Rationale, concepts and approach to the assessment

Ambio

Volumn 33, Issue 7, 2004, Pages 393-397

  Callaghan, Terry V ^a   Björn, Lars Olof ^b   Chernov, Yuri ^c   Chapin, Terry ^d   Christensen, Torben R ^b   Huntley, Brian ^e   Ims, Rolf A ^f   Johansson, Margareta ^a   Jolly, Dyanna ^g   Jonasson, Sven ^h   Matveyeva, Nadya ⁱ   Panikov, Nicolai ^j   Oechel, Walter ^k   Shaver, Gus ^l   Zöckler, Christoph ^m  

^a ABISKO SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH STATION   (Sweden)

^b LUND UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^c RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES   (Russian Federation)

^d UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS   (United States)

^e DURHAM UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^f UNIVERSITY OF TROMSØ   (Norway)

^g LINCOLN UNIVERSITY   (New Zealand)

^h UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN   (Denmark)

ⁱ KOMAROV BOTANICAL INSTITUTE   (Russian Federation)

^j STEVENS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

^k SAN DIEGO STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^l ECOSYSTEMS CENTER   (United States)

^m UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME WORLD CONSERVATION MONITORING CENTRE   (United Kingdom)

more..

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM RESPONSE; ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT;

EID: 8844261185     PISSN: 00447447     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1579/0044-7447-33.7.393     Document Type: Review

References (52)

1. ACIA 2004. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge University Press.
2. Callaghan, T, V., Björn, L. O., Chernov, Y, Chapin, III. F. S., Christensen, T. R., Huntley, B., Ims, R.A., Johansson, M., Jolly, D., Jonasson, S., Matveyeva, N., Panikov, N., Oechel, W. C., Shaver, G. R. and Henttonen, H. 2004. Effects on the structure of Arctic ecosystems in the short- and long-term. Ambio 33, 436-447.
3. Callaghan, T. V., Crawford, R. M. M., Eronen, M., Hofgaard, A., Payette, S., Rees, W. G., Skre, O., Sveinbjörnsson, B., Vlassova, T. K., and Werkman, B. R. 2002. The dynamics of the Tundra-Taiga Boundary: An overview and suggested coordinated and integrated approach to research. Ambio Special Report 12, Tundra-Taiga Treeline Research, 3-5.
4. Callaghan, T. V., Werkman, B. R. and Crawford, R. M. 2002. The Tundra-Taiga interface and its dynamics: Concepts and Applications. Ambio Special Report 12, Tundra-Taiga Treeline Research, 6-14.
5. Köppen, W. 1931. Grundriss der klimakunde. Walter de Gruyter & Co, Berlin, 388 pp. (In German).
6. Weller, G. 2000. The weather and climate of the Arctic. In: The Arctic Environment, People, Policy. Nuttall, M. and Callaghan, T. V. (eds). Harwood academic publishers, Amsterdam. pp. 143-160.
7. Jonasson, S., Callaghan, T.V., Shaver, G. R. and Nielsen, L. A. 2000. Arctic Terrestrial ecosystems and ecosystem function. In: The Arctic Environment, People, Policy. Nuttall, M. and Callaghan, T. V. (eds). Harwood academic publishers, Amsterdam. pp. 275-314.
8. Bovis, M.J. and Barry, R.G. 1973. A climatological analysis of north polar desert areas. In: Polar Deserts and Modern Man. Smiley, T. L. and Zumberge, J. H. (eds). Univ. of Arizona Press, Tucson. pp. 23-31.
9. Brown, J., Everett, K. R., Webber, P. J., MacLean, Jr. S. F. and Murray, D. F. 1980. The coastal Tundra at Barrow. In: An Arctic Ecosystem The Coastal Tundra at Barrow Alaska. Brown, J., Miller, P. C., Tiezen, L. L. and Bunnell, F. L. (eds). Dowden, Hutchingson & Ross Inc. pp. 1-29.
10. Webber, P. J., Miller, P. C., Chapin III, F. S. and McCown, B. H. 1980. The Vegetation: Patterns and Succession. In: An Arctic Ecosystem The Coastal Tundra at Barrow Alaska. Brown, J., Miller, P. C., Tiezen, L. L. and Bunnell, F. L. (eds). Dowden, Hutchingson & Ross Inc. pp. 186-218.
11. Callaghan, T, V., Björn, L. O., Chernov, Y, Chapin, III. F. S., Christensen, T. R., Huntley, B., Ims, R.A., Jolly, D., Johansson, M., Jonasson, S., Matveyeva, N., Panikov, N., Oechel, W. C., Shaver, G. R., Elster, J., Henttonen, H., Laine, K., Taulavuori, K., Taulavuori, E. and Zöckler, C. 2004. Biodiversity, distributions and adaptations of Arctic species in the context of environmental change. Ambio 33, 404-417.
12. Bliss, L. C. and Matveyeva, N. V. 1992. Circumpolar Arctic vegetation. In: Arctic Ecosystems in a Changing Climate: An Ecophysiological Perspective. Chapin, III, F. S., Jefferies, R. L., Reynolds, J. F., Shaver, G. R. and Svoboda, J. (eds). Academic Press, San Diego. pp 59-89.
13. Walker, D. A. 2000. Hierarchical subdivision of Arctic tundra based on vegetation response to climate, parent material and topography. Global Change Biology, 6 (suppl. I), 19-34.
14. Kaplan, J. O., Bigelow, N. H., Prentice, I. C., Harrison, S. P., Bartlein, P. J., Christensen, T. R., Cramer, W., Matveyeva, N. V., McGuire, A. D., Murray, D. F., Razzhivin, V. Y., Smith, B., Walker, D. A., Anderson, P. M., Andrev, A. A., Brubaker, L. B., Edwards, M. E. and Lozhkin, A. V. 2003. Climate change and Arctic ecosystems II. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections. J. Geophys. Res. 108, D19, 8171.
15. Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map Team. 2001. Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map. Scale 1:7,500,000. Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna, CAFF, Map No 1.
16. Matveyeva, N. and Chernov, Y. 2000. Biodiversity of terrestrial ecosystems. In: The Arctic Environment, People, Policy. Nuttall, M. and Callaghan, T. V. (eds). Harwood Academic Publishers, Amsterdam. pp. 233-274.
17. Chernov, Yu. I. 2002. Arctic biota: taxonomic diversity. Zool. zhurn., 81, 1411-1431. (In Russian with English summary).
18. Callaghan, T, V., Björn, L. O., Chernov, Y, Chapin, III. F. S., Christensen, T. R., Huntley, B., Ims, R.A., Jolly, D., Johansson, M., Jonasson, S., Matveyeva, N., Panikov, N., Oechel, W. C. and Shaver, G. R. 2004. Effects on the function of Arctic ecosystems in the short- and long-term. Ambio 33, 448-458.
19. Dixon, E.J. 2001. Human colonization of the Americas: timing, technology and process. Quat. Sci. Rev. 20, 277-299.
20. Thommessen, T. 1996. The early settlement of northern Norway. In: The Earliest Settlement of Scandinavia. Larsson, L. (ed). Acta Archaeologica Lundensia 8, 235-240.
21. Pavlov, P, J. Svendsen, I. and Indrelid, S. 2001. Human presence in the European Arctic nearly 40,000 years ago. Nature 413, 64-67.
22. Stuart, A. J., Sulerzhitsky, L. D., Orlova, L. A., Kuzmin, Y. V. and Lister, A. M. 2002. The latest woolly mammoths (Mammuthus primigenius Blumenbach) in Europe and Asia: a review of current evidence. Quat. Sci. Rev. 21, 1559-1569.
23. Alroy, J. 2001. A multispecies overkill simulation of the end-Pleistocene megafaunal mass extinction. Science 292, 1893-1896.
24. Berkes, F. and Fast, H. 1996. Aboriginal peoples: The basis for policy-making towards sustainable development. In: Achieving Sustainable Development. Dale A. and Robinson, J.B. (eds). University of British Columbia Press, Vancouver. pp 204-264.
25. Nellemann, C., Kullerud, L., Vistnes, J., Forges, B. C., Kofinas, G. P., Kaltenborn, B. P., Gron, O., Henry, D. Magomedova, M., Lambrechts, C., Bobiwash, R., Schei, P. J. and Larsen, T. S. 2001. GLOBIO - Global Methodology for Mapping Human Impacts on the Biosphere. United Nations Environment Programme.
26. Vlassova, T. K. 2002. Human Impacts on the Tundra-Taiga Zone Dynamics: The Case of the Russian Lesotundra. Ambio Special Report 12, Tundra-Taiga Treeline Research, 30-36.
27. Sala, O.E. and Chapin, III, F.S. 2000. Scenarios of Global Biodiversity, IGBP Newsletter 43, 7-11.
28. Callaghan, T, V., Björn, L. O., Chernov, Y, Chapin, III. F. S., Christensen, T. R., Huntley, B., Ims, R.A., Jolly, D., Johansson, M., Jonasson, S., Matveyeva, N., Panikov, N., Oechel, W. C. and Shaver, G. R. 2004. Past changes in arctic terrestrial ecosystems, climate and UV-B radiation. Ambio 33, 398-403.
29. Crawford, R. M. M. (ed). 1997. Disturbance and Recovery in Arctic Lands: An Ecological Perspective. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands. 621pp.
30. Walker, D. A. and Walker, M. D. 1991. History and pattern of disturbance in Alaskan Arctic terrestrial ecosystems: a hierarchical approach to analysing landscape change. J. Applied Ecol. 28, 244-276.
31. Forbes, B. C., Ebersole, J.J. and Strandberg, B. 2001. Anthropogenic disturbance and patch dynamics in Circumpolar Arctic ecosystems. Conserv. Biol. 15, 954-969.
32. Tenow, O. and Bylund, H. 2000. Recovery of a Betula pubescens forest in northern Sweden after severe defoiliation by Epirrita autumnata. J. Veg. Sci. 11, 855-862.
33. Callaghan, T, V., Björn, L. O., Chernov, Y, Chapin, III. F. S., Christensen, T. R., Huntley, B., Ims, R.A., Jolly, D., Johansson, M., Jonasson, S., Matveyeva, N., Panikov, N., Oechel, W. C., Shaver, G. R., Schaphoff, S. and Sitch, S. 2004. Effects on landscape and regional processes and feedbacks to the climate system. Ambio 33, 459-468.
34. Dye, D. G. 2002. Variability and trends in the annual snow-cover cycle in Northern Hemisphere land areas, 1972-2000. Hydrological Processes 16, 3065-3077.
35. Fioletov, V. E., Kerr, J. B., Wardle, D. I., Davies, J., Hare, E. W., McElroy, C. T. and Tarasick, D. W. 1997. Long-term ozone decline over the Canadian Arctic to early 1997 from ground-based and balloon observations. Geophys. Res. Letters 24, 2705-2708.
36. Callaghan, T, V., Björn, L. O., Chernov, Y, Chapin, III. F. S., Christensen, T. R., Huntley, B., Ims, R., Jolly, D., Johansson, M., Jonasson, S., Matveyeva, N., Panikov, N., Oechel, W. C., Shaver, G. R., Elster, J., Jonsdottir, I. S., Laine, K., Taulavuori, K., Taulavuori, E. and Zöckler, C. 2004. Responses to projected changes in climate and UV-B at the species level. Ambio 33, 418-435
37. Phoenix, G., Gwynn-Jones, D., Callaghan, T.V. and Lee, J.A. 2000. The impacts of UV-B radiation on the regeneration of a sub-Arctic heath community. Plant Ecol. 146, 67-75.
38. Johanson, U., Gehrke, C., Björn, L.O. and Callaghan, T.V. 1995. The effects of enhanced UV-B radiation on the growth of dwarf shrubs in a subarctic heathland. Functional Ecol. 9, 713-719.
39. Gwynn-Jones, D, Lee J.A. and Callaghan, T.V. 1997. The effects of UV-B radiation and elevated carbon dioxide on sub-Arctic forest heath ecosystem. Plant Ecol. 128, 242-249.
40. Li, S. S., Paulsson, M. and Björn, L. O. 2002. Temperature-dependent formation and photorepair of DNA damage induced by UV-B radiation in suspension-cultured tobacco cells. J. Photochem. Photobiol. B: Biology 66, 67-72.
41. Li, S., Wang, Y. and Björn, L. O. 2002. Temperature effects on the formation of DNA damage in Nicotiana tabacum leaf discs induced by UV-B irradiation. Ecol. Sci. 21, 115-117.
42. Björn, L. O. 2002. Effects of Ultraviolet-B radiation on terrestrial organisms and ecosystems with special reference to the Arctic. In: UV Radiation and Arctic Ecosystems. Hessen, D.O. (ed). Ecological Studies 153, 93-121.
43. Paulsson, M. 2003. Temperature Effects on UV-B Induced DNA Damage and Repair in Plants and a Lichen. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Lund, 49 pp.
44. Smaglik, P. 2002. A climate of uncertainty. Naturejobs p. 6, Nature, 415.
45. Lee, S. E., Press, M. C. and Lee, J. A. 2000. Observed climate variations during the last 100 years in Lapland, Northern Finland. Int. J. Clim. 20, 329-346.
46. Källén, E., Kattsov, V., Walsh, J. and Weatherhead, E. 2001. Report from the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Modeling and Scenarios Workshop. January 29-31, 2001, Stockholm, Sweden. Available on ACIAs website (http://www.acia.uaf.edu).
47. Taalas, P., Kaurola, J., Kylling, A., Shindell, D., Sausen, R., Dameris, M., Grewe, V., Herman, J., Damski, J. and Steil, B. 2000. The impact of greenhouse gases and halogenated species on future solar UV radiation doses. Geophys. Res. Letters 27, 1127-1130.
48. Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J. and Ephraums, J. J. 1990. Climate Change the IPCC Scientific Assessment. University Press, Cambridge. 365 pp.
49. Callaghan, T, V., Björn, L. O., Chernov, Y, Chapin, III. F. S., Christensen, T. R., Huntley, B., Ims, R.A., Johansson, M., Jolly, D., Jonasson, S., Matveyeva, N., Panikov, N., Oechel, W. C., Shaver, G. R. Elster, J., Henttonen, H., Jonsdottir, I. S., Laine, K., Schaphoff, S., Sitch, S., Taulavuori, K., Taulavuori, E. and Zöckler, C. 2004. Uncertainties and recommendations. Ambio 33, 474-479.
50. Oechel, W. C., Billings, W. D. 1992. Effects of global change on the carbon balance of Arctic plants and ecosystems. In: Arctic Ecosystems in a Changing Climate: An Ecophysiological Perspective. Chapin, III, F. S., Jefferies, R. L., Reynolds, J. F., Shaver, G. R. and Svoboda, J. (eds). Academic Press, San Diego. pp 139-168.
51. Shaver, G. R., Canadell, J., Chapin III, F. S., Gurevitch, J., Harte, J., Henry, G., Ineson, P., Jonasson, S., Melillo, J., Pitelka, L. and Rustad, L. 2000. Global warming and terrestrial ecosystems: A conceptual framework for analysis. Bioscience 50, 871-882.
52. Acknowledgements. We thank Cambridge University Press for permission to reproduce this paper. Chris Callaghan drafted Figure I and Pat Webber and Tamara Polozova kindly gave permission to reproduce and modify Figure 3. Jed Kaplan kindly provided the source material that was modified to present Figure 2. TVC and MJ gratefully acknowledge the grant from the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency that allowed them to participate in ACIA. We thank the participants, reviwers and particularly the leaders of the ACIA process for their various contributions to this study.