Societies," Journal of Politics, 62 (May 2000), 455-90; Arthur H. Miller and Thomas F. Klobucar, "The Development of Party Identification in Post-Soviet Societies," American Journal of Political Science, 44 (October 2000).
    • (2000) Transitional Citizens , pp. 112-115
    • Brader1    Tucker2    Colton, T.J.3
  • 63
    • 0034419212 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Emerging party systems in post-soviet societies
    • May
    • Brader and Tucker; Timothy J. Colton, Transitional Citizens (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2000), pp. 112-15; Arthur H. Miller et al., "Emerging Party Systems in Post-Soviet Societies," Journal of Politics, 62 (May 2000), 455-90; Arthur H. Miller and Thomas F. Klobucar, "The Development of Party Identification in Post-Soviet Societies," American Journal of Political Science, 44 (October 2000).
    • (2000) Journal of Politics , vol.62 , pp. 455-490
    • Miller, A.H.1
  • 64
    • 0034374045 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The development of party identification in post-soviet societies
    • October
    • Brader and Tucker; Timothy J. Colton, Transitional Citizens (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2000), pp. 112-15; Arthur H. Miller et al., "Emerging Party Systems in Post-Soviet Societies," Journal of Politics, 62 (May 2000), 455-90; Arthur H. Miller and Thomas F. Klobucar, "The Development of Party Identification in Post-Soviet Societies," American Journal of Political Science, 44 (October 2000).
    • (2000) American Journal of Political Science , vol.44
    • Miller, A.H.1    Klobucar, T.F.2
  • 65
    • 13544262703 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Colton
    • Colton.
  • 66
    • 13544257494 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Klobucar and Miller
    • Klobucar and Miller.
  • 67
    • 0031876411 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Political conflict and institutional design
    • March-June
    • Thomas F. Remington, "Political Conflict and Institutional Design," Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, 14 (March-June 1998), 201-23; Steven S. Smith and Thomas Remington, The Politics of Institutional Choice (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001).
    • (1998) Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics , vol.14 , pp. 201-223
    • Remington, T.F.1
  • 68
    • 0031876411 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Princeton: Princeton University Press
    • Thomas F. Remington, "Political Conflict and Institutional Design," Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, 14 (March-June 1998), 201-23; Steven S. Smith and Thomas Remington, The Politics of Institutional Choice (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001).
    • (2001) The Politics of Institutional Choice
    • Smith, S.S.1    Remington, T.2
  • 70
    • 13544259022 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Colton; Miller et al.; Miller and Klobucar; Brader and Tucker
    • Colton; Miller et al.; Miller and Klobucar; Brader and Tucker.
  • 71
    • 13544268733 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Independents and party formation
    • Robert Moser, "Independents and Party Formation," Comparative Politics, 31 (1999), 148.
    • (1999) Comparative Politics , vol.31 , pp. 148
    • Moser, R.1
  • 72
    • 13544273547 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Not all regional leaders have this formal title, but it is used here for convenience. Hale, "Explaining Machine Politics in Russia's Regions"; Steven L. Solnick, "Russia's 'Transition,'" Social Research, 66 (Fall 1999), 789-824; Stoner-Weiss, "Central Weakness and Provincial Autonomy"; Daniel Treisman, After the Deluge (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1999).
    • Explaining Machine Politics in Russia's Regions
    • Hale1
  • 73
    • 0033196726 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Russia's 'transition,'
    • Fall
    • Not all regional leaders have this formal title, but it is used here for convenience. Hale, "Explaining Machine Politics in Russia's Regions"; Steven L. Solnick, "Russia's 'Transition,'" Social Research, 66 (Fall 1999), 789-824; Stoner-Weiss, "Central Weakness and Provincial Autonomy"; Daniel Treisman, After the Deluge (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1999).
    • (1999) Social Research , vol.66 , pp. 789-824
    • Solnick, S.L.1
  • 74
    • 0040479209 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Not all regional leaders have this formal title, but it is used here for convenience. Hale, "Explaining Machine Politics in Russia's Regions"; Steven L. Solnick, "Russia's 'Transition,'" Social Research, 66 (Fall 1999), 789-824; Stoner-Weiss, "Central Weakness and Provincial Autonomy"; Daniel Treisman, After the Deluge (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1999).
    • Central Weakness and Provincial Autonomy
    • Stoner-Weiss1
  • 75
    • 0005467596 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press
    • Not all regional leaders have this formal title, but it is used here for convenience. Hale, "Explaining Machine Politics in Russia's Regions"; Steven L. Solnick, "Russia's 'Transition,'" Social Research, 66 (Fall 1999), 789-824; Stoner-Weiss, "Central Weakness and Provincial Autonomy"; Daniel Treisman, After the Deluge (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1999).
    • (1999) After the Deluge
    • Treisman, D.1
  • 76
    • 0033367042 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Machine politics and institutionalized electorates
    • December
    • Henry E. Hale, "Machine Politics and Institutionalized Electorates," Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, 15 (December 1999), 70-110; Henry E. Hale, "Bashkortostan," in Colton and Hough, eds.; and Stoner-Weiss, "The Limited Reach of Russia's Party System."
    • (1999) Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics , vol.15 , pp. 70-110
    • Hale, H.E.1
  • 77
    • 0033367042 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Colton and Hough, eds.
    • Henry E. Hale, "Machine Politics and Institutionalized Electorates," Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, 15 (December 1999), 70-110; Henry E. Hale, "Bashkortostan," in Colton and Hough, eds.; and Stoner-Weiss, "The Limited Reach of Russia's Party System."
    • Bashkortostan
    • Hale, H.E.1
  • 78
    • 0033367042 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Henry E. Hale, "Machine Politics and Institutionalized Electorates," Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, 15 (December 1999), 70-110; Henry E. Hale, "Bashkortostan," in Colton and Hough, eds.; and Stoner-Weiss, "The Limited Reach of Russia's Party System."
    • The Limited Reach of Russia's Party System
    • Stoner-Weiss1
  • 79
    • 0003568437 scopus 로고
    • New Haven: Yale University Press
    • Samuel P. Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1968); Seymour Martin Lipset, "The Indispensability of Political Parties," Journal of Democracy, 11 (January 2000), 48-55; Mair.
    • (1968) Political order in Changing Societies
    • Huntington, S.P.1
  • 80
    • 24944578066 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The indispensability of political parties
    • January Mair
    • Samuel P. Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1968); Seymour Martin Lipset, "The Indispensability of Political Parties," Journal of Democracy, 11 (January 2000), 48-55; Mair.
    • (2000) Journal of Democracy , vol.11 , pp. 48-55
    • Lipset, S.M.1
  • 81
    • 13544258102 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • Observers were given only the general instruction, not specific criteria by which to make their assessments.
  • 82
    • 13544277167 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Radio Svoboda transcripts can be obtained at http://www.svoboda.org/archive/elections99.
    • Radio Svoboda
  • 83
    • 13544271170 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • Cases for which all three sources gave no indication were coded as "governor supports no one." Cases where only one source covered the district and where that source gave only an indication (not a definitive statement) of a gubernatorial endorsement were coded as gubernatorial support. A regression applying stricter coding criteria (dropping the kinds of cases mentioned in this note) obtained essentially the same findings as those reported here.
  • 84
    • 13544262704 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • The eighty-ninth region, Chechnya, and its district (the 225th) are excluded.
  • 85
    • 13544257491 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ithaca: Cornell University Press
    • Colton and Hough; Juliet Johnson, A Fistful of Rubles (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2000); Treisman, "Dollars and Democratization."
    • (2000) A Fistful of Rubles
    • Colton1    Hough2    Johnson, J.3
  • 86
    • 0040801961 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Colton and Hough; Juliet Johnson, A Fistful of Rubles (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2000); Treisman, "Dollars and Democratization."
    • Dollars and Democratization
    • Treisman1
  • 87
    • 0004077728 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dec. 21, ISI Emerging Markets
    • These sources were supplemented by reports in The Moscow Times, Dec. 21, 1999, ISI Emerging Markets; Nezavisimaia Gazeta, Oct. 19, 1999, ISI Emerging Markets; and anonymous regional analysts in personal communication with the author.
    • (1999) The Moscow Times
  • 88
    • 0004280838 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Oct. 19, ISI Emerging Markets
    • These sources were supplemented by reports in The Moscow Times, Dec. 21, 1999, ISI Emerging Markets; Nezavisimaia Gazeta, Oct. 19, 1999, ISI Emerging Markets; and anonymous regional analysts in personal communication with the author.
    • (1999) Nezavisimaia Gazeta
  • 89
    • 13544271169 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • In the author's judgment. A separate category for business representatives was included as a control.
  • 90
    • 13544267803 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • If there is any bias resulting from this coding process, it is likely to be in the direction of underesti mating the impact of politicized financial-industrial groups. There are three likely reasons for overlooking a politicized financial-industrial group candidate. The politicized financial-industrial group was very effective in keeping its secret; support was not large; and the district is remote. Candidates of the first type can be expected to be more effective than average since the reason for secrecy is that public suspicion of corruption is seen to be a negative. Instances of the second type do not affect the argument since it concentrates theoretically on cases of major support. As for the third, anecdotal evidence suggests that politicized financial-industrial groups operating in remote areas are more effective than elsewhere because there is less local money to put up resistance and because, if they do identify themselves, they can credibly promise to increase the region's wealth.
  • 91
    • 13544260877 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • Nineteen of the 2,226 candidates are dropped in this study because some values are missing.
  • 92
    • 13544252826 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • On the importance of personal candidate resources, see Smyth and Moser.
  • 93
    • 13544266584 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • PFIG is the abbreviation for politicized financial-industrial group.
  • 94
    • 0007116216 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spring
    • On tobit and why the coefficients it estimates can, with this particular kind of data, be read the same way as OLS coefficients, see Lee Sigelman and Langche Zeng, Political Analysis, 8 (Spring 2000), 167-82.
    • (2000) Political Analysis , vol.8 , pp. 167-182
    • Lee, S.1    Zeng, L.2
  • 95
    • 13544249974 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • These zero values also rule out the use of log ratios as done above.
  • 96
    • 13544269624 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • Naturally, since governors' candidates are party nominees in the other 104 districts, the shares of the vote for "governors' candidates" and for "party nominees" will vary together there. Only nineteen governors consistently backed the same party in such instances, though. When joint candidate totals are not counted as evidence of party strength but only of governors' strength, the correlation of course remains strongly negative. The very important question why governors support party candidates in some regions but not others is beyond the scope of this article but is treated by the author elsewhere. This article is interested in what happens in the majority of cases, where governors do not back party candidates.
  • 97
    • 0003847693 scopus 로고
    • Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press
    • Aldrich; Richard P. McCormick, The Second American Party System (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1966); Myron Weiner, Party-Building in a New Nation (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1967).
    • (1966) The Second American Party System
    • Aldrich1    McCormick, R.P.2
  • 98
    • 0006361817 scopus 로고
    • Chicago: University of Chicago Press
    • Aldrich; Richard P. McCormick, The Second American Party System (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1966); Myron Weiner, Party-Building in a New Nation (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1967).
    • (1967) Party-Building in a New Nation
    • Weiner, M.1
  • 99
    • 0002470878 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A statistical model for multiparty electoral data
    • March
    • Jonathan N. Katz and Gary King, "A Statistical Model for Multiparty Electoral Data," American Political Science Review, 93 (March 1999), 15-32;
    • (1999) American Political Science Review , vol.93 , pp. 15-32
    • Katz, J.N.1    King, G.2
  • 100
    • 1942457959 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An easy and accurate regression model for multiparty electoral data
    • Winter
    • Michael Tomz, Joshua Tucker, and Jason Wittenberg, "An Easy and Accurate Regression Model for Multiparty Electoral Data," Political Analysis, 10 (Winter 2002), 66-83.
    • (2002) Political Analysis , vol.10 , pp. 66-83
    • Tomz, M.1    Tucker, J.2    Wittenberg, J.3
  • 101
    • 13544259977 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • See the Stata.7 software manual, [U] 23.11, "obtaining robust variance estimates." The command used is cluster ( ). The cost of this method is a small loss of efficiency, expected to be negligible in this case given the large number of observations examined
    • See the Stata.7 software manual, [U] 23.11, "obtaining robust variance estimates." The command used is cluster ( ). The cost of this method is a small loss of efficiency, expected to be negligible in this case given the large number of observations examined.
  • 102
    • 0034409890 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Making the most of statistical analyses
    • April
    • Gary King, Michael Tomz, and Jason Wittenberg, "Making the Most of Statistical Analyses," American Journal of Political Science, 44 (April 2000), 347-61; Michael Tomz, Jason Wittenberg, and Gary King, CLARIFY: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results, Version 2.1, Stanford University, University of Wisconsin, and Harvard University, 2001, available at http://gking.harvard.edu.
    • (2000) American Journal of Political Science , vol.44 , pp. 347-361
    • King, G.1    Tomz, M.2    Wittenberg, J.3
  • 103
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    • Stanford University, University of Wisconsin, and Harvard University
    • Gary King, Michael Tomz, and Jason Wittenberg, "Making the Most of Statistical Analyses," American Journal of Political Science, 44 (April 2000), 347-61; Michael Tomz, Jason Wittenberg, and Gary King, CLARIFY: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results, Version 2.1, Stanford University, University of Wisconsin, and Harvard University, 2001, available at http://gking.harvard.edu.
    • (2001) CLARIFY: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results, Version 2.1
    • Tomz, M.1    Wittenberg, J.2    King, G.3


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