The 1994 house elections in perspective

Political Science Quarterly

Volumn 111, Issue 2, 1996, Pages 203-223

  Jacobson, Gary C ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0008267994     PISSN: 00323195     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/2152319     Document Type: Review

References (35)

1. Bernard Sanders of Vermont, the lone independent, survived.
2. Gary C. Jacobson, The Electoral Origins of Divided Government: Competition in U.S. House Elections, 1946-1988 (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1990), 3.
3. Ibid., 129-133.
4. Gary C. Jacobson, "Deficit Cutting Politics and Congressional Elections," Political Science Quarterly 108 (Fall 1993): 375-401.
5. Keith Krehbiel, "A Theory of Divided and Unified Government" (manuscript, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, 1994).
6. Paul Richter, "It Just Seems We're Worse Off," Los Angeles Times, 26 January 1995.
7. Gary Langer, "'94 Vote: Republicans Seize the Reins of Discontent," ABC News Analysis, 11 November 1994.
8. Ibid.
9. Ibid. ; "Portrait of the Electorate: Who Voted for Whom in the House," New York Times, 13 November 1995.
10. Ibid. ; "Portrait of the Electorate: Who Voted for Whom in the House," New York Times, 13 November 1995.
11. Richard F. Fenno, Jr., Home Style: House Members in their Districts (Boston: Little, Brown, 1978), 164-168.
12. The 1988 district presidential vote was recomputed for each district to adjust for redistricting after 1990; the data are from Michael Barone and Grant Ujifusa, The Almanac of American Politics 1994 (Washington, DC: National Journal, 1993).
13. "Portrait of the Electorate," New York Times.
14. According to a survey sponsored by the Christian Coalition, 33 percent of the 1994 voters were "religious conservatives," up from 24 percent in 1992 and 18 percent in 1988 (Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, 19 November 1994, 3364); in the 1994 exit poll, 38 percent identified themselves as "conservatives," compared with 30 percent in 1992 (Hotline, 12 November 1994).
15. According to a survey sponsored by the Christian Coalition, 33 percent of the 1994 voters were "religious conservatives," up from 24 percent in 1992 and 18 percent in 1988 (Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, 19 November 1994, 3364); in the 1994 exit poll, 38 percent identified themselves as "conservatives," compared with 30 percent in 1992 (Hotline, 12 November 1994).
16. Jacobson, Electoral Origins of Divided Government, 134-135.
17. Robert S. Erikson, "Why the Democrats Lose Presidential Elections," PS: Political Science and Politics 22 (March 1989): 30-34.
18. Jeffrey J. Mondak, "Presidential Coattails and Open Seats: The District-Level Impact of Heuristic Processing," American Politics Quarterly 21 (July 1993): 307-319.
19. The swing is defined as the change in the division of the two-party House vote in the district from 1992 to 1994.
20. There are others; see Jacobson, Electoral Origins of Divided Government, 15-19; and Donald E. Stokes, "A Variance-Component Model of Political Effects" in John M. Claunch, ed., Mathematical Applications in Political Science (Dallas: Arnold Foundation, 1965).
21. There are others; see Jacobson, Electoral Origins of Divided Government, 15-19; and Donald E. Stokes, "A Variance-Component Model of Political Effects" in John M. Claunch, ed., Mathematical Applications in Political Science (Dallas: Arnold Foundation, 1965).
22. I omitted elections in years ending in "2" from these comparisons because of redistricting.
23. Gelman and King estimate the incumbency advantage by regressing the Democrat's share of the two-party vote on the Democrat's vote in the previous election, the party holding the seat, and incumbency (which takes 1 if the Democrat is the incumbent, -1 if the Republican is the incumbent, and 0 if the seat is open). The coefficient on the incumbency variable estimates the value (in percentage of votes) of incumbency for the election year. See Andrew Gelman and Gary King, "Estimating the Incumbency Advantage Without Bias," American Journal of Political Science 34 (November 1990): 1142-64.
24. For a discussion strategic candidacies, see Gary C. Jacobson and Samuel Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections, 2nd ed. (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1983).
25. Jacobson, Electoral Origins of Divided Government, 57-63.
26. Gary C. Jacobson, The Politics of Congressional Elections, 3rd ed. (New York: HarperCollins, 1992), 165-169.
27. Jacobson, The Electoral Origins of Divided Government, 55-57.
28. Gary C. Jacobson, "Parties and PACs in Congressional Elections" in Lawrence C. Dodd and Bruce I. Oppenheimer, eds., Congress Reconsidered, 4th ed. (Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press, 1989), 117-152.
29. Jacobson, Electoral Origins of Divided Government, 94-96.
30. Kevin A. Hill, "Does the Creation of Black Majority Districts Aid Republicans? An Analysis of the 1992 Congressional Elections in Eight Southern States," Journal of Politics 57 (May 1995): 384-401.
31. The initial Republican majority of 230 had grown to 236 by early 1996 through party switches (5) and special elections.
32. See David R. Mayhew, Congress: The Electoral Connection (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1974); and R. Douglas Arnold, The Logic of Congressional Action (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1990).
33. See David R. Mayhew, Congress: The Electoral Connection (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1974); and R. Douglas Arnold, The Logic of Congressional Action (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1990).
34. * Slightly different versions of this article have appeared as "The 1994 House Elections in Perspective" (paper prepared for delivery at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 6-8 April 1995) and in Philip A. Klinkner, ed., Midterm: The Elections of 1994 in Context (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1996).
35. * Slightly different versions of this article have appeared as "The 1994 House Elections in Perspective" (paper prepared for delivery at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 6-8 April 1995) and in Philip A. Klinkner, ed., Midterm: The Elections of 1994 in Context (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1996).