메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 127, Issue 4, 1999, Pages 433-446

Using ensembles for short-range forecasting

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CYCLONE; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; PREDICTION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 0032752524     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<0433:UEFSRF>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (175)

References (60)
  • 1
    • 0029772167 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Selection of initial conditions for ensemble forecasts in a simple perfect model framework
    • Anderson, J. L., 1996: Selection of initial conditions for ensemble forecasts in a simple perfect model framework. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 22-36.
    • (1996) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.53 , pp. 22-36
    • Anderson, J.L.1
  • 2
    • 0028602325 scopus 로고
    • The new NMC mesoscale Eta Model: Description and forecast examples
    • Black, T., 1994: The new NMC mesoscale Eta Model: Description and forecast examples. Wea. Forecasting, 9, 265-278.
    • (1994) Wea. Forecasting , vol.9 , pp. 265-278
    • Black, T.1
  • 3
    • 0003143349 scopus 로고
    • NMC overview: Recent progress and future plans
    • Bonner, W. D., 1989: NMC overview: Recent progress and future plans. Wea. Forecasting, 4, 275-285.
    • (1989) Wea. Forecasting , vol.4 , pp. 275-285
    • Bonner, W.D.1
  • 4
    • 0025621967 scopus 로고
    • Extended-range predictions with the ECMWF models: Time lagged ensemble forecasting
    • Brankovic, C., T. N. Palmer, F. Molteni, and U. Cuhasch, 1990: Extended-range predictions with the ECMWF models: Time lagged ensemble forecasting. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 116, 867-912.
    • (1990) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.116 , pp. 867-912
    • Brankovic, C.1    Palmer, T.N.2    Molteni, F.3    Cuhasch, U.4
  • 6
    • 0029520273 scopus 로고
    • Optimal perturbation time evolutior and sensitivity of ensemble prediction to perturbation amplitude
    • Buizza, R., 1995: Optimal perturbation time evolutior and sensitivity of ensemble prediction to perturbation amplitude. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 121, 1705-1738.
    • (1995) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.121 , pp. 1705-1738
    • Buizza, R.1
  • 7
    • 0002531176 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential forecast skill of ensemble prediction and spread and skill distributions of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
    • _, 1997: Potential forecast skill of ensemble prediction and spread and skill distributions of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 99-119.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.125 , pp. 99-119
  • 8
    • 0345302284 scopus 로고
    • The singular vector structure of the atmospheric general circulation
    • _, and T. N. Palmer, 1995: The singular vector structure of the atmospheric general circulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1647-1681.
    • (1995) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.52 , pp. 1647-1681
    • Palmer, T.N.1
  • 9
    • 0024224740 scopus 로고
    • Medium range lagged average forecasts
    • Dalcher, A., E. Kalnay, and R. Hoffman, 1988: Medium range lagged average forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 402-416.
    • (1988) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.116 , pp. 402-416
    • Dalcher, A.1    Kalnay, E.2    Hoffman, R.3
  • 10
    • 0022830561 scopus 로고
    • Estimates of global analysis error from the global weather experiment observational network
    • Daley, R., and T. Mayer, 1986: Estimates of global analysis error from the global weather experiment observational network. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 1642-1653.
    • (1986) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.114 , pp. 1642-1653
    • Daley, R.1    Mayer, T.2
  • 11
    • 0001263541 scopus 로고
    • Changes to NMC's regional analysis and forecast system
    • DiMego, G. J., and Coauthors, 1992: Changes to NMC's regional analysis and forecast system. Wea. Forecasting, 7, 185-198.
    • (1992) Wea. Forecasting , vol.7 , pp. 185-198
    • DiMego, G.J.1
  • 12
    • 0001193751 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Short-range ensemble forecasting of quantitative precipitation
    • Du, J., S. L. Mullen, and F. Sanders, 1997: Short-range ensemble forecasting of quantitative precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2427-2459.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.125 , pp. 2427-2459
    • Du, J.1    Mullen, S.L.2    Sanders, F.3
  • 13
    • 0026271269 scopus 로고
    • On the utility of radiosonde humidity archives for climate studies
    • Elliott, W. P., and D. J. Gaffen, 1991: On the utility of radiosonde humidity archives for climate studies. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 72, 1507-1520.
    • (1991) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.72 , pp. 1507-1520
    • Elliott, W.P.1    Gaffen, D.J.2
  • 14
    • 0001609731 scopus 로고
    • Stochastic dynamic prediction
    • Epstein, E. S., 1969: Stochastic dynamic prediction. Tellus, 21, 739-759.
    • (1969) Tellus , vol.21 , pp. 739-759
    • Epstein, E.S.1
  • 15
    • 0020860638 scopus 로고
    • On the evolution of the QE II storm. Part II: Dynamic and thermodynamic structure
    • Gyakum, J. R., 1983: On the evolution of the QE II storm. Part II: Dynamic and thermodynamic structure. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 1156-1173.
    • (1983) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.111 , pp. 1156-1173
    • Gyakum, J.R.1
  • 16
    • 0002897679 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Verification of Eta-RSM short-range ensemble forecasts
    • Hamill, T. M., and S. J. Colucci, 1997: Verification of Eta-RSM short-range ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1312-1327.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.125 , pp. 1312-1327
    • Hamill, T.M.1    Colucci, S.J.2
  • 17
    • 0001104165 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of Eta-RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts
    • _, and _, 1998: Evaluation of Eta-RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 711-724.
    • (1998) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.126 , pp. 711-724
  • 18
    • 0000071691 scopus 로고
    • Three southerly low-level jet streams delineated by the Weather Bureau special pibal network of 1961
    • Hoecker, W. H., Jr., 1963: Three southerly low-level jet streams delineated by the Weather Bureau special pibal network of 1961. Mon. Wea. Rev., 91, 573-582.
    • (1963) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.91 , pp. 573-582
    • Hoecker W.H., Jr.1
  • 19
    • 0028607757 scopus 로고
    • The step-mountain Eta coordinate model: Further developments of the convection, viscous sublayer, and turbulence closure schemes
    • Janjić, Z. I., 1994: The step-mountain Eta coordinate model: Further developments of the convection, viscous sublayer, and turbulence closure schemes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 927-945.
    • (1994) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.122 , pp. 927-945
    • Janjić, Z.I.1
  • 20
    • 0024193108 scopus 로고
    • The relationship of surface pressure features to the precipitation and air flow structure of an intense midlatitude squall line
    • Johnson, R. H., and P. J. Hamilton, 1988: The relationship of surface pressure features to the precipitation and air flow structure of an intense midlatitude squall line. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 1444-1472.
    • (1988) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.116 , pp. 1444-1472
    • Johnson, R.H.1    Hamilton, P.J.2
  • 21
    • 0028582476 scopus 로고
    • The NMC nested regional spectral model
    • Juang, H.-M., and M. Kanamitsu, 1994: The NMC nested regional spectral model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 3-26.
    • (1994) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.122 , pp. 3-26
    • Juang, H.-M.1    Kanamitsu, M.2
  • 22
  • 23
    • 0025592294 scopus 로고
    • A one-dimensional entraining/detraining plume model and its application in connective parameterization
    • Kain, J. S., and J. M. Fritsch, 1990: A one-dimensional entraining/detraining plume model and its application in connective parameterization. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 2784-2802.
    • (1990) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.47 , pp. 2784-2802
    • Kain, J.S.1    Fritsch, J.M.2
  • 24
    • 33748494544 scopus 로고
    • The role of the convective "trigger function" in numerical forecasts of mesoscale convective systems
    • _, and _, 1992: The role of the convective "trigger function" in numerical forecasts of mesoscale convective systems. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 49, 93-106.
    • (1992) Meteor. Atmos. Phys. , vol.49 , pp. 93-106
  • 25
    • 0023469647 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting forecast skill
    • Kalnay, E., and A. Dalcher, 1987: Forecasting forecast skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 349-356.
    • (1987) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.115 , pp. 349-356
    • Kalnay, E.1    Dalcher, A.2
  • 26
    • 0008403564 scopus 로고
    • Parameterization of bulk condensation in numerical cloud models
    • Kogan, Y. L., and W. J. Martin, 1994: Parameterization of bulk condensation in numerical cloud models. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 1728-1739.
    • (1994) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.51 , pp. 1728-1739
    • Kogan, Y.L.1    Martin, W.J.2
  • 27
    • 0025655455 scopus 로고
    • Prediction of nine explosive cyclones over the western Atlantic with a regional model
    • Kuo, Y.-H., and S. Low-Nam, 1990: Prediction of nine explosive cyclones over the western Atlantic with a regional model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 3-25.
    • (1990) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.118 , pp. 3-25
    • Kuo, Y.-H.1    Low-Nam, S.2
  • 28
    • 0023808349 scopus 로고
    • Short range evolution of small perturbations in a barotropic model
    • Lacarra, J. F., and O. Talagrand, 1988: Short range evolution of small perturbations in a barotropic model. Tellus. 40A, 81-95.
    • (1988) Tellus , vol.40 A , pp. 81-95
    • Lacarra, J.F.1    Talagrand, O.2
  • 29
    • 0000630257 scopus 로고
    • Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts
    • Leith, C. E., 1974: Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, 409-418.
    • (1974) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.102 , pp. 409-418
    • Leith, C.E.1
  • 30
    • 0000241853 scopus 로고
    • Deterministic nonperiodic flow
    • Lorenz, E. N., 1963: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 131-140.
    • (1963) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.20 , pp. 131-140
    • Lorenz, E.N.1
  • 31
    • 0000084308 scopus 로고
    • Coastal storms of the eastern United States
    • Mather, J. R., H. Adams, and G. A. Yoshikoa, 1964: Coastal storms of the eastern United States. J. Appl. Meteor., 3, 693-706.
    • (1964) J. Appl. Meteor. , vol.3 , pp. 693-706
    • Mather, J.R.1    Adams, H.2    Yoshikoa, G.A.3
  • 32
    • 0002983858 scopus 로고
    • Cyclogenesis in the Atlantic coastal region of the United States
    • Miller, J. E., 1946: Cyclogenesis in the Atlantic coastal region of the United States. J. Meteor., 3, 31-44.
    • (1946) J. Meteor. , vol.3 , pp. 31-44
    • Miller, J.E.1
  • 34
    • 0024249477 scopus 로고
    • Sensitivity to numerical simulations of explosive oceanic cyclogenesis to changes in physical parameterizations
    • Mullen, S. L., and D. P. Baumhefner, 1988: Sensitivity to numerical simulations of explosive oceanic cyclogenesis to changes in physical parameterizations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 2289-2329.
    • (1988) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.116 , pp. 2289-2329
    • Mullen, S.L.1    Baumhefner, D.P.2
  • 35
    • 0024920840 scopus 로고
    • The impact of initial condition uncertainty on numerical simulations of large-scale explosive cyclogenesis
    • _, and _, 1989: The impact of initial condition uncertainty on numerical simulations of large-scale explosive cyclogenesis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 2800-2821.
    • (1989) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.117 , pp. 2800-2821
  • 36
    • 0028573983 scopus 로고
    • Monte Carlo simulations of explosive cyclogenesis
    • _, and _, 1994: Monte Carlo simulations of explosive cyclogenesis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 1548-1567.
    • (1994) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.122 , pp. 1548-1567
  • 37
    • 0000800652 scopus 로고
    • The value of climatological, categorical, and probabilistic forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation
    • Murphy, A. H., 1977: The value of climatological, categorical, and probabilistic forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 105, 803-816.
    • (1977) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.105 , pp. 803-816
    • Murphy, A.H.1
  • 38
    • 0027706813 scopus 로고
    • What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting
    • _, 1993: What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 281-293.
    • (1993) Wea. Forecasting , vol.8 , pp. 281-293
  • 39
    • 0025205627 scopus 로고
    • Assessment of the practical utility of extendedrange ensemble forecasts
    • Murphy, J. M., 1990: Assessment of the practical utility of extendedrange ensemble forecasts. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 116, 89-125.
    • (1990) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.116 , pp. 89-125
    • Murphy, J.M.1
  • 40
    • 0027040023 scopus 로고
    • The National Meteorological Center's spectral statistical-interpolation system
    • Parrish, D. F., and J. C. Derber, 1992: The National Meteorological Center's spectral statistical-interpolation system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 1747-1763.
    • (1992) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.120 , pp. 1747-1763
    • Parrish, D.F.1    Derber, J.C.2
  • 41
    • 0001828304 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The regional 3D-variational analysis for the eta model
    • Preprints. Norfolk, VA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
    • _, J. Purser, E. Rogers, and Y. Lin, 1996: The regional 3D-variational analysis for the eta model. Preprints. 11th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, VA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 454-455.
    • (1996) 11th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction , pp. 454-455
    • Purser, J.1    Rogers, E.2    Lin, Y.3
  • 42
    • 0008033028 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecast error and inconsistency in medium range weather prediction
    • Preprints, San Francisco, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
    • Persson, A., 1996: Forecast error and inconsistency in medium range weather prediction. Preprints, 13th Conf. on Probability and Statistics, San Francisco, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 253-259.
    • (1996) 13th Conf. on Probability and Statistics , pp. 253-259
    • Persson, A.1
  • 43
    • 0009780620 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential use of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system in cases of extreme weather events
    • Petroliagis, T., R. Buizza, A. Lanzinger, and T. N. Palmer, 1997: Potential use of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system in cases of extreme weather events. Meteor. Appl., 4, 69-84.
    • (1997) Meteor. Appl. , vol.4 , pp. 69-84
    • Petroliagis, T.1    Buizza, R.2    Lanzinger, A.3    Palmer, T.N.4
  • 44
    • 0001399593 scopus 로고
    • The role of latent heat release in explosive cyclogenesis: Three examples based on ECMWF operational forecasts
    • Reed, R. J., A. J. Simmons, M. D. Albright, and P. Unden, 1988: The role of latent heat release in explosive cyclogenesis: Three examples based on ECMWF operational forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 3, 217-229.
    • (1988) Wea. Forecasting , vol.3 , pp. 217-229
    • Reed, R.J.1    Simmons, A.J.2    Albright, M.D.3    Unden, P.4
  • 45
    • 0029431595 scopus 로고
    • The regional analysis system for the operational "early" eta model: Original 80-km configuration and recent changes
    • Rogers, E., D. G. Deaven, and G. J. DiMego, 1995: The regional analysis system for the operational "early" eta model: Original 80-km configuration and recent changes. Wea. Forecasting, 10, 810-825.
    • (1995) Wea. Forecasting , vol.10 , pp. 810-825
    • Rogers, E.1    Deaven, D.G.2    DiMego, G.J.3
  • 46
    • 0030433346 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Changes to operational "early" eta analysis forecast system at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction
    • _, T. L. Black, D. G. Deaven, and G. J. DiMego, 1996: Changes to operational "early" eta analysis forecast system at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 391-413.
    • (1996) Wea. Forecasting , vol.11 , pp. 391-413
    • Black, T.L.1    Deaven, D.G.2    DiMego, G.J.3
  • 47
    • 0004491040 scopus 로고
    • Skill in prediction of explosive cyclogenesis over the western North Atlantic Ocean. 1987-1988: A forecast checklist and NMC dynamical models
    • Sanders, E. and E. P. Auciello, 1989: Skill in prediction of explosive cyclogenesis over the western North Atlantic Ocean. 1987-1988: A forecast checklist and NMC dynamical models. Wea. Forecasting, 4, 157-172.
    • (1989) Wea. Forecasting , vol.4 , pp. 157-172
    • Sanders, E.1    Auciello, E.P.2
  • 48
    • 0000320623 scopus 로고
    • Large-amplitude mesoscale wave disturbances within the intense midwest extratropical cyclone of 15 December 1987
    • Schneider, R. S., 1990: Large-amplitude mesoscale wave disturbances within the intense midwest extratropical cyclone of 15 December 1987. Wea. Forecasting, 5, 533-558.
    • (1990) Wea. Forecasting , vol.5 , pp. 533-558
    • Schneider, R.S.1
  • 49
    • 0028668507 scopus 로고
    • Mesoscale convective systems in weakly forced large-scale environments. Part II: Generation of a mesoscale initial condition
    • Stensrud, D. J., and J. M. Fritsch, 1994a: Mesoscale convective systems in weakly forced large-scale environments. Part II: Generation of a mesoscale initial condition. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 2068-2083.
    • (1994) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.122 , pp. 2068-2083
    • Stensrud, D.J.1    Fritsch, J.M.2
  • 50
    • 0028668503 scopus 로고
    • Mesoscale convective systems in weakly forced large-scale environments. Part III: Numerical simulations and implications for operational forecasting
    • _, and _, 1994b: Mesoscale convective systems in weakly forced large-scale environments. Part III: Numerical simulations and implications for operational forecasting. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 2084-2104.
    • (1994) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.122 , pp. 2084-2104
  • 51
    • 0000022038 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble forecasting of mesoscale convective systems
    • Preprints. Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
    • _, J.-W. Bao, and T. T. Warner, 1998: Ensemble forecasting of mesoscale convective systems. Preprints. 12th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 265-268.
    • (1998) 12th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction , pp. 265-268
    • Bao, J.-W.1    Warner, T.T.2
  • 52
    • 0001509508 scopus 로고
    • Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations
    • Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 2317-2330.
    • (1993) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.74 , pp. 2317-2330
    • Toth, Z.1    Kalnay, E.2
  • 53
    • 0027705108 scopus 로고
    • Ensemble forecasting at NMC: Operational implementation
    • Tracton, S., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Ensemble forecasting at NMC: Operational implementation. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 379-398.
    • (1993) Wea. Forecasting , vol.8 , pp. 379-398
    • Tracton, S.1    Kalnay, E.2
  • 54
    • 0003143209 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) at NCEP/EMC
    • Preprints, Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
    • _, J. Du, Z. Toth, and H. Juang, 1998: Short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) at NCEP/EMC. Preprints, 12th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction. Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 269-272.
    • (1998) 12th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction , pp. 269-272
    • Du, J.1    Toth, Z.2    Juang, H.3
  • 55
    • 0024189823 scopus 로고
    • The reliability of improvements in deterministic short-range forecasts in the presence of initial state and modeling deficiencies
    • Tribbia, J. J., and D. P. Baumhefner, 1988: The reliability of improvements in deterministic short-range forecasts in the presence of initial state and modeling deficiencies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 2276-2288.
    • (1988) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.116 , pp. 2276-2288
    • Tribbia, J.J.1    Baumhefner, D.P.2
  • 56
    • 0028192650 scopus 로고
    • An evaluation of problems affecting the measurement of low relative humidity on the United States radiosonde
    • Wade, C. G., 1994: An evaluation of problems affecting the measurement of low relative humidity on the United States radiosonde. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 11, 687-700.
    • (1994) J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. , vol.11 , pp. 687-700
    • Wade, C.G.1
  • 57
    • 0001005190 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison study of convective parameterization schemes in a mesoscale model
    • Wang, W., and N. L. Seaman, 1997: A comparison study of convective parameterization schemes in a mesoscale model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 252-278.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.125 , pp. 252-278
    • Wang, W.1    Seaman, N.L.2
  • 59
    • 0027829728 scopus 로고
    • An observational study of the dryline
    • Ziegler, C., and C. Hane, 1993: An observational study of the dryline. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 1134-1151.
    • (1993) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.121 , pp. 1134-1151
    • Ziegler, C.1    Hane, C.2
  • 60
    • 0000322891 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rainfall assimilation through an optimal control of initial and boundary conditions in a limited-area mesoscale model
    • Zou, X., and Y.-H. Kuo, 1996: Rainfall assimilation through an optimal control of initial and boundary conditions in a limited-area mesoscale model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 2859-2882.
    • (1996) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.124 , pp. 2859-2882
    • Zou, X.1    Kuo, Y.-H.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.