The Perceptions of China by Russia's Foreign Policy Elite

Issues and Studies

Volumn 33, Issue 3, 1997, Pages 1-20

  Voskressenski, Alexei D ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

China; Foreign policy; Russia; Security; Taiwan

Indexed keywords

EID: 0040323122     PISSN: 10132511     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (77)

1. The "official" views expressed by different political forces in Russia do not provide much information for the analysis. See, for example, "1995 Elections: [Political] Parties' Foreign Policy Perceptions," Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn' (International Life), 1995, no. 11-12:5-26. Opinions expressed orally by leaders of parties or political movements always raise the question of correct interpretation. The views analyzed in this paper have been expressed in writing by party leaders, government officials, and members of the policy-analyzing community who serve officially or unofficially as consultants or advisers to different political movements, parties, or institutions. In most of the cases, these people do not make any secret about their political preferences; however, the views of some of them are classified according to my own understanding of their place in the Russian political spectrum, thus, I bear the sole responsibility for these classifications. In all cases, I am writing about "perceptions" and "visions" and not about actual policies. I am fully aware of the gap between the perception and influence of perception on policy and its actual implementation, but I believe exploring this gap is outside the scope of an academic paper. Some ideas on this subject can be found in V. Borisov, "Foreign Policy and the Preelection Struggle," ibid., 27-32.
2. The "official" views expressed by different political forces in Russia do not provide much information for the analysis. See, for example, "1995 Elections: [Political] Parties' Foreign Policy Perceptions," Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn' (International Life), 1995, no. 11-12:5-26. Opinions expressed orally by leaders of parties or political movements always raise the question of correct interpretation. The views analyzed in this paper have been expressed in writing by party leaders, government officials, and members of the policy-analyzing community who serve officially or unofficially as consultants or advisers to different political movements, parties, or institutions. In most of the cases, these people do not make any secret about their political preferences; however, the views of some of them are classified according to my own understanding of their place in the Russian political spectrum, thus, I bear the sole responsibility for these classifications. In all cases, I am writing about "perceptions" and "visions" and not about actual policies. I am fully aware of the gap between the perception and influence of perception on policy and its actual implementation, but I believe exploring this gap is outside the scope of an academic paper. Some ideas on this subject can be found in V. Borisov, "Foreign Policy and the Preelection Struggle," ibid., 27-32.
3. See Alexei Voskressenski, "Russia and China: There Is No Alternative to Developing Relations," Segodnya (Today), April 12, 1996, 9.
4. This systematization is valid for Russia only. For the reflections on this theme in the Western scholarly literature that is characterized as "the mainstream" (orthodox) and "against the mainstream" (antiorthodox), see Peter Nolan, China's Rise, Russia's Fall: Politics, Economics and Planning in the Transition from Stalinism (London: Macmillan; New York: St. Martin's, 1995).
5. A. G. Yakovlev, "Russia and China: The Current Stage and Prospects of Relations," in Kitai v mirovoi i regional'noi politike: Istoriya i sovremennost' (China in the world and regional politics: History and current affairs) (Information Bulletin no. 3 of the Institute of the Far Eastern Studies, Moscow, 1995), 28-48.
6. Yegor Gaidar, "Russia in the Twenty-first Century Is Not the World Policeman, But the Outpost of Democracy in Eurasia," Izvestiya, May 18, 1995, 4.
7. See publications of the last three years in such Russian newspapers as Segodnya, Izvestiya, Komsomol'skaya Pravda, Novaya Gazeta, Literaturnaya Gazeta, and Krasnaya Zvezda as well as in such regional publications as Tikhookeanskaya Zvezda, Vostok Rossii, Vladivostok, Amurskaya Pravda, and Utro Rossii Part of this literature was analyzed in the paper by Gilbert Rozman, "Russian Populist Reactions in 1993-94 to the Coming of the Chinese" (Paper presented at the conference on "Recent Demographic Trends in Eastern Siberia: The Question of Chinese Immigration," Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, December 12-13, 1994). For the most recent Russian attitudes to this problem, see R. Beknazar-Yuzbashev and D. Ukhlin, "Chinese Moscow," Itogi (Summary), 1996, no. 4:55-58; and A. Vinogradov, "The Great North Virgin Soil," ibid., 60-61.
8. See publications of the last three years in such Russian newspapers as Segodnya, Izvestiya, Komsomol'skaya Pravda, Novaya Gazeta, Literaturnaya Gazeta, and Krasnaya Zvezda as well as in such regional publications as Tikhookeanskaya Zvezda, Vostok Rossii, Vladivostok, Amurskaya Pravda, and Utro Rossii Part of this literature was analyzed in the paper by Gilbert Rozman, "Russian Populist Reactions in 1993-94 to the Coming of the Chinese" (Paper presented at the conference on "Recent Demographic Trends in Eastern Siberia: The Question of Chinese Immigration," Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, December 12-13, 1994). For the most recent Russian attitudes to this problem, see R. Beknazar-Yuzbashev and D. Ukhlin, "Chinese Moscow," Itogi (Summary), 1996, no. 4:55-58; and A. Vinogradov, "The Great North Virgin Soil," ibid., 60-61.
9. See publications of the last three years in such Russian newspapers as Segodnya, Izvestiya, Komsomol'skaya Pravda, Novaya Gazeta, Literaturnaya Gazeta, and Krasnaya Zvezda as well as in such regional publications as Tikhookeanskaya Zvezda, Vostok Rossii, Vladivostok, Amurskaya Pravda, and Utro Rossii Part of this literature was analyzed in the paper by Gilbert Rozman, "Russian Populist Reactions in 1993-94 to the Coming of the Chinese" (Paper presented at the conference on "Recent Demographic Trends in Eastern Siberia: The Question of Chinese Immigration," Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, December 12-13, 1994). For the most recent Russian attitudes to this problem, see R. Beknazar-Yuzbashev and D. Ukhlin, "Chinese Moscow," Itogi (Summary), 1996, no. 4:55-58; and A. Vinogradov, "The Great North Virgin Soil," ibid., 60-61.
10. A Yakovlev, "The International Political Situation in Northeast Asia and the Russian Position in the Region," Problemy Dal'nego Vostoka (Problems of the Far East), 1995, no. 2:3-13.
11. Ibid. See also A. Yakovlev, "International Political Stability in the Asia-Pacific Region and China," Problemy Dal'nego Vostoka, 1995, no. 5:3-9.
12. Yakovlev, "International Political Stability," 4.
13. Ibid., 4-5.
14. Ibid.
15. Ibid., 5-6.
16. A. G. Yakovlev, "The Chinese Threat to Russia: Myth or Reality?" in Problemy i potentsial ustoichivogo razvitiya Kitaya i Rossii v XXI veke (The problems of and potential for China and Russia's sustainable development in the twenty-first century), Proceedings of the Sixth International Academic Conference on "China, Chinese Civilization, and the World: History, Current Situation, and Prospects," 2 vols. (Moscow: Institut Dal'nego Vostoka Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk, 1996), 1:124-27.
17. See note 5 above.
18. V. Larin "The Russian Far East and the Security Problems in East Asia," Vestnik Dal'nevostochnogo Otdeleniya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk (Newsletter of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences), 1995, no. 6:12-25.
19. Andrei Kozirev, Preobrazheniye (Transfiguration) (Moscow: Mezhdunarodniye otnosheniya, 1995), 244.
20. Ibid. See also S. Rogov, "Russia and China in the Multipolar World," SShA: Ekonomika, Politika, Ideologiya (The United States: Economics, Politics, and Ideology), 1992, no. 10:3-14.
21. For instance, see Kozirev, Preobrazheniye.
22. A. Bogaturov, "The Crisis of the World System Regulation," Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn', 1993, no. 7:30.
23. A. Bogaturov, "The Pluralistic Monopolarity and Russian Interests," Svobodnaya Misl' (Free Thought), 1996, no. 2:25-36.
24. V. Benevolenskii, A. Bogaturov, Yu. Davidov et al., Etap za gobal'nim: Liberal nii natsionalizm vo vneshnei politike Rossii (For the global stage: Liberal nationalism in Russian foreign policy) (Moscow: Rossiiskii Nauchnii Fond, 1994), Scholarly Report no. 20:8-11.
25. Ibid.
26. Ibid.
27. See L. Deliusin "The 'Possible Adversary' Syndrome: Who Pictures China as a Threat to Russia and Why," Literaturnaya Gazeta (Literary Gazette), May 1, 1996, 14 For the current debates in Russia, see the series of articles published in the section "Novii Peredel Mira" (New Division of the World), Ekspert (Expert), June 10, 1996, no. 22:36-46.
28. See L. Deliusin "The 'Possible Adversary' Syndrome: Who Pictures China as a Threat to Russia and Why," Literaturnaya Gazeta (Literary Gazette), May 1, 1996, 14 For the current debates in Russia, see the series of articles published in the section "Novii Peredel Mira" (New Division of the World), Ekspert (Expert), June 10, 1996, no. 22:36-46.
29. Ye. Afanas'ev and G. Logvinov, "Russia and China: On the Threshold of the Third Millennium," Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn', 1995, no. 11-12:51-60; M. Titarenko "China in the Post-Deng Epoch and Russian Chinese Relations, ibid., 1995, no. 8:27-36. For the sharp criticism of pessimistic views in Russia from a different perspective, see also the article by L. Deliusin cited in note 24.
30. Ye. Afanas'ev and G. Logvinov, "Russia and China: On the Threshold of the Third Millennium," Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn', 1995, no. 11-12:51-60; M. Titarenko "China in the Post-Deng Epoch and Russian Chinese Relations, ibid., 1995, no. 8:27-36. For the sharp criticism of pessimistic views in Russia from a different perspective, see also the article by L. Deliusin cited in note 24.
31. See, for example, the following two articles by A. Kitov: "In China, All People Are Chinese. . .," Literaturnaya Gazeta, July 19, 1995, 14; and "The Cat That Is Going by Itself: The Pessimist's Notes on China's Past, Current, and Future Foreign Policy," ibid., September 20, 1995, 14.
32. See, for example, the following two articles by A. Kitov: "In China, All People Are Chinese. . .," Literaturnaya Gazeta, July 19, 1995, 14; and "The Cat That Is Going by Itself: The Pessimist's Notes on China's Past, Current, and Future Foreign Policy," ibid., September 20, 1995, 14.
33. A. Vengerovskii, Khochu i mogu (I Want and I Can) (Moscow: AO Nil Tsentr-programsystem, 1995); see a respective chapter on China, pp. 167-72. See also both articles by A. Kitov cited in note 27.
34. For extensive analysis of these problems, see Migratsionnaya situatsiya na Dal'nem Vostoke i politika Rossii (Migration situation in the Far East and Russian politics) (Moscow: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1996), Scholarly report no.
35. See also Kozirev, Preobrazheniye, 241-42.
36. P. Felgengauer, "Russia and the Conflict in the Taiwan Strait," Segodnya, March 13, 1996, 5.
37. Ibid.
38. V. Abarinov, "Benefits of the Alliance with [the People's Republic of] China Are Dubious," Segodnya, March 13, 1996, 5. See also note 5 above.
39. See, for example, Sergei Repko, "We Will Never Be Allies: Russia for the PRC Is the 'Undisputed Enemy' or the "Warring Force'," Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obozreniye (Independent Military Review), Addition to Nezavisimaya Gazeta (Independent Gazette), July 1996, no. 14:1-2.
40. See details in S. Trusch, "Russia's Selling Weapons to Beijing: Reasons and Doubts," Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obozreniye, Addition to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, April 25, 1996, 6; and in more general context in S. Rogov, "Russia's Eurasian Project," NG-Stsenarii (NG-Scenarios), Addition to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, August 29, 1995, no. 5:6-7.
41. See details in S. Trusch, "Russia's Selling Weapons to Beijing: Reasons and Doubts," Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obozreniye, Addition to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, April 25, 1996, 6; and in more general context in S. Rogov, "Russia's Eurasian Project," NG-Stsenarii (NG-Scenarios), Addition to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, August 29, 1995, no. 5:6-7.
42. Alexei Voskressenski "China: A Partner or a Future Adversary?" Segodnya, September 31, 1995, 6; Vilya Gel'bras, "China after Deng Xiaoping: Problems of Economic Develoment," Vostok (Oriens), 1995, no. 6:45-55; and Vilya Gel'bras, Aziatskotikhookeanskii region: Problemi ekonomicheskoi bezopasnosti Rossii (The Asia-Pacific region: Problems of Russia's economic security) (Moscow: Institute of Microeconomics of the Ministry of Economics of the Russian Federation, 1995).
43. Alexei Voskressenski "China: A Partner or a Future Adversary?" Segodnya, September 31, 1995, 6; Vilya Gel'bras, "China after Deng Xiaoping: Problems of Economic Develoment," Vostok (Oriens), 1995, no. 6:45-55; and Vilya Gel'bras, Aziatskotikhookeanskii region: Problemi ekonomicheskoi bezopasnosti Rossii (The Asia-Pacific region: Problems of Russia's economic security) (Moscow: Institute of Microeconomics of the Ministry of Economics of the Russian Federation, 1995).
44. Alexei Voskressenski "China: A Partner or a Future Adversary?" Segodnya, September 31, 1995, 6; Vilya Gel'bras, "China after Deng Xiaoping: Problems of Economic Develoment," Vostok (Oriens), 1995, no. 6:45-55; and Vilya Gel'bras, Aziatskotikhookeanskii region: Problemi ekonomicheskoi bezopasnosti Rossii (The Asia-Pacific region: Problems of Russia's economic security) (Moscow: Institute of Microeconomics of the Ministry of Economics of the Russian Federation, 1995).
45. Alexei Voskressenski, "On the Break of the Millennia: A Predictable Mutually Beneficial Relationship Must Become the Strategic Foundation of the Russian-Chinese Relationship," Nezavisimaya Gazeta, March 29, 1996, 4. For a different view from liberal alarmist prospective, see note 5 above.
46. In this connection, the interpretation of my views abroad by Quansheng Zhao in Interpreting Chinese Foreign Policy (Hong Kong: Oxford University Press, 1996), 218, shows a different and not-so-sophisticated understanding compared to internal Russian analysis. For example, see Alexei Bogaturov, "Confrontation and Stability in Russia's Relations with the United States in East Asia After World War II, 1945-95" Doctoral diss., Institute of the USA and Canada Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences 1996), 383-84. In this connection, it must be mentioned that mainland China currently effects a very cautious and sophisticated policy toward Russia, and there is an evolving consensus in Russia that Russian-Chinese partnership - if it is not aimed at third countries and is enacted mainly within economic spheres - will contribute to the modernization and development of both countries. However, the changing dynamics of both international relations and domestic developments will reveal the real character of these adjusting relationships.
47. In this connection, the interpretation of my views abroad by Quansheng Zhao in Interpreting Chinese Foreign Policy (Hong Kong: Oxford University Press, 1996), 218, shows a different and not-so-sophisticated understanding compared to internal Russian analysis. For example, see Alexei Bogaturov, "Confrontation and Stability in Russia's Relations with the United States in East Asia After World War II, 1945-95" Doctoral diss., Institute of the USA and Canada Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences 1996), 383-84. In this connection, it must be mentioned that mainland China currently effects a very cautious and sophisticated policy toward Russia, and there is an evolving consensus in Russia that Russian-Chinese partnership - if it is not aimed at third countries and is enacted mainly within economic spheres - will contribute to the modernization and development of both countries. However, the changing dynamics of both international relations and domestic developments will reveal the real character of these adjusting relationships.
48. Bogaturov, "Confrontation and Stability," 383-84.
49. Another classification of the Russian views on China is under consideration by Professor Vilya Gel'bras; his preliminary thoughts on this subject were delivered during a joint Russian-Chinese-American seminar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Moscow Center, September 23, 1995.
50. A. Yakovlev, "Russia and China as Subjects of World Politics," Obozrevatel' (Observer), 1994, no. 19-20:57-69.
51. Ibid., 58-59.
52. Ibid.
53. Ibid.
54. Ibid.
55. See, for example, a series of anonymous articles that appeared in the newspaper Dumskaya Tribuna (distributed in Duma, lower house of the Russian Parliament) in September-October 1995; and Yakovlev, "Russia and China: The Current Stage and Prospects of Relations," 45.
56. See, for example, a series of anonymous articles that appeared in the newspaper Dumskaya Tribuna (distributed in Duma, lower house of the Russian Parliament) in September-October 1995; and Yakovlev, "Russia and China: The Current Stage and Prospects of Relations," 45.
57. Ibid.
58. See Benevolenskii, Bogaturov, Davidov et al., Etap za Global'nim (cited in note 21). It must be noted also that the liberal view in this respect corresponds generally (there are nuances that are neglected here for the "classifying" benefits) with the understanding of centrists and pragmatists. See, for example, Konstantin Sorokin, Geopolitika sovremennosti i geostrategiya Rossii (Geopolitics of modern times and the geostrategy of Russia) (Moscow: Rospen, 1996), 40-44.
59. See Benevolenskii, Bogaturov, Davidov et al., Etap za Global'nim (cited in note 21). It must be noted also that the liberal view in this respect corresponds generally (there are nuances that are neglected here for the "classifying" benefits) with the understanding of centrists and pragmatists. See, for example, Konstantin Sorokin, Geopolitika sovremennosti i geostrategiya Rossii (Geopolitics of modern times and the geostrategy of Russia) (Moscow: Rospen, 1996), 40-44.
60. See note 20 above.
61. Ibid. See also A. Bogaturov and V. Rogov, "Americans Will Not Stop by Themselves: The Current Prospects for Russian-American Relations," NG-Stsenarii, Addition to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, June 1996, no. 3:6.
62. Bogaturov, "The Pluralistic Monopolarity and Russian Interests," 34.
63. Ibid. See also note 5 above.
64. See note 5 above.
65. Sorokin, Geopolitika sovremennosti, 54-58.
66. Voskressenski, "On the Break of the Millennia," 4.
67. On a "state" level, this view was voiced by "late" (compared to "early," i.e., more "pro-Western") Andrei Kozirev. See Kozirev, Preobrazheniye, 241.
68. Alexei D. Voskressenski, ed., Russia-China-USA: Redefining the Triangle (New York: 1996).
69. Alexei D. Voskressenski. "China in Russia's Foreign Policy Strategy," Svobodnaya Misl', 1996, no. 1:94-105.
70. For different modifications of these ideas, see ibid., and Sorokin, Geopolitika sovremennosti, 54-58.
71. For a detailed elaboration of this position, see Rogov, "Russia's Eurasian Project," 6-7.
72. V. Miasnikov, "The Second China Visit of the President," Segodnya, April 18, 1996, 5.
73. Afanas'ev and Logvinov, "Russia and China," 59.
74. See note 2 above .
75. Alexei Voskressenski, "The Wind from the West or the Wind from the East? Russia, the United States, China, and the World," Svobodnaya Misl', 1996, no. 10:89-100.
76. For a similar classification, see D. Furman, "Russian Foreign Policy Orientations," Svobodnaya Misl', 1995, no. 8:3-17.
77. At least nonruling elite groups.