A systematic review of covid-19 epidemiology based on current evidence

Journal of Clinical Medicine

Volumn 9, Issue 4, 2020, Pages

  Park, Minah ^a   Cook, Alex R ^a   Lim, Jue Tao ^a   Sun, Yinxiaohe ^a   Dickens, Borame L ^a  

^a NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE   (Singapore)

Author keywords

Basic reproduction number; COVID 19; Epidemiology; Incubation period; SARS CoV 2; Serial interval; Severity

Indexed keywords

BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER; CASE FATALITY RATE; CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019; DISEASE SEVERITY; EPIDEMIC; HEALTH CARE SYSTEM; HUMAN; INCUBATION TIME; INFECTION CONTROL; INFECTION SENSITIVITY; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; MIDDLE EAST RESPIRATORY SYNDROME CORONAVIRUS; QUARANTINE; REVIEW; SARS CORONAVIRUS; SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME CORONAVIRUS 2; SYSTEMATIC REVIEW; TRAVEL; VIRUS TRANSMISSION;

EID: 85114277066     PISSN: None     EISSN: 20770383     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3390/jcm9040967     Document Type: Review

References (53)

1. BNO Tracking Coronavirus: Map, Data and Timeline. Available online: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/(accessed on 18 March 2020).
2. Guan, W.J.; Ni, Z.Y.; Hu, Y.; Liang, W.H.; Ou, C.Q.; He, J.X.; Liu, L.; Shan, H.; Lei, C.L.; Hui, D.S.C. et al. Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China. N. Engl. J. Med. 2020. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
3. Bai, Y.; Yao, L.; Wei, T.; Tian, F.; Jin, D.Y.; Chen, L.; Wang, M. Presumed Asymptomatic Carrier Transmission of COVID-19. JAMA 2020. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
4. Chen, N.; Zhou, M.; Dong, X.; Qu, J.; Gong, F.; Han, Y.; Qiu, Y.; Wang, J.; Liu, Y.; Wei, Y.; et al. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: A descriptive study. Lancet 2020, 395, 507–513. [CrossRef]
5. Cowling, B.J.; Leung, G.M. Epidemiological research priorities for public health control of the ongoing global novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak. Euro Surveill. 2020, 25. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
6. Kretzschmar, M. Measurement and Modeling: Infectious Disease Modeling. In International Encyclopedia of Public Health; Academic Press: Cambridge, MA, USA, 2017; pp. 579–585. ISBN 978-0-12-803708-9.
7. Du, Z.; Wang, L.; Cauchemez, S.; Xu, X.; Wang, X.; Cowling, B.J.; Meyers, L.A. Risk for Transportation of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease from Wuhan to Other Cities in China. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 2020, 26. [CrossRef]
8. Wu, J.T.; Leung, K.; Leung, G.M. Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: A modelling study. Lancet 2020. [CrossRef]
9. Nishiura, H.; Kobayashi, T.; Yang, Y.; Hayashi, K.; Miyama, T.; Kinoshita, R.; Linton, N.M.; Jung, S.M.; Yuan, B.; Suzuki, A.; et al. The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights. J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9, 419. [CrossRef]
10. Li, Q.; Guan, X.; Wu, P.; Wang, X.; Zhou, L.; Tong, Y.; Ren, R.; Leung, K.S.M.; Lau, E.H.Y.; Wong, J.Y. et al. Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia. N. Engl. J. Med. 2020. [CrossRef]
11. Cao, Z.; Zhang, Q.; Lu, X.; Pfeiffer, D.; Wang, L.; Song, H.; Pei, T.; Jia, Z.; Zeng, D.D. Incorporating Human Movement Data to Improve Epidemiological Estimates for 2019-nCoV. medRxiv 2020. [CrossRef]
12. Chinazzi, M.; Davis, J.T.; Ajelli, M.; Gioannini, C.; Litvinova, M.; Merler, S.; Pastore y Piontti, A.; Rossi, L.; Sun, K.; Viboud, C. et al. The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak. medRxiv 2020. [CrossRef]
13. Xiong, H.; Yan, H. Simulating the infected population and spread trend of 2019-nCov under different policy by EIR model. medRxiv 2020. [CrossRef]
14. Zhao, Q.; Chen, Y.; Small, D.S. Analysis of the epidemic growth of the early 2019-nCoV outbreak using internationally confirmed cases. medRxiv 2020. [CrossRef]
15. Zhao, S.; Musa, S.S.; Lin, Q.; Ran, J.; Yang, G.; Wang, W.; Lou, Y.; Yang, L.; Gao, D.; He, D.; et al. Estimating the Unreported Number of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Cases in China in the First Half of January 2020: A Data-Driven Modelling Analysis of the Early Outbreak. J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9, 388. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
16. Zhao, S.; Lin, Q.; Ran, J.; Musa, S.S.; Yang, G.; Wang, W.; Lou, Y.; Gao, D.; Yang, L.; He, D. et al. Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak. Int. J. Infect. Dis. 2020, 92, 214–217. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
17. Riou, J.; Althaus, C.L. Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020. Euro Surveill. 2020, 25. [CrossRef]
18. Tang, B.; Wang, X.; Li, Q.; Bragazzi, N.L.; Tang, S.; Xiao, Y.; Wu, J. Estimation of the Transmission Risk of the 2019-nCoV and Its Implication for Public Health Interventions. J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9, 462. [CrossRef]
19. Jung, S.M.; Akhmetzhanov, A.R.; Hayashi, K.; Linton, N.M.; Yang, Y.; Yuan, B.; Kobayashi, T.; Kinoshita, R.; Nishiura, H. Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases. J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9, 523. [CrossRef]
20. Shen, M.; Peng, Z.; Xiao, Y.; Zhang, L. Modelling the epidemic trend of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in China. bioRxiv 2020. [CrossRef]
21. Read, J.M.; Bridgen, J.R.E.; Cummings, D.A.T.; Ho, A.; Jewell, C.P. Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: Early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions. medRxiv 2020. [CrossRef]
22. Liu, T.; Hu, J.; Kang, M.; Lin, L.; Zhong, H.; Xiao, J.; He, G.; Song, T.; Huang, Q.; Rong, Z. et al. Transmission dynamics of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). bioRxiv 2020. [CrossRef]
23. Majumder, M.; Mandl, K.D. Early Transmissibility Assessment of a Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China (January 26, 2020). SSRN 2020. [CrossRef]
24. Riley, S.; Fraser, C.; Donnelly, C.A.; Ghani, A.C.; Abu-Raddad, L.J.; Hedley, A.J.; Leung, G.M.; Ho, L.M.; Lam, T.H.; Thach, T.Q.; et al. Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of public health interventions. Science 2003, 300, 1961–1966. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
25. Lipsitch, M.; Cohen, T.; Cooper, B.; Robins, J.M.; Ma, S.; James, L.; Gopalakrishna, G.; Chew, S.K.; Tan, C.C.; Samore, M.H.; et al. Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Science 2003, 300, 1966–1970. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
26. Cauchemez, S.; Fraser, C.; Van Kerkhove, M.D.; Donnelly, C.A.; Riley, S.; Rambaut, A.; Enouf, V.; van der Werf, S.; Ferguson, N.M. Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: Quantification of the extent of the epidemic, surveillance biases, and transmissibility. Lancet Infect. Dis. 2014, 14, 50–56. [CrossRef]
27. Backer, J.A.; Klinkenberg, D.; Wallinga, J. Incubation period of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections among travellers from Wuhan, China, 20-28 January 2020. Euro Surveill. 2020, 25. [CrossRef]
28. Linton, N.M.; Kobayashi, T.; Yang, Y.; Hayashi, K.; Akhmetzhanov, A.R.; Jung, S.M.; Yuan, B.; Kinoshita, R.; Nishiura, H. Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data. J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9, 538. [CrossRef]
29. Ki, M.; Task Force for 2019-nCoV. Epidemiologic characteristics of early cases with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) disease in Republic of Korea. Epidemiol. Health 2020, e2020007. [CrossRef]
30. Jiang, X.; Rayner, S.; Luo, M.H. Does SARS-CoV-2 has a longer incubation period than SARS and MERS? J. Med. Virol. 2020. [CrossRef]
31. Lauer, S.A.; Grantz, K.H.; Bi, Q.; Jones, F.K.; Zheng, Q.; Meredith, H.; Azman, A.S.; Reich, N.G.; Lessler, J. The incubation period of 2019-nCoV from publicly reported confirmed cases: Estimation and application. medRxiv 2020. [CrossRef]
32. Zhang, J.; Litvinova, M.; Wang, W.; Wang, Y.; Deng, X.; Chen, X.; Li, M.; Zheng, W.; Yi, L.; Chen, X.; et al. Evolving epidemiology of novel coronavirus diseases 2019 and possible interruption of local transmission outside Hubei Province in China: A descriptive and modeling study. medRxiv 2020. [CrossRef]
33. Lau, E.H.; Hsiung, C.A.; Cowling, B.J.; Chen, C.H.; Ho, L.M.; Tsang, T.; Chang, C.W.; Donnelly, C.A.; Leung, G.M. A comparative epidemiologic analysis of SARS in Hong Kong, Beijing and Taiwan. BMC Infect. Dis. 2010, 10, 50. [CrossRef]
34. Cowling, B.J.; Park, M.; Fang, V.J.; Wu, P.; Leung, G.M.; Wu, J.T. Preliminary epidemiological assessment of MERS-CoV outbreak in South Korea, May to June 2015. Euro Surveill. 2015, 20, 7–13. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
35. Du, Z.; Wang, L.; Xu, X.; Wu, Y.; Cowling, B.J.; Meyers, L.A. The serial interval of COVID-19 from publicly reported confirmed cases. medRxiv 2020. [CrossRef]
36. Nishiura, H.; Linton, N.M.; Akhmetzhanov, A.R. Serial interval of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections. medRxiv 2020. [CrossRef]
37. Zhao, S.; Gao, D.; Zhuang, Z.; Chong, M.; Cai, Y.; Ran, J.; Cao, P.; Wang, K.; Lou, Y.; Wang, W. et al. Estimating the serial interval of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): A statistical analysis using the public data in Hong Kong from January 16 to February 15, 2020. medRxiv 2020. [CrossRef]
38. Assiri, A.; McGeer, A.; Perl, T.M.; Price, C.S.; Al Rabeeah, A.A.; Cummings, D.A.; Alabdullatif, Z.N.; Assad, M.; Almulhim, A.; Makhdoom, H.; et al. Hospital outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. N. Engl. J. Med. 2013, 369, 407–416. [CrossRef]
39. Wu, Z.; McGoogan, J.M. Characteristics of and Important Lessons from the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China: Summary of a Report of 72314 Cases from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. JAMA 2020. [CrossRef]
40. Chen, H.; Guo, J.; Wang, C.; Luo, F.; Yu, X.; Zhang, W.; Li, J.; Zhao, D.; Xu, D.; Gong, Q.; et al. Clinical characteristics and intrauterine vertical transmission potential of COVID-19 infection in nine pregnant women: A retrospective review of medical records. Lancet 2020. [CrossRef]
41. Zhu, H.; Wang, L.; Fang, Z.; Peng, S.; Zhang, L.; Chang, G.; Xia, S.; Zhou, W. Clinical analysis of 10 neonates born to mothers with 2019-nCoV pneumonia. Transl. Pediatr. 2020, 9, 51–60. [CrossRef]
42. Huang, C.; Wang, Y.; Li, X.; Ren, L.; Zhao, J.; Hu, Y.; Zhang, L.; Fan, G.; Xu, J.; Gu, X.; et al. Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. Lancet 2020, 395, 497–506. [CrossRef]
43. WHO. Summary of Probable SARS Cases with Onset of Illness from 1 November 2002 to 31 July 2003. Available online: https://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/table2004_04_21/en/(accessed on 1 March 2020).
44. WHO. Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Available online: https://www.who.int/emergencies/mers-cov/en/(accessed on 1 March 2020).
45. Chen, Z.M.; Fu, J.F.; Shu, Q.; Chen, Y.H.; Hua, C.Z.; Li, F.B.; Lin, R.; Tang, L.F.; Wang, T.L.; Wang, W.; et al. Diagnosis and treatment recommendations for pediatric respiratory infection caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus. World J. Pediatr. 2020. [CrossRef]
46. Wang, X.; Ma, Z.; Ning, Y.; Chen, C.; Chen, R.; Chen, Q.; Zhang, H.; Li, C.; He, Y.; Wang, T. et al. Estimating the case fatality ratio of the COVID-19 epidemic in China. medRxiv 2020. [CrossRef]
47. Mizumoto, K.; Kagaya, K.; Chowell, G. Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission potential and virulence of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan City: China, 2019-2020. medRxiv 2020. [CrossRef]
48. Wilson, N.; Kvalsvig, A.; Telfar Barnard, L.; Baker, M.G. Estimating the Case Fatality Risk of COVID-19 using Cases from Outside China. medRxiv 2020. [CrossRef]
49. Mizumoto, K.; Kagaya, K.; Zarebski, A.; Chowell, G. Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020. Eurosurveillance 2020, 25. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
50. Tian, H.; Liu, Y.; Li, Y.; Kraemer, M.U.G.; Chen, B.; Wu, C.-H.; Cai, J.; Li, B.; Xu, B.; Yang, Q. et al. Early evaluation of transmission control measures in response to the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in China. medRxiv 2020. [CrossRef]
51. Koo, J.R.; Cook, A.R.; Park, M.; Sun, Y.; Sun, H.; Lim, J.T.; Tam, C.; Dickens, B.L. Interventions to mitigate early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore: A modelling study. Lancet Infect Dis 2020. [CrossRef]
52. Quilty, B.J.; Clifford, S.; Flasche, S.; Eggo, R.M. Effectiveness of airport screening at detecting travellers infected with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Euro Surveill. 2020, 25. [CrossRef]
53. Gostic, K.; Gomez, A.C.R.; Mummah, R.O.; Kucharski, A.J.; Lloyd-Smith, J.O. Estimated effectiveness of traveller screening to prevent international spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). medRxiv 2020. [CrossRef]