Correlation of spatial climate/weather maps and the advantages of using the Mahalanobis metric in predictions

Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

Volumn 49, Issue 5, 1997, Pages 513-527

  Stephenson, D B ^a  

^a CENTRE NATIONAL DE RECHERCHES MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE PREDICTION; MAHALANOBIS METRIC; WEATHER MAP;

EID: 0031414113     PISSN: 02806495     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v49i5.14687     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Barnett, T. P. and Preisendorfer, R. W. 1987. Origins and levels of monthly and seasonal forecast skill for United States surface air temperatures determined by canonical correlation analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev. 115, 1825-1850.
2. Barnett, T. P. and Schlesinger, M. E. 1987. Detecting changes in global climate induced by greenhouse gases, J. Geophys. Res. 92, 14772-14780.
3. Bell, T. L. 1982. Optimal weighting of data to detect climate change: application to the carbon dioxide problem. J. Geophys. Res. 87, 11161-11170.
4. Bell, T. L. 1986. Theory of optimal weighting to detect climate change. J. Atmos. Sci. 43, 1694-1710.
5. Besse, P. 1992. PCA stability and choice of dimensionality. Statistics and Probability Letters 13, 405-410.
6. Bronshtein, I. N. and Semendyayev, K. A. 1985. Handbook of mathematics. Van Nostrand Reinhold Company, Inc., New York.
7. Chen, W. Y. 1982. Assessment of Southern Oscillation sea-level pressure indices. Mon. Wea. Rev. 110, 800-807.
8. Chu, P. S. and Katz, R. W. 1985. Modeling and forecasting the Southern Oscillation: A time domain approach. Mon. Wea. Rev. 113, 1876-1888.
9. Elliott, W. P. and Angell, J. K. 1988. Evidence for changes in Southern Oscillation relationships during the last 100 years. J. Climate 1, 729-737.
10. Fraedrich, K., Ziehmann, C. and Sielmann, F. 1995 Estimates of spatial degrees of freedom. J. Climate 8, 361-369.
11. Gutzler, D. S. and Shukla, J. 1984. Analogs in the wintertime 500mb height field. J. Atmos. Sci. 41, 177-189.
12. Hasselmann, K. 1976. Stochastic climate models. Part I: Theory. Tellus 28, 473-485.
13. Hasselmann, K. 1993. Optimal Fingerprints for the Detection of Time-dependent Climate Change. J. Climate 6, 1957-1971.
14. Horel, J. D. 1985. Persistence of the 500 mb height field during Northern Hemisphere Winter. Mon. Wea. Rev. 113, 2030-2042.
15. Jolliffe, I. T. 1986. Principal component analysis. Springer Verlag, New York.
16. Karoly, D. J., Cohen, J. A., Meehl, G. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Oort, A. H., Stouffer, R. J. and Wetherald, R. T. 1994. An example of fingerprint detection of greenhouse climate change. Climate Dyn. 10, 97-105.
17. Kendall, M., Stuart, A. and Ord, J. K. 1983. The advanced theory of statistics, 4th edition. Griffin Press, High Wycombe, UK.
18. Lorenz, E. N., 1969. Atmospheric predictability as revealed by naturally occurring analogues. Tellus 26, 636-646.
19. Mardia, K. V. 1970. Measures of multivariate skewness and kurtosis with applications. Biometrika 57, 519-530.
20. Mardia, K. V. 1974. Applications of some measures of multivariate skewness and kurtosis in testing normality and robustness studies. Sankhyā: The Indian Journal of Statistics 36, 115-128.
21. Mardia, K. V., Kent, J. T. and Bibby, J. M. 1979. Mulitvariate analysis. Academic Press Limited, London.
22. Marshall, J. and Molteni, F. 1993. Towards a dynamical understanding of planetary-scale flow regimes. J. Atmos. Sci. 50, 1792-1818.
23. Menke, W. 1989. Geophysical data analysis: discrete inverse theory. Academic Press, Inc., San Diego.
24. Miyakoda, K., Hembree, G. D., Strickler, R. F. and Shulman, I. 1972. Cumulative results of extended forecast experiments (I). Model performance for winter cases. Mon. Wea. Rev. 100, 836-855.
25. Palmer, T. N. and Anderson, D. L. T. 1994. The prospects for seasonal forecasting - A review paper. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 120, 755-793.
26. Palmer, T. N., Gelaro, R., Barkmeijer, J. and Buizza, R. 1997. Singular vectors, metrics and adaptive observations. J. Atmos. Sci., in press.
27. Pasmanter, R. A., 1996. Metric structures of in viscid flows. Chaotic dynamics.
28. Pearson, E. S. and Hartley, H. O. 1972. Biometrika tables for statisticians, vol. 2. Cambridge University Press.
29. Ropelewski, C. F. and Jones, P. D. 1987. An extension of the Tahiti-Darwin Southern Oscillation Index. Mon. Wea. Rev. 115, 2161-2165.
30. Santer, B. D., Taylor, K. E., Wigley, T. M. L., Penner, J. E., Jones, P. D. and Cubasch, U. 1995. Towards the detection and attribution of an anthropogenic effect on climate. Climate Dyn. 12, 77-100.
31. Simmons, A. J., Mureau, R. and Petroliagis, T. 1995. Error growth and estimates of predictability from the ECMWF forecasting system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 121, 1739-1771.
32. Tett, S. F. B., Mitchell, J. F. B., Parker, D. E. and Allen, M. 1996. Human influence on the atmospheric vertical temperature structure: detection and observations.Science 274, 1170-1173.
33. Thacker, W. C. 1996. Climate fingerprints, patterns, and indices. J. Climate 9, 2259-2261.
34. Thacker, W. C. and Lewandowicz, R. 1996. Climate indices, principal components, and the Gauss-Markov theorem. J. Climate 9, 1942-1958.
35. Toth, Z. 1991a. Intercomparison of circulation similarity measures. Mon. Wea. Rev. 119, 55-64.
36. Toth, Z. 1991b. Circulation patterns in phase space: a multinormal distribution? Mon. Wea. Rev. 119, 1501-1511.
37. Toth, Z. 1993. Preferred and unpreferred circulation types in the northern hemisphere wintertime phase space. J. Atmos. Sci. 50, 2868-2888.
38. Toth, Z. 1995. Degrees of freedom in northern hemisphere circulation data. Tellus 47A, 457-472.
39. Trenberth, K. E., 1984. Signal versus noise in the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev. 112, 326-332.
40. Trenberth, K. E. and Hoar, T. J. 1996. The 1990-95 El Niño-Southern Oscillation event: longest on record. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 57-60.
41. Trenberth, K. E. and Shea, D. J. 1987. On the evolution of the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev. 115, 3078-3096.
42. Van den Dool, H. M. 1994. Searching for analogues, how long must we wait? Tellus 46A, 314-324.
43. Van den Dool, H. M. and Chervin, R. M. 1986. A comparison of month-to-month persistence of anomalies in a general circulation model and in the earth's atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 1454-1466.
44. Wallace, J. M., Cheng, X. and Sun, D. 1991. Does low-frequency atmospheric variability exhibit regime-like behavior? Tellus 43AB, 16-26.
45. Wallace, J. M. and Gutzler, D. 1981. Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the northern hemisphere winter. Mon. Wea. Rev. 109, 784-812.
46. Wright, P. B. 1985. The Southern Oscillation: An oceanatmosphere feedback system? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 66, 398-412.
47. Zwiers, F. W. 1987. Statistical considerations for climate experiments. Part II: Multivariate tests. J. Clim. App. Meteorology 26, 477-487.