Long-lead prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall from global SST evolution

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 20, Issue 7-8, 2003, Pages 855-863

  Sahai, A K ^a   Grimm, A M ^a   Satyan, V ^b   Pant, G B ^b  

^a FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF PARANÁ   (Brazil)

^b INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY   (India)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN SYSTEM; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; MONSOON; PREDICTION; RAINFALL; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE;

EID: 0037929576     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-003-0306-8     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Blanford HF (1884) On the connection of the Himalayan snowfall with dry winds and seasons of draughts in India. Proc R Soc London 37: 3-22
2. Bhalme HN, Jadhav SK, Mooley DA, Ramana Murty Bh.V (1986) Forecasting of monsoon performance over India. J Climatol 6: 347-354
3. Box GEP, Jenkins GM, Reinsel GC (1994) Time series analysis, 3rd edn Prentice Hall, Eaglewood cliffs, N.J., USA, pp 598
4. Charney JG, Shukla J (1981) Predictability of monsoons. In: Lighthill J, Pearce RP (eds) Monsoon dynamics. (University Press), pp 99-109
5. Chen T-C, Yen M-C (1994) Interannual variation of the Indian monsoon simulated by the NCAR Community Climate Model: effect of the tropical Pacific SST. J Clim 7: 1403-1415
6. Clark CO, Cole JE, Webster PJ (2000) Indian Ocean SST and Indian summer rainfall: predictive relationships and their decadal variability. J Clim 13: 2503-2519
7. DelSole T, Shukla J (2002) Linear prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall. J Clim 15: 3645-3658
8. Goswami P, Srividya (1996) A novel neural network design for long-range prediction of rainfall pattern. Curr Sci 70: 447-457
9. Gowariker V, Thapliyal V, Kulshrestha SM, Mandal GS, Sen Roy N, Sikka DR (1991) A power regression model for long-range forecast of southwest monsoon rainfall over India. Mausam 42: 125-130
10. Hahn DG, Manabe S (1975) The role of mountains in the south Asian monsoon circulation. J Atmos Sci 32: 1515-1541
11. Harrison M, Soman MK, Davy M, Evans T, Roberson K, Ineson S (1997) Dynamical seasonal prediction of the Indian summer monsoon. Experimental Long-lead Bull 6: 29-32
12. Ju J, Slingo JM (1995) The Asian summer monsoon and ENSO. Q J R Meteorol Soc 122: 1133-1168
13. Kripalani RH, Kulkarni A (1997) Climate impact of El-Niñno/ La-Nina on the Indian monsoon: a new perspective. Weather 52: 39-46
14. Krishna Kumar K, Rajagopalan B, Cane MA (1999) On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science 284: 2156-2159
15. Krishna Kumar K, Soman MK, Rupakumar K (1995) Seasonal forecasting of Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a review. Weather 50: 449-467
16. Krishnamurthy V, Shukla J (2000) Intraseasonal and Interannual variability of Rainfall over India. J Clim 13: 4366-4377
17. Kulkarni A (2000) A note on the performance of IMD prediction model for ISMR. Paper presented at Annual Monsoon Workshop of Indian Meteorol Soc, Pune Chapter, 20 December, 2000
18. Manabe S, Hahn DG, Hollaway J (1974) The seasonal variation of tropical circulation as simulated by a global model of atmosphere. J Atmos Sci 32: 43-83
19. Meehl GA (1987) The annual cycle and interannual variability in tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean region. Mon Weather Rev 115: 27-50
20. Meehl GA (1997) The south Asian monsoon and the tropospheric biennial oscillation. J Clim 10: 1921-1943
21. Michaelsen J (1987) Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast models. J Clim Appl Meteorol 26: 1589-1600
22. Mooley DA, Parthasarathy B (1984) Fluctuations in All-India summer monsoon rainfall during 1871-1978. Clim Change 6: 287-301
23. Mooley DA, Parthasarathy B, Pant GB (1986) Relationship between all-India summer monsoon rainfall and location of ridge at 500-hPa level along 750 E. J Clim Appl Meteorol 25: 633-640
24. Navone HD, Ceccatto HA (1994) Predicting Indian monsoon rainfall: a neural network approach. Clim Dyn 10: 305-312
25. Nicholls N (1983) Predicting Indian monsoon rainfall from sea-surface temperature in the Indonesia-north Australia area. Nature 306: 576-577
26. Palmer TN, Brankowic C, Viterbo P, Miller MJ (1992) Modeling interannual variations of summer monsoons. J Clim 5: 399-417
27. Parthasarathy B, Munot AA, Kothawale DR (1994) All India monthly and summer rainfall indices. Theor Appl Climatol 49: 219-224. This data set is available at website http://www.tropmet. res.in/data and referred to as IITM All India Rainfall Series
28. Ramage CS (1983) The teleconnections and the seige of time. J Climatol 3: 223-231
29. Rayner NA, Horton EB, Parker DE, Folland CK, Hackett RB (1996) Version 2.2 of the global sea-ice and sea surface temperature data set, 1903-1994. Climate research technical note 4 available from Hadley centre for climate and prediction research, Meteorological Office, London Rd, Bracknell, Berkshire, RG12 2SY, England
30. Sahai AK, Soman MK, Satyan V (2000) All India summer monsoon rainfall prediction using an artificial neural network. Clim Dyn 16: 291-302
31. Sahai AK, Grimm AM, Satyan V, Pant GB (2002) Prospects of prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using global SST anomalies. IITM Res Rep, India, RR-093: 1-44
32. Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401: 360-363
33. Shukla J, Mooley DA (1987) Empirical prediction of the summer monsoon rainfall over India. Mon Weather Rev 115: 695-703
34. Shukla J, Paolino DA (1983) The Southern Oscillation and long-range forecasting of the summer monsoon rainfall over India. Mon Weather Rev III: 1830-1837
35. Sperber KR, Palmer TN (1996) Interannual tropical rainfall variability in general circulation model simulations associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. J Clim 9: 2727-2750
36. Soman MK, Slingo J (1997) Sensitivity of Asian Summer monsoon to aspects of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical pacific ocean. Q J R Meteorol Soc 123: 309-336
37. Stone M (1974) Cross-validatory choice and assessment of statistical predictions (with discussion). J R Statis Soc Series B 36: 111-147
38. Swaminathan MS (1998) Padma Bhusan Prof. P. Koteswaram First Memorial Lecture-23rd March 1998: Climate and sustainable food security. Vayu Mandal 28: 3-10
39. Thapaliyal V (1981) ARIMA model for long-range prediction of monsoon rainfall in Peninsular India. India Met Dep Monograph Climatology 12/81
40. Walker GT (1923) Correlation in seasonal variations of weather, VIII, A preliminary study of world weather. Mem Indian Meteorol Dept 24: 75-131
41. Webster PJ, Yang S (1992) Monsoon and ENSO: selectively interactive systems. Q J R Meteorol Soc 118: 877-926
42. Webster PJ, Magana VO, Palmer TN, Shukla J, Thomas RA, Yanai M, Yasunari T (1998) Monsoons: processes, predictability, and prospects for prediction. J Geophys Res 13: 14,451-14,510
43. Wilks DS (1995) Statistical methods in atmospheric sciences. Academic Press, New York, pp 467
44. Yasunari T (1990) Impact of Indian monsoon on the coupled atmosphere/ocean system in the tropical Pacific. Meteorol Atmos Phys 44: 29-41