메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 127, Issue 9, 1999, Pages 1954-1966

Extreme daily rainfall events and their impact on ensemble forecasts of the Indian monsoon

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

MONSOON; RAINFALL; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 0343314911     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<1954:EDREAT>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (101)

References (61)
  • 2
    • 0038173190 scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of drought hazard
    • Barger, G. L., and H. C. S. Thom, 1949: Evaluation of drought hazard. Agron. J., 41, 519-526.
    • (1949) Agron. J. , vol.41 , pp. 519-526
    • Barger, G.L.1    Thom, H.C.S.2
  • 5
    • 0000133998 scopus 로고
    • An analysis of transformations
    • Box, G. E. P., and D. R. Cox, 1964: An analysis of transformations. J. Roy. Stat. Soc., B26, 211-243.
    • (1964) J. Roy. Stat. Soc. , vol.B26 , pp. 211-243
    • Box, G.E.P.1    Cox, D.R.2
  • 6
    • 0019366650 scopus 로고
    • Predictability of monsoons
    • J. Lighthill, Ed., Cambridge University Press
    • Charney, J. G., and J. Shukla, 1981: Predictability of monsoons. Monsoon Dynamics, J. Lighthill, Ed., Cambridge University Press, 99-110.
    • (1981) Monsoon Dynamics , pp. 99-110
    • Charney, J.G.1    Shukla, J.2
  • 7
    • 0000791135 scopus 로고
    • An operational objective analysis scheme
    • Cressman, G. P., 1959: An operational objective analysis scheme. Mon. Wea. Rev., 87, 329-340.
    • (1959) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.87 , pp. 329-340
    • Cressman, G.P.1
  • 8
    • 0032429928 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the characteristics of the rainfall events in the Sahel with a view to the analysis of climatic variability
    • D'Amato, N., and T. Lebel, 1998: On the characteristics of the rainfall events in the Sahel with a view to the analysis of climatic variability. Int. J. Climatol., 18, 955-974.
    • (1998) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.18 , pp. 955-974
    • D'Amato, N.1    Lebel, T.2
  • 9
    • 0013029707 scopus 로고
    • A quick method of choosing a transformation
    • Dolby, J. L., 1963: A quick method of choosing a transformation. Technometrics, 5, 317-334.
    • (1963) Technometrics , vol.5 , pp. 317-334
    • Dolby, J.L.1
  • 10
    • 0343430811 scopus 로고
    • Frequency distribution
    • H. E. Landsberg, Ed., World Survey of Climatology, Elsevier
    • Essenwanger, O. M., 1986: Frequency distribution. General Climatology: Elements of Statistical Analysis, H. E. Landsberg, Ed., World Survey of Climatology, Vol. 1B, Elsevier, 28-101.
    • (1986) General Climatology: Elements of Statistical Analysis , vol.1 B , pp. 28-101
    • Essenwanger, O.M.1
  • 11
    • 0032711981 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reduction of model systematic error by statistical correction for dynamical seasonal predictions
    • Feddersen, H., A. Navarra, and M. N. Ward, 1999: Reduction of model systematic error by statistical correction for dynamical seasonal predictions. J. Climate, 12, 1974-1989.
    • (1999) J. Climate , vol.12 , pp. 1974-1989
    • Feddersen, H.1    Navarra, A.2    Ward, M.N.3
  • 12
    • 0030778526 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Relations between interannual and intraseasonal monsoon variability as diagnosed from AMIP integrations
    • Ferranti, L., J. M. Slingo, T. N. Palmer, and B. J. Hoskins, 1997: Relations between interannual and intraseasonal monsoon variability as diagnosed from AMIP integrations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 1323-1357.
    • (1997) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.123 , pp. 1323-1357
    • Ferranti, L.1    Slingo, J.M.2    Palmer, T.N.3    Hoskins, B.J.4
  • 13
    • 0343866546 scopus 로고
    • The approximate normalization of a class of frequency distributions
    • Haldane, J. B. S., 1938: The approximate normalization of a class of frequency distributions. Biometrika, 29, 392-407.
    • (1938) Biometrika , vol.29 , pp. 392-407
    • Haldane, J.B.S.1
  • 14
    • 0001104165 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evalutation of Eta-RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts
    • Hamill, T. M., and S. J. Colucci, 1998: Evalutation of Eta-RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 711-724.
    • (1998) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.126 , pp. 711-724
    • Hamill, T.M.1    Colucci, S.J.2
  • 15
    • 0015108388 scopus 로고
    • Wet period precipitation and the gamma distribution
    • Ison, N. T., A. M. Feyerherm, and L. D. Bark. 1971: Wet period precipitation and the gamma distribution. J. Appl. Meteor., 10, 658-665.
    • (1971) J. Appl. Meteor. , vol.10 , pp. 658-665
    • Ison, N.T.1    Feyerherm, A.M.2    Bark, L.D.3
  • 16
    • 0020969805 scopus 로고
    • Statistical procedures for making inferences about precipitation changes simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model
    • Katz, R. W., 1983: Statistical procedures for making inferences about precipitation changes simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 2193-2201.
    • (1983) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.40 , pp. 2193-2201
    • Katz, R.W.1
  • 17
    • 0025209557 scopus 로고
    • Estimation of mean rain rate: Application to satellite observations
    • Kedem, B., L. S. Chiu, and G. R. North, 1990: Estimation of mean rain rate: Application to satellite observations. J. Geophys. Res., 95, 1965-1972.
    • (1990) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.95 , pp. 1965-1972
    • Kedem, B.1    Chiu, L.S.2    North, G.R.3
  • 18
    • 0009866423 scopus 로고
    • A probability distribution model for rain rate
    • _, H. Pavlopoulos, X. Guan, and D. A. Short, 1994: A probability distribution model for rain rate. J. Appl. Meteor., 33, 1486-1493.
    • (1994) J. Appl. Meteor. , vol.33 , pp. 1486-1493
    • Pavlopoulos, H.1    Guan, X.2    Short, D.A.3
  • 20
    • 0006528084 scopus 로고
    • Power spectra of large-scale disturbances of the Indian southwest monsoon
    • Keshavamurty, R. N., 1973: Power spectra of large-scale disturbances of the Indian southwest monsoon. Ind. J. Meteor. Geophys., 24, 117-124.
    • (1973) Ind. J. Meteor. Geophys. , vol.24 , pp. 117-124
    • Keshavamurty, R.N.1
  • 22
    • 0029480142 scopus 로고
    • Synoptic scale disturbances of Indian summer monsoon as simulated in a high resolution climate model
    • Lal, M., L. Bengtsson, U. Cubasch, M. Esch, and U. Schlese, 1995: Synoptic scale disturbances of Indian summer monsoon as simulated in a high resolution climate model. Climate Res., 5, 243-258.
    • (1995) Climate Res. , vol.5 , pp. 243-258
    • Lal, M.1    Bengtsson, L.2    Cubasch, U.3    Esch, M.4    Schlese, U.5
  • 23
    • 0030405159 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Resistant, robust and non-parametric techniques for the analysis of climate data: Theory and examples, including applications to historical radiosonde station data
    • Lanzante, J. R., 1996: Resistant, robust and non-parametric techniques for the analysis of climate data: Theory and examples, including applications to historical radiosonde station data. Int. J. Climatol., 16, 1197-1226.
    • (1996) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.16 , pp. 1197-1226
    • Lanzante, J.R.1
  • 24
    • 0001016629 scopus 로고
    • Predictability of climate
    • Leith, C. E., 1978: Predictability of climate. Nature, 276, 352-355.
    • (1978) Nature , vol.276 , pp. 352-355
    • Leith, C.E.1
  • 25
    • 0000241853 scopus 로고
    • Deterministic nonperiodic flow
    • Lorenz, E. N., 1963: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141.
    • (1963) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.20 , pp. 130-141
    • Lorenz, E.N.1
  • 26
    • 0000248457 scopus 로고
    • Estimates of the natural variability of time-averaged sea-level pressure
    • Madden, R. A., 1976: Estimates of the natural variability of time-averaged sea-level pressure. Mon. Wea. Rev., 104, 942-952.
    • (1976) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.104 , pp. 942-952
    • Madden, R.A.1
  • 27
    • 0009610387 scopus 로고
    • Gamma distribution probability model for Asian summer monsoon monthly rainfall
    • Mooley, D. A., 1973a: Gamma distribution probability model for Asian summer monsoon monthly rainfall. Mon. Wea. Rev., 101, 160-176.
    • (1973) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.101 , pp. 160-176
    • Mooley, D.A.1
  • 28
    • 0342560881 scopus 로고
    • An estimate of the distribution and stability period of the parameters of the gamma probability model applied to monthly rainfall over Southeast Asia during the summer monsoon
    • _, 1973b: An estimate of the distribution and stability period of the parameters of the gamma probability model applied to monthly rainfall over Southeast Asia during the summer monsoon. Mon. Wea. Rev., 101, 884-890.
    • (1973) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.101 , pp. 884-890
  • 29
    • 0038173124 scopus 로고
    • ESSA Tech. Rep. 5, Environmental Data Service, Silver Springs, MD, Available from U. S. Department of Commerce, Springfield, VA 22161
    • _, and H. L. Crutcher, 1968: An application of gamma distribution function to Indian rainfall. ESSA Tech. Rep. 5, Environmental Data Service, Silver Springs, MD, 47 pp. [Available from U. S. Department of Commerce, Springfield, VA 22161.]
    • (1968) An Application of Gamma Distribution Function to Indian Rainfall
    • Crutcher, H.L.1
  • 30
    • 0343866543 scopus 로고
    • Statistical distribution of pentad rainfall over India during monsoon season
    • _, and G. Appa Rao, 1970: Statistical distribution of pentad rainfall over India during monsoon season. Indian J. Meteor. Geophys., 21, 219-230.
    • (1970) Indian J. Meteor. Geophys. , vol.21 , pp. 219-230
    • Appa Rao, G.1
  • 31
    • 0342560882 scopus 로고
    • Distribution function for seasonal and annual rainfall over India
    • _, and _, 1971: Distribution function for seasonal and annual rainfall over India. Mon. Wea. Rev., 99, 796-799.
    • (1971) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.99 , pp. 796-799
  • 32
    • 0021639922 scopus 로고
    • Fluctuations in all-India summer monsoon rainfall during 1871-1978
    • _, and B. Parthasarathy, 1984: Fluctuations in all-India summer monsoon rainfall during 1871-1978. Climate Change, 6, 287-301.
    • (1984) Climate Change , vol.6 , pp. 287-301
    • Parthasarathy, B.1
  • 33
    • 0031200813 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Development of a relationship between station and grid-box rainday frequencies for climate model evaluation
    • Osborn, T. J., and M. Hulme, 1997: Development of a relationship between station and grid-box rainday frequencies for climate model evaluation. J. Climate, 10, 1885-1908.
    • (1997) J. Climate , vol.10 , pp. 1885-1908
    • Osborn, T.J.1    Hulme, M.2
  • 34
    • 0019728762 scopus 로고
    • On the study of a probability distribution for precipitation totals
    • Öztürk, A., 1981: On the study of a probability distribution for precipitation totals. J. Appl. Meteor., 20, 1499-1505.
    • (1981) J. Appl. Meteor. , vol.20 , pp. 1499-1505
    • Öztürk, A.1
  • 35
    • 0001797041 scopus 로고
    • Chaos and predictability in forecasting the monsoons
    • Palmer, T. N., 1994: Chaos and predictability in forecasting the monsoons. Proc. Indian Natl. Sci. Acad., 60A, 57-66.
    • (1994) Proc. Indian Natl. Sci. Acad. , vol.60 A , pp. 57-66
    • Palmer, T.N.1
  • 36
    • 51249173327 scopus 로고
    • Long term variability of the Indian summer monsoon and related parameters
    • Pant, G. B., K. Rupa Kumar, B. Parthasarathy, and H. P. Borgaonkar, 1988: Long term variability of the Indian summer monsoon and related parameters. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 5, 469-481.
    • (1988) Adv. Atmos. Sci. , vol.5 , pp. 469-481
    • Pant, G.B.1    Rupa Kumar, K.2    Parthasarathy, B.3    Borgaonkar, H.P.4
  • 40
    • 0004214316 scopus 로고
    • International Geophysics Series, Academic Press
    • Ramage, C. S., 1971: Monsoon Meteorology. International Geophysics Series, Vol. 15, Academic Press, 296 pp.
    • (1971) Monsoon Meteorology , vol.15
    • Ramage, C.S.1
  • 42
    • 0031395119 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Breaks in the Asian monsoon: The influence of Southern Hemisphere weather systems
    • Rodwell, M. J., 1997: Breaks in the Asian monsoon: The influence of Southern Hemisphere weather systems. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 2597-2611.
    • (1997) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.54 , pp. 2597-2611
    • Rodwell, M.J.1
  • 43
    • 0002561964 scopus 로고
    • Estimating the significance of seasonal prediction amounts using approximations of the inverse gamma function over an extended range
    • Preprints, Hot Springs, AR, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
    • Ropelewski, C. F., and J. B. Jalickee, 1983: Estimating the significance of seasonal prediction amounts using approximations of the inverse gamma function over an extended range. Preprints, Eighth Conf. on Probability and Statistics in Atmospheric Sciences, Hot Springs, AR, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 125-129.
    • (1983) Eighth Conf. on Probability and Statistics in Atmospheric Sciences , pp. 125-129
    • Ropelewski, C.F.1    Jalickee, J.B.2
  • 44
    • 0000158115 scopus 로고
    • The analysis and display of real-time surface climate data
    • _, J. E. Janowiak, and M. S. Halpert, 1985: The analysis and display of real-time surface climate data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 1101-1106.
    • (1985) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.113 , pp. 1101-1106
    • Janowiak, J.E.1    Halpert, M.S.2
  • 45
    • 0342560876 scopus 로고
    • On the nature of frequency distribution of precipitation in India during monsoon months June to September
    • Sankaranarayanan, D., 1933: On the nature of frequency distribution of precipitation in India during monsoon months June to September. Indian Meteor. Dept. Sci. Notes, 5, 97-107.
    • (1933) Indian Meteor. Dept. Sci. Notes , vol.5 , pp. 97-107
    • Sankaranarayanan, D.1
  • 47
    • 0009816103 scopus 로고
    • The potential for long-range prediction of precipitation over India for the Southwest monsoon season: An analysis of variance approach
    • Galway, Ireland, Steering Committee for the International Meetings on Statistical Climatology
    • _, _, R. A. Madden, and R. W. Katz, 1995: The potential for long-range prediction of precipitation over India for the Southwest monsoon season: An analysis of variance approach. Proc. Sixth Int. Meeting on Statistical Climatology, Galway, Ireland, Steering Committee for the International Meetings on Statistical Climatology, 475-478.
    • (1995) Proc. Sixth Int. Meeting on Statistical Climatology , pp. 475-478
    • Madden, R.A.1    Katz, R.W.2
  • 48
    • 0342560874 scopus 로고
    • Note on the sample size to achieve normality for estimators for the gamma distribution
    • Shenton, L. R., and K. O. Bowman, 1973: Note on the sample size to achieve normality for estimators for the gamma distribution. Mon. Wea. Rev., 101, 891-892.
    • (1973) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.101 , pp. 891-892
    • Shenton, L.R.1    Bowman, K.O.2
  • 49
    • 0000340216 scopus 로고
    • Some aspects of the life history, structure and movement of monsoon depressions
    • Sikka, D. R., 1977: Some aspects of the life history, structure and movement of monsoon depressions. Pure Appl. Geophys., 115, 1501-1529.
    • (1977) Pure Appl. Geophys. , vol.115 , pp. 1501-1529
    • Sikka, D.R.1
  • 50
    • 0342560873 scopus 로고
    • Use of the gamma distribution in single-cloud rainfall analysis
    • Simpson, J., 1972: Use of the gamma distribution in single-cloud rainfall analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 100, 309-312.
    • (1972) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.100 , pp. 309-312
    • Simpson, J.1
  • 51
    • 0030405198 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Grid box or grid point: What type of data do GCMs deliver to climate impacts researchers?
    • Skelly, W. C., and A. Henderson-Sellers, 1996: Grid box or grid point: What type of data do GCMs deliver to climate impacts researchers? Int. J. Climatol., 16, 1079-1086.
    • (1996) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.16 , pp. 1079-1086
    • Skelly, W.C.1    Henderson-Sellers, A.2
  • 52
    • 0025235920 scopus 로고
    • Some aspects of daily rainfall distributions over India during southwest monsoon season
    • Soman, M. K., and K. Krishna Kumar, 1990: Some aspects of daily rainfall distributions over India during southwest monsoon season. Int. J. Climatol., 10, 299-311.
    • (1990) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.10 , pp. 299-311
    • Soman, M.K.1    Krishna Kumar, K.2
  • 53
    • 0031414113 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Correlation of spatial climate/weather maps and the advantages of using the Mahalanobis metric in predictions
    • Stephenson, D. B., 1997: Correlation of spatial climate/weather maps and the advantages of using the Mahalanobis metric in predictions. Tellus, 49A, 513-527.
    • (1997) Tellus , vol.49 A , pp. 513-527
    • Stephenson, D.B.1
  • 54
    • 0009848903 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Simulation of the Asian summer monsoon and its dependence on model horizontal resolution
    • _, F. Chauvin, and J. F. Royer, 1998a: Simulation of the Asian summer monsoon and its dependence on model horizontal resolution. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 76, 237-265.
    • (1998) J. Meteor. Soc. Japan , vol.76 , pp. 237-265
    • Chauvin, F.1    Royer, J.F.2
  • 55
    • 85034539630 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Note de Travail de Météo-France GMGEC 63, Available from Dr. D. B. Stephenson, Laboratoire de Statistique et Probabilities, Université Paul Sabatier, 118, Route de Narbonne, F-31062 Toulouse Cedex, France
    • _, K. Rupa Kumar, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, J. F. Royer, and F. Chauvin, 1998b: Extreme daily rainfall events and their impact on the potential predictability of the Indian monsoon. Note de Travail de Météo-France GMGEC 63, 41 pp. [Available from Dr. D. B. Stephenson, Laboratoire de Statistique et Probabilities, Université Paul Sabatier, 118, Route de Narbonne, F-31062 Toulouse Cedex, France.]
    • (1998) Extreme Daily Rainfall Events and Their Impact on the Potential Predictability of the Indian Monsoon
    • Rupa Kumar, K.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2    Royer, J.F.3    Chauvin, F.4
  • 56
    • 0001643727 scopus 로고
    • A note on the gamma distribution
    • Thom, H. C. S., 1958: A note on the gamma distribution. Mon. Wea. Rev., 86, 117-122.
    • (1958) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.86 , pp. 117-122
    • Thom, H.C.S.1
  • 57
    • 0001065501 scopus 로고
    • On the comparative anatomy of transformations
    • Tukey, J. W., 1955: On the comparative anatomy of transformations. Ann. Math. Stat., 28, 602-632.
    • (1955) Ann. Math. Stat. , vol.28 , pp. 602-632
    • Tukey, J.W.1
  • 58
    • 84987266075 scopus 로고
    • A statistical distribution function of wide applicability
    • Weibull, W., 1951: A statistical distribution function of wide applicability. J. Appl. Mech., 18, 293-297.
    • (1951) J. Appl. Mech. , vol.18 , pp. 293-297
    • Weibull, W.1
  • 59
    • 0001288213 scopus 로고
    • Retrieval of monthly rainfall indices from microwave radiometeric measurements using probability distribution functions
    • Wilheit, T. T., A. T. C. Chang, and L. Chiu, 1991: Retrieval of monthly rainfall indices from microwave radiometeric measurements using probability distribution functions. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 8, 118-136.
    • (1991) J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. , vol.8 , pp. 118-136
    • Wilheit, T.T.1    Chang, A.T.C.2    Chiu, L.3
  • 60
    • 0024483771 scopus 로고
    • Rainfall intensity, the Weibull distribution, and estimation of daily surface runoff
    • Wilks, D. S., 1989: Rainfall intensity, the Weibull distribution, and estimation of daily surface runoff. J. Appl. Meteor., 28, 52-58.
    • (1989) J. Appl. Meteor. , vol.28 , pp. 52-58
    • Wilks, D.S.1
  • 61
    • 0017432235 scopus 로고
    • Weibull distribution, iterative likelihood techniques and hydrometeorological data
    • Wong, R. K. W., 1977: Weibull distribution, iterative likelihood techniques and hydrometeorological data. J. Appl. Meteor., 16, 1360-1364.
    • (1977) J. Appl. Meteor. , vol.16 , pp. 1360-1364
    • Wong, R.K.W.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.