"Hot hand": A critical analysis of enduring rivalries

Journal of Politics

Volumn 61, Issue 3, 1999, Pages 777-798

  Gartzke, Erik ^a   Simon, Michael W ^b  

^a PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0033245995     PISSN: 00223816     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/2647828     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Anderson, Paul A., and Timothy J. McKeown. 1987. "Changing Aspirations, Limited Attention, and War." World Politics 40 (October): 1-29.
2. Bennett, D. Scott. 1996. "Security, Bargaining, and the End of Interstate Rivalry." International Studies Quarterly 40 (June): 157-84.
3. Bennett, D. Scott. 1997. "Measuring Rivalry Termination, 1816-1992." Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (April): 227-54.
4. Brams, Steven J., and D. Marc Kilgour. 1987. "Threat Escalation and Crisis Stability: A Game-Theoretic Analysis." American Political Science Review 81 (September): 833-50.
5. Bremer, Stuart. 1980. "The Trials of Nations: An Improbable Application of Probability Theory," in The Correlates of War II: Testing Some Realpolitik Models, J. David Singer, ed. New York: Free Press.
6. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 1996. "Counterfactuals and International Affairs: Some Insights from Game Theory," in Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives, Philip E. Tetlock and Aaron Belkin, eds. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
7. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and David Lalman. 1992. War and Reason: Domestic and International Imperatives. New Haven: Yale University Press.
8. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, James D. Morrow, and Ethan R. Zorick. 1997. "Capabilities, Perception, and Escalation." American Political Science Review 91 (March): 15-27.
9. Cioffi-Revilla, Claudio, and Henrik Sommer. 1996. "The Political Uncertainty of Interstate Rivalries: A Punctuated Equilibrium Model," in Paul F. Diehl, ed., The Dynamics of Enduring Rivalries. Urbana-Champaign: University of Illinois Press.
10. Davis, William W., George T. Duncan, and Randolph M. Siverson. 1978. "The Dynamics of Warfare: 1816-1965." American Journal of Political Science 26 (November): 772-92.
11. Diehl, Paul F. 1985. "Contiguity and Military Escalation in Major Power Rivalries." Journal of Politics 47(4): 1203-11.
12. Duncan, George T., and Randolph M. Siverson. 1975. "Markov Chain Models for Conflict Analysis: Results from Sino-Indian Relations, 1959-1964." International Studies Quarterly 19 (September): 344-74.
13. Fearon, James D. 1994. "Signaling versus the Balance of Power and Interests: An Empirical Test of a Crisis Bargaining Model." Journal of Conflict Resolution 38 (June): 236-69.
14. Fearon, James D. 1995. "Rationalist Explanations for War." International Organization 49 (Summer): 379-414.
15. Gochman, Charles S., and Zeev Maoz. 1984. "Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1976: Procedures Patterns, and Insights." Journal of Conflict Resolution 28 (December): 585-615.
16. Goertz, Gary, and Paul F. Diehl. 1992. "The Empirical Importance of Enduring Rivalries." International Interactions 18(2): 151-63.
17. Goertz, Gary, and Paul F. Diehl. 1993. "Enduring Rivalries: Theoretical Constructs and Empirical Patterns." International Studies Quarterly 37 (June): 147-71.
18. Goertz, Gary, and Paul F. Diehl. 1995a. "The Initiation and Termination of Enduring Rivalries: The Impact of Political Shocks." American Journal of Political Science 39 (February): 30-52.
19. Goertz, Gary, and Paul F. Diehl. 1995b. "The 'Volcano Model' and Other Patterns in the Evolution of Enduring Rivalries." Presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Chicago.
20. Hensel, Paul R. 1994. "One Thing Leads to Another: Recurrent Militarized Disputes in Latin America, 1816-1986." Journal of Peace Research 31 (August): 281-97.
21. Hensel, Paul R. 1995. "Political Democracy and Militarized Conflict in Evolving Interstate Rivalries." Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago.
22. Hensel, Paul R. 1996. The Evolution of Interstate Rivalry. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Illinois.
23. Hogg, Robert T., and Allen T. Craig. 1995. Introduction to Mathematical Statistics. 5th ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
24. Huth, Paul, D. Scott Bennett, and Christopher Gelpi. 1992. "System Uncertainty, Risk Propensity, and International Conflict among the Great Powers." Journal of Conflict Resolution 36 (September): 478-517.
25. Huth, Paul, and Bruce Russett. 1993. "General Deterrence between Enduring Rivals: Testing Three Competing Models." American Political Science Review 87 (March): 61-73.
26. Jones, Daniel M., Stuart A. Bremer, and J. David Singer. 1996. "Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1992: Rationale, Coding Rules, and Empirical Patterns." Conflict Management and Peace Science 15 (Fall): 163-213.
27. Levy, Jack. 1982. "The Contagion of Great Power War Behavior, 1495-1975." American Journal of Political Science 26 (August): 562-84.
28. Lieberman, Elli. 1995. "What Makes Deterrence Work? Lessons from the Egyptian-Israeli Enduring Rivalry." Security Studies 4 (Summer): 851-90.
29. Maoz, Zeev. 1984. "The Expected Utility of International Conflict: Some Theoretical Problems and Empirical Surprises in The War Trap." University of Haifa. Typescript.
30. Maoz, Zeev, and Ben D. Mor. 1996. "Enduring Rivalries: The Early Years." International Political Science Review 17 (April): 141-60.
31. Maoz, Zeev, and Bruce Russett. 1993. "Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace, 1946-1986." American Political Science Review 87 (September): 624-38.
32. Midlarsky, Manus. 1984. "Preventing Systemic War: Crisis Decision-Making Amidst a Structure of Conflict Relationships." Journal of Conflict Resolution 28 (December): 563-84.
33. Morrow, James D. 1989. "Capabilities, Uncertainty, and Resolve: A Limited Information Model of Crisis Bargaining." American Journal of Political Science 33 (November): 941-72.
34. Olinick, Michael. 1978. An Introduction to Mathematical Models in the Social and Life Sciences. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
35. O'Rourke, P. J. 1994. All the Trouble in the World: The Lighter Side of Overpopulation, Famine Ecological Disaster, Ethnic Hatred, Plague, and Poverty. New York: Atlantic Monthly Press.
36. Rice, John A. 1988. Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis. Pacific Grove, CA: Wadsworth & Brooks.
37. Siverson, Randolph M., and Harvey Starr. 1990. "Opportunity, Willingness, and the Diffusion of War." American Political Science Review 84 (March): 47-67.
38. Siverson, Randolph M., and Harvey Starr. 1991. The Diffusion of War: A Study of Opportunity and Willingness. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
39. Smith, Alastair. 1995. "Alliance Formation and War." International Studies Quarterly 39 (December): 405-25.
40. Smith, Alastair. 1996. "To Intervene or Not to Intervene: A Biased Decision." Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (March): 16-40.
41. Thompson, William R. 1995. "Principal Rivalries." Journal of Conflict Resolution 39 (June): 195-223.
42. Vasquez, John A. 1996. "Distinguishing Rivals That Go to War from Those That Do Not: A Quantitative Comparative Case Study of the Two Paths to War." International Studies Quarterly 40 (December): 531-58.
43. Zagare, Frank C., and D. Marc Kilgour. 1993. "Asymmetric Deterrence." International Studies Quarterly 37 (March): 1-27.