An integrated assessment framework for climate change and infectious diseases

Environmental Health Perspectives

Volumn 107, Issue 5, 1999, Pages 329-337

  Chan, Nathan Y ^a   Ebi, Kristie L ^b   Smith, Fraser ^c   Wilson, Thomas F ^b   Smith, Anne E ^d  

^a Talus Solutions Inc   (United States)

^b ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (United States)

^c Datafusion Inc   (United States)

^d CHARLES RIVER ASSOCIATES   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Infectious disease; Integrated assessment; Multidisciplinary framework; Vector borne disease

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE; ECONOMICS; FEEDBACK SYSTEM; GLOBAL CLIMATE; HEALTH; HUMAN; INFECTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; REVIEW; SOCIAL ASPECT;

EID: 0032865678     PISSN: 00916765     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1289/ehp.99107329     Document Type: Review

References (83)

1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press, 1996.
2. WRI. World Resources, 1996-1997. Washington, DC:World Resource Institute, 1997.
3. Liehne PFS. Climatic influences on mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. In: Greenhouse: Planning for Climate Change (Pearman GI, ed). Melbourne, Australia:CSIRO, 1988;752.
4. McMichael AJ, Haines A, Slooff R, Kovats S, eds. Climate Change and Human Health. Geneva:World Health Organization, 1996.
5. Washington Advisory Group. Climate Change and Vector-Borne and Other Infectious Disease: A Research Agenda. Report TR-109516. Washington, DC:Washington Advisory Group, 1997 [Available from Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA].
6. Gillett JD. Direct and indirect influences of temperature on the transmission of parasites from insects to man. In: The Effects of Meteorological Factors Upon Parasites (Taylor AER, Muller R, eds). Oxford: Blackwell, 1974;79-95.
7. Bouma MJ, Sondorp HE, van der Kaay HJ. Health and climate change [letter]. Lancet 343:302 (1994).
8. Boume MJ, Sondorp HE, van der Kaay HJ. Climate change and periodic epidemic malaria [letter]. Lancet 343:1440 (1994).
9. Bouma MJ, Poveda G, Rojas W, Chavasse D, Quinones M, Cox J, Patz J. Predicting high-risk years for malaria in Colombia using parameters of El Niño Southern Oscillation. Trop Med Int Health 2:1122-1127 (1997).
10. Loevinsohn ME. Climatic warming and increased malaria incidence in Rwanda. Lancet 343:714-718 (1994).
11. Patz JA, Strzepek K, Lele S, Hedden M, Greene S, Noden B, Hay SI, Kalkstein L, Beier JC. Predicting key malaria transmission factors, biting and entomological inoculation rates, using modelled soil moisture in Kenya. Trop Med Int Health 3:818-827 (1998).
12. Lindsay SW, Birley MH. Climate change and malaria transmission. Ann Trop Med Parisitol 90:573-588 (1996).
13. Lindsay SW, Parson L, Thomas CJ. Mapping the ranges and relative abundance of the two principal African malaria vectors, Anopheles gabiae sensu stricto and An. Arabiensis, using climate data. Proc R Soc Lon B 265:847-854 (1998).
14. Bradley DJ. Human tropical diseases in a changing environment. In: Environmental Change and Human Health. Ciba Foundation Symposium, Vol 175. Chichester, UK:Wiley, 1993;146-170.
15. Jetten TH, Takken W. Impact of climate change on malaria vectors. Change 18:10-12 (1994).
16. Jetten TH, Martens WJM, Takken W. Model simulations to estimate malaria risk under climate change. J Med Entomol 33:361-371 (1996).
17. Haile DG. Computer simulation of the effects of changes in weather patterns on vector-borne disease transmission. In: The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change in the United States (Smith JB, Tirpak DA, eds). Document 230-05-89-057. Washington, DC:U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1989;Appendix G, section 2-1.
18. Martens WJM, Wessen LW, Rotmans J, Jetten TH, McMichael AJ. Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk. Environ Health Perspect 103:458-464 (1995).
19. Martin PH, Lefebvre MG. Malaria and climate: sensitivity of malaria potential transmission to climate. Ambio 24(4):200-207 (1995).
20. Martens WJM. Climate change and malaria: exploring the risks. Med War 11:202-213 (1995).
21. Lindsay SW, Martens WJM. Malaria in the African highlands: past, present and future. Bull WHO 76:33-45 (1996).
22. Watts DM, Burke DS, Harrison BA, Whitmire RE, Nisalak A. Effect of temperature on the vector efficiency of Aedes aegypti for Dengue-2 virus. Am J Trop Med Hyg 36:143-152 (1987).
23. Koopman JS, Prevost DR, Marin MAV, Dantes HG, Aquino MLZ, Longini Jr IM, Amor JS. Determinants and predictors of dengue infection in Mexico. Am J Epidemiol 133:1168-1178 (1991).
24. Herrera-Basto E, Prevots DR, Zarate, ML, Silva JL, Amor JS. First reported outbreak of classical dengue fever at 1700 meters above sea level in Guerrero State, Mexico, June 1988. Am J Trop Med Hyg 46:649-653 (1992).
25. Ward MA, Burgess NR. Aedes albopictus. a new disease vector for Europe? J R Army Med Corps 139:109-111 (1993).
26. Focks DA, Haile DG, Daniels E, Mount GA. Dynamic life table model for Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae): simulation results and validation. J Med Entomol 30:1018-1026 (1993).
27. Focks DA, Daniels E, Haile DG, Keesling JE. A simulation model of the epidemiology of urban dengue fever: literature analysis, model development preliminary validation, and samples of simulation results. Am J Trop Med Hyg 53:489-506 (1995).
28. Patz JA, Martens WJM, Focks DA, Jetten TH. Dengue fever epidemic potential as projected by general circulation models of global climate change. Environ Health Perspect 106:147-153 (1998).
29. Jetten TH, Focks DA. Changes in the distribution of dengue transmission under climate warming scenarios. Am J Trop Med Hyg 57:285-297 (1997).
30. Colwell RR, Huq A. Environmental reservoir of Vibrio choleras. In: Disease in Evolution: Global Changes and Emergence of Infectious Diseases (Wilson ME, Levins R, Spielman A, eds). Ann N Y Acad Sci 740:44-54 (1994).
31. Huq A, West PA, Small EB, Huq MI, Colwell RR. Influence of water temperature, salinity and pH on survival and growth of toxigenic Vibrio choleras serovar 01 associated with live copepods in laboratory microcosm. Appl Environ Microbiol 48:420-424 (1984).
32. Mata L. Cholera El Tor in Latin America, 1991-1993. In: Disease in Evolution: Global Changes and Emergence of Infectious Diseases (Wilson ME, Levins R, Spielman A, eds). Ann N Y Acad Sci 740:55-68 (1994).
33. Dobson A, Carper R. Global warming and potential changes in host-parasite and disease-vector relationships. In: Global Warming and Biological Diversity (Peters RL, Lovejoy TE, eds). New Haven, CT:Yale University Press, 1992;201-217.
34. Dobson A, Carper R. Biodiversity. Lancet 342:1096-1099 (1993).
35. Tong S, Bi P, Parton K, Hobbs J, McMichael AJ. Climate variability and transmission of epidemic polyarthritis [letter]. Lancet 351:1100 (1998).
36. Reeves WC, Hardy JL, Reisen WK, Milby MM. Potential effect of global warming on mosquito-borne arboviruses. J Med Entomol 31:323-332 (1994).
37. Rogers DJ, Randolph SE. Distribution of tsetse and ticks in Africa: past, present and future. Parasitol Today 9:266-271 (1993).
38. Rogers DJ, Packer MJ. Vector-borne diseases, models and global change. Lancet 342:1282-1284 (1993).
39. Sutherst RW. Arthropods as disease vectors in a changing environment. In: Environmental Change and Human Health. Ciba Foundation Symposium, Vol. 175. Chichester, UK:Wiley, 1993;124-141.
40. Trape JF, Godeluck B, Diatta G, Rogier C, Legros F, Albergel J, Pepin Y, Duplantier JM. The spread of tick-borne borreliosis in West Africa and its relationship to sub-Saharan drought. Am J Trop Med Hyg 54:289-293 (1996).
41. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Outbreak of acute febrile illness and pulmonary hemorrhage -Nicaragua 1995. Morb Mort Wkly Rep 44:841-843 (1995).
42. Nicholls N. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and vector-borne disease. Lancet 342:1284-1285 (1993).
43. Nicholls N. A method for predicting Murray Valley encephalitis epidemics in southeast Australia using the Southern Oscillation Index. Aust J Exp Biol Med Sci 64: 587-594 (1986).
44. Nicholls N. Teleconnections and health. In: Teleconnections Linking Worldwide Climate Anomalies (Glanz MH, Katz RW, Nicholls N, eds). Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press, 1991;493-510.
45. Schoental R. Climate change and human health [letter]. J R Soc Med 87:495 (1994).
46. Tester PA. Harmful marine phytoplankton and shellfish toxicity. In: Disease in Evolution: Global Changes and Emergence of Infectious Diseases (Wilson ME, Levins R, Spielmen A, eds). Ann N Y Acad Sci 740:69-76 (1994).
47. Wilson ML. Rift Valley fever virus ecology and epidemiology of disease emergence. In: Disease in Evolution: Global Changes and Emergence of Infectious Diseases (Wilson ME, Levins R, Spielman A, eds). Ann N Y Acad Sci 740:169-130 (1994).
48. Coluzzi M. Malaria and the Afrotropical ecosystems: impact of man-made environmental changes. Parassitologia 36:223-227 (1994).
49. Lainson R. Demographic changes and their influence on the epidemiology of the American leishmaniases. In: Demography and Vector-Borne Diseases (Service MW, ed). Boca Raton, FLCRC Press, 1989;85-106.
50. Spielman A. The emergence of Lyme disease and human babesiosis in a changing environment. In: Disease in Evolution: Global Changes and Emergence of Infectious Diseases (Wilson ME, Levins R, Spielman A, eds). Ann N Y Acad Sci 740:146-158 (1394).
51. Komar N, Spielman A. Emergence of eastern encephalitis in Massachusetts. In: Disease in Evolution: Global Changes and Emergence of Infectious Diseases (Wilson ME, Levins R, Spielman A, eds). Ann N Y Acad Sci 740:157-168 (1994).
52. Ault SK. Effect of malaria on demographic patterns, social structure and human behavior. In: Demography and Vector-Borne Diseases (Service MW, ed). Boca Raton, FL:CRC Press, 1989;271-282.
53. Brinkmann UK. Economic development and tropical disease. In: Disease in Evolution: Global Changes and Emergence of Infectious Diseases (Wilson ME, Levins R, Spielman A, eds). Ann N Y Acad Sci 740:303-311 (1994).
54. Roundy RW. Problems of resettlement and vector-borne diseases associated with dams and other development schemes. In: Demography and Vector-Borne Diseases (Service MW, ed). Boca Raton, FL:CRC Press, 1989;193-205.
55. Wilson ME. Travel and the emergence of infectious diseases. Emerg Infect Dis 1:39-46 (1995).
56. Abisudjak B, Kotanegara R. Transmigration and vector-borne diseases in Indonesia. In: Demography and Vector-Borne Diseases (Service MW, ed). Boca Raton, FL:CRC Press, 1989;207-223.
57. Kondrashin AV, Orlov VS. Migration and malaria. In: Demography and Vector-Borne Diseases (Service MW, ed). Boca Raton, FL:CRC Press, 1989;353-365.
58. Longini IM Jr, Fine PEM, Thacker SB. Predicting the global spread of new infectious agents. Am J Epidemiol 123:383-391 (1986).
59. Sattenspiel L, Dietz K. A structured epidemic model incorporating geographic mobility among regions. Math Biosci 128:71-91 (1995).
60. Meek SR. Vector-borne diseases among displaced Kampucheans. In: Demography and Vector-Borne Diseases (Service MW, ed). Boca Raton, FL:CRC Press, 1989;165-180.
61. Ault SK. Effect of demographic patterns, social structure and human behavior on malaria. In: Demography and Vector-Borne Diseases (Service MW, ed). Boca Raton, FL:CRC Press, 1989;283-301.
62. Gubler DJ, Clark GG. Dengue/dengue hemorrhagic fever: the emergence of a global health problem. Emerg Infect Dis 1:55-57 (1995).
63. Olson KE, Higgs S, Gaines PJ, Powers AM, Davis BS, Kamrud KI, Carlson JO, Blair CD, Beaty BJ. Genetically engineered resistance to dengue-2 virus transmission in mosquitoes. Science 272:884-886 (1996).
64. WRI. World Resources, 1993-1994. Washington, DC:World Resource Institute, 1994.
65. Epstein PR. Framework for an integrated assessment of health, climate change and ecosystem vulnerability. In: Disease in Evolution: Global Changes and Emergence of Infectious Diseases (Wilson ME, Levins R, Spielman A, eds). Ann N Y Acad Sci 740:423-435 (1994).
66. Martens WJM. Global atmospheric change and human health: an integrated modelling approach, Clim Res 6:107-112 (1998).
67. Patz JA, Balbus JM. Methods for assessing public health vulnerability to global climate change, Clim Res 6:113-125 (1998).
68. Anderson RM, ed. Population Dynamics of Infectious Diseases: Theory and Applications. London:Chapman and Hall, 1982.
69. Burgos JJ, Curto de Casas SI, Carcavallo RU, Galindez GI. Global climate change influence in the distribution of some pathogenic complexes (malaria and Chagas' disease) in Argentina. Entomol Vect 1:69 (1994). [Referenced in: Curto de Casas SI, Carcavallo RU. Climate change and vector-borne diseases distribution (letter). Social Sci Med 40:1437-1440 (1994).]
70. Burgos JJ, Curto de Casas SI, Carcavallo RU, Galindez GI. Global climate change influence in the distribution of some pathogenic complexes (malaria and Chagas' disease) in Argentina. Entomol Vect 1:69 (1994). [Referenced in: Curto de Casas SI, Carcavallo RU. Climate change and vector-borne diseases distribution (letter). Social Sci Med 40:1437-1440 (1994).]
71. Cheesbrough JS, Morse AP, Green SD. Meningococcal meningitis and carriage in western Zaïre: a hypoendemic zone related to climate? Epidemiol Infect 114:75-92 (1995).
72. Chen LC. New diseases: the human factor. In: Disease in Evolution: Global Changes and Emergence of Infectious Diseases (Wilson ME, Levins A, Spielman A, eds). Ann N Y Acad Sci 740:319-324 (1994).
73. Cook GC. Effect of global warming on the distribution of parasitic and other infectious diseases: a review. J R Soc Med 85:688-691 (1992).
74. Epstein PR, Ford TE, Colwell RH. Marine ecosystems. Lancet 342:1216-1219 (1993).
75. Epstein PR. Emerging diseases and ecosystem instability: new threats to public health. Am J Public Health 85:163-172 (1995).
76. Jackson EK. Climate change and global infectious disease threats. Med J Aust 163:570-574 (1995).
77. Johansen A. A simple model of recurrent epidemics. J Theo Biol 178:45-51 (1996).
78. Lovejoy TE. Global change and epidemiology: nasty synergies. In: Emerging Viruses (Morse SS, ed). Oxford:Oxford University Press, 1993;261-268.
79. Morse SS. Hantaviruses and the hantavirus outbreak in the United States. In: Disease in Evolution: Global Changes and Emergence of Infectious Diseases, (Wilson ME, Levins R, Spielman A, eds). Ann N Y Acad Sci 740:199-207 (1994).
80. Newton EAC, Reiter P. A model of the transmission of dengue fever with an evaluation of the impact of ultra-low volume (ULV) insecticide application on dengue epidemics. Am J Trop Med Hyg 47:709-720 (1993).
81. Patz JA, Epstein PR, Burke TA, Balbus JM. Global climate change and emerging infectious diseases. J Am Med Assoc 275:217-223 (1996).
82. Shope R. Global climate change and infectious diseases. Environ Health Perspect 96:171-174 (1991).
83. van Herwaarden OA, Grasman J. Stochastic epidemics: major outbreaks and the duration of the endemic period. J Math Biol 33:581-601 (1995).