Status and improvements of coupled general circulation models

Science

Volumn 288, Issue 5473, 2000, Pages 1991-1997

  Grassl, Hartmut ^a  

^a MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGY   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AIR-SEA INTERACTION; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; TELECONNECTION;

ATMOSPHERE; COMPUTER; GLOBAL CLIMATE; MODEL; PRIORITY JOURNAL; REVIEW; SEA; WEATHER;

EID: 0034674593     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.288.5473.1991     Document Type: Review

References (49)

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3. The longest reanalysis over 40 years stems from the National Center for Environmental Predictions as described in E. Kalnay et al., Bull. Am. Meterol. Soc. 77, 437 (1996).
4. A 15-year reanalysis by ECMWF [J. K. Gibson et al., FCMWF Reanalysis Project Report Series 1, (ECMWF, Reading, UK, 1997)] is something of a forerunner to a 40-year reanalysis from the same center to be available in 2002.
5. An interesting example is global seasonal rainfall forecasting with a CGCM depending on new ocean observations across the tropical Pacific by the so-called TOGA-TAO array of moored buoys implemented during the Tropical Ocean/Global Atmosphere (TOGA) project of WCRP [see, for example T. N. Stockdale, D. L. T. Anderson, J. O. S. Alves, M. A. Balmaseda, Nature 392, 370 (1998)].
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11. The implementation plan of the Climate Variability and Predictability project (Technical Document 869, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland, 1998) refers to the need to extend quantitative climate information with high temporal and spatial resolution into the preinstrumental period to answer, for example, the following question: Is the increased intensity and frequency of El Niños in recent decades part of a natural long-term fluctuation or human-made?
12. R. T. Weatherald and S. Manabe [Clim. Change 43, 495 (1999)] give an assessment of the development of soil moisture parameterizations in climate models.
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14. V. Petoukhov et al. [Clim. Dyn., in press] describe their model CLIMBER, with which multiple vegetation cover states, depending on initial conditions (wetter or drier), were found and which has also been used by their group [V. Brovkin, A. Ganopolski, M. Claussen, C. Kubatzki, V. Petoukhov, Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 8, 509 (2000)] to assess historical global climate change driven by changes in land use. Pioneering work on the quantification of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks in climate change is also contained in I. C. Prentice et al., J. Biogeogr. 19, 117 (1992) and Texier et al., Clim. Dyn. 13, 865 (1997).
15. V. Petoukhov et al. [Clim. Dyn., in press] describe their model CLIMBER, with which multiple vegetation cover states, depending on initial conditions (wetter or drier), were found and which has also been used by their group [V. Brovkin, A. Ganopolski, M. Claussen, C. Kubatzki, V. Petoukhov, Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 8, 509 (2000)] to assess historical global climate change driven by changes in land use. Pioneering work on the quantification of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks in climate change is also contained in I. C. Prentice et al., J. Biogeogr. 19, 117 (1992) and Texier et al., Clim. Dyn. 13, 865 (1997).
16. V. Petoukhov et al. [Clim. Dyn., in press] describe their model CLIMBER, with which multiple vegetation cover states, depending on initial conditions (wetter or drier), were found and which has also been used by their group [V. Brovkin, A. Ganopolski, M. Claussen, C. Kubatzki, V. Petoukhov, Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 8, 509 (2000)] to assess historical global climate change driven by changes in land use. Pioneering work on the quantification of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks in climate change is also contained in I. C. Prentice et al., J. Biogeogr. 19, 117 (1992) and Texier et al., Clim. Dyn. 13, 865 (1997).
17. V. Petoukhov et al. [Clim. Dyn., in press] describe their model CLIMBER, with which multiple vegetation cover states, depending on initial conditions (wetter or drier), were found and which has also been used by their group [V. Brovkin, A. Ganopolski, M. Claussen, C. Kubatzki, V. Petoukhov, Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 8, 509 (2000)] to assess historical global climate change driven by changes in land use. Pioneering work on the quantification of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks in climate change is also contained in I. C. Prentice et al., J. Biogeogr. 19, 117 (1992) and Texier et al., Clim. Dyn. 13, 865 (1997).
18. T. F. Stocker and D. G. Wright, Nature 351, 729 (1991).
19. A perspective on the understanding of these events, together with a bibliography and attempts to model it, are given by T. F. Stocker and O. Marchal in Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 97, 1362 (2000).
20. See, for example, S. Manabe and R. J. Stouffer, Nature 378, 165 (1995).
21. M. Latif and E. Roeckner, J. Clim., in press.
22. G. A. Meehl, G. J. Boer, C. Covey, M. Latif, R. J. Stouffer, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., in press.
23. M. Latif, J. Clim. 11, 602 (1998). A recent study with the same model (17) showed that the more frequent El Niño-like events that occur with enhanced greenhouse forcing, leading to less evaporation in the tropical Atlantic, could give negative feedback, halting the weakening of the thermohaline Atlantic circulation that is a common feature of CGCMs run in transient mode with rapidly increasing greenhouse forcing, but not resolving ENSO events adequately.
24. R. J. Stouffer, G. Hegerl, S. Tett, J. Clim., in press.
25. H. Le Treut and Mc Avaney, personal communication (2000).
26. On behalf of the climate research community, represented by the Joint Scientific Committee of the World Climate Research Programme, I wrote in June 1996 to all major space agencies recommending that attempts be made to measure cloud water and ice profiles; upper soil wetness; tropospheric wind profiles; the fine structure of the gravity field of Earth; and, if possible, sea ice thickness. The very positive reaction of NASA, the European Space Agency, the National Aeronautics and Space Development Agency of Japan, and the Centre Nationale d'Etudes Spatiales of France will provide such new observation capabilities within the next 5 years.
27. F. W. Zwiers and V. V. Kharin, J. Clim. 11, 2200 (1998).
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31. This information is based on two recent publications: B. K. Reichert, L Bengtsson, O. Åkesson, J. Geophys. Res. 104, 19071 (1999); J. Oerlemans and B. K. Reichert, J. Glaciol., in press.
32. This information is based on two recent publications: B. K. Reichert, L Bengtsson, O. Åkesson, J. Geophys. Res. 104, 19071 (1999); J. Oerlemans and B. K. Reichert, J. Glaciol., in press.
33. See U. Cubasch, G. C. Hegerl, R. Voss, J. Waszkewitz, T. J. Crowley, Clim. Dyn. 13, 757 (1997) for solar forcing; see also (37).
34. M. E. Mann, R. S. Bradley, M. K. Hughes, Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 759 (1999).
35. Examples are S. F. B. Tett, P. A. Stott, M. A. Allen, W. J. Ingram, J.-F. B. Mitchell, Nature 399, 569 (1999); G. C. Hegerl et al., Clim. Dyn., in press; T. P. Barnett et al., Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., in press.
36. Examples are S. F. B. Tett, P. A. Stott, M. A. Allen, W. J. Ingram, J.-F. B. Mitchell, Nature 399, 569 (1999); G. C. Hegerl et al., Clim. Dyn., in press; T. P. Barnett et al., Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., in press.
37. Examples are S. F. B. Tett, P. A. Stott, M. A. Allen, W. J. Ingram, J.-F. B. Mitchell, Nature 399, 569 (1999); G. C. Hegerl et al., Clim. Dyn., in press; T. P. Barnett et al., Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., in press.
38. A. Berger, Rev. Geophys. 26, 624 (1988).
39. WMO and the United Nations Environment Programme assess ozone depletion regularly. The most recent assessment is published as Report No. 44 in the Global Ozone Research and Monitoring series of WMO, Geneva, Switzerland (1998).
40. See (75) and references (11, 12, 14 15, 17, 19) in that review for the thermohaline circulation hysteresis.
41. E. Roeckner, L. Bengtsson, H. Feichter, J. Lelieveld, R. Rodhe, J. Clim., in press.
42. The original publication in German [H. Grassl, Strahlung in getrübten Atmosphären und in Wolken, Hamburger Geophysikalische Einzelschriften, Serie B, No. 74 (1978)] has in part been repeated in The Changing Atmosphere, F. S. Rowland and I. S. A. Isaksen, Eds. (Chichester, London, 1988), chap. 11.
43. The original publication in German [H. Grassl, Strahlung in getrübten Atmosphären und in Wolken, Hamburger Geophysikalische Einzelschriften, Serie B, No. 74 (1978)] has in part been repeated in The Changing Atmosphere, F. S. Rowland and I. S. A. Isaksen, Eds. (Chichester, London, 1988), chap. 11.
44. WCRP, the International Geosphere/Biosphere Programme (IGBP), and the International Human Dimensions Programme [IHDP) on Global Environmental Change already jointly sponsor the Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training, which establishes research networks in large regions (such as Southeast Asia, northern Africa, and southern Africa) and promotes projects such as Climate Predictions for Agriculture. However, the infrastructure (an international secretariat and international project offices) is weak for IHDP, and IGBP is also weak in terms of project offices. A fourth program, called DIVERSITAS and devoted to biodiversity, does not yet have what one can call a functioning infrastructure.
45. Global satellite data sets are especially useful for establishing parameters for which no in situ equivalent exists, for example, monthly mean precipitation (also over oceans) as derived by the global Precipitation Climatology Project of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment [G. Huffman et al., Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 78, 5 (1997)]. Ocean surface heat fluxes also belong to this category.
46. The theoretical framework for the optimal fingerprint method was laid by K. Hasselmann, J. Clim. 6, 1957 (1993); K. Hasselmann, Clim. Dyn. 13, 601 (1997); and K. Hasselmann, Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 124, 2541 (1998).
47. The theoretical framework for the optimal fingerprint method was laid by K. Hasselmann, J. Clim. 6, 1957 (1993); K. Hasselmann, Clim. Dyn. 13, 601 (1997); and K. Hasselmann, Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 124, 2541 (1998).
48. The theoretical framework for the optimal fingerprint method was laid by K. Hasselmann, J. Clim. 6, 1957 (1993); K. Hasselmann, Clim. Dyn. 13, 601 (1997); and K. Hasselmann, Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 124, 2541 (1998).
49. L. Bengtsson, E. Roeckner, M. Stendel, J. Geophys. Res. 104, 3864 (1999).