Applications of the adjoint technique to short-range ensemble forecasting of mesoscale convective systems

Monthly Weather Review

Volumn 129, Issue 6, 2001, Pages 1395-1418

  Xu, M ^a   Stensrud, D J ^a   Bao, J W ^a   Warner, T T ^a  

^a NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

COMPUTER SIMULATION; METEOROLOGICAL PROBLEMS; PROBABILITY;

ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

ATMOSPHERIC MODELING; CONVECTIVE SYSTEM; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; MESOSCALE METEOROLOGY;

EID: 0035359322     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<1395:AOTATT>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (81)

1. The impact of dynamical constraints on the selection of initial conditions for ensemble predictions: Low-order perfect model results
2. On complete filtering of gravity modes through non-linear initialization
3. An adjoint examination of a nudging method for data assimilation
4. Local error growth in a barotropic model
5. Singular vectors and estimates of the analysis error covariance metric
6. A simple scheme for objective analysis in curved flow
7. The Betts-Miller scheme
8. High resolution models of the planetary boundary layer
9. The dynamics of error covariances in barotropic model
10. New technology and numerical weather prediction-A wasted opportunity?
11. Potential forecast skill of ensemble prediction and spread and skill distributions of the ECMWF ensemble predictions system
12. Targeting observations using sigular vectors
13. Singular vectors, norms and large-scale condensation
14. Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
15. The application of a nonlinear normal mode initialization to an operational forecast model
16. The distinction between large-scale and mesoscale contribution to severe convection: A case study
17. Short-range ensemble forecasting of quantitative precipitation
18. Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model
19. A nonhydrostatic version of the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model: Validation tests and the simulation of an Atlantic cyclone and cold front
20. Singular vector perturbation growth in a primitive equation model with moist physics
21. Gravity waves and convection in Colorado during July 1983
22. Report from a workshop on cumulus parameterization Key Biscayne, Florida, 3-5 May 1991
23. Analysis of the internal gravity wave occurrence of 19 April 1970 in the midwest
24. What is an adjoint model?
25. Interpretations of the total energy and rotational energy norms applied to determination of singular vectors
26. Predictibility experiments using a high-resolution limited-area model
27. Sensitivity analysis using an adjoint of the PSU-NCAR mesoscale model
28. Examination of the accuracy of a tangent linear model
29. An evaluation of the real-time tropical cyclone forecast skill of the navy operational global atmospheric prediction system in the Western North Pacific
30. Preliminary numerical tests of the modification of mesoscale convective systems
31. Forecasting techniques utilized by the Forecast Branch of the National Meteorological Center during a major convective rainfall event
32. Assimilation of simulated wind lidar data with a Kalman filter
33. An assessment of the singular-vector approach to targeted observing using the FASTEX dataset
34. Assimilation of synthetic tropical cyclone observations into the navy operational global atmospheric prediction system
35. A description of the fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5)
36. Hypothesis tests for evaluating numerical precipitation forecasts
37. Forcing mechanisms and other characteristics of significant summertime precipitation
38. Three southerly low-level jet streams delineated by the Weather Bureau special pibal network of 1961
39. Methods for ensemble prediction
40. Using ensemble forecasts for model validation
41. The step-mountain eta coordinate model: Further developments of the convection, viscous sublayer, and turbulence closure schemes
42. Convective parameterization for mesoscale models: The Kain-Fritsch scheme
43. Variational assimilation of precipitable water using a nonhydrostatic mesoscale adjoint model. Part I: Moisture retrieval and sensitivity experiments
44. The impact of global positioning system data on the prediction of an extratropical cyclone: An observing system simulation experiment
45. Evaluation of physical processes in a idealized extratropical cyclone using adjoint sensitivity
46. Targeted observations in FASTEX: Adjoint-based targeting procedures and data impact experiments in IOP17 and IOP18
47. Severe convective storm probabilities for local areas in watches issued by the Storm Prediction Center
48. Banded convective activity and ducted gravity waves
49. A study of the predictibility of a 28-variable atmospheric model
50. Watch verification at the Storm Prediction Center 1970-1997
51. The Oklahoma-Kansas preliminary regional experiment for STORM-Central (OK PRESTORM)
52. The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation
53. Forecast skill of the ECMWF model using targeted observations during FASTEX
54. Quantitative precipitation forecast verification at the National Meteorological Center
55. Ensemble prediction
56. Singular vectors, matrices, and adaptive observations
57. A synoptic study on the formation of squall lines in the North central United States
58. Numerical simulation of the large-amplitude mesoscale gravity-wave event of 15 December 1987 in the central United States
59. Numerical model-reality intercomparison tests using small-sample statistics
60. An application of adjoint models to sensitivity analysis
61. Sensitivity of forecast errors to initial conditions
62. Examination of targeting methods in a simplified setting
63. Mesoscale and synoptic scale interactions leading to intense convection: The case of 7 June 1982
64. The regional analysis system for the operational "early" eta model: Original 80-km configuration and recent changes
65. Mesoscale convective systems in weakly forced large-scale environments. Part III: Numerical simulations and implications for operational forecasting
66. Importance of cold pools to mesoscale model forecasts
67. Using initial condition and model physics perturbations in short-range ensemble simulations of mesoscale convective systems
68. A case study of gravity waves-convective storms interaction: 9 May 1979
69. Normal mode initialization for a multilevel grid point model
70. Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations
71. Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method
72. A case study of apparent gravity wave initiation of severe convective storms
73. Nonlinear and linear evolution of initial forecast errors
74. A comparison study of convective parameterization schemes in a mesoscale model
75. Nonhydrostatic, mesobeta-scale real-data simulations with the Penn State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model
76. A high-esolution model of the planetary boundary layer-sensitivity tests and comparisons with SESAME-79 data
77. Numerical simulation of the meso-β scale structure and evolution of the 1977 Johnstown flood. Part III: Internal gravity waves and the squall line
78. Rainfall assimilation through an optimal control of initial and boundaryconditions in a limited-Area mesoscale mode
79. Assimilation of atmospheric radio refractivity using a nonhydrostatic adjoint model
80. Introduction to adjoint techniques and the MM5 adjoint modeling system