메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 9, Issue 2, 2020, Pages

Estimation of the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV and its implication for public health interventions

Author keywords

Coronavirus; Infection management and control; Mathematical model; SEIR model; Travel restriction

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER; CHINA; COMPARTMENT MODEL; CONTACT EXAMINATION; CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; MARKOV CHAIN; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD; PREVENTION AND CONTROL; PUBLIC HEALTH; QUARANTINE; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME CORONAVIRUS 2; SIMULATION; TRAVEL; VIRUS TRANSMISSION;

EID: 85114276655     PISSN: None     EISSN: 20770383     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020462     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (1201)

References (33)
  • 1
    • 85078856946 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Coronaviruses: Genome structure, replication, and pathogenesis
    • Chen, Y.; Liu, Q.; Guo, D. Coronaviruses: Genome structure, replication, and pathogenesis. J. Med. Virol. 2020, doi:10.1002/jmv.25681.
    • (2020) J. Med. Virol.
    • Chen, Y.1    Liu, Q.2    Guo, D.3
  • 2
    • 33644820689 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • History and recent advances in coronavirus discovery
    • Kahn, J.S.; McIntosh, K. History and recent advances in coronavirus discovery. Pediatr. Infect. Dis. J. 2005, 24, S223–227.
    • (2005) Pediatr. Infect. Dis. J. , vol.24 , pp. S223-S227
    • Kahn, J.S.1    McIntosh, K.2
  • 3
    • 85073828407 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Severe acute respiratory syndrome: Historical, epidemiologic, and clinical features
    • Hui, D.S.C.; Zumla, A. Severe acute respiratory syndrome: Historical, epidemiologic, and clinical features. Infect. Dis. Clin. North Am. 2019, 33, 869–889.
    • (2019) Infect. Dis. Clin. North Am. , vol.33 , pp. 869-889
    • Hui, D.S.C.1    Zumla, A.2
  • 6
    • 85011043604 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in South Korea, 2015: Epidemiology, characteristics and public health implications
    • Kim, K.H.; Tandi, T.E.; Choi, J.W.; Moon, J.M.; Kim, M.S. Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in South Korea, 2015: Epidemiology, characteristics and public health implications. J. Hosp. Infect. 2017, 95, 207–213.
    • (2017) J. Hosp. Infect. , vol.95 , pp. 207-213
    • Kim, K.H.1    Tandi, T.E.2    Choi, J.W.3    Moon, J.M.4    Kim, M.S.5
  • 7
    • 85076309194 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Comparative analysis of factors influencing two outbreaks of middle eastern respiratory syndrome (MERS) in Saudi Arabia and South Korea
    • Willman, M.; Kobasa, D.; Kindrachuk, J. A Comparative analysis of factors influencing two outbreaks of middle eastern respiratory syndrome (MERS) in Saudi Arabia and South Korea. Viruses 2019, 11, E1119.
    • (2019) Viruses , vol.11
    • Willman, M.1    Kobasa, D.2    Kindrachuk, J.3
  • 8
    • 85061366399 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Epidemic models of contact tracing: Systematic review of transmission studies of severe acute respiratory syndrome and Middle East respiratory syndrome
    • Kwok, K.O.; Tang, A.; Wei, V.W.I.; Park, W.H.; Yeoh, E.K.; Riley, S. Epidemic models of contact tracing: Systematic review of transmission studies of severe acute respiratory syndrome and Middle East respiratory syndrome. Comput. Struct. Biotechnol. J. 2019, 17, 186–194.
    • (2019) Comput. Struct. Biotechnol. J. , vol.17 , pp. 186-194
    • Kwok, K.O.1    Tang, A.2    Wei, V.W.I.3    Park, W.H.4    Yeoh, E.K.5    Riley, S.6
  • 9
    • 85077941653 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • New SARS-like virus in China triggers alarm
    • Cohen, J.; Normile, D. New SARS-like virus in China triggers alarm. Science 2020, 367, 234–235.
    • (2020) Science , vol.367 , pp. 234-235
    • Cohen, J.1    Normile, D.2
  • 10
    • 85078736778 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Outbreak of pneumonia of unknown etiology in Wuhan China: The mystery and the miracle
    • Lu, H.; Stratton, C.W.; Tang, Y.W. Outbreak of pneumonia of unknown etiology in Wuhan China: The mystery and the miracle. J. Med. Virol. 2020, doi:10.1002/jmv.25678.
    • (2020) J. Med. Virol.
    • Lu, H.1    Stratton, C.W.2    Tang, Y.W.3
  • 11
    • 85078547442 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • China coronavirus: Cases surge as official admits human to human transmission
    • Parry J. China coronavirus: Cases surge as official admits human to human transmission. BMJ 2020, 368, m236.
    • (2020) BMJ , vol.368
    • Parry, J.1
  • 12
    • 85079242141 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • accessed on 23 January 2020
    • World Health Organization (WHO). Coronavirus. Available online: https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus (accessed on 23 January 2020).
    • Coronavirus
  • 13
    • 85041418011 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Developing WHO guidelines: Time to formally include evidence from mathematical modelling studies
    • Egger, M.; Johnson, L.; Althaus, C.; Schöni, A.; Salanti, G.; Low, N.; Norris, S.L. Developing WHO guidelines: Time to formally include evidence from mathematical modelling studies. F1000Res. 2017, 6, 1584.
    • (2017) F1000res , vol.6 , pp. 1584
    • Egger, M.1    Johnson, L.2    Althaus, C.3    Schöni, A.4    Salanti, G.5    Low, N.6    Norris, S.L.7
  • 14
    • 85080888551 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A mathematical model for simulating the transmission of Wuhan novel coronavirus
    • Chen, T.; Rui, J.; Wang, Q.; Zhao, Z.; Cui, J-A.; Yin, L. A mathematical model for simulating the transmission of Wuhan novel coronavirus. bioRxiv 2020, doi: 10.1101/2020.01.19.911669v1.
    • (2020) Biorxiv
    • Chen, T.1    Rui, J.2    Wang, Q.3    Zhao, Z.4    Cui, J.-A.5    Yin, L.6
  • 16
    • 85106367960 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • accessed on 23 January 2020
    • World Health Organization (WHO). Novel Coronavirus—China, Disease Outbreak News: Update. Available online: https://www.who.int/csr/don/12-january-2020-novel-coronavirus-china/en/(accessed on 23 January 2020).
    • Novel Coronavirus—China, Disease Outbreak News: Update
  • 17
    • 79951921755 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Available online, (accessed on 23 January 2020)
    • World Health Organization (WHO). Situation Report. Available online: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200123-sitrep-3-2019-ncov.pdf (accessed on 23 January 2020).
    • Situation Report
  • 18
    • 85114279238 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Available online:, accessed on 23 January
    • Health Commission of Hubei Province. Available online: http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/bmdt/ztzl/fkxxgzbdgrfyyq/(accessed on 23 January 2020).
    • (2020)
  • 20
    • 0642315431 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mathematical models of isolation and quarantine
    • Castillo-Chavez, C.; Castillo-Garsow, C.W.; Yakubu, A. Mathematical models of isolation and quarantine. JAMA 2003, 290, 2876–2877.
    • (2003) JAMA , vol.290 , pp. 2876-2877
    • Castillo-Chavez, C.1    Castillo-Garsow, C.W.2    Yakubu, A.3
  • 21
    • 77955291593 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Community-based measures for mitigating the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in China
    • Tang, S.; Xiao, Y.; Yang, Y.; Zhou, Y.; Wu, J.; Ma, Z. Community-based measures for mitigating the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in China. PLoS ONE 2010, 5, e10911.
    • (2010) Plos ONE , vol.5
    • Tang, S.1    Xiao, Y.2    Yang, Y.3    Zhou, Y.4    Wu, J.5    Ma, Z.6
  • 22
    • 84928734960 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Media impact switching surface during an infectious disease outbreak
    • Xiao, Y.; Tang, S.; Wu, J. Media impact switching surface during an infectious disease outbreak. Sci. Rep. 2015, 5, 7838.
    • (2015) Sci. Rep. , vol.5
    • Xiao, Y.1    Tang, S.2    Wu, J.3
  • 23
    • 48049084567 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A likelihood-based method for real-time estimation of the serial interval and reproductive number of an epidemic
    • White, L.F.; Pagano, M. A likelihood-based method for real-time estimation of the serial interval and reproductive number of an epidemic. Stat. Med. 2008, 27, 2999–3016.
    • (2008) Stat. Med. , vol.27 , pp. 2999-3016
    • White, L.F.1    Pagano, M.2
  • 24
    • 85114280103 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • World Health Organization (WHO). Available online: https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/23-01-2020-statement-on-the-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov) (accessed on 23 January 2020).
    • (2020)
  • 25
    • 85082144000 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pneumonia of unknown etiology in Wuhan, China: Potential for international spread via commercial air travel
    • Bogoch, I.I.; Watts, A.; Thomas-Bachli, A.; Huber, C.; Kraemer, M.U.G.; Khan, K. Pneumonia of unknown etiology in Wuhan, China: Potential for international spread via commercial air travel. J. Travel Med. 2020, doi:10.1093/jtm/taaa008.
    • (2020) J. Travel Med.
    • Bogoch, I.I.1    Watts, A.2    Thomas-Bachli, A.3    Huber, C.4    Kraemer, M.U.G.5    Khan, K.6
  • 27
    • 84926063200 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimation of MERS-Coronavirus reproductive number and case fatality rate for the Spring 2014 Saudi Arabia outbreak: Insights from publicly available data
    • Majumder, M.S.; Rivers, C.; Lofgren, E.; Fisman, D. Estimation of MERS-Coronavirus reproductive number and case fatality rate for the Spring 2014 Saudi Arabia outbreak: Insights from publicly available data. PLoS Curr. 2014, 18, 6.
    • (2014) Plos Curr , vol.18 , pp. 6
    • Majumder, M.S.1    Rivers, C.2    Lofgren, E.3    Fisman, D.4
  • 29
    • 85079180879 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak
    • Zhao, S.; Lin, Q.; Ran, J.; Musa, S.S.; Yang, G.; Wang, W.; Lou, Y.; Gao, D.; Yang, L.; He, D.; et al. Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak. Int. J. Infect. Dis. 2020, doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.050.
    • Int. J. Infect. Dis. , vol.2020
    • Zhao, S.1    Lin, Q.2    Ran, J.3    Musa, S.S.4    Yang, G.5    Wang, W.6    Lou, Y.7    Gao, D.8    Yang, L.9    He, D.10
  • 32
    • 85077914756 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The continuing 2019-nCoV epidemic threat of novel coronaviruses to global health-The latest 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China
    • Hui, D.S.; Azhar, E.E.I.; Madani, T.A.; Ntoumi, F.; Kock, R.; Dar, O.; Ippolito, G.; Mchugh, T.D.; Memish, Z.A.; Drosten, C.; et al. The continuing 2019-nCoV epidemic threat of novel coronaviruses to global health-The latest 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China. Int. J. Infect. Dis. 2020, 91, 264–266.
    • (2020) Int. J. Infect. Dis. , vol.91 , pp. 264-266
    • Hui, D.S.1    Azhar, E.E.I.2    Madani, T.A.3    Ntoumi, F.4    Kock, R.5    Dar, O.6    Ippolito, G.7    McHugh, T.D.8    Memish, Z.A.9    Drosten, C.10
  • 33
    • 85078851496 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Preparedness and proactive infection control measures against the emerging Wuhan coronavirus pneumonia in China
    • Cheng, V.C.C.; Wong, S.C.; To, K.K.W.; Ho, P.L.; Yuen, K.Y. Preparedness and proactive infection control measures against the emerging Wuhan coronavirus pneumonia in China. J. Hosp. Infect. 2020, doi:10.1016/j.jhin.2020.01.010.
    • (2020) J. Hosp. Infect.
    • Cheng, V.C.C.1    Wong, S.C.2    To, K.K.W.3    Ho, P.L.4    Yuen, K.Y.5


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.