The U.S. carbon budget: Contributions from land-use change

Science

Volumn 285, Issue 5427, 1999, Pages 574-578

  Houghton, R A ^a   Hackler, J L ^a   Lawrence, K T ^a  

^a WOODS HOLE RESEARCH CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CARBON BUDGET; LAND USE; TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEM;

AIR MONITORING; AIR POLLUTION; ARTICLE; BIOMASS; ECOSYSTEM; ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; FOREST; PLANT GROWTH; PRIORITY JOURNAL; TREE; UNITED STATES;

UNITED STATES;

EID: 0033597832     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.285.5427.574     Document Type: Article

References (65)

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2. R. A. Birdsey and L. S. Heath, in Productivity of America's Forest and Climatic Change, General Technical Report RM-GTR-271, L. A. Joyce, Eds. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Fort Collins, CO, 1995), pp. 56-70.
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5. The exception to this statement is the ability of forest inventory data to identify the importance of past disturbances to current rates of growth [W. A. Kurz and M. J. Apps, Ecol. Appl. 9, 526 (1999)].
6. Major Land Uses 1945-1992, Stock #89003 (USDA, Economic Research Service, Washington, DC, 1996).
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8. Forest Service Cooperative Fire Protection Program Wildfire Statistics 1926-1990 (USDA, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1926-1990).
9. H. A. Mooney et al., Eds., Proceedings of the Conference: Fire Regimes and Ecosystem Properties, USDA Forest Service General Technical Report WO-26 (USDA, U.S. Forest Service, Washington, DC, 1981).
10. S. J. Pyne, Fire in America: A Cultural History of Wildland and Rural Fire (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 1982; reprinted by the University of Washington Press, Seattle, WA, 1997); Introduction to Wildland Fire: Fire Management in the United States (Wiley, New York, 1984).
11. S. J. Pyne, Fire in America: A Cultural History of Wildland and Rural Fire (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 1982; reprinted by the University of Washington Press, Seattle, WA, 1997); Introduction to Wildland Fire: Fire Management in the United States (Wiley, New York, 1984).
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14. _, K. T. Lawrence, ibid., in press.
15. Current (1990) areas, together with changes in land use between 1700 and 1990, determined the starting (1700) areas for each ecosystem [R. G. Bailey, Description of the Ecoregions of the United States, Miscellaneous Publication Number 1391 (USDA, Forest Service, Washington, DC, ed 2, 1995)].
16. R. A. Birdsey, Carbon Storage and Accumulation in the United States Forest Ecosystems, Forest Service General Technical Report WO-59 (USDA, Washington, DC, 1992); S. Brown, P. Schroeder, R. Birdsey, For. Ecol. Manage. 96, 37 (1997); P. Schroeder, S. Brown, J. Mo, R. Birdsey, C. Cieszewski, For. Sci. 43, 424 (1997); IGBP 1-km land cover classification database (generated by the U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, and the European Commission's Joint Research Centre), available at http:// edcwww.cr.usgs.gov/landdaac/glcc/glcc.html.
17. R. A. Birdsey, Carbon Storage and Accumulation in the United States Forest Ecosystems, Forest Service General Technical Report WO-59 (USDA, Washington, DC, 1992); S. Brown, P. Schroeder, R. Birdsey, For. Ecol. Manage. 96, 37 (1997); P. Schroeder, S. Brown, J. Mo, R. Birdsey, C. Cieszewski, For. Sci. 43, 424 (1997); IGBP 1-km land cover classification database (generated by the U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, and the European Commission's Joint Research Centre), available at http:// edcwww.cr.usgs.gov/landdaac/glcc/glcc.html.
18. R. A. Birdsey, Carbon Storage and Accumulation in the United States Forest Ecosystems, Forest Service General Technical Report WO-59 (USDA, Washington, DC, 1992); S. Brown, P. Schroeder, R. Birdsey, For. Ecol. Manage. 96, 37 (1997); P. Schroeder, S. Brown, J. Mo, R. Birdsey, C. Cieszewski, For. Sci. 43, 424 (1997); IGBP 1-km land cover classification database (generated by the U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, and the European Commission's Joint Research Centre), available at http:// edcwww.cr.usgs.gov/landdaac/glcc/glcc.html.
19. M. E. Harmon, S. L. Garman, W. K. Ferrell, Ecol. Appl. 6, 641 (1996); I. K. Wernick, P. E. Waggoner, J. H. Ausubet, J. Ind. Ecol. 1, 125 (1998).
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21. -1, corresponding to burned material (including fuel wood), paper, and lumber, respectively.
22. -1 depending on the type of forest and its age [G. L. Ajtay, P. Ketner, P. Duvigneaud, in The Global Carbon Cycle, B. Bolin, E. T. Degens, S. Kempe, P. Ketner, Eds. (Wiley, New York, 1979), pp. 129-182; D. E. Reichte, Ed., Dynamic Properties of Forest Ecosystems (Cambridge Univ. Press, New York, 1981); J. S. Olson, J. A. Watts, L. J. Allison, TR004 (U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC, 1983)].
23. -1 depending on the type of forest and its age [G. L. Ajtay, P. Ketner, P. Duvigneaud, in The Global Carbon Cycle, B. Bolin, E. T. Degens, S. Kempe, P. Ketner, Eds. (Wiley, New York, 1979), pp. 129-182; D. E. Reichte, Ed., Dynamic Properties of Forest Ecosystems (Cambridge Univ. Press, New York, 1981); J. S. Olson, J. A. Watts, L. J. Allison, TR004 (U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC, 1983)].
24. -1 depending on the type of forest and its age [G. L. Ajtay, P. Ketner, P. Duvigneaud, in The Global Carbon Cycle, B. Bolin, E. T. Degens, S. Kempe, P. Ketner, Eds. (Wiley, New York, 1979), pp. 129-182; D. E. Reichte, Ed., Dynamic Properties of Forest Ecosystems (Cambridge Univ. Press, New York, 1981); J. S. Olson, J. A. Watts, L. J. Allison, TR004 (U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC, 1983)].
25. R. A. Houghton and J. L. Hackler, ORNL/CDIAC-79, NDP-050 (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 1995).
26. The areas of forest burned each year were too large to allow recovery of biomass if the fires were assumed to be stand-replacing (high mortality) fires. We used the combination of burned areas, total areas of forest, and regrowth rates to define a burning cyde in which the same (young) forests were burned repeatedly and older, high-biomass forests were bumed only when rates of burning increased. The cyde is consistent with the observation that recently bumed forests are more likely to bum than mature forests [G. G. Whitney, From Coastal Wilderness to Fruited Plain. A History of Environmental Change in Temperate North America from 7500 to the Present (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1994)] and with the fact that certain low-biomass ecosystems (savannas and woodlands) burn more frequently than dense forests (9, 10). When rates of burning decreased through fire suppression, our analysis allowed young, repeatedly burned forests to escape from the burn cycle and accumulate carbon. Although the burning cycle underestimates gross emissions and accumulations of carbon (12), it captures the net flux of carbon associated with changes in burning, that is, the net releases of carbon from increased rates of burning and the net accumulations from decreased rates.
27. 2 fertilization, the errors in the estimated Aux will be larger, especially toward the early years, because most data on rates of growth have been obtained in recent decades of research [see (26)].
28. -1 in the 1980s. The rate is an upper limit. Loss of soil carbon in the replacement of grasslands with shrubs may offset completely the increased woody biomass in some ecosystems [ W. H. Schlesinger and A. M. Pilmanis, Biogeochemistry 42, 169 (1998)].
29. -1 in the 1980s. The rate is an upper limit. Loss of soil carbon in the replacement of grasslands with shrubs may offset completely the increased woody biomass in some ecosystems [ W. H. Schlesinger and A. M. Pilmanis, Biogeochemistry 42, 169 (1998)].
30. -1 in the 1980s. The rate is an upper limit. Loss of soil carbon in the replacement of grasslands with shrubs may offset completely the increased woody biomass in some ecosystems [ W. H. Schlesinger and A. M. Pilmanis, Biogeochemistry 42, 169 (1998)].
31. -1 in the 1980s. The rate is an upper limit. Loss of soil carbon in the replacement of grasslands with shrubs may offset completely the increased woody biomass in some ecosystems [ W. H. Schlesinger and A. M. Pilmanis, Biogeochemistry 42, 169 (1998)].
32. -1 in the 1980s. The rate is an upper limit. Loss of soil carbon in the replacement of grasslands with shrubs may offset completely the increased woody biomass in some ecosystems [ W. H. Schlesinger and A. M. Pilmanis, Biogeochemistry 42, 169 (1998)].
33. -1 in the 1980s. The rate is an upper limit. Loss of soil carbon in the replacement of grasslands with shrubs may offset completely the increased woody biomass in some ecosystems [ W. H. Schlesinger and A. M. Pilmanis, Biogeochemistry 42, 169 (1998)].
34. -1 in the 1980s. The rate is an upper limit. Loss of soil carbon in the replacement of grasslands with shrubs may offset completely the increased woody biomass in some ecosystems [ W. H. Schlesinger and A. M. Pilmanis, Biogeochemistry 42, 169 (1998)].
35. -1 in the 1980s. The rate is an upper limit. Loss of soil carbon in the replacement of grasslands with shrubs may offset completely the increased woody biomass in some ecosystems [ W. H. Schlesinger and A. M. Pilmanis, Biogeochemistry 42, 169 (1998)].
36. -1 in the 1980s. The rate is an upper limit. Loss of soil carbon in the replacement of grasslands with shrubs may offset completely the increased woody biomass in some ecosystems [ W. H. Schlesinger and A. M. Pilmanis, Biogeochemistry 42, 169 (1998)].
37. -1 in the 1980s. The rate is an upper limit. Loss of soil carbon in the replacement of grasslands with shrubs may offset completely the increased woody biomass in some ecosystems [ W. H. Schlesinger and A. M. Pilmanis, Biogeochemistry 42, 169 (1998)].
38. -1 over the past 90 years. These processes are well documented for individual sites, but their spatial extent is largely unknown. The calculated rates of carbon uptake are exaggerated and may be attributable more to changes in climate than to changes in management [T. W. Swetnam and J. L. Betancourt, J. Clim. 11, 3128 (1998)].
39. -1 over the past 90 years. These processes are well documented for individual sites, but their spatial extent is largely unknown. The calculated rates of carbon uptake are exaggerated and may be attributable more to changes in climate than to changes in management [T. W. Swetnam and J. L. Betancourt, J. Clim. 11, 3128 (1998)].
40. -1 over the past 90 years. These processes are well documented for individual sites, but their spatial extent is largely unknown. The calculated rates of carbon uptake are exaggerated and may be attributable more to changes in climate than to changes in management [T. W. Swetnam and J. L. Betancourt, J. Clim. 11, 3128 (1998)].
41. -1 over the past 90 years. These processes are well documented for individual sites, but their spatial extent is largely unknown. The calculated rates of carbon uptake are exaggerated and may be attributable more to changes in climate than to changes in management [T. W. Swetnam and J. L. Betancourt, J. Clim. 11, 3128 (1998)].
42. -1 over the past 90 years. These processes are well documented for individual sites, but their spatial extent is largely unknown. The calculated rates of carbon uptake are exaggerated and may be attributable more to changes in climate than to changes in management [T. W. Swetnam and J. L. Betancourt, J. Clim. 11, 3128 (1998)].
43. -1 over the past 90 years. These processes are well documented for individual sites, but their spatial extent is largely unknown. The calculated rates of carbon uptake are exaggerated and may be attributable more to changes in climate than to changes in management [T. W. Swetnam and J. L. Betancourt, J. Clim. 11, 3128 (1998)].
44. -1 over the past 90 years. These processes are well documented for individual sites, but their spatial extent is largely unknown. The calculated rates of carbon uptake are exaggerated and may be attributable more to changes in climate than to changes in management [T. W. Swetnam and J. L. Betancourt, J. Clim. 11, 3128 (1998)].
45. -1 over the past 90 years. These processes are well documented for individual sites, but their spatial extent is largely unknown. The calculated rates of carbon uptake are exaggerated and may be attributable more to changes in climate than to changes in management [T. W. Swetnam and J. L. Betancourt, J. Clim. 11, 3128 (1998)].
46. -1 over the past 90 years. These processes are well documented for individual sites, but their spatial extent is largely unknown. The calculated rates of carbon uptake are exaggerated and may be attributable more to changes in climate than to changes in management [T. W. Swetnam and J. L. Betancourt, J. Clim. 11, 3128 (1998)].
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49. It should be clear that we use the term "management" broadly. Much of the current sink attributed to management is a recovery from past use rather than a consequence of skillful environmental management.
50. Attributing growth to management, as opposed to environmental factors, is complicated because preindustrial rates of growth are not known. For our analysis, we obtained rates of growth from the literature (17), and, because most of the measurements were made after 1950, they may already include an enhanced rate of growth. If rates of growth have increased substantially over time, the emissions attributed to land-use change may have been underestimated in the early years of the analysis, whereas sinks may have been underestimated in recent decades.
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62. 2 emission estimates from fossil fuel burning, cement production, and gas flaring: 1751-1996 (revised March 1999; 1950-1996 estimates are preliminary), available at http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ndps/ndp030.html.
63. -1.
64. Soit carbon is not measured in forest inventories. Turner et al. (3) assumed soils to be in balance (net flux = 0); Birdsey and Heath (2) assumed that soils accumulated carbon in proportion to growth in aboveground biomass.
65. We are grateful to two anonymous reviewers whose comments helped improve the precision and clarity of the paper. Research was supported through the joint Program on Terrestrial Ecology and Global Change, grant number NAGW-4748 from the Terrestrial Ecology Program in NASA's Office of Earth Science.