The atmospheric response over the North Atlantic to decadal changes in sea surface temperature

Journal of Climate

Volumn 12, Issue 8 PART 2, 1999, Pages 2562-2584

  Venzke, Stephan ^a   Allen, M R ^b,c   Sutton, R T ^b,d   Rowell, D P ^e  

^a MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGY   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^c RUTHERFORD APPLETON LABORATORY   (United Kingdom)

^d UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

^e MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN SYSTEM; CLIMATE FORCING; DECADAL VARIATION; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE;

ATLANTIC OCEAN;

EID: 0033172677     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2562:tarotn>2.0.co;2     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Allen, M. R., and L. A. Smith, 1996: Monte Carlo SSA: Detecting irregular oscillations in the presence of colored noise. J. Climate, 9, 3373-3404.
2. _, and _, 1997: Optimal filtering in singular spectrum analysis. Phys. Lett., 234, 419-428.
3. _, P. A. Stott, S. F. B. Tett, and W. J. Ingram, 1997: Noise in model predictions and optimal fingerprinting. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 78 (Suppl.), 7126.
4. Barsugli, J. J., and D. S. Battisti, 1998: The basic effects of atmosphere-ocean thermal coupling on midlatitude variability. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 477-493.
5. Basnett, T. A., and D. E. Parker, 1997: Development of the global mean sea level pressure data set GMSLP2. Hadley Centre, Climate Research Tech. Note 79, 52 pp.
6. Cullen, M. J. P., 1993: The unified forecast/climate model. Meteor. Mag., 122, 81-94.
7. da Silva, A. M., C. C. Young, and S. Levitus, 1994: Atlas of Surface Marine Data. NOAA/NESDIS, 83 pp.
8. Davies, J. R., D. P. Rowell, and C. K. Folland, 1997: North Atlantic and European seasonal predictability using an ensemble of multidecadal AGCM simulations. Int. J. Climatol., 17, 1263-1284.
9. Deser, C., and M. L. Blackmon, 1993: Surface climate variations over the North Atlantic ocean during winter: 1900-1989. J. Climate, 6, 1743-1753.
10. Frankignoul, C., and K. Hasselmann, 1977: Stochastic climate models. Part II: Application to sea-surface temperature variability and thermocline variability. Tellus, 29, 284-305.
11. _, _, and E. Zorita, 1997: A simple model of the decadal response of the ocean to stochastic wind forcing. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 1523-1546.
12. Gates, W. L., 1992: AMIP: The atmospheric model intercomparison project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 73, 1962-1970.
13. Grötzner, A., M. Latif, and T. P. Barnett, 1998: A decadal climate cycle in the North Atlantic Ocean as simulated by the ECHO coupled GCM. J. Climate, 11, 831-847.
14. Hansen, D. V., and H. F. Bezdek, 1996: On the nature of decadal anomalies in North Atlantic sea surface temperature. J. Geophys. Res., 101, 8749-8758.
15. Hasselmann, K., 1976: Stochastic climate models. Part I: Theory. Tellus, 28, 473-485.
16. _, 1979: On the signal-to-noise problem in atmospheric response studies. Meteorology over the Tropical Oceans, D. B. Shaw, Ed., Royal Meteorological Society, 251-259.
17. _, 1997: Multi-pattern fingerprint method for detection and attribution of climate change. Climate Dyn., 13, 601-611.
18. Hegerl, G. C., H. von Storch, K. Hasselmann, U. Cubasch, B. D. Santer, and P. D. Jones, 1996: Detecting greenhouse gas induced climate change with an optimal fingerprint method. J. Climate, 9, 2281-2306.
19. Hurrell, J. W., 1995: Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation and relationships to regional temperature and precipitation. Science, 269, 676-679.
20. James, I. N., and P. M. James, 1989: Ultralow-frequency variability in a simple circulation model. Nature, 342, 53-55.
21. Kushnir, Y., and I. M. Held, 1996: Equilibrium atmospheric response to North Atlantic SST anomalies. J. Climate, 9, 1208-1220.
22. Latif, M., and T. P. Barnett. 1994: Causes of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America. Science, 266, 634-637.
23. Lean, J., J. Beer, and R. Bradley, 1995: Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1600: Implications for climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 22, 3195-3198.
24. Lorenz, E. N., 1956: Empirical orthogonal functions and statistical weather prediction. Scientific Rep. 1, Department of Meteorology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 49 pp. [Available from MIT, 77 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02139.]
25. _, 1963: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141.
26. _, 1990: Can chaos and intransitivity lead to interannual variability. Tellus, 42A, 378-389.
27. Palmer, T. N., and Z. Sun, 1985: A modelling and observational study of the relationship between sea surface temperature in the northwest Atlantic and the atmospheric general circulation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 111, 947-975.
28. _, and D. L. T. Anderson, 1994: The prospects for seasonal forecasting - A review paper. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 120, 755-793.
29. Parker, D. E., C. K. Folland, A. Bevan, M. N. Ward, M. Jackson, and F. Maskell, 1995: Marine surface data for analysis of climate fluctuations on interannual to century timescales. Natural Climate Variability on Decadal to Century Time scales, D. G. Martinson et al., Eds., National Academy Press., 241-250.
30. Peng, S., W. A. Robinson, and M. P. Hoerling, 1997: The modeled atmospheric response to midlatitude SST anomalies and its dependence on background circulation states. J. Climate, 10, 971-987.
31. Phillips, T. J., 1994: A summary documentation of the AMIP models. PCMDI Report No. 18, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA. [Avialable from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Ave., Livermore, CA 94550-9234.]
32. Pitcher, E. J., M. L. Blackmon, and S. Muñoz, 1988: The effect of North Pacific temperature anomalies on the January climate in a general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 173-188.
33. Renshaw, A. C., D. P. Rowell, and C. K. Folland, 1998: ENSO responses and low frequency weather variability in the North Pacific/American sector 1943-93. J. Climate, 11, 1073-1093.
34. Robock, A. D., and J. Mao, 1995: A volcanic signal in surface temperature observations. J. Climate, 8, 1086-1103.
35. Rogers, J. C., 1990: Patterns of low frequency monthly sea level pressure variability (1899-1986) and associated wave cyclone frequencies. J. Climate, 3, 1364-1379.
36. Rowell, D. P., 1998: Assessing potential seasonal predictability with an ensemble of multidecadal GCM simulations. J. Climate, 11, 109-120.
37. _, C. K. Folland, K. Maskell, and M. N. Ward, 1995: Variability of summer rainfall over tropical north Africa (1906-92): Observations and modelling. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 121, 669-704.
38. Saravanan, R., and J. C. McWilliams, 1998: Advective ocean-atmosphere interaction: An analytical stochastic model with implications for decadal variability. J. Climate, 11, 165-188.
39. Sutton, R. T., and M. R. Allen, 1997: Decadal predictability of North Atlantic sea surface temperature and climate. Nature, 388, 563-567.
40. Thacker, W. C., and R. Lewandowicz, 1996: Climate indices, principal components, and the Gauss-Markov theorem. J. Climate, 9, 1942-1958.
41. White, W. B., J. Lean, D. R. Cayan, and M. D. Dettinger, 1997: Response of global upper ocean temperature to changing solar irradiance. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 3255-3266.
42. Willmott, C. J., C. M. Rowe, and Y. Minz, 1985: A global archive of land cover and soils data for use in general circulation models. J. Climatol, 5, 119-143.
43. Zhang, Q., M. Brasseville, and A. Beneviste, 1994: Early warning of slight changes in systems. Automatica, 30, 95-113.