Implications of precipitation redistribution for shifts in temperate savanna ecotones

Ecology

Volumn 81, Issue 7, 2000, Pages 1902-1913

  Weltzin, Jake F ^a,b   Mcpherson, Guy R ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Ecotone; Emory oak; Precipitation seasonality; Quercus emoryi; Savanna; Seedling establishment; Soil moisture resource partitioning; Treeline; Woodland

Indexed keywords

DOMINANCE; ECOTONE; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); SAVANNA; WOODLAND;

NORTH AMERICA;

QUERCUS EMORYI;

EID: 0033910969     PISSN: 00129658     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/0012-9658(2000)081[1902:IOPRFS]2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (98)

1. Allison, P. D. 1995. Survival analysis using the SAS system: a practical guide. SAS Institute, Cary, North Carolina, USA.
2. Archer, S. 1990. Development and stability of grass/woody mosaics in a subtropical savanna parkland, Texas, USA. Journal of Biogeography 17:453-462.
3. Archer, S. 1994. Woody plant encroachment into southwestern grasslands and savannas: rates, patterns and proximate causes. Pages 13-68 in M. Vavra, W. Laycock, and R. Pieper, editors. Ecological implications of livestock herbivory in the West. Society for Range Management, Denver, Colorado, USA.
4. Archer, S. 1995. Tree-grass dynamics in a Prosopis-thornscrub savanna parkland: reconstructing the past and predicting the future. Écoscience 2:83-99.
5. Bahre, C. J. 1991. A legacy of change. University of Arizona Press, Tucson, Arizona, USA.
6. Bartolome, J. W., B. H. Allen-Diaz, and W. D. Tietje. 1994. The effect of Quercus douglasii removal on understory yield and composition. Journal of Range Management 47: 151-154.
7. Brown, D. E., editor. 1982. Biotic communities of the American southwest - United States and Mexico. Desert Plants 4:1-342.
8. Brown J. R., and S. R. Archer. 1990. Water relations of a perennial grass and seedling vs. adult woody plants in a subtropical savanna, Texas. Oikos 57:366-374.
9. Burgess, T. L. 1995. Desert grassland, mixed shrub savanna, shrub steppe, or semidesert scrub? The dilemma of coexisting growth forms. Pages 31-67 in M. P. McClaran and T. R. Van Devender, editors. The desert grassland. University of Arizona Press, Tucson, Arizona, USA.
10. Cable, D. R. 1975. Influence of precipitation on perennial grass production in the semidesert southwest. Ecology 56: 981-986.
11. Caprio, A. C., and M. J. Zwolinski. 1995. Fire and vegetation in a madrean oak woodland, Santa Catalina Mountains, southeastern Arizona. Pages 389-399 in L. F. DeBano, G. J. Gottfried, R. H. Hamre, C. B. Edminster, P. F. Ffolliott, and A. Ortega-Rubio, technical coordinators. Biodiversity and management of the Madrean Archipelago: the sky islands of southwestern United States and Northwestern Mexico. U.S. Forest Service General Technical Report RM-264.
12. Chesson, P., and N. Huntley. 1989. Short-term instabilities and long-term community dynamics. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 4:293-298.
13. Darwin, C. 1964. The origin of species. First edition, 1859. Harvard Facsimile. Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.
14. Davis, O. K. 1994. The correlation of summer precipitation in the southwestern USA with isotopic records of solar activity during the Medieval Warm Period. Climatic Change 26:271-287.
15. Ehleringer, J. R., S. L. Phillips, W. S. F. Schuster, and D. R. Sandquist. 1991. Differential utilization of summer rains by desert plants. Oecologia 88:430-434.
16. Emanuel, W. R., H. H. Shugart, and M. Stevenson. 1985. Climatic change and the broad-scale distribution of terrestrial ecosystem complexes. Climatic Change 7:29-43.
17. Fisher, R. A. 1960. The design of experiments. Seventh edition. Hafner, New York, New York, USA.
18. Foley, J. A., S. Levis, I. C. Prentice, D. Pollard, and S. L. Thompson. 1998. Coupling dynamic models of climate and vegetation. Global Change Biology 4:561-579.
19. Fuller, D. O., and S. D. Prince. 1996. Rainfall and foliar dynamics in tropical southern Africa: potential impacts of global climatic change on savanna vegetation. Climatic Change 33:69-96.
20. Germaine, H. L., and G. R. McPherson. 1999. Effects of biotic factors on emergence and survival of Quercus emoryi at lower treeline, Arizona, USA. Écoscience 6:92-99.
21. 2 climate over the central plains of the United States. Climatic Change 40:457-493.
22. Griffin, J. R. 1971. Oak regeneration in the upper Carmel Valley, California. Ecology 52:862-868.
23. Grime, J. P. 1979. Plant strategies and vegetation processes. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, UK.
24. Grubb, P. J. 1977. The maintenance of species richness in plant communities: the importance of the regeneration niche. Biological Review 52:107-145.
25. Harper, J. L. 1977. Population biology of plants. Academic Press, London, UK.
26. Harte, J., and R. Shaw. 1995. Shifting dominance within a montane vegetation community: results of a climate-warming experiment. Science 267:876-880.
27. Haworth, K., and G. R. McPherson. 1994. Effects of Quercus emoryi on herbaceous vegetation in a semi-arid savanna. Vegetatio 112:153-159.
28. Houghton, J. T., G. Micra, B. Filho, B. A. Callander, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, and K. Maskell, editors. 1996. Climate change 1995: the science of climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
29. Hubbard, J. A., and G. R. McPherson. 1999. Do seed predation and dispersal limit downslope movement of a semidesert grassland/oak woodland transition? Journal of Vegetation Science 10:739-744.
30. Hurtt, G. C., P. R. Moorcroft, S. W. Pacala, and S. A. Levin. 1998. Terrestrial models and global change: challenges for the future. Global Change Biology 4:581-590.
31. 2 concentration. Climatological Publications; Scientific Paper No. 17, Laboratory of Climatology, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA.
32. Iverson, L. R., and A. M. Prasad. 1998. Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the eastern United States. Ecological Monographs 68:465-485.
33. Johnsen, T. N., Jr. 1962. One-seed juniper invasion of northern Arizona grassland. Ecological Monographs 32:187-207.
34. Kattenberg, A., F. Giorgi, H. Grassl, G. A. Meehl, J. F. B. Mitchell, R. J. Stouffer, T. Tokioka, A. J. Weaver, and T. M. L. Wigley. 1996. Climate models - projections of future climate. Pages 285-357 in J. T. Houghton, G. Miera, B. Filho, B. A. Callander, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, and K. Maskell, editors. Climate change 1995: the science of climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
35. Kemp, P. R. 1983. Phenological patterns of Chihuahuan desert plants in relation to the timing of water availability. Journal of Ecology 71:427-436.
36. Knoop, W. T., and B. H. Walker. 1985. Interactions of woody and herbaceous vegetation in a southern African savanna. Journal of Ecology 73:235-253.
37. Lauenroth W. K., D. L. Urban, D. P. Coffin, W. J. Parton, H. H. Shugart, T. B. Kirchner, and T. M. Smith. 1993. Modeling vegetation structure - ecosystem process interactions across sites and ecosystems. Ecological Modelling 67:49-80.
38. Mahlman, J. D. 1997. Uncertainties in projections of human-caused climate warming. Science 278:1416-1417.
39. Manabe, S., and R. T. Wetherald. 1986. Reduction in summer soil wetness induced by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Science 232:626-628.
40. Martin, P. H. 1996. Climate change, water stress, and fast forest response: a sensitivity study. Climatic Change 34: 223-230.
41. McClaran, M. P., and G. R. McPherson. 1995. Can soil organic carbon isotopes be used to describe grass - tree dynamics at a savanna - grassland ecotone and within the savanna? Journal of Vegetation Science 6:857-862.
42. McClaran, M. P., and G. R. McPherson. 1999. Oak savanna in the American Southwest. Pages 275-287 in R. C. Anderson, J. S. Fralish, and J. M. Baskin, editors. Savannas, barrens, and rock outcrop plant communities of North America. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
43. McPheson, G. R. 1992. Ecology of oak woodlands in Arizona. Pages 24-33 in P. F. Ffoliott, G. J. Gottfried, D. A. Bennett, V. M. Hernandez C., A. Ortega-Rubio, and R. H. Hamre, technical coordinators. Ecology and management of oak and associated woodlands: perspectives in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. U.S. Forest Service General Technical Report RM-218.
44. McPherson, G. R. 1993. Effects of herbivory and herbs on oak establishment in a semi-arid temperate savanna. Journal of Vegetation Science 4:687-692.
45. McPherson, G. R. 1997. Ecology and management of North American savannas. University of Arizona Press, Tucson, Arizona, USA.
46. McPherson, G. R., T. W. Boutton, and A. J. Midwood. 1993. Stable carbon isotope analysis of soil organic matter illustrates vegetation change at the grassland/woodland boundary in southeastern Arizona, USA. Oecologia 93:95-101.
47. McPherson, G. R., and H. A. Wright. 1990. Establishment of Juniperus pinchotii in western Texas: environmental effects. Journal of Arid Environments 19:283-287.
48. Melillo, J. M., A. D. McGuire, D. W. Kicklighter, B. Moore III, C. J. Vorosmarty, and A. L. Schloss. 1993. Global climate change and terrestrial net primary production. Nature 363:234-240.
49. Mitchell, J. F. B., S. Manabe, V. Meleshko, and T. Tokioka. 1990. Equilibrium climate change and its implications for the future. Pages 131-172 in J. T. Houghton, G. J. Jenkins, and J. J. Ephraums, editors. Climate change: the IPCC scientific assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
50. 2. Nature 330:238-240.
51. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 1996. Climatological data annual summary: Arizona. Department of Commerce, Asheville, North Carolina, USA.
52. Neilson, R. P. 1986. High-resolution climatic analysis and southwest biogeography. Science 232:27-34.
53. Neilson, R. P. 1993. Transient ecotone response to climatic change: some conceptual and modeling approaches. Ecological Applications 3:385-395.
54. Neilson, R. P., and R. J. Drapek. 1998. Potentially complex biosphere responses to transient global warming. Global Change Biology 4:505-521.
55. Neilson, R. P., G. A. King, and G. Koerper. 1992. Toward a rule-based biome model. Landscape Ecology 7:27-43.
56. Neilson, R. P., and L. H. Wullstein. 1983. Biogeography of two southwest American oaks in relation to atmospheric dynamics. Journal of Biogeography 10:275-297.
57. Nelson, E. W. 1934. The influence of grazing and precipitation upon black grama grass range. USDA Technical Bulletin 409.
58. Nicks, A. D., and L. J. Lane. 1989. Weather generator. Pages 2.1-2.19 in L. J. Lane and M. A. Nearing, editors. USDA -Water erosion prediction project: hillslope profile model documentation. NSERL Report No. 2, USDA-ARS National Soil Erosion Research Laboratory, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA.
59. Nyandiga, C. O., and G. R. McPherson. 1992. Germination of two warm-temperate oaks, Quercus emoryi and Quercus arizonica. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 22:1395-1401.
60. O'Connor, T. G. 1995. Acacia karoo invasion of grassland: environmental and biotic effects influencing seedling emergence and establishment. Oecologia 103:214-223.
61. Pase, C. P. 1969. Survival of Quercus turbinella and Quercus emoryi in an Arizona chaparral community. Southwestern Naturalist 14:149-156.
62. 2-induced climate change. Nature 334:55-58.
63. Pechanec, J. E. and G. D. Pickford. 1937. A weight estimate method for determination of range or pasture production. Journal of the American Society of Agronomy 29:894-904.
64. Peláez, D. V., R. A. Distel, R. M. Bóo, O. R. Elia, and M. D. Mayor. 1994. Water relations between shrubs and grasses in semi-arid Argentina. Journal of Arid Environments 27:71-78.
65. Peters, R. L. 1990. Effects of global warming on forests. Forest Ecology and Management 35:13-33.
66. 2 concentrations? Pages 177-195 in C. Körner and F. A. Bazzaz, editors. Carbon dioxide, populations, and communities. Academic, San Diego, California, USA.
67. Richardson, D. M., and W. J. Bond. 1991. Determinants of plant distribution: evidence from pine invasions. American Naturalist 137:639-668.
68. Sala, O. E., R. A. Golluscio, W. K. Lauenroth, and A. Soriano. 1989. Resource partitioning between shrubs and grasses in the Patagonian steppe. Oecologia 49:101-110.
69. Sanchini, P. J. 1981. Population structure and fecundity patterns in Quercus emoryi and Quercus arizonica in southeastern Arizona. Dissertation. University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA.
70. SAS Institute. 1989. SAS/STAT user's guide, version 6. Fourth edition. SAS Institute, Cary, North Carolina, USA.
71. SAS Institute. 1996. SAS/STAT software: changes and enhancements through release 6. 11. SAS Institute, Cary, North Carolina, USA.
72. Scheffé, H. 1953. A method of judging all contrasts in the analysis of variance. Biometrika 40:87-104.
73. Schlesinger, M. E., and J. F. B. Mitchell. 1987. Climate model simulations of the equilibrium climatic response to increased carbon dioxide. Review of Geophysics 25:760-798.
74. Schneider, S. H. 1993. Scenarios of global warming. Pages 9-23 in P. M. Kareiva, J. G. Kingsolver, and R. B. Huey, editors. Biotic interactions and global change. Sinauer, Sunderland, Massachusetts, USA.
75. Scholes, R. J., and S. R. Archer. 1997. Tree-grass interactions in savannas. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 28:517-544.
76. Schulze, E.-D., H. A. Mooney, O. E. Sala, E. Jobbagy, N. Buchmann, G. Bauer, J. Canadell, R. B. Jackson, J. Loreti, M. Oesterheld, and J. R. Ehleringer. 1996. Rooting depth, water availability, and vegetation cover along an aridity gradient in Patagonia. Oecologia 108:503-511.
77. Schupp, E. W. 1995. Seed-seedling conflicts, habitat choice, and patterns of plant recruitment. American Journal of Botany 82:399-409.
78. Shapiro, S. S., and M. B. Wilk. 1965. An analysis of variance test for normality (complete samples). Biometrika 52:591-611.
79. Skarpe, C. 1991. Spatial patterns and dynamics of woody vegetation in an arid savanna. Journal of Vegetation Science 2:565-572.
80. 2-induced climate change: simulation modeling experiments in eastern North America. Oecologia 68:567-579.
81. Stephenson, N. L. 1990. Climatic control of vegetation distribution: the role of the water balance. American Naturalist 135:649-670.
82. USDA. 1994. Soil survey of Fort Huachucal, Cochise County, Arizona. Prepared for the U.S. Department of the Army. USDA Soil Conservation Service, Washington, D.C., USA.
83. 2 doubling. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 9:407-437.
84. von Ende, C. N. 1993. Pages 113-137 in S. M. Scheiner and J. Gurevitch, editors. Design and analysis of ecological experiments. Chapman and Hall, New York, New York, USA.
85. Walker, B. H. 1996. Predicting a future terrestrial biosphere: challenges to GCTE science. Pages 595-607 in B. Walker and W. Steffen. Global change and terrestrial ecosystems. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
86. Walter, H. 1954. Die verbuschung, eine erscheinung der subtropischen savannengebiete, und ihre ökologischen urscachen. Vegetatio 5/ 6:6-10.
87. Walter, H. 1979. Vegetation of the earth and ecological systems of the geo-biosphere. Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA.
88. Warner, R. R., and P. L. Chesson. 1985. Coexistence mediated by recruitment fluctuations: a field guide to the storage effect. American Naturalist 125:769-787.
89. Weaver, J. E., and F. E. Clements. 1929. Plant ecology. McGraw-Hill, New York, New York, USA.
90. Weltzin, J. F. S. Archer, and R. K. Heitschmidt. 1997. Small-mammal regulation of vegetation structure in a temperate savanna. Ecology 78:751-763.
91. Weltzin, J. F., and G. R. McPherson. 1995. Potential effects of climate change on lower treelines in the southwestern United States. Pages 180-193 in L. F. DeBano, G. J. Gottfried, R. H. Hamre, C. B. Edminster, P. F. Ffolliott, and A. Ortega-Rubio, technical coordinators. Biodiversity and management of the Madrean Archipelago: the sky islands of southwestern United States and Northwestern Mexico. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report RM-264.
92. Weltzin, J. F., and G. R. McPherson. 1997. Spatial and temporal soil moisture resource partitioning by trees and grasses in a temperate savanna. Arizona, USA. Oecologia 112: 156-164.
93. Weltzin, J. F., and G. R. McPherson. 1999. Facilitation of conspecific seedling recruitment and shifts in temperate savanna ecotones. Ecological Monographs 69:513-534.
94. Whittaker, R. H. 1975. Communities and ecosystems. Second edition. Macmillan, New York, New York, USA.
95. Wilson, J. B., and A. D. Q. Agnew. 1992. Positive-feedback switches in plant communities. Advances in Ecological Research 23:263-336.
96. Woodward, F. I. 1992. A review of the effects of climate on vegetation: ranges, competition, and composition. Pages 105-123 in R. L. Peters and T. E. Lovejoy, editors. Global warming and biological diversity. Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
97. Woodward, F. I., and S. E. Lee. 1995. Global scale forest function and distribution. Forestry 68:317-325.
98. Zar, J. H. 1996. Biostatistical analysis. Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey, USA.