Rethinking earthquake prediction

Pure and Applied Geophysics

Volumn 155, Issue 2-4, 1999, Pages 207-232

  Sykes, Lynn R ^a   Shaw, Bruce E ^a   Scholz, Christopher H ^a  

^a Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences   (United States)

Author keywords

Earthquake precursors; Earthquake prediction; Earthquakes; Physics of earthquakes

Indexed keywords

EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; SEISMIC HAZARD;

EID: 0032735954     PISSN: 00334553     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s000240050263     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. ABERCROMBIE, R. E., AGNEW, D. C., and WYATT. F. K. (1995), Testing a Model of Earthquake Nucleation, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 85, 1873-1878.
2. BAK, P., TANO, C., and WIESENFELD, K. (1988), Self-organized Criticality, Phys. Rev. A 38, 364-374.
3. BAKUN, W. H., and LINDH, A. G. (1985), The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment, Science 229, 619-624.
4. DENG, J., and SYKES, L. R. (1997), Stress Evolution in Southern California, and Triggering of Moderate, Small and Microearthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 102, 24,411-24,435.
5. DIETERICH, J. H., and KILGORE, B. (1996), Implications of Fault Constitutive Properties for Earthquake Prediction, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 93, 3787-3794.
6. DODGE, D. A., BEROZA, G. C., and ELLSWORTH, W. L. (1996), Detailed Observations of California Foreshock Sequences: Implications for the Earthquake Initiation Process, J. Geophys. Res. 101, 22,371-22,392.
7. ELLSWORTH, W. L., Characteristic earthquakes and long-term earthquake forecasts: implications of central California seismicity. In Urban Disaster Mitigation: The Role of Science and Technology (eds. Cheng, F. Y., and Sheu, M. S.) (Elsevier 1995) pp. 1-14.
8. EVANS, R. (1997), Assessment of Schemes for Earthquake Prediction, Geophys. J. Int. 131, 413-420.
9. GELLER, R. S. (1997a), Predicting Earthquakes is Impossible, Los Angeles Times, Feb. 2.
10. GELLER, R. S. (1997b), Earthquakes: Thinking about the Unpredictable, EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union 78, 63-66.
11. GELLER, R. S. (1997c), Predictable Publicity, Seismol. Res. Lett. 68, 477-480.
12. GELLER, R. S. (1997d), Earthquake Prediction: A Critical Review, Geophys. J. Int. 131, 425-450.
13. GELLER, R. S., JACKSON, D. D., KAGAN, Y. Y., and MULARGIA, F. (1997), Earthquakes Cannot be Predicted, Science 275, 1616-1617.
14. HARRIS, R. A. (1998a), The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Forcasts, U.S. Geol. Survey Prof. Paper 1550-B, 1-28.
15. HARRIS, R. A. (1998b), Forecasts of the Loma-Prieta. California, Earthquake, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 88, 898-916.
16. JAUMÉ, S. C., and SYKES, L. R. (1996), Evolution of Moderate Seismicity in the San Francisco Bay Region, 1850 to 1993: Seismicity Changes Related of the Occurrence oj Large and Great Earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res. 101, 765-789.
17. JAUMÉ, S. C., and SYKES, L. R. (1999), Evolving Toward a Critical Point: A Review of Accelerating Seismic Moment/Energy Release prior to Large and Great Earthquakes, Pure appl. geophys, this issue.
18. KAGAN, Y. Y., and JACKSON, D. D. (1991), Long-term Earthquake Clustering, Geophys. J, Int. 104, 117-133.
19. KANAMORI, H., HAUKSSON, E., and HEATON, T. (1997), Real-time Seismology and Earthquake Hazard Mitigation, Nature 390, 461-464.
20. LINDH, A. G. (1983), Preliminary Assessment of Long-term Probabilities for Large Earthquakes along Selected Fault Segments of the San Andreas Fault System in California, U.S. Geol. Survey Open-File Rep. 83-63, 1-5.
21. MAIN, I. (1996), Statistical Physics, Seismogenesis and Seismic Hazard, Rev. Geophys. 34, 433-462.
22. MAIN, I. (1997), Long Odds on Prediction, Nature 385, 19-20.
23. MAIN, I. G., and MEREDITH, P. G. (1991), Stress Corrosion Constitutive Laws as a Possible Mechanism of Intermediate-term and Short-term Seismic Quiescence, Geophys. J. Int. 107, 363-372.
24. NADEAU, R. M., and JOHNSON, L. R. (1998), Seismological Studies at Parkfield VI: Moment Release Rates and Estimates of Source Parameters for Small Repeating Earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 88, 790-814.
25. NADEAU, R. M., and McEVILLY, T. V. (1997), Seismological Studies at Parkfield V: Characteristic Microearthquake Sequences as Fault-zone Drilling Targets, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 87, 1463-1472.
26. PACHECO, J. F., SCHOLZ, C. H., and SYKES, L. R. (1992), Changes in Frequency-size Relationship from Small to Large Earthquakes, Nature 355, 71-73.
27. PEPKE, S. L., CARLSON, J. M., and SHAW, B. E. (1994), Prediction of Large Events on a Dynamical Model of a Fault, J. Geophys. Res. 99, 6769-6788.
28. REID, H. F. (1910), The Mechanics of the Earthquake. Vol. 2 of The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906. Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission (Carnegie Institution of Washington Publication 87).
29. ROELOFFS, E., and QUILTY, E. (1997), Water Level and Strain Changes Preceding and Following the August 4, 1985 Kettleman Hills, California, Earthquake, Pure appl. geophys. 149, 21-60.
30. ROSENDAHL, J. M., VEKIC, M., and RUTLEDGE, J.E. (1994), Predictability of Large Avalanches on a Sandpile, Phys. Rev. Lett. 73, 537-540.
31. SCHOLZ, C. H. (1985), The Black Mountain Asperity; Seismic Hazard of the Southern San Francisco Peninsula, California, Geophys. Res. Lett. 12, 717-719.
32. SCHOLZ, C.H. (1988), Mechanisms of Seismic Quiescences, Pure appl. geophys. 126, 701-718.
33. SHUKLA, J. (1998), Predictability in the Midst of Chaos: A Scientific Basis for Climate Forecasting, Science 282, 728-731.
34. SYKES, L. R. (1996), Intermediate- and Long-term Earthquake Prediction, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sei USA 93, 3732-3739.
35. SYKES, L. R., and JAUMÉ, S. C. (1990), Seismic Activity on Neighboring Faults as a Long-term Precursor to Large Earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area, Nature 348, 595-599.
36. SYKES, L. R., and NISHENKO, S. P. (1984), Probabilities of Occurrence of Large Plate Rupturing Earthquakes for the San Andreas, San Jacinto and Imperial Faults, California, J. Geophys. Res. 89, 5905-5927.
37. w 7.7): Rupture of a Different Asperity from a Previous Earthquake, Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 1465-1468.
38. TRIEP, E., and SYKES, L. R. (1997), Frequency of Occurrence of Moderate to Great Earthquakes in Intracontinental Regions, J. Geophys. Res. 102, 9923-9948.
39. TSUNOGAI, U., and WAKITA, H. (1995), Precursory Chemical Changes in Ground Water: Kobe Earthquake, Japan, Science 269, 61-63.
40. TUTTLE, M. P., and SYKES, L. R. (1992), Re-evaluation of Several Large Historic Earthquakes in the Vicinity of Loma Prieta and Peninsular Segments of the San Andreas Fault, California, Bull Seismol. Soc. Am. 82, 1802-1820.
41. WAKITA, H. (1996), Geochemical Challenge to Earthquake Prediction, Proc. Nat. Acad. SCi USA 93, 3781-3786.
42. WALLACE, R. E., DAVIS, J. E., and MCNALLY, K. C. (1984), Terms for Expressing Earthquake Potential, Prediction and Probability, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 74, 1819-1825.
43. WORKING GROUP ON CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITIES (1988), Probabilities of Large Earth-quakes Occurring in California on the San Andreas Fault, U.S. Geol. Survey Open-File Rep. 88-398, 1-62.
44. WYSS, M., SHIMAZAKI, K., and URABE, T. (1996), Quantitative Mapping of a Precursory Seismic Quiescence to the Izu-Oshima (M 6.5) Earthquake, Japan, Geophys. J. Int. 127, 735-743.