Republican gains in the house in the 1994 elections: Class polarization in American politics

Political Science Quarterly

Volumn 115, Issue 1, 2000, Pages 93-113

  Stonecash, Jeffrey M ^a   Mariani, Mack D ^a  

^a NONE

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[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 0040185770     PISSN: 00323195     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/2658035     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. Walter Dean Burnham, for instance, called the 1994 election "very probably the most consequential off-year election in (exactly) one hundred years" and noted "the shape of American politics will very probably never the same again." See "Realignment Lives: The 1994 Earthquake and its Implications" in C. Campbell and B. A. Rockman, eds., The Clinton Presidency: Early Appraisals (Chatham, NJ: Chatham House, 1995), 363.
2. Most scholarly examinations of the 1994 election ignore the effect of class entirely, though Burnham does sketch the initial outlines of a class-based view of the election in ibid., 386-388. In this view of a newly realigned electorate, the new "core" constituency made up of the "Great White [Protestant] Middle" struggles for political power with the new "periphery" made up of the economically disfavored.
3. On the varied impact of Republican strategies to nationalize the 1994 congressional elections, see Gary C. Jacobson, "The 1994 House Election in Perspective," Political Science Quarterly 111 (Summer 1996): 203-223; Paul Frymer et al., "Party Elites, Ideological Voters and Divided Party Government," Legislative Studies Quarterly 22 (May 1997): 195-216; and Andrew J. Polsky, "The 1996 Elections and the Logic of Regime Politics," Polity 30 (Fall 1997): 153-166.
4. On the varied impact of Republican strategies to nationalize the 1994 congressional elections, see Gary C. Jacobson, "The 1994 House Election in Perspective," Political Science Quarterly 111 (Summer 1996): 203-223; Paul Frymer et al., "Party Elites, Ideological Voters and Divided Party Government," Legislative Studies Quarterly 22 (May 1997): 195-216; and Andrew J. Polsky, "The 1996 Elections and the Logic of Regime Politics," Polity 30 (Fall 1997): 153-166.
5. On the varied impact of Republican strategies to nationalize the 1994 congressional elections, see Gary C. Jacobson, "The 1994 House Election in Perspective," Political Science Quarterly 111 (Summer 1996): 203-223; Paul Frymer et al., "Party Elites, Ideological Voters and Divided Party Government," Legislative Studies Quarterly 22 (May 1997): 195-216; and Andrew J. Polsky, "The 1996 Elections and the Logic of Regime Politics," Polity 30 (Fall 1997): 153-166.
6. On the impact of numerous short-term factors, including the effect of voters' views on President Clinton, see Harold W. Stanley, "The Parties, the President, and the 1994 Midterm Elections" in Campbell and Rockman, eds., The Clinton Presidency, 188-211.
7. For views on the varied impact of mobilization and turnout, see J. Christophe Soper, "The Politics of Pragmatism: The Christian Right and the 1994 Elections" in Philip A. Klinkner, ed., Midterm: The Elections in 1994 in Context (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1996), 115-124; John C. Green, "The Christian Right and the 1994 Elections: a View from the States," PS: Political Science and Politics 28 (March 1995): 5-10,
8. For views on the varied impact of mobilization and turnout, see J. Christophe Soper, "The Politics of Pragmatism: The Christian Right and the 1994 Elections" in Philip A. Klinkner, ed., Midterm: The Elections in 1994 in Context (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1996), 115-124; John C. Green, "The Christian Right and the 1994 Elections: a View from the States," PS: Political Science and Politics 28 (March 1995): 5-10,
9. and the accompanying case studies in that volume; and Richard A. Harris, "The Era of Big Government Lives," Polity 30 (Fall 1997): 187-197.
10. Gary C. Jacobson, "The 1994 House Elections in Perspective" in Klinkner, ed., Midterm, 1-20.
11. The two approaches are well described in Alan Abramowitz, "The End of the Democratic Era? 1994 and the Future of Congressional Election Research," Political Research Quarterly 489 (December 1995): 873-889.
12. See Abramowitz, "End of the Democratic Era," 873-889; and Everett Carll Ladd, "Nobody's Buying," The New Democrat, January/February, 1998, 10-12, on increasing conservatism and Republicanism in the electorate.
13. See Abramowitz, "End of the Democratic Era," 873-889; and Everett Carll Ladd, "Nobody's Buying," The New Democrat, January/February, 1998, 10-12, on increasing conservatism and Republicanism in the electorate.
14. On the possibility of a Republican realignment in the South, see Burnham, "Realignment Lives"; Campbell "Presidential Pulse"; John J. Coleman, "The Importance of Being Republican: Forecasting Party Fortunes in House Midterm Elections," Journal of Politics 59 (May 1997): 497-519; and Stanley, "The Parties, The President, and the 1994 Midterm Elections."
15. On the possibility of a Republican realignment in the South, see Burnham, "Realignment Lives"; Campbell "Presidential Pulse"; John J. Coleman, "The Importance of Being Republican: Forecasting Party Fortunes in House Midterm Elections," Journal of Politics 59 (May 1997): 497-519; and Stanley, "The Parties, The President, and the 1994 Midterm Elections."
16. On the possibility of a Republican realignment in the South, see Burnham, "Realignment Lives"; Campbell "Presidential Pulse"; John J. Coleman, "The Importance of Being Republican: Forecasting Party Fortunes in House Midterm Elections," Journal of Politics 59 (May 1997): 497-519; and Stanley, "The Parties, The President, and the 1994 Midterm Elections."
17. On the possibility of a Republican realignment in the South, see Burnham, "Realignment Lives"; Campbell "Presidential Pulse"; John J. Coleman, "The Importance of Being Republican: Forecasting Party Fortunes in House Midterm Elections," Journal of Politics 59 (May 1997): 497-519; and Stanley, "The Parties, The President, and the 1994 Midterm Elections."
18. For this argument, see Thomas B. Edsall and Mary D. Edsall, Chain Reaction (New York: W. W. Norton, 1991); Stanley D. Greenberg, Middle Class Dreams (New York: Times Books, 1995), 23-54; and Ruy A. Teixeira and Joel Rogers, "Volatile Voters: Declining Living Standards and Non-College-Educated Whites," Working Paper No. 116, 8 August 1996 (Washington, DC: Economic Policy Institute),
19. For this argument, see Thomas B. Edsall and Mary D. Edsall, Chain Reaction (New York: W. W. Norton, 1991); Stanley D. Greenberg, Middle Class Dreams (New York: Times Books, 1995), 23-54; and Ruy A. Teixeira and Joel Rogers, "Volatile Voters: Declining Living Standards and Non-College-Educated Whites," Working Paper No. 116, 8 August 1996 (Washington, DC: Economic Policy Institute),
20. For this argument, see Thomas B. Edsall and Mary D. Edsall, Chain Reaction (New York: W. W. Norton, 1991); Stanley D. Greenberg, Middle Class Dreams (New York: Times Books, 1995), 23-54; and Ruy A. Teixeira and Joel Rogers, "Volatile Voters: Declining Living Standards and Non-College-Educated Whites," Working Paper No. 116, 8 August 1996 (Washington, DC: Economic Policy Institute),
21. For a skeptical view of these arguments, see Grant Reeher and Joseph Cammarano, "In Search of the Angry White Male: Gender, Race, and Issues in the 1994 Elections" in Klinkner, ed., Midterm, 125-136.
22. For consideration of 1994 as a "delayed" realignment, see Walter Dean Burnham, "Realignment Lives"; Andrew E. Busch, "Political Science and the 1994 Elections: an Exploratory Essay," PS: Political Science and Politics 28 (December 1995): 708-710; and James E. Campbell, "The Presidential Pulse and the 1994 Midterm Congressional Elections," Journal of Politics 59 (August 1997): 830-857.
23. For consideration of 1994 as a "delayed" realignment, see Walter Dean Burnham, "Realignment Lives"; Andrew E. Busch, "Political Science and the 1994 Elections: an Exploratory Essay," PS: Political Science and Politics 28 (December 1995): 708-710; and James E. Campbell, "The Presidential Pulse and the 1994 Midterm Congressional Elections," Journal of Politics 59 (August 1997): 830-857.
24. For consideration of 1994 as a "delayed" realignment, see Walter Dean Burnham, "Realignment Lives"; Andrew E. Busch, "Political Science and the 1994 Elections: an Exploratory Essay," PS: Political Science and Politics 28 (December 1995): 708-710; and James E. Campbell, "The Presidential Pulse and the 1994 Midterm Congressional Elections," Journal of Politics 59 (August 1997): 830-857.
25. Long-term and short-term explanations of the 1994 elections need not be mutually exclusive. See in particular, Everett Carll Ladd, "The 1994 Congressional Elections: The Postindustrial Realignment Continues," Political Science Quarterly 110 (Spring 1995): 1-23; and Norman J. Ornstein and Amy L. Schenkenberg, "The 1995 Congress: The First Hundred Days and Beyond," Political Science Quarterly 110 (Summer 1995). See also Busch, "Political Science and the 1994 Elections"; and Polsky, "The 1996 Elections."
26. Long-term and short-term explanations of the 1994 elections need not be mutually exclusive. See in particular, Everett Carll Ladd, "The 1994 Congressional Elections: The Postindustrial Realignment Continues," Political Science Quarterly 110 (Spring 1995): 1-23; and Norman J. Ornstein and Amy L. Schenkenberg, "The 1995 Congress: The First Hundred Days and Beyond," Political Science Quarterly 110 (Summer 1995). See also Busch, "Political Science and the 1994 Elections"; and Polsky, "The 1996 Elections."
27. Long-term and short-term explanations of the 1994 elections need not be mutually exclusive. See in particular, Everett Carll Ladd, "The 1994 Congressional Elections: The Postindustrial Realignment Continues," Political Science Quarterly 110 (Spring 1995): 1-23; and Norman J. Ornstein and Amy L. Schenkenberg, "The 1995 Congress: The First Hundred Days and Beyond," Political Science Quarterly 110 (Summer 1995). See also Busch, "Political Science and the 1994 Elections"; and Polsky, "The 1996 Elections."
28. Long-term and short-term explanations of the 1994 elections need not be mutually exclusive. See in particular, Everett Carll Ladd, "The 1994 Congressional Elections: The Postindustrial Realignment Continues," Political Science Quarterly 110 (Spring 1995): 1-23; and Norman J. Ornstein and Amy L. Schenkenberg, "The 1995 Congress: The First Hundred Days and Beyond," Political Science Quarterly 110 (Summer 1995). See also Busch, "Political Science and the 1994 Elections"; and Polsky, "The 1996 Elections."
29. Mary C. Brennan, Turning Right in the Sixties: The Conservative Capture of the GOP (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1995).
30. For a review of the development of this approach, see Jeffrey M. Stonecash, Class, Party and American Politics (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 2000), chap. 7.
31. Paul R. Abramson, John H. Aldrich, and David W. Rhode, Change and Continuity in the 1992 Elections (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1995), 146 and 152-153; John H. Flanigan and Nancy H. Zingale, Political Behavior of the American Electorate (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1994), 104-105; Everett Carll Ladd, "Political Parties and Presidential Elections in the Postindustrial Era" in Harvey L. Schantz, ed., American Presidential Elections (Albany: SUNY Press, 1996), 204-206; and David G. Lawrence, The Collapse of the Democratic Presidential Majority (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1997), 40.
32. Paul R. Abramson, John H. Aldrich, and David W. Rhode, Change and Continuity in the 1992 Elections (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1995), 146 and 152-153; John H. Flanigan and Nancy H. Zingale, Political Behavior of the American Electorate (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1994), 104-105; Everett Carll Ladd, "Political Parties and Presidential Elections in the Postindustrial Era" in Harvey L. Schantz, ed., American Presidential Elections (Albany: SUNY Press, 1996), 204-206; and David G. Lawrence, The Collapse of the Democratic Presidential Majority (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1997), 40.
33. Paul R. Abramson, John H. Aldrich, and David W. Rhode, Change and Continuity in the 1992 Elections (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1995), 146 and 152-153; John H. Flanigan and Nancy H. Zingale, Political Behavior of the American Electorate (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1994), 104-105; Everett Carll Ladd, "Political Parties and Presidential Elections in the Postindustrial Era" in Harvey L. Schantz, ed., American Presidential Elections (Albany: SUNY Press, 1996), 204-206; and David G. Lawrence, The Collapse of the Democratic Presidential Majority (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1997), 40.
34. Paul R. Abramson, John H. Aldrich, and David W. Rhode, Change and Continuity in the 1992 Elections (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1995), 146 and 152-153; John H. Flanigan and Nancy H. Zingale, Political Behavior of the American Electorate (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1994), 104-105; Everett Carll Ladd, "Political Parties and Presidential Elections in the Postindustrial Era" in Harvey L. Schantz, ed., American Presidential Elections (Albany: SUNY Press, 1996), 204-206; and David G. Lawrence, The Collapse of the Democratic Presidential Majority (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1997), 40.
35. For changes outside the South, see Jeffrey M. Stonecash, Mark D. Brewer, Mary P. McGuire, R. Eric Peterson, and Lori Beth Way, "The Survival of Democrats: Secular Realignment Outside the South," forthcoming, Political Research Quarterly. For changes in the South, see Richard Nadeau and Harold W. Stanley, "Class Polarization in Partisanship among Native Southern Whites, 1952-1990," American Journal of Political Science 37 (August 1993): 900-919; and Jeffrey M. Stonecash and Mark D. Brewer, "Class, Race Issues, and White Defections from the Democratic Party in the South" (Revision of a paper presented at the 1999 Midwest Political Science Association Meetings, Chicago, Illinois).
36. For changes outside the South, see Jeffrey M. Stonecash, Mark D. Brewer, Mary P. McGuire, R. Eric Peterson, and Lori Beth Way, "The Survival of Democrats: Secular Realignment Outside the South," forthcoming, Political Research Quarterly. For changes in the South, see Richard Nadeau and Harold W. Stanley, "Class Polarization in Partisanship among Native Southern Whites, 1952-1990," American Journal of Political Science 37 (August 1993): 900-919; and Jeffrey M. Stonecash and Mark D. Brewer, "Class, Race Issues, and White Defections from the Democratic Party in the South" (Revision of a paper presented at the 1999 Midwest Political Science Association Meetings, Chicago, Illinois).
37. For changes outside the South, see Jeffrey M. Stonecash, Mark D. Brewer, Mary P. McGuire, R. Eric Peterson, and Lori Beth Way, "The Survival of Democrats: Secular Realignment Outside the South," forthcoming, Political Research Quarterly. For changes in the South, see Richard Nadeau and Harold W. Stanley, "Class Polarization in Partisanship among Native Southern Whites, 1952-1990," American Journal of Political Science 37 (August 1993): 900-919; and Jeffrey M. Stonecash and Mark D. Brewer, "Class, Race Issues, and White Defections from the Democratic Party in the South" (Revision of a paper presented at the 1999 Midwest Political Science Association Meetings, Chicago, Illinois).
38. Frank Levy, Dollars and Dreams: The Changing American Income Distribution (New York: W. W. Norton, 1988); Kevin Phillips, The Politics of Rich and Poor: Wealth and the American Electorate in the Reagan Aftermath (New York: Random House, 1990); and Kevin Phillips, Boiling Point: Republicans, Democrats and the Decline of Middle-Class Prosperity (New York: Random House, 1993).
39. Frank Levy, Dollars and Dreams: The Changing American Income Distribution (New York: W. W. Norton, 1988); Kevin Phillips, The Politics of Rich and Poor: Wealth and the American Electorate in the Reagan Aftermath (New York: Random House, 1990); and Kevin Phillips, Boiling Point: Republicans, Democrats and the Decline of Middle-Class Prosperity (New York: Random House, 1993).
40. Frank Levy, Dollars and Dreams: The Changing American Income Distribution (New York: W. W. Norton, 1988); Kevin Phillips, The Politics of Rich and Poor: Wealth and the American Electorate in the Reagan Aftermath (New York: Random House, 1990); and Kevin Phillips, Boiling Point: Republicans, Democrats and the Decline of Middle-Class Prosperity (New York: Random House, 1993).
41. Lawrence Mishel, Jared Bernstein, and John Schmitt, The State of Working America, 1996-97 (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1997), 41-271.
42. Thomas G. Mortenson, "Educational Attainment by Family Income 1970 to 1994," Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Number 41, November 1995, 1-8.
43. James L. Sundquist, Dynamics of the Party System: Alignment and Realignment of Political Parties in the United States, rev. ed. (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1983), 262-268.
44. Alan I. Abramowitz, "Issue Evolution Reconsidered: Racial Attitudes and Partisanship in the U.S. Electorate," American Journal of Political Science 38 (February 1994): 1-24;
45. and John R. Aldrich, Why Parties (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1995), 169-173.
46. Andrew J. Taylor, "The Ideological Development of the Parties in Washington, 1947-1994," Polity 29 (Winter 1996): 273-292. On the rise of the conservative Republicans, see Nicol Rae, The Decline of Liberal Republicans (New York: Oxford University Press, 1989).
47. Andrew J. Taylor, "The Ideological Development of the Parties in Washington, 1947-1994," Polity 29 (Winter 1996): 273-292. On the rise of the conservative Republicans, see Nicol Rae, The Decline of Liberal Republicans (New York: Oxford University Press, 1989).
48. Robert S. Erikson and Gerald C. Wright, "Voters, Candidates, and Issues in Congressional Elections" in Lawrence C. Dodd and Bruce I. Oppenheimer, Congress Reconsidered, 6th ed. (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1997), 137-38.
49. See, for example, Jason DeParle, "Democrat's Invisible Man Specializes in Making Inequity of the Poor Easy to See," New York Times, 19 August 1991.
50. E. J. Dionne, They Only Look Dead (New York: Touchstone, 1997), 151-230.
51. Alan Abramowitz, "Ideological Realignment in the U.S. Electorate," Journal of Politics 60 (August 1998): 634-652.
52. Aldrich, Why Parties, 194; and Donald C. Baumer and Howard J. Gold, "Party Images and the American Electorate," American Politics Quarterly 23 (January 1995): 33-61.
53. Aldrich, Why Parties, 194; and Donald C. Baumer and Howard J. Gold, "Party Images and the American Electorate," American Politics Quarterly 23 (January 1995): 33-61.
54. We are focusing on 1994, because it was during this year that, as we shall document, changes developed. We are aware that during 1993, a policy debate about increased taxes occurred that might have prompted class divisions. In February 1993, Clinton proposed a package of tax increases totaling $267 billion over several years, with most of the burden to be borne by the very rich. His proposal was to create a new tax rate for those with families over $140,000 and to impose a surcharge of 10 percent on the taxes for those families making $250,00 and more (Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, 13 March 1993, 586). We do not find that these proposals, which were adopted in large part, had any impact on class divisions. The reactions to the tax proposals by income levels showed little difference (Gallup Poll Monthly, March 1993, 11). There was no increase in class differences in Clinton's job approval ratings following his proposals or their enactment.
55. We are focusing on 1994, because it was during this year that, as we shall document, changes developed. We are aware that during 1993, a policy debate about increased taxes occurred that might have prompted class divisions. In February 1993, Clinton proposed a package of tax increases totaling $267 billion over several years, with most of the burden to be borne by the very rich. His proposal was to create a new tax rate for those with families over $140,000 and to impose a surcharge of 10 percent on the taxes for those families making $250,00 and more (Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, 13 March 1993, 586). We do not find that these proposals, which were adopted in large part, had any impact on class divisions. The reactions to the tax proposals by income levels showed little difference (Gallup Poll Monthly, March 1993, 11). There was no increase in class differences in Clinton's job approval ratings following his proposals or their enactment.
56. The Gallup Poll Monthly, April 1994, 10-11.
57. Jeffrey L. Katz, "Welfare Issue Finds Home on the Campaign Trail," Congressional Quarterly, 15 October 1994, 2956-58.
58. Theda Skocpol, Boomerang: Health Care Reform and the Turn Against Government (New York: W. W. Norton, 1997), 183-184.
59. For skeptical comments, see ibid., 183 and 191. The general levels of awareness are reported in David W. Moore, Lydia Saad, Leslie McAneny, and Frank Newport, "Contract With America," The Gallup Poll Monthly, November 1994, 19-21.
60. For skeptical comments, see ibid., 183 and 191. The general levels of awareness are reported in David W. Moore, Lydia Saad, Leslie McAneny, and Frank Newport, "Contract With America," The Gallup Poll Monthly, November 1994, 19-21.
61. Marjorie Randon Hershey, "The Congressional Elections" in Gerald M. Pomper, et al., The Elections of 1996: Reports and Interpretation (Chatham, NJ: Chatham House, 1997), 208.
62. See Grant Reeher and Joseph Cammarano, "In Search of the Angry White Male: Gender, Race, and Issues in the 1994 Elections" in Philip A. Klinkner, ed., Midterm: The Elections in 1994 in Context (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1996), 125-136.
63. Our focus here is on whether there is any shift in support by gender that can explain the 1994 outcomes, but a look at general levels of support among men and women in each income group also fails to show a gender gap. In fact, upper-and lower-income men are more supportive of Democratic congressional candidates in 1994 than comparable groups of women voters in that same year. Please note that the composition of men and women in the NES sample populations does not vary significantly from year to year and thus does not appear to be a significant factor in our findings.
64. Dan Balz and Ronald Brownstein, Storming the Gates: Protest Politics and the Republican Revival (Boston: Little Brown, 1996).
65. David Maraniss and Michael Weisskopf, Tell Newt to Shut Up (New York: Touchstone, 1996).
66. For the dynamics of the campaign, see Elizabeth Drew, Showdown: The Struggle Between the Gingrich Congress and the Clinton White House (New York: Touchstone Books, 1997).
67. Jeffrey M. Stonecash and Nicole R. Lindstrom, "Emerging Party Cleavages in U.S. House Districts, 1962-96," American Politics Quarterly 27 (January 1999): 58-88.
68. Erikson and Wright, "Voters, Candidates, and Issues in Congressional Elections," 137-138.