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238U dates, which is always the most precise. Some analyses are concordant but are distinctly older or younger than the cluster used to calculate the weighted means. Selection of the analyses to use in the weighted mean calculation is necessarily somewhat subjective.
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Several different numbering schemes have been applied to the beds in the Meishan section, reflecting progressive refinement of the stratigraphy; we follow that currently used by the Nanjing Institute. Beds 25 and 26 of this paper correspond to beds 22 and 23 of (24).
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Field evidence suggests a hiatus at the top of bed 25 that would shorten the duration of the isotopic shift. Accumulation rates between MZ96-(-4.3) and MD96-293w are much higher (1 cm per 2000 years), which would yield a duration of less than 10,000 years for the isotopic excursion. Alternatively, if a substantial amount of time is missing at the top of bed 25, only part of the spike may be preserved.
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With the assumption of a value of 40,000 Gt of dissolved inorganic carbon (the value for the present ocean), a whole-ocean shift from +3 to +1 per mil would require 13,000 Gt at -5 per mil, 3700 to 3000 Gt of marine organic carbon at -20 to -25 per mil, and 1100 Gt of methane gas hydrates at -65 per mil. The corresponding values for a shift from +3 to 0 per mil are 24,000 Gt, 5800 to 4700 Gt, and 1700 Gt. However, isotopic evidence suggests that Late Permian oceans contained a much larger volume of dissolved inorganic carbon, which would increase the above estimates. If Permian oceans contained 60,000 Gt of dissolved inorganic carbon, for example, all of the above estimates would be increased by one-third.
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Recent estimates of the carbon isotopic composition of Comet C/1995 01 (Hale-Bopp) indicate carbon much lighter than the solar system average or even methane (47). Thus, it is possible that a carbon-rich bolide could cause a negative isotopic shift.
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We thank NASA, the Smithsonian Institution, the Academia Sinica, and National Natural Science Foundation, China for support. Access to Guadalupe Mountains National Park was provided by L. Henderson and F. A. Armstrong. D. Coleman took part in the sampling of ash beds in China in 1996 and is thanked for his enthusiastic participation. Reviews by two anonymous referees and P. Enos improved the manuscript, as did discussions with P. Renne, S. D'Hondt, J. Grotzinger, and B. Wardlaw.
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