Assessment and comparison of prognostic classification schemes for survival data

Statistics in Medicine

Volumn 18, Issue 17-18, 1999, Pages 2529-2545

  Graf, Erika ^a   Schmoor, Claudia ^a   Sauerbrei, Willi ^a   Schumacher, Martin ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF FREIBURG   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLASSIFICATION; CONFERENCE PAPER; INTERMETHOD COMPARISON; METHODOLOGY; PROGNOSIS; SURVIVAL RATE;

EID: 0033619170     PISSN: 02776715     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(19990915/30)18:17/18<2529::aid-sim274>3.0.co;2-5     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (61)

1. Wyatt, J. C. and Altman, D. G. 'Commentary: prognostic models: clinically useful or quickly forgotten?', British Medical Journal, 311, 1539-1541 (1995).
2. Simon, R. and Altman, D. G. 'Statistical aspects of prognostic factor studies in oncology', British Journal of Cancer, 69, 979-985 (1994).
3. Laupacis, A., Sekar, N. and Stiell, I. G. 'Clinical prediction rules: a review and suggested modifications of methodological standards', Journal of the American Medical Association, 277, 488-494 (1997).
4. Parkes, M. C. 'Accuracy of predictions of survival in later stages of cancer', British Medical Journal, 264, 29-31 (1972).
5. Forster, L. A. and Lynn, J. 'Predicting life span for applicants to inpatient hospice', Archives of Internal Medicine, 148, 2540-2543 (1988).
6. Maltoni, M., Pirovano, M., Scarpi, E., Marinari, M., Indelli, M., Arnoldi, E., Galluci, M., Frontini, L., Piva, L. and Amadori, D. 'Prediction of survival of patients terminally ill with cancer', Cancer, 75, 2613-2622 (1995).
7. Henderson, R. and Jones, M. 'Prediction in survival analysis: model or medic?', in Jewell, N. P., Kimber, A. C., Ting Lee, M-L. and Withmore, G. A. (eds), Lifetime Data: Models in Reliability and Survival Analysis, Kluwer Academic publishers, Dordrecht, 1995.
8. Mackillop, W. J. and Quirt, C. F. 'Measuring the accuracy of prognostic judgements in oncology', Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 50, 21-29 (1997).
9. Henderson, R. 'Problems and prediction in survival-data analysis', Statistics in Medicine, 14, 143-152 (1995).
10. Harrell, F. E., Lee, K. L. and Mark, D. B. 'Multivariable prognostic models: issues in developing models, evaluating assumptions and adequacy, and measuring and reducing errors', Statistics in Medicine, 15, 361-387 (1996).
11. Sauerbrei, W., Hübner, K., Schmoor, C. and Schumacher, M. for the German Breast Cancer Study Group. 'Validation of existing and development of new prognostic classification schemes in node negative breast cancer', Breast Cancer Research and Treatment, 42, 149-163 (1997). Correction, Breast Cancer Research and Treatment, 48, 191-192 (1998).
12. Sauerbrei, W., Hübner, K., Schmoor, C. and Schumacher, M. for the German Breast Cancer Study Group. 'Validation of existing and development of new prognostic classification schemes in node negative breast cancer', Breast Cancer Research and Treatment, 42, 149-163 (1997). Correction, Breast Cancer Research and Treatment, 48, 191-192 (1998).
13. van Houwelingen, J. C. and le Cessie, S. 'Predictive value of statistical models', Statistics in Medicine, 9, 1303-1325 (1990).
14. Korn, E. L. and Simon, R. 'Measures of explained variation for survival data', Statistics in Medicine, 9, 487-503 (1990).
15. Hand, D. J. Construction and Assessment of Classification Rules, Wiley, Chichester, 1997.
16. Haybittle, J. L., Blamey, R. W., Elston, C. W., Johnson, J., Doyle, P. J., Campbell, F. C., Nicholoson, R. I. and Griffiths, K. 'A prognostic index in primary breast cancer', British Journal of Cancer, 45, 361-366 (1982).
17. Galea, M. H., Blamey, R. W., Elston, C. E. and Ellis, I. O. 'The Nottingham Prognostic Index in primary breast cancer', Breast Cancer Research and Treatment, 22, 207-219 (1992).
18. Cox, D. R. 'Regression models and life tables (with discussion)', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 34, 187-220 (1972).
19. Breiman, L., Friedman, J. H., Ohlsen, R. A. and Stone, C. J. Classification and Regression Trees, Wadsworth, Belmont, 1984.
20. Kaplan, E. L. and Meier, P. 'Nonparametric estimation from incomplete observations', Journal of the American Statistical Association, 53, 457-481 (1958).
21. Andersen, P. K., Christensen, E., Fauerholdt, L. and Schlichting, P. 'Measuring prognosis using the proportional hazards regression model', Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 10, 49-52 (1983).
22. Peto, R., Pike, M. C., Armitage, P., Breslow, N. E., Cox, D. R., Howard, S., Mantel, N., McPherson, K., Peto, J. and Smith, P. 'Design and analysis of clinical trials requiring prolonged observation of each patient. Part I', British Journal of Cancer, 34, 585-612 (1976). Part II, British Journal of Cancer, 35, 1-39 (1977).
23. Peto, R., Pike, M. C., Armitage, P., Breslow, N. E., Cox, D. R., Howard, S., Mantel, N., McPherson, K., Peto, J. and Smith, P. 'Design and analysis of clinical trials requiring prolonged observation of each patient. Part I', British Journal of Cancer, 34, 585-612 (1976). Part II, British Journal of Cancer, 35, 1-39 (1977).
24. Shapiro, A. R. 'The evaluation of clinical predictions', New England Journal of Medicine, 296, 1509-1514 (1997).
25. Hilden, J., Habbema, J. D. F. and Bjerregard, B. 'The measurement of performance in probabilistic diagnosis III: methods based on continuous functions of the diagnostic probabilities', Methods of Information in Medicine, 17, 238-246 (1978).
26. Habbema, J. D. F. and Hilden, J. 'The measurement of performance in probabilistic diagnosis IV: Utility considerations in therapeutics and prognostics', Methods of Information in Medicine, 20, 80-96 (1981).
27. Brier, G. W. 'Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability', Monthly Weather Review, 78, 1-3 (1950).
28. Winkler, R. L. 'The quantification of judgement: some methodological suggestions', Journal of the American Statistical Association, 62, 1105-1120 (1967).
29. Winkler, R. L. and Murphy, A. H. '"Good" probability assessors', Journal of Applied Meteorology, 7, 751-758 (1968).
30. Spiegelhalter, D. J. 'Probabilistic prediction in patient management and clinical trials', Statistics in Medicine, 5, 421-433 (1986).
31. Linnet, K. 'Assessing diagnostic tests by a strictly proper scoring rule', Statistics in Medicine, 8, 609-618 (1989).
32. Yates, J. F. 'External correspondence: Decomposition of the mean probability score', Organizational Behaviour and Human Performance, 30, 132-156 (1982).
33. Schmitz, P. I. M., Habbema, J. D. F. and Hermans, J. 'The performance of logistic discrimination on myocardial infarction data, in comparison with some other discriminant analysis methods', Statistics in Medicine, 2, 199-205 (1983).
34. Graf, E. 'Explained variation measures for survival data', PhD thesis, University of Freiburg (in German), 1998.
35. Graf, E. 'Explained variation measures in survival analysis', in Armitage, P. and Colton, T. (eds), Encyclopedia of Biostatistics, Vol. 2, Wiley, Chichester, 1998, pp. 1441-1443.
36. Graf, E. and Schumacher, M. 'An investigation on measures of explained variation in survival analysis', Statistician, 44, 497-507 (1995).
37. Korn, E. J. and Simon, R. 'Explained residual variation, explained risk and goodness of fit', American Statistician, 45, 201-206 (1991).
38. Schemper, M. 'The explained variation in proportional hazards regression', Biometrika, 77, 216-218 (1990). Correction, 81, 631 (1994).
39. Schemper, M. 'The explained variation in proportional hazards regression', Biometrika, 77, 216-218 (1990). Correction, 81, 631 (1994).
40. Schemper, M. 'Further results on the explained variation in proportional hazards regression', Biometrika, 79, 202-204 (1992).
41. Schemper, M. and Stare, J. 'Explained variation in survival analysis', Statistics in Medicine, 15, 1999-2012 (1996).
42. Harrell, F. E., Lee, K. L., Califf, R. M., Pryor, D. B. and Rosati, R. A. 'Regression modelling strategies for improved prognostic prediction', Statistics in Medicine, 3, 143-152 (1984).
43. Lee, K. L., Pryor, D. B., Harrell, F. E., Califf, R. M., Behar, V. S., Floyd, W. L., Morris, J. M., Waugh, R. A., Whalen, R. E. and Rosati, R. A. 'Predicting outcome in coronary disease: statistical models versus expert clinicians', American Journal of Medicine, 80, 553-560 (1986).
44. Kong, D. F., Lee, K. L., Harrell, F. E., Boswick, J. M., Mark, D. B., Hlatky, M. A., Califf, R. M. and Pryor, D. B. 'Clinical experience and predicting survival in coronary disease', Archives of Internal Medicine, 149, 1177-1181 (1989).
45. Hadorn, D. C., Draper, D., Rogers, W. H., Keeler, E. B. and Brook, R. H. 'Cross-validation performance of mortality prediction models', Statistics in Medicine, 11, 475-489 (1992).
46. Marshall, G., Grover, F. L., Henderson, W. G. and Hammermeister, K. E. 'Assessment of predictive models for binary outcomes: an empirical approach using operative death from cardiac surgery', Statistics in Medicine, 13, 1501-1511 (1994).
47. Lee, K. L., Woodlief, L. H., Topol, E. J., Weaver, D., Betriu, A., Col, J., Simoons, M., Aylward, P., Van de Werf, F. and Califf, R. M. 'Predictors of 30-day mortality in the era of reperfusion for acute myocardial infarction: Results from an international trial of 41.021 patients', Circulation, 91, 1659-1668 (1995).
48. Pelosio, P., Barbareschi, M., Bonoldi, E., Marchetti, A., Verderio, P., Caffo, O., Bevilacqua, P., Boracchi, P., Buttitta, F., Barbazza, R., Dalla Palma, P. and Gasparini, G. 'Clinical significance of cyclin D1 expression in patients with node-positive breast carcinoma treated with adjuvant therapy', Annals of Oncology, 7, 695-703 (1996).
49. Farraggi, D., Simon, R., Yaskil, E. and Kramar, A. 'Bayesian neural network models for censored data', Biometrical Journal, 39, 519-532 (1997).
50. McClish, D. K. and Powell, S. H. 'How well can physicians estimate mortality in a medical intensive care unit?', Medical Decision Making, 9, 125-132 (1989).
51. Katz, D. and Foxman, B. 'How well do prediction equations predict? Using receiver operating characteristic curves and accuracy curves to compare validity and generalizability', Epidemiology, 4, 319-326 (1993).
52. Detrano, R. 'Accuracy curves: An alternative graphical representation of probability data', Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 42, 983-986 (1989).
53. Hermans, J., Van Zomeren, B., Raatgever, W., Sterk, P. J. and Habbema, J. D. F. 'Use of posterior probabilities to evaluate methods of discriminate analysis', Methods of Information in Medicine, 20, 207-212 (1981).
54. Burke, H. B. 'Artificial neural networks for cancer research: outcome prediction', Seminars in Surgical Oncology, 10, 73-79 (1994).
55. Botacci, L., Drew, P. J., Hartley, J. E., Hadfield, M. B., Farouk, R., Lee, P. W. R., Macintyre, I. M. C., Duthie, G. S. and Monson, J. R. T. 'Artificial neural networks applied to outcome prediction for colorectal cancer patients in separate institutions', Lancet, 350, 469-472 (1997).
56. Efron, B. 'Estimating the error rate of a prediction rule: improvement on cross-validation', Journal of the American Statistical Association, 78, 316-330 (1983).
57. Efron, B. and Tibshirani, R. 'Improvement on cross-validation: the .632 + bootstrap method', Journal of the American Statistical Association, 92, 548-560 (1997).
58. Schumacher, M., Holländer, N. and Sauerbrei, W. 'Resampling and cross-validation techniques: a tool to reduce bias caused by model building?', Statistics in Medicine, 16, 2813-2827 (1997).
59. Ripley, B. D. Pattern Recognition and Neural Networks. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1996.
60. Rowan, K. M., Kerr, J. H., McPherson, K., Short, A. and Vessey, M. P. 'Intensive Care Society's APACHE II Study in Britian and Ireland-II: Outcome comparisons of intensive care units after adjustment for case mix by the American APACHE II method', British Medical Journal, 307, 977-981 (1993).
61. Breslow, N. E. 61nd Day, N. E. Statistical Methods in Cancer Research, Vol. I: The Analysis of Case-Control Studies, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, 1980.