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Image of density and fluorescent bands in core MAL-96-1, from the same colony, can be seen at www. ogp.noaa.gov/misc/coral/coraLpaleo/coraldata.html #Kenya.
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29
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0343308525
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note
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Stable isotope samples were analyzed on four isotope ratio mass spectrometers: a VG 602 with SIRA-series electronics at Rice University, a Finnigan 252 with Kiel device at Stanford University, a VG-SIRA with automated carbonate preparation device, and a Micromass Optima with automated carbonate preparation device, the latter two at the University of Colorado, Boulder (INSTAAR). The oxygen isotopic record represents duplicate (in some cases, triplicate) values for all samples. Each measurement has an analytical uncertainty of ±0.08%.
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30
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0028830340
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note
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18O to the enhanced COADS SST from 3 °S, 41 °E, which has a broader screening tolerance than the standard COADS (4.5σ versus 3.5σ) to capture larger anomalies. COADS enhanced data are provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO, from their web site (www.cdc.noaa.gov/). We use annual SST data representing a November-October year and include only years that contain at least three observations from every month; this procedure yields a slope of -0.238‰ per 1 °C and explains 47% of the SST variance. The details of the calibration procedure have little effect on the paleotemperature slope: Using the standard SST product instead of the enhanced yields a slope of -0.228; omitting the minimum requirement of three observations per month yields a slope of 0.262 for the enhanced COADS and 0.252 for the standard. These correlations are all significant at >99.9%. More rigorous screening - for example, requiring a higher number of monthly observations - reduces the number of data points in the analysis (and hence reduces the statistical significance) but does not change slopes significantly. We obtained all slopes using linear regression and assuming SST as the independent variable. Given the SST screening applied, this assumption seems better justified than alternative methods that assume comparable error in both variables [for example, reduced major axis; J. C. Davis, Statistics and Data Analysis in Geology (Wiley, New York, 1986); G. T. Shen and R. B. Dunbar, Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 59, 2009 (1995)].
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31
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0342438851
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note
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18O values from stations in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda are consistent at -2.8‰ [International Atomic Energy Agency-World Meteorological Organization Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP Database, Release 2, May 1998; www.iaea.org/ programs/ri/gnip/gnipmain.htm)].
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0004957146
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0032529811
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The Niño 3.4 SST record reflects SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific region bounded by 5 °S to 5 °N, 120° to 170 °W [A. Kaplan et al., J. Geophys. Res. 103, 18567 (1998); http://ingrid.ldgo.columbia.edu/ SOURCES/.KAPLAN/.Indices/].
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K. E. Trenberth, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 71, 988 (1990); C. C. Ebbesmeyer et al., in Proceedings of the 7th Annual Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Workshop, April 1990 , J. L. Betancourt and V. L. Sharp, Eds. (Interagency Ecological Studies Program Tech Rep. 26, California Dept. of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA, 1991), pp. 120-141.
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Proceedings of the 7th Annual Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Workshop
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K. E. Trenberth, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 71, 988 (1990); C. C. Ebbesmeyer et al., in Proceedings of the 7th Annual Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Workshop, April 1990 , J. L. Betancourt and V. L. Sharp, Eds. (Interagency Ecological Studies Program Tech Rep. 26, California Dept. of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA, 1991), pp. 120-141.
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T. R. McClanahan, unpublished data; C. Wilkinson, The 1997-1998 Mass Bleaching Event Around the World (www.aims.gov.au/pages/research/coral-bleaching/ 1997-98-mbe/mbe-00.html).
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N. J. Mantua, S. R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, R. C. Francis, Bull Am. Meteorol. Soc. 78, 1069 (1997); coherency analysis with Malindi record not shown.
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Mantua, N.J.1
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0343308512
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note
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We thank the Kenya Wildlife Service and the Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (particularly E. Okemwa and J. Mariara) for logistical and field support. Laboratory analysis was facilitated by D. Mucciarone, C. Urban, B. Vaughn, and D. White. Our interpretations benefited from ongoing discussions with C. Charles, C. Clark, M. Mann, and P. Webster. Supported by NSF Climate Dynamics and Earth System History program grants ATM 94-10298 and OCE-9614137 (J.E.C.) and ATM 94-09779, OCE-9632287, and OCE-9896157 (R.B.D.).
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