Which way for Sino-Russian relations?

Orbis

Volumn 42, Issue 3, 1998, Pages 345-360

  Blank, Stephen ^a  

^a U S ARMY WAR COLLEGE   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0000395189     PISSN: 00304387     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/s0030-4387(98)90025-4     Document Type: Article

References (143)

1. Stephen Blank, The Dynamics of Russian Arms Sales to China (Carlisle Barracks, Pa : Strategic Studies Institute, U S Army War College, 1997) , Pavel Felgengauer, "An Uneasy Partnership: Sino-Russian Defense Cooperation and Arms Sales," in Russia in the World Arms Trade, ed. Andrew J Pierre and Dmitri V. Trenin (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1997), pp. 87-105.
2. Stephen Blank, The Dynamics of Russian Arms Sales to China (Carlisle Barracks, Pa : Strategic Studies Institute, U S Army War College, 1997) , Pavel Felgengauer, "An Uneasy Partnership: Sino-Russian Defense Cooperation and Arms Sales," in Russia in the World Arms Trade, ed. Andrew J Pierre and Dmitri V. Trenin (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1997), pp. 87-105.
3. Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report Central Eurasia (hereafter FBIS, CEura), Aug. 18, 1997, from Problemy Dalnego Vostoka (Moscow), Mar/Apr 1997;
4. Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report Central Eurasia (hereafter FBIS, CEura), Aug. 18, 1997, from Problemy Dalnego Vostoka (Moscow), Mar/Apr 1997;
5. and Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report China (hereafter FBIS, China), Aug 1, 1996
6. , from Guoju Wenti Yanjiuu (International Studies, Beijing), no. 2, 1996.
7. FBIS, CEura, Dec 9, 1997, from Krasnaya zvezda (Moscow), Dec. 9, 1997.
8. FBIS, CEura, Dec 9, 1997, from Krasnaya zvezda (Moscow), Dec. 9, 1997.
9. FBIS, CEura, Oct 27, 1997, from Interfax (Moscow), Oct 27, 1997; FBIS, CEura, Sept. 3, 1997, from Trud (Moscow), Sept 3, 1997.
10. FBIS, CEura, Oct 27, 1997, from Interfax (Moscow), Oct 27, 1997; FBIS, CEura, Sept. 3, 1997, from Trud (Moscow), Sept 3, 1997.
11. FBIS, CEura, Oct 27, 1997, from Interfax (Moscow), Oct 27, 1997; FBIS, CEura, Sept. 3, 1997, from Trud (Moscow), Sept 3, 1997.
12. FBIS, CEura, Oct 27, 1997, from Interfax (Moscow), Oct 27, 1997; FBIS, CEura, Sept. 3, 1997, from Trud (Moscow), Sept 3, 1997.
13. Stephen Blank, Why Russian Policy is Failing in Asta (Carlisle Barracks, Pa: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1997).
14. Ibid.
15. Viktor Israelyan, "Russia at the Crossroads: Don't Tease a Wounded Bear," Washington Quarterly, Winter 1998, p. 57, writes specifically that China's rise is one of the pressures that "could exacerbate the trend towards fragmentation that has already been evident in the Russian Federation." For a depiction of the broader debate see Andrei Voskresensky, "The Perception of China by Russia's Foreign Policy Elite," Issues & Studies, Mar. 1997, pp. 1-20.
16. Viktor Israelyan, "Russia at the Crossroads: Don't Tease a Wounded Bear," Washington Quarterly, Winter 1998, p. 57, writes specifically that China's rise is one of the pressures that "could exacerbate the trend towards fragmentation that has already been evident in the Russian Federation." For a depiction of the broader debate see Andrei Voskresensky, "The Perception of China by Russia's Foreign Policy Elite," Issues & Studies, Mar. 1997, pp. 1-20.
17. James Clay Moltz, "Russo-Chinese Normalization from an International Perspective: Coping With the Pressures of Change," in Politics and Economics in the Russian Far East, ed. Tsuneo Akaha (New York: Routledge, 1997), pp. 188-94.
18. Blank, Why Russian Policy is Failing; Peter Stavrakis, Shadow Politics The Russian State in the 21st Century (Carlisle Barracks, Pa.: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1997).
19. Blank, Why Russian Policy is Failing; Peter Stavrakis, Shadow Politics The Russian State in the 21st Century (Carlisle Barracks, Pa.: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1997).
20. Blank, Why Russian Policy is Failing. Superficially, this resembles California governor Pete Wilson's campaigns against Mexican immigration, but the difference here is that Wilson's tenure is not under threat from Washington. On the other hand, as in the Mexican case, the United States cannot have free trade with Mexico under NAFTA and closed borders, and the same logic applies to Sino-Russian relations. Therefore, if Russia cannot put its federal house in order and establish a rational immigration policy, prospects for economic collaboration with China will remain limited due to such failures.
21. Yevgeny M. Kozhokin, "Arms Export Controls: What Role for Parliament?" in Russia in the World Arms Trade, ed. Andrew J. Pierre and Dmitri V. Trenin (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1997), p. 45.
22. Takashi Murakami, "The Present Situation and Future Problems of Energy," in Politics and Economics in the Russian Far East, ed. Tsuneo Akaha (New York. Routledge, 1997), pp. 110-19, and FBIS, CEura, Dec. 2, 1997, from ITAR-TASS (Moscow), Dec. 2, 1997.
23. Takashi Murakami, "The Present Situation and Future Problems of Energy," in Politics and Economics in the Russian Far East, ed. Tsuneo Akaha (New York. Routledge, 1997), pp. 110-19, and FBIS, CEura, Dec. 2, 1997, from ITAR-TASS (Moscow), Dec. 2, 1997.
24. Takashi Murakami, "The Present Situation and Future Problems of Energy," in Politics and Economics in the Russian Far East, ed. Tsuneo Akaha (New York. Routledge, 1997), pp. 110-19, and FBIS, CEura, Dec. 2, 1997, from ITAR-TASS (Moscow), Dec. 2, 1997.
25. David B. Ottaway and Dan Morgan, "China Pursues Ambitious Role in Oil Market," Washington Post, Dec. 26, 1997, sec. A. p. 35.
26. The Economist, Jan. 3, 1998, p 19; Stephen Blank, Energy, Economics and Security in Central Asia (Carlisle Barracks, Pa Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1995), pp 26-30.
27. The Economist, Jan. 3, 1998, p 19; Stephen Blank, Energy, Economics and Security in Central Asia (Carlisle Barracks, Pa Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1995), pp 26-30.
28. FBIS, CEura, Apr 26, 1996, p. 17, from Interfax (Moscow), Apr. 25, 1996, Vladimir Kuznechevskii, "CIS Countries and China in Shanghai Made a Step to a Non-Military Alliance," Northeast Asian Peace and Security Netuwk, July 2, 1996. First published in Rossiyskaya gazeta (Moscow), June 22, 1996.
29. FBIS, CEura, Apr 26, 1996, p. 17, from Interfax (Moscow), Apr. 25, 1996, Vladimir Kuznechevskii, "CIS Countries and China in Shanghai Made a Step to a Non-Military Alliance," Northeast Asian Peace and Security Netuwk, July 2, 1996. First published in Rossiyskaya gazeta (Moscow), June 22, 1996.
30. FBIS, CEura, Apr 26, 1996, p. 17, from Interfax (Moscow), Apr. 25, 1996, Vladimir Kuznechevskii, "CIS Countries and China in Shanghai Made a Step to a Non-Military Alliance," Northeast Asian Peace and Security Netuwk, July 2, 1996. First published in Rossiyskaya gazeta (Moscow), June 22, 1996.
31. FBIS, CEura, Apr 26, 1996, p. 17, from Interfax (Moscow), Apr. 25, 1996, Vladimir Kuznechevskii, "CIS Countries and China in Shanghai Made a Step to a Non-Military Alliance," Northeast Asian Peace and Security Netuwk, July 2, 1996. First published in Rossiyskaya gazeta (Moscow), June 22, 1996.
32. Indonesia suspended its purchase of Russian weapons in Jan. 1998 and other states can be expected to curtail spending accordingly.
33. Li Jingjie, "The Progress of Chinese-Russian Relations From Friendship to Strategic Partnership," Far Eastern Affairs, May/June 1997, pp 40-41.
34. Felgengauer, "An Uneasy Partnership," p. 103; Sergei Kortunov, "Russia in Search of Allies," International Affairs 43, 3 (1996), pp. 148-63 (161).
35. Felgengauer, "An Uneasy Partnership," p. 103; Sergei Kortunov, "Russia in Search of Allies," International Affairs 43, 3 (1996), pp. 148-63 (161).
36. John Anderson, The International Politics of Central Asia (Manchester, England: Manchester University Press, 1997), p 197.
37. Presidential advisor Andranik Migranyan made these remarks at the Cato Institute and Russian University of America's joint conference on the Russo-Amencan partnership (Washington, D C., Sept. 19, 1996). For the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs's statements see FBIS, CEura, June 26, 1996, p. 23 , fro m ITAR-TASS, June 25, 1996.
38. Presidential advisor Andranik Migranyan made these remarks at the Cato Institute and Russian University of America's joint conference on the Russo-Amencan partnership (Washington, D C., Sept. 19, 1996). For the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs's statements see FBIS, CEura, June 26, 1996, p. 23 , fro m ITAR-TASS, June 25, 1996.
39. See the Sino-Ukrainian communique of June 1995 where both sides recognized and supported the integrity of the other and condemned separatism. FBIS, China, June 26, 1995, pp. 23-24, from Xinhua (Beijing), June 24, 1995.
40. See the Sino-Ukrainian communique of June 1995 where both sides recognized and supported the integrity of the other and condemned separatism. FBIS, China, June 26, 1995, pp. 23-24, from Xinhua (Beijing), June 24, 1995.
41. For one example see FBIS, China, July 3, 1996, pp. 9-11, from Hsin Pao (Hong Kong economic journal, Hong Kong), June 28, 1996
42. For one example see FBIS, China, July 3, 1996, pp. 9-11, from Hsin Pao (Hong Kong economic journal, Hong Kong), June 28, 1996
43. Ibid.
44. Chin Chu-Kwang, "The U.S.-Japan Joint Declaration: Strategic Implications for Taiwan's Security," World Affairs, Winter 1998, pp 152-62
45. FBIS, China, July 3, 1996, from Hsin Pao (Hong Kong economic journal, Hong Kong), June 28, 1996.
46. FBIS, China, July 3, 1996, from Hsin Pao (Hong Kong economic journal, Hong Kong), June 28, 1996.
47. Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Military Affairs (hereafter FBIS, MA), Jan. 27, 1998, from Segodnya (Moscow), Jan. 26, 1998.
48. Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Military Affairs (hereafter FBIS, MA), Jan. 27, 1998, from Segodnya (Moscow), Jan. 26, 1998.
49. Robert Scalapino, "The China Policy of Russia and Asian Security in the 1990s," in East Asian Security in the Post-Cold War Era, ed Sheldon Simon (Armonk, N.Y.: M E. Sharpe, 1993), pp. 148-57 . Primakov reiterated the identity of Sino-Russian views on the building of the new international order in Beijing in Nov. 1996. ITAR-TASS, Nov. 19, 1996. Also, "Yeltsin, China's Jiang Call for 'Multipolar' World," Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press (hereafter CDPP), May 28, 1997, pp. 2-4; and FBIS, China, Apr. 23, 1997,
50. Robert Scalapino, "The China Policy of Russia and Asian Security in the 1990s," in East Asian Security in the Post-Cold War Era, ed Sheldon Simon (Armonk, N.Y.: M E. Sharpe, 1993), pp. 148-57 . Primakov reiterated the identity of Sino-Russian views on the building of the new international order in Beijing in Nov. 1996. ITAR-TASS, Nov. 19, 1996. Also, "Yeltsin, China's Jiang Call for 'Multipolar' World," Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press (hereafter CDPP), May 28, 1997, pp. 2-4; and FBIS, China, Apr. 23, 1997,
51. Robert Scalapino, "The China Policy of Russia and Asian Security in the 1990s," in East Asian Security in the Post-Cold War Era, ed Sheldon Simon (Armonk, N.Y.: M E. Sharpe, 1993), pp. 148-57 . Primakov reiterated the identity of Sino-Russian views on the building of the new international order in Beijing in Nov. 1996. ITAR-TASS, Nov. 19, 1996. Also, "Yeltsin, China's Jiang Call for 'Multipolar' World," Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press (hereafter CDPP), May 28, 1997, pp. 2-4; and FBIS, China, Apr. 23, 1997,
52. Robert Scalapino, "The China Policy of Russia and Asian Security in the 1990s," in East Asian Security in the Post-Cold War Era, ed Sheldon Simon (Armonk, N.Y.: M E. Sharpe, 1993), pp. 148-57 . Primakov reiterated the identity of Sino-Russian views on the building of the new international order in Beijing in Nov. 1996. ITAR-TASS, Nov. 19, 1996. Also, "Yeltsin, China's Jiang Call for 'Multipolar' World," Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press (hereafter CDPP), May 28, 1997, pp. 2-4; and FBIS, China, Apr. 23, 1997,
53. from Xinhua Domestic Service (Beijing), Apr. 23, 1997.
54. Stephen Sestanovich, "Why the United States Has No Russia Policy," in Eagle Adrift American Foreign Policy at the End of the Century, ed. Robert J. Lieber (New York: Longman, 1997), p. 166.
55. Richard Bernstein and Ross H. Munro, The Coming Conflict With China (New York: Alfred A Knopf, 1997), pp 105-29 See Northeast Asian Peace and Security Network, July 18, 1996, for the remarks of Franklin Kramer, assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, on his recent trip to China Also, Robert J. Lieber, "U.S., China Optimistic After Talks in Beijing," Washington Post, July 11, 1996, p. 21.
56. Richard Bernstein and Ross H. Munro, The Coming Conflict With China (New York: Alfred A Knopf, 1997), pp 105-29 See Northeast Asian Peace and Security Network, July 18, 1996, for the remarks of Franklin Kramer, assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, on his recent trip to China Also, Robert J. Lieber, "U.S., China Optimistic After Talks in Beijing," Washington Post, July 11, 1996, p. 21.
57. Richard Bernstein and Ross H. Munro, The Coming Conflict With China (New York: Alfred A Knopf, 1997), pp 105-29 See Northeast Asian Peace and Security Network, July 18, 1996, for the remarks of Franklin Kramer, assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, on his recent trip to China Also, Robert J. Lieber, "U.S., China Optimistic After Talks in Beijing," Washington Post, July 11, 1996, p. 21.
58. Stephen Sestanovich, "Giving Russia Its Due," The National Interest, Summer 1994, pp 3-13.
59. This emerged in meetings with Chinese officials in Washington in Dec. 1997
60. Northeast Asian Peace and Security Network," Los Angeles Times, Oct. 24, 1907; FBIS, China, Oct. 1, 1997, from South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)
61. Northeast Asian Peace and Security Network," Los Angeles Times, Oct. 24, 1907; FBIS, China, Oct. 1, 1997, from South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)
62. Northeast Asian Peace and Security Network," Los Angeles Times, Oct. 24, 1907; FBIS, China, Oct. 1, 1997, from South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)
63. Sergey M Rogov, "Russia and NATO's Enlargement The Search for a Compromise at the Helsinki Summit," CIM 513 (Alexandria, Va. Center for Naval Analysis, May 1997), p 10 See also the e-mail letter from Darrell Hammer on Johnson's Russia List, d.johnson@erols com, Feb. 5, 1997 , Dmitry Trenin, "Transformation of Russian Foreign Policy: NATO Expansion Can Have Negative Consequences for the West," Nezavisimaya gazeta, Feb 5, 1997; J. Michael Waller, "Primakov's Imperial Line," Perspective, Jan /Feb. 1997, pp. 2-6; and "Primakov, Setting a New, Tougher Foreign Policy," CDPP, Feb. 12, 1997, pp. 4-7.
64. Sergey M Rogov, "Russia and NATO's Enlargement The Search for a Compromise at the Helsinki Summit," CIM 513 (Alexandria, Va. Center for Naval Analysis, May 1997), p 10 See also the e-mail letter from Darrell Hammer on Johnson's Russia List, d.johnson@erols com, Feb. 5, 1997 , Dmitry Trenin, "Transformation of Russian Foreign Policy: NATO Expansion Can Have Negative Consequences for the West," Nezavisimaya gazeta, Feb 5, 1997; J. Michael Waller, "Primakov's Imperial Line," Perspective, Jan /Feb. 1997, pp. 2-6; and "Primakov, Setting a New, Tougher Foreign Policy," CDPP, Feb. 12, 1997, pp. 4-7.
65. Sergey M Rogov, "Russia and NATO's Enlargement The Search for a Compromise at the Helsinki Summit," CIM 513 (Alexandria, Va. Center for Naval Analysis, May 1997), p 10 See also the e-mail letter from Darrell Hammer on Johnson's Russia List, d.johnson@erols com, Feb. 5, 1997 , Dmitry Trenin, "Transformation of Russian Foreign Policy: NATO Expansion Can Have Negative Consequences for the West," Nezavisimaya gazeta, Feb 5, 1997; J. Michael Waller, "Primakov's Imperial Line," Perspective, Jan /Feb. 1997, pp. 2-6; and "Primakov, Setting a New, Tougher Foreign Policy," CDPP, Feb. 12, 1997, pp. 4-7.
66. Sergey M Rogov, "Russia and NATO's Enlargement The Search for a Compromise at the Helsinki Summit," CIM 513 (Alexandria, Va. Center for Naval Analysis, May 1997), p 10 See also the e-mail letter from Darrell Hammer on Johnson's Russia List, d.johnson@erols com, Feb. 5, 1997 , Dmitry Trenin, "Transformation of Russian Foreign Policy: NATO Expansion Can Have Negative Consequences for the West," Nezavisimaya gazeta, Feb 5, 1997; J. Michael Waller, "Primakov's Imperial Line," Perspective, Jan /Feb. 1997, pp. 2-6; and "Primakov, Setting a New, Tougher Foreign Policy," CDPP, Feb. 12, 1997, pp. 4-7.
67. Sergey M Rogov, "Russia and NATO's Enlargement The Search for a Compromise at the Helsinki Summit," CIM 513 (Alexandria, Va. Center for Naval Analysis, May 1997), p 10 See also the e-mail letter from Darrell Hammer on Johnson's Russia List, d.johnson@erols com, Feb. 5, 1997 , Dmitry Trenin, "Transformation of Russian Foreign Policy: NATO Expansion Can Have Negative Consequences for the West," Nezavisimaya gazeta, Feb 5, 1997; J. Michael Waller, "Primakov's Imperial Line," Perspective, Jan /Feb. 1997, pp. 2-6; and "Primakov, Setting a New, Tougher Foreign Policy," CDPP, Feb. 12, 1997, pp. 4-7.
68. Sestanovich, "Giving Russia its Due," pp. 3-13.
69. FBIS, CEura, Aug. 18, 1997, from Problemy Dalnego Vostoka (Moscow), Mar/Apr. 1997; FBIS, China, Nov 11, 1997, from Xinhua (Beijing), Nov. 11, 1997; FBIS, CEura, Aug. 5, 1997, from Problemy Dalnego Vostoka (Moscow), May/June 1997; and Zhang Deguang, "A Strategic Partnership Into the 21st Century," Far Eastern Affairs, July/Aug. 1997, pp 164-68.
70. FBIS, CEura, Aug. 18, 1997, from Problemy Dalnego Vostoka (Moscow), Mar/Apr. 1997; FBIS, China, Nov 11, 1997, from Xinhua (Beijing), Nov. 11, 1997; FBIS, CEura, Aug. 5, 1997, from Problemy Dalnego Vostoka (Moscow), May/June 1997; and Zhang Deguang, "A Strategic Partnership Into the 21st Century," Far Eastern Affairs, July/Aug. 1997, pp 164-68.
71. FBIS, CEura, Aug. 18, 1997, from Problemy Dalnego Vostoka (Moscow), Mar/Apr. 1997; FBIS, China, Nov 11, 1997, from Xinhua (Beijing), Nov. 11, 1997; FBIS, CEura, Aug. 5, 1997, from Problemy Dalnego Vostoka (Moscow), May/June 1997; and Zhang Deguang, "A Strategic Partnership Into the 21st Century," Far Eastern Affairs, July/Aug. 1997, pp 164-68.
72. FBIS, CEura, Aug. 18, 1997, from Problemy Dalnego Vostoka (Moscow), Mar/Apr. 1997; FBIS, China, Nov 11, 1997, from Xinhua (Beijing), Nov. 11, 1997; FBIS, CEura, Aug. 5, 1997, from Problemy Dalnego Vostoka (Moscow), May/June 1997; and Zhang Deguang, "A Strategic Partnership Into the 21st Century," Far Eastern Affairs, July/Aug. 1997, pp 164-68.
73. FBIS, CEura, Aug. 18, 1997, from Problemy Dalnego Vostoka (Moscow), Mar/Apr. 1997; FBIS, China, Nov 11, 1997, from Xinhua (Beijing), Nov. 11, 1997; FBIS, CEura, Aug. 5, 1997, from Problemy Dalnego Vostoka (Moscow), May/June 1997; and Zhang Deguang, "A Strategic Partnership Into the 21st Century," Far Eastern Affairs, July/Aug. 1997, pp 164-68.
74. FBIS, CEura, Aug. 18, 1997, from Problemy Dalnego Vostoka (Moscow), Mar/Apr. 1997; FBIS, China, Nov 11, 1997, from Xinhua (Beijing), Nov. 11, 1997; FBIS, CEura, Aug. 5, 1997, from Problemy Dalnego Vostoka (Moscow), May/June 1997; and Zhang Deguang, "A Strategic Partnership Into the 21st Century," Far Eastern Affairs, July/Aug. 1997, pp 164-68.
75. FBIS, CEura, Aug. 18, 1997, from Problemy Dalnego Vostoka (Moscow), Mar/Apr. 1997; FBIS, China, Nov 11, 1997, from Xinhua (Beijing), Nov. 11, 1997; FBIS, CEura, Aug. 5, 1997, from Problemy Dalnego Vostoka (Moscow), May/June 1997; and Zhang Deguang, "A Strategic Partnership Into the 21st Century," Far Eastern Affairs, July/Aug. 1997, pp 164-68.
76. FBIS, China, Apr 25, 1996, pp. 14-16, from Xinhua Domestic Service (Beijing), Apr 25, 1996; FBIS, CEura, June 14, 1996, pp. 23-25, from Nezavisimaya gazeta (Moscow), June 14, 1996; and FBIS, MA, Jan 27, 1998, from Segodnya (Moscow), Jan. 26, 1998.
77. FBIS, China, Apr 25, 1996, pp. 14-16, from Xinhua Domestic Service (Beijing), Apr 25, 1996; FBIS, CEura, June 14, 1996, pp. 23-25, from Nezavisimaya gazeta (Moscow), June 14, 1996; and FBIS, MA, Jan 27, 1998, from Segodnya (Moscow), Jan. 26, 1998.
78. FBIS, China, Apr 25, 1996, pp. 14-16, from Xinhua Domestic Service (Beijing), Apr 25, 1996; FBIS, CEura, June 14, 1996, pp. 23-25, from Nezavisimaya gazeta (Moscow), June 14, 1996; and FBIS, MA, Jan 27, 1998, from Segodnya (Moscow), Jan. 26, 1998.
79. FBIS, China, Apr 25, 1996, pp. 14-16, from Xinhua Domestic Service (Beijing), Apr 25, 1996; FBIS, CEura, June 14, 1996, pp. 23-25, from Nezavisimaya gazeta (Moscow), June 14, 1996; and FBIS, MA, Jan 27, 1998, from Segodnya (Moscow), Jan. 26, 1998.
80. FBIS, China, Apr 25, 1996, pp. 14-16, from Xinhua Domestic Service (Beijing), Apr 25, 1996; FBIS, CEura, June 14, 1996, pp. 23-25, from Nezavisimaya gazeta (Moscow), June 14, 1996; and FBIS, MA, Jan 27, 1998, from Segodnya (Moscow), Jan. 26, 1998.
81. FBIS, China, Apr 25, 1996, pp. 14-16, from Xinhua Domestic Service (Beijing), Apr 25, 1996; FBIS, CEura, June 14, 1996, pp. 23-25, from Nezavisimaya gazeta (Moscow), June 14, 1996; and FBIS, MA, Jan 27, 1998, from Segodnya (Moscow), Jan. 26, 1998.
82. FBIS, MA, Jan. 27, 1998.
83. Ibid.
84. For example, FBIS, China, Nov. 7, 1997 , from Ta Kung Pao (Hong Kong), Nov 2, 1997.
85. For example, FBIS, China, Nov. 7, 1997 , from Ta Kung Pao (Hong Kong), Nov 2, 1997.
86. Scalapino, "The China Policy," pp. 158-63.
87. For instance, "Far East: China," CDPP, Aug. 21, 1996, pp. 20-22. It should be noted that among the articles in this, section are some alleging that Chinese military men still view Russia as the enemy, a view which hardly jibes with official proclamations or with the logic behind Russian arms sales.
88. Boris Rumer, "Disintegration and Reintegration in Central Asia: Dynamics and Prospects," in Central Asia in Transition Dilemmas of Political and Economic Development, ed. Boris Rumer (Armonk, N.Y. M.E. Sharpe, 1996), pp. 14-15, Oksana Reznikova, "Transnational Corporations in Central Asia," in Central Asia in Transition, pp. 82-83.
89. Boris Rumer, "Disintegration and Reintegration in Central Asia: Dynamics and Prospects," in Central Asia in Transition Dilemmas of Political and Economic Development, ed. Boris Rumer (Armonk, N.Y. M.E. Sharpe, 1996), pp. 14-15, Oksana Reznikova, "Transnational Corporations in Central Asia," in Central Asia in Transition, pp. 82-83.
90. Reznikova, "Transnational Corporations"
91. Ibid. Also, "The Geopolitical Sleuth," The Economist, Jan. 3, 1998, p. 19
92. Ibid. Also, "The Geopolitical Sleuth," The Economist, Jan. 3, 1998, p. 19
93. Vladimir Miasnikov, "Russia and China," in Damage Limitation or Crisis? Russia and the Outside World, ed. Robert D. Blackwill and Sergei A. Karaganov, CSIA Studies in International Security, no. 5 (Washington, D C. Brassey's, 1994), pp 232-33.
94. Li Jingjie, "The Progress of Chinese-Russian Relations: From Friendship to Strategic Partnership," Far Eastern Affairs, May/June 1997, p. 40.
95. Ibid
96. Ibid , p 41
97. Li Jingie, "China and Russia," in Damage Limitation or Crisis? Russia and the Outside World, ed Robert D Blackwill and Sergei A. Karaganov, CSIA Studies in International Security, no. 5 (Washington, D.C Brassey's, 1994), pp 248-50; FBIS, China, Aug. 1, 1996, from Guoju Wenti Yanjiuu (International Studies, Beijing), no. 2, 1996
98. Li Jingie, "China and Russia," in Damage Limitation or Crisis? Russia and the Outside World, ed Robert D Blackwill and Sergei A. Karaganov, CSIA Studies in International Security, no. 5 (Washington, D.C Brassey's, 1994), pp 248-50; FBIS, China, Aug. 1, 1996, from Guoju Wenti Yanjiuu (International Studies, Beijing), no. 2, 1996
99. Stephen J Blank, "Russia Looks at China," in Imperial Decline Russia's Changing Role in Asia, ed Stephen J Blank and Alvin Z. Rubinstein (Durham, N.C Duke University Press, 1997), p. 82.
100. Fei-Ling Wang, "Chinese Perceptions of the U.S.-ROK Alliance," in The US -ROK Alliance in Transition, ed. Tae-Hwan Kwak and Thomas L. Wilborn (Seoul. Institute for Far Eastern Studies, Kyungnam University, 1996), pp 73-91, virtually ignores Russia and cites "the absence of Russian power."
101. FBIS, China, Apr 25, 1996, pp. 14-16 , from Xinbua Domestic Service (Beijing), Apr 25, 1996; FBIS, CEura, June 14, 1996, pp 23-25, from Nezavisimaya gazeta (Moscow), June 14, 1996. Primakov reiterated the identity of Sino-Russian views on the new international order in Beijing in Nov 1996 ITAR-TASS, Nov 19, 1996.
102. FBIS, China, Apr 25, 1996, pp. 14-16 , from Xinbua Domestic Service (Beijing), Apr 25, 1996; FBIS, CEura, June 14, 1996, pp 23-25, from Nezavisimaya gazeta (Moscow), June 14, 1996. Primakov reiterated the identity of Sino-Russian views on the new international order in Beijing in Nov 1996 ITAR-TASS, Nov 19, 1996.
103. FBIS, China, Apr 25, 1996, pp. 14-16 , from Xinbua Domestic Service (Beijing), Apr 25, 1996; FBIS, CEura, June 14, 1996, pp 23-25, from Nezavisimaya gazeta (Moscow), June 14, 1996. Primakov reiterated the identity of Sino-Russian views on the new international order in Beijing in Nov 1996 ITAR-TASS, Nov 19, 1996.
104. FBIS, China, Apr 25, 1996, pp. 14-16 , from Xinbua Domestic Service (Beijing), Apr 25, 1996; FBIS, CEura, June 14, 1996, pp 23-25, from Nezavisimaya gazeta (Moscow), June 14, 1996. Primakov reiterated the identity of Sino-Russian views on the new international order in Beijing in Nov 1996 ITAR-TASS, Nov 19, 1996.
105. FBIS, China, Apr 25, 1996, pp. 14-16 , from Xinbua Domestic Service (Beijing), Apr 25, 1996; FBIS, CEura, June 14, 1996, pp 23-25, from Nezavisimaya gazeta (Moscow), June 14, 1996. Primakov reiterated the identity of Sino-Russian views on the new international order in Beijing in Nov 1996 ITAR-TASS, Nov 19, 1996.
106. FBIS, CEura, Apr 26, 1996, p 17 , from Interfax (Moscow), Apr 25, 1996; Kuznechevskii, "CIS Countries and China"
107. FBIS, CEura, Apr 26, 1996, p 17 , from Interfax (Moscow), Apr 25, 1996; Kuznechevskii, "CIS Countries and China"
108. FBIS, CEura, Apr 26, 1996, p 17 , from Interfax (Moscow), Apr 25, 1996; Kuznechevskii, "CIS Countries and China"
109. Miasnikov, "Russia and China," pp. 232-33; FBIS, MA, Jan. 27, 1998, from Segodnya (Moscow), Jan. 26, 1998.
110. Miasnikov, "Russia and China," pp. 232-33; FBIS, MA, Jan. 27, 1998, from Segodnya (Moscow), Jan. 26, 1998.
111. Miasnikov, "Russia and China," pp. 232-33; FBIS, MA, Jan. 27, 1998, from Segodnya (Moscow), Jan. 26, 1998.
112. Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report East Asia, Feb. 3, 1998, from Chuo Koron (Tokyo), Feb. 1998
113. Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report East Asia, Feb. 3, 1998, from Chuo Koron (Tokyo), Feb. 1998
114. Ibid.; "Russo-Japanese Relations: 'Breakthrough' Claimed," CDPP, Dec. 3, 1997, pp. 1-3, 12
115. Ibid.; "Russo-Japanese Relations: 'Breakthrough' Claimed," CDPP, Dec. 3, 1997, pp. 1-3, 12
116. Admiral Eric McVadon (U.S. Navy, Ret.) former defense attache China made this point at the CAPS-RAND Conference on Foreign Arms Transfers to China (Oxford, England, June 26-29, 1997).
117. The argument about China as a threat is explicitly made in Bernstein and Munro. The Coming Conflict. Other scholars have shown concern about the rise of the military as a pressure group there. See also John Garver, "The PLA as an Interest Group in Chinese Foreign Policy," in Chinese Military Modernization, ed C. Dennison Lane, Mark Weisenbloom, and Dimon Liu, with a foreword by Ambassador James R Lilley (Washington, DC American Enterprise Institute Press, 1996), pp 246-81
118. For a general theoretical analysis of how this internal coalition base functions see Jack Snyder, Myths of Empire Domestic Politics and International Ambitions (Ithaca, N.Y. Cornell University Press, 1991), pp 1-66
119. Paul Cavey, "Building a Power Base. Jiang Zemin and the Post-Deng Succession," Issues & Studies, Nov. 1997, pp. 1-34.
120. Snyder, Myths of Empire, pp. 1-66.
121. FBIS, CEura, Jan. 17, 1998, from Kommersant-Daily (Moscow), Jan. 15, 1998.
122. FBIS, CEura, Jan. 17, 1998, from Kommersant-Daily (Moscow), Jan. 15, 1998.
123. The Monitor, Feb. 3, 1998; FBIS, CEura, Jan. 27, 1998, from RIA (Moscow), Jan. 23, 1998; Felgengauer, "An Uneasy Partnership"; and Blank, The Dynamics of Russian Arms Sales Felgengauer, "An Uneasy Partnership," p. 93.
124. The Monitor, Feb. 3, 1998; FBIS, CEura, Jan. 27, 1998, from RIA (Moscow), Jan. 23, 1998; Felgengauer, "An Uneasy Partnership"; and Blank, The Dynamics of Russian Arms Sales Felgengauer, "An Uneasy Partnership," p. 93.
125. The Monitor, Feb. 3, 1998; FBIS, CEura, Jan. 27, 1998, from RIA (Moscow), Jan. 23, 1998; Felgengauer, "An Uneasy Partnership"; and Blank, The Dynamics of Russian Arms Sales Felgengauer, "An Uneasy Partnership," p. 93.
126. The Monitor, Feb. 3, 1998; FBIS, CEura, Jan. 27, 1998, from RIA (Moscow), Jan. 23, 1998; Felgengauer, "An Uneasy Partnership"; and Blank, The Dynamics of Russian Arms Sales Felgengauer, "An Uneasy Partnership," p. 93.
127. The Monitor, Feb. 3, 1998; FBIS, CEura, Jan. 27, 1998, from RIA (Moscow), Jan. 23, 1998; Felgengauer, "An Uneasy Partnership"; and Blank, The Dynamics of Russian Arms Sales Felgengauer, "An Uneasy Partnership," p. 93.
128. The Monitor, Feb. 3, 1998; FBIS, CEura, Jan. 27, 1998, from RIA (Moscow), Jan. 23, 1998; Felgengauer, "An Uneasy Partnership"; and Blank, The Dynamics of Russian Arms Sales Felgengauer, "An Uneasy Partnership," p. 93.
129. Stephen Blank, "Soviet Perspectives on Anns Control in the Korean Peninsula," Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, Summer 1991, pp. 130-34
130. Alastair Iain Johnson, "China's New 'Old Thinking' The Concept of Limited Deterrence," International Security, Winter 1995/96, pp 5-42, Banning N Garrett and Bonnie S. Glaser, "Chinese Perspectives on Nuclear Arms Control," International Security, Winter 1995/96, pp 43-78.
131. Alastair Iain Johnson, "China's New 'Old Thinking' The Concept of Limited Deterrence," International Security, Winter 1995/96, pp 5-42, Banning N Garrett and Bonnie S. Glaser, "Chinese Perspectives on Nuclear Arms Control," International Security, Winter 1995/96, pp 43-78.
132. This conclusion emerged at the discussions of the CAPS-RAND conference on foreign arms sales to China (Oxford, England, June 26-29, 1997)
133. Ibid
134. Jing-dong Yuan and Yuchao Zhu, "Sizing Up [the] Chinese Military Buildup The Limitations to Defense Modernization," Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, Summer 1996, pp. 241-51; Kathy Chen, "China's Inability to Keep Subs Running Shows Broader Woes Plaguing Military," Wall Street Journal, Aug 1, 1997, p. 10
135. Jing-dong Yuan and Yuchao Zhu, "Sizing Up [the] Chinese Military Buildup The Limitations to Defense Modernization," Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, Summer 1996, pp. 241-51; Kathy Chen, "China's Inability to Keep Subs Running Shows Broader Woes Plaguing Military," Wall Street Journal, Aug 1, 1997, p. 10
136. Michael Pillsbury, ed , Chinese Views of Future Warfare (Washington, D C . Institute for National Security Studies, National Defense University Press, 1997)
137. Andrew J. Nathan and Robert S. Ross, The Great Wall and the Empty Fortress: China's Search for Identity (New York: W.W. Norton, 1997), p. 207.
138. Felgengauer, "An Uneasy Partnership," pp. 87-105.
139. Andrei Pinkov, "China Shops for More Russian Arms," International Defense Review, Sept. 1996, p. 9; Bill Gertz, "Pentagon Says Russians Sold Destroyers to China," Washington Times, Jan. 10, 1997; "China Expands Reach with Russian Destroyers," Jane's Defence Weekly, Jan. 15, 1997, p. 6; Duncan Lennox, ed., Jane's Strategic Weapons Systems (Surrey, England: Jane's Information Group Ltd., Sept. 1996), issue 22.
140. Andrei Pinkov, "China Shops for More Russian Arms," International Defense Review, Sept. 1996, p. 9; Bill Gertz, "Pentagon Says Russians Sold Destroyers to China," Washington Times, Jan. 10, 1997; "China Expands Reach with Russian Destroyers," Jane's Defence Weekly, Jan. 15, 1997, p. 6; Duncan Lennox, ed., Jane's Strategic Weapons Systems (Surrey, England: Jane's Information Group Ltd., Sept. 1996), issue 22.
141. Andrei Pinkov, "China Shops for More Russian Arms," International Defense Review, Sept. 1996, p. 9; Bill Gertz, "Pentagon Says Russians Sold Destroyers to China," Washington Times, Jan. 10, 1997; "China Expands Reach with Russian Destroyers," Jane's Defence Weekly, Jan. 15, 1997, p. 6; Duncan Lennox, ed., Jane's Strategic Weapons Systems (Surrey, England: Jane's Information Group Ltd., Sept. 1996), issue 22.
142. Andrei Pinkov, "China Shops for More Russian Arms," International Defense Review, Sept. 1996, p. 9; Bill Gertz, "Pentagon Says Russians Sold Destroyers to China," Washington Times, Jan. 10, 1997; "China Expands Reach with Russian Destroyers," Jane's Defence Weekly, Jan. 15, 1997, p. 6; Duncan Lennox, ed., Jane's Strategic Weapons Systems (Surrey, England: Jane's Information Group Ltd., Sept. 1996), issue 22.
143. Kent E. Calder, Pacific Defense: Arms, Energy, and America's Future in Asia (New York: William Morrow, 1996), pp. 38-39. This was related by Aleksei Arbatov at the annual conference on Russian defense decision making (Monterey, Calif., U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, Mar. 25-27, 1997).