"Risk" in fisheries management: A review

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Volumn 54, Issue 8, 1997, Pages 1699-1715

  Francis, R I C C ^a   Shotton, R ^b  

^a NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF WATER AND ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (New Zealand)

^b FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS   (Italy)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 85085634228     PISSN: 0706652X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1139/cjfas-54-8-1699     Document Type: Article

References (100)

1. Ahl, A.S., Acree, J.A., Gipson, P.S., McDowell, R.M., Miller, L., and McElvaine, M.D. 1993. Standardization of nomenclature for animal health risk analysis. Rev. Sci. Tech. O.I.E. 12(4): 1045-1053.
2. Angel, J.R., Burke, D.L., O'Boyle, R.N., Peacock, F.G., Sinclair, M., and Zwanenburg, K.C.T. 1994. Report of the workshop on Scotia-Fundy groundfish management from 1977 to 1993. Can. Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. No. 1979.
3. Basson, M. 1993. Risk analysis in fisheries management: the Falkland Islands squid fishery as an example. ICES CM D: 70. ICES, Copenhagen.
4. Beddington, J.R., and Cooke, J.G. 1983. The potential yield of fish stocks. FAO Fish. Tech. Pap. No. 242.
5. Berger, J.O. 1985. Statistical decision theory and Bayesian analysis. Springer-Verlag, New York.
6. Bergh, M.O., and Butterworth, D.S. 1987. Towards rational harvesting of the South African anchovy considering survey imprecision and recruitment variability. S. Afr. J. Mar. Sci. 5: 937-951.
7. Brown, B.E., and Patil, G.P. 1986. Risk analysis in the Georges Bank haddock fishery - a pragmatic example of dealing with uncertainty. North Am. J. Fish. Manage. 6: 183-191.
8. Butterworth, D.S., and Bergh, M.O. 1993. The development of a management procedure for the South African anchovy resource. In Risk evaluation and biological reference points for fisheries management. Edited by S.J. Smith, J.J. Hunt, and D. Rivard. Can. Spec. Publ. Fish. Aquat. Sci. No. 120. pp. 83-99.
9. Butterworth, D.S., De Oliviera, J.A.A., and Cochrane, K.L. 1993. Current initiatives in refining the management procedure for the South African anchovy resource. In Proceedings of the International Symposium on Management Strategies for Exploited Fish Populations, Anchorage, Alaska, 21-24 October 1992. Edited by G. Kruse, D.M. Eggers, R.J. Marasco, C. Pautzke, and T.J. Quinn II. Alaska Sea Grant Coll. Program Rep. No. 93-02. University of Alaska, Fairbanks, pp. 439-473.
10. Caddy, J.F., and Mahon, R. 1995. Reference points for fisheries management. FAO Fish. Tech. Pap. No. 347.
11. Charles, A.T. 1983. Optimal fisheries investment: comparative dynamics for a deterministic seasonal fishery. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 40: 2069-2079.
12. Clark, C.W. 1976. Mathematical bioeconomics: the optimal management of renewable resources. John Wiley & Sons, New York.
13. Cochrane, K.L., and Starfield, A.M. 1992. The potential use of predictions of recruitment success in the management of the South African anchovy resource. S. Afr. J. Mar. Sci. 12: 891-902.
14. Cordue, P.L., and Francis, R.I.C.C. 1994. Accuracy and choice in risk estimation for fisheries assessment. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 51: 817-829.
15. Die, D.J., Restrepo, V.R., and Hoenig, J.M. 1988. Utility-per-recruit modeling: a neglected concept. Trans. Am. Fish. Soc. 117(3): 274-281.
16. Efron, B. 1979 Computers and the theory of statistics: thinking the unthinkable. Soc. Industrial and Applied Mathematics Rev. 21: 460-480.
17. Ferguson, T.S. 1967. Mathematical statistics: a decision theoretic approach. Academic Press, New York.
18. Fogarty, M.J., Rosenberg, A.A., and Sissenwine, M.P. 1992. Fisheries risk assessment: sources of uncertainty. Environ. Sci. Technol. 26(3): 440-447.
19. Fogarty, M.J., Mayo, R.K., O'Brien, L., Serchuk, F.M., and Rosenberg, A.A. 1996. Assessing uncertainty in exploited marine populations. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 54: 183-195.
20. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). 1995a. Code of conduct for responsible fisheries. FAO, Rome.
21. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). 1995b. Precautionary approach to fisheries. Part 1: Guidelines on the precautionary approach to capture fisheries and species introduction. FAO Fish. Tech. Pap. No. 350/1.
22. Francis, R.I.C.C. 1991. Risk analysis in fishery management. North-west Atl. Fish. Organ. Sci. Coun. Stud. 16: 143-148.
23. Francis, R.I.C.C. 1992. Use of risk analysis to assess fishery management strategies: a case study using orange roughy (Hoplostethus atlanticus) on the Chatham Rise, New Zealand. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 49: 922-930.
24. Francis, R.I.C.C. 1993. Monte Carlo evaluation of risks for biological reference points used in New Zealand fishery assessments. In Risk evaluation and biological reference points for fisheries management. Edited by S.J. Smith, J.J. Hunt, and D. Rivard. Can. Spec. Publ. Fish. Aquat. Sci. No. 120. pp. 221-230.
25. Francis, R.I.C.C. 1994. Population modelling in New Zealand's quota management system. In Population Dynamics for Fisheries Management. Australian Society for Fish Biology Workshop Proceedings, Perth, Australia, 24-25 Aug. 1993. Edited by D.A. Hancock. Australian Society for Fish Biology, Perth. pp. 1-15.
26. Garcia, S.M. 1994a. The precautionary approach to fisheries with reference to straddling fish stocks and highly migratory fish stocks. FAO Fish. Circ. No. 871.
27. Garcia, S.M. 1994b. The precautionary principle: its implications in capture fisheries management. Ocean Coastal Manage. 22: 99-125.
28. Garcia, S.M. 1996. The precautionary approach to fisheries and its implications for fishery research, technology and management: an updated review. FAO Fish. Tech. Pap. No. 350. Part 2. pp. 1-76.
29. Getz, W.M., Francis, R.C., and Swartzman, G.L. 1987. On managing variable marine fisheries. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 44: 1370-1375.
30. Hall, D.L., Hilborn, R., Stocker, M., and Walters, C.J.. 1988. Alternative harvest strategies for Pacific herring (Clupea harengus pallasi). Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 45: 888-897.
31. Hannesson, R. 1986. The effect of the discount rate on the optimal exploitation of renewable resources. Mar. Resour. Econ. 3(4): 319-330.
32. Hilborn, R., and Peterman, R.M. 1996. The development of scientific advice with incomplete information in the context of the precautionary approach. FAO Fish. Tech. Pap. No. 350/2. pp. 77-102
33. Hilborn, R., Pikitch, E.K., and Francis, R.C. 1993. Current trends in including risk and uncertainty in stock assessment and harvest decisions. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 50: 874-880.
34. Hollowed, A.B., and Megrey, B.A. 1993. Evaluation of risks associated with application of alternative harvest strategies for Gulf of Alaska walleye pollock. In Proceedings of the International Symposium on Management Strategies for Exploited Fish Populations, Anchorage, Alaska, 21-24 October 1992. Edited by G. Kruse, D.M. Eggers, R.J. Marasco, C. Pautzke, and T.J. Quinn II. Alaska Sea Grant Coll. Program Rep. No. 93-02. University of Alaska, Fairbanks, pp. 291-320.
35. Horwood, J.W. 1987. A calculation of optimal fishing mortalities. J. Cons. Cons. Int. Explor. Mer, 43(3): 199-208.
36. Horwood, J. 1993. Stochastically optimal management of fisheries. ICES CM D:26. ICES, Copenhagen.
37. lanelli, J.N., and Heifetz, J. 1995. Decision analysis of alternative harvest policies for the Gulf of Alaska Pacific ocean perch fishery. Fish. Res. (Amsterdam), 24: 35-63.
38. Keeney, R.L. 1977. A utility function for examining policy affecting salmon on the Skeena River. J. Fish. Res. Board. Can. 34: 49-63.
39. Keeney, R.L., and Raiffa, H. 1976. Decisions with multiple objectives: preference and value tradeoffs. Wiley & Sons, New York.
40. Kesteven, G.L., and S.J. Holt, 1955. Classification on International Conservation Problems. International Technical Conference on the Conservation of the Living Resources of the Sea, Rome, Italy, 18 April - 10 May 1955. Doc. No. A/CONF.10/L.6/Rev.1. United Nations, Rome.
41. Kirkegaard, E., Bailey, R., and Serchuk, F.M. 1995. Recent developments in the form of ACFM advice. Manuscript prepared for the Technical Consultation on the Precautionary Approach to Capture Fisheries. Danish Institute for Fisheries Research, Charlottelund Slot, DK-2920, Charlottelund, Denmark.
42. Kirkwood, G.P. 1993. Incorporating allowance for risk in management: the revised management procedure of the International Whaling Commission. ICES CM N: 11.
43. Kirkwood, G.P. 1997. The revised management procedure of the International Whaling Commission. In Proceedings of the Conference on Fisheries Management: Global Trends, Seattle, Wash., 14-16 June 1994. In press.
44. Kirkwood, G.P., and Smith, A.D.M. 1996. Assessing the precautionary nature of fishery management strategies. FAO Fish. Tech. Pap. No. 350/2. pp. 141-158.
45. Kope, R.G. 1992. Optimal harvest rates for mixed stocks of natural and hatchery fish. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 49(5): 931-938.
46. Lane, D.E., and Stephenson, R.L. 1995. Fisheries management science: the framework to link biological, economic, and social objectives in fisheries management. Aquat. Living Resour. 8: 215-221.
47. Lane, D.E., and Stephenson, R.L. 1997. A framework for risk analysis in fisheries decision making. ICES J. Mar. Sci. In press.
48. Linder, E., Patil, G.P., and Vaughan, D.S. 1987. Application of event tree risk analysis to fisheries management. Ecol. Modell. 36: 15-28.
49. Lindley, D.V. 1985. Making decisions. 2nd ed. John Wiley & Sons, New York.
50. Mace, P.M., and Sissenwine, M.P. 1993. How much spawning per recruit is enough? In Risk evaluation and biological reference points for fisheries management. Edited by S.J. Smith, J.J. Hunt, and D. Rivard. Can. Spec. Publ. Fish. Aquat. Sci. No. 120. pp. 101-118.
51. McAllister, M.K., Pikitch, E.K., Punt, A.E., and Hilborn, R. 1994. A Bayesian approach to stock assessment and harvest decisions using the sampling/importance resampling algorithm. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 51: 2673-2687.
52. Megrey, B.A., Hollowed, A.B., and Baldwin, R.T. 1994. Sensitivity of optimum harvest strategy estimates to alternative definitions of risk. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 51: 2695-2704.
53. Mendelssohn, R. 1982. Discount factors and risk aversion in managing random fish populations. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 39: 1252-1257.
54. Mesnil, B. 1993. Using Monte Carlo simulations to account for uncertainties in stock assessments and biological advice for fisheries management. Application to the northern stock of European hake. ICES CM D: 9. ICES, Copenhagen.
55. Mohn, R. 1991. Risk analysis of 4VsW cod. Can. Atl. Fish. Sci. Advis. Comm. Res. Doc. No. 91/40.
56. Mohn, R.K. 1993. Bootstrap estimates of ADAPT parameters, their projection in risk analysis and their retrospective patterns. In Risk evaluation and biological reference points for fisheries management. Edited by S.J. Smith, J.J. Hunt, and D. Rivard. Can. Spec. Publ. Fish. Aquat. Sci. No. 120. pp. 173-184.
57. Morgan, M.G., and Henrion, M. 1990. Uncertainty: a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
58. Morrissey, J.B. 1993. Biological reference points - some opening comments. In Risk evaluation and biological reference points for fisheries management. Edited by S.J. Smith, J.J. Hunt, and D. Rivard. Can. Spec. Publ. Fish. Aquat. Sci. No. 120. pp. 1-4.
59. Myers, R.A., Rosenberg, A.A., Mace, P.M., Barrowman, N., and Restrepo, V.R. 1994. In search of thresholds for recruitment fishing. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 51: 191-205.
60. Myers, R.A., Hutchings, J.A., and Barrowman, N.J. 1997. Why do fish stocks collapse? The example of cod in eastern Canada. Ecol. Appl. In press.
61. Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO). 1991. Special session on management under uncertainties. Northwest Atl. Fish. Organ. Sci. Counc. Stud. No. 16.
62. O'Boyle, R. 1993. Fisheries management organizations: a study in uncertainty. In Risk evaluation and biological reference points for fisheries management. Edited by S.J. Smith, J.J. Hunt, and D. Rivard. Can. Spec. Publ. Fish. Aquat. Sci. No. 120. pp. 423-436.
63. Parma, A.M. 1993. Retrospective catch-at-age analysis of Pacific halibut: implications on assessment of harvesting policies. In Proceedings of the International Symposium on Management Strategies for Exploited Fish Populations, Anchorage, Alaska, 21-24 October 1992. Edited by G. Kruse, D.M. Eggers, R.J. Marasco, C. Pautzke, and T.J. Quinn II. Alaska Sea Grant Coll. Program Rep. No. 93-02. University of Alaska, Fairbanks, pp. 247-265.
64. Parma, A.M., and Deriso, R.B. 1990. Experimental harvesting of cyclic stocks in the face of alternative recruitment hypotheses. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 47: 595-610.
65. Pearse, P.H., and Walters, C.J. 1992. Harvesting regulation under quota management systems for ocean fisheries. Mar. Pollut. 16: 167-182.
66. Peterson, S., and Smith, L.J. 1982. Risk reduction in fisheries management. Ocean Manage. 8: 65-79.
67. Plourde, C., and Bodell, R. 1984. Uncertainty in fisheries economics: the role of the discount rate. Mar. Resour. Econ. 1(2): 155-170
68. Polacheck, T.R, Hilborn, R., and Punt, A.E. 1993. Fitting surplus production models: comparing methods and measuring uncertainty. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 50: 2597-2607.
69. Powers, J.E., and Lackey, R.T. 1976. A multiattribute utility function for management of a recreational resource. Virg. J. Sci. 27(4): 191-198.
70. Powers, J.E., and Restrepo, V.R. 1993. Evaluation of stock assessment research for Gulf of Mexico king mackerel: benefits and costs to management. North Am. J. Fish. Manage. 13: 15-26.
71. Punt, A.E. 1993. The comparative performance of production-model and ad hoc tuned VPA based feedback-control management procedures for the stock of Cape hake off the west coast of South Africa. In Risk evaluation and biological reference points for fisheries management. Edited by S.J. Smith, J.J. Hunt, and D. Rivard. Can. Spec. Publ. Fish. Aquat. Sci. No. 120. pp. 283-299.
72. Punt, A.E. 1995. The performance of a production-model management procedure. Fish. Res. (Amsterdam), 21: 349-374.
73. Punt, A.E., and Butterworth, D.S. 1991. On an approach for comparing the implications of alternative fish stock assessments, with applications to the stock of Cape hake Merluccius spp. off northern Namibia. S. Afr. J. Mar. Sci. 10: 219-240.
74. Quinn, T.J., II, Fagen, R., and Zheng, J. 1990. Threshold management policies for exploited populations. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 47: 2016-2029.
75. Restrepo, V.R., and Rosenberg, A.A. 1994. Evaluating the performance of harvest control laws under uncertainty via simulation. Working Pap. No. 18. Meeting of January 1994, Miami, Fla. ICES Long-term Management Measures Working Group, Copenhagen.
76. Restrepo, V.R., Hoenig, J.M., Powers, J.E., Baird, J.W., and Turner, S.C. 1992. A simple simulation approach to risk and cost analysis, with applications to swordfish and cod fisheries. Fish. Bull. U.S. 90: 736-748.
77. Rice, J.C., and Richards, L.J. 1996. A framework for reducing implementation uncertainty in fisheries management. North Am. J. Fish. Manage. 16: 488-494.
78. Rosenberg, A.A., and Brault, S. 1993. Choosing a management strategy for stock rebuilding when control is uncertain. In Risk evaluation and biological reference points for fisheries management. Edited by S.J. Smith, J.J. Hunt, and D. Rivard. Can. Spec. Publ. Fish. Aquat. Sci. No. 120. pp. 243-249.
79. Rosenberg, A.A., and Restrepo, V.R.. 1993. The eloquent shrug: expressing uncertainty and risk in stock assessments. ICES CM D: 12. ICES, Copenhagen.
80. Rosenberg, A.A., and Restrepo, V.R., 1994. Uncertainty and risk evaluation in stock assessment advice for U.S. marine fisheries. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 51: 2715-2720.
81. Ruppert, D., Reish, R.L., Deriso, R.B., and Carroll, R.J. 1985. A stochastic population model for managing the Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus) fishery and assessing managerial risks. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 42: 1371-1379.
82. Schnute, J.T. 1991. The importance of noise in fish population models. Fish. Res. (Amsterdam), 11: 197-223.
83. Serchuk, F.M., and Grainger, R.J.R. 1992. Development of the basis and form of ICES fisheries management advice. ICES CM Assess: 20. ICES, Copenhagen.
84. Shotton, R. 1993. Risk, uncertainty and utility: a review of the use of these concepts in fisheries management. ICES CM D: 71. ICES, Copenhagen.
85. Shotton, R. 1994. Attitudes to risk relative to decisions on levels of fish harvest. ICES CM T: 54. ICES, Copenhagen.
86. Sigler, M.F. and Fujioka, J.T. 1993. A comparison of policies for harvesting sablefish, Anoplopoma fimbria, in the Gulf of Alaska. In Proceedings of the International Symposium on Management Strategies for Exploited Fish Populations, Anchorage, Alaska, 21-24 October 1992. Edited by G. Kruse, D.M. Eggers, R.J. Marasco, C. Pautzke, and T.J. Quinn II. Alaska Sea Grant Coll. Program Rep. No. 93-02. University of Alaska, Fairbanks, pp. 7-19.
87. Silvert, W. 1977. The economics of over-fishing. Trans. Am. Fish. Soc. 106(2): 121-130.
88. Sinclair, A., Gascon, D., O'Boyle, R., Rivard, D. and Gavaris, S. 1991. Consistency of some Northwest Atlantic groundfish stock assessments. Northwest Atl. Fish. Organ. Sci. Counc. Stud. No. 16. pp 59-77.
89. Smith, A.D.M. 1993. Risk assessment or management strategy evaluation: what do managers need and want? ICES CM D: 18. ICES, Copenhagen.
90. Smith, S.J. 1993. Risk evaluation and biological reference points for fisheries management: a review. In Proceedings of the International Symposium on Management Strategies for Exploited Fish Populations. Edited by G. Kruse, D.M. Eggers, R.J. Marasco, C. Pautzke, and T.J. Quinn II. Alaska Sea Grant Coll. Program Rep. No. 93-02, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, pp. 339-353.
91. Smith, S.J., Hunt, J.J., and Rivard, D. (Editors). 1993. Risk evaluation and biological reference points for fisheries management. Can. Spec. Publ. Fish. Aquat. Sci. No. 120.
92. Steinshamn, S.I. 1993. Management strategies: fixed and variable catch quotas. In Risk evaluation and biological reference points for fisheries management. Edited by S.J. Smith, J.J. Hunt, and D. Rivard. Can. Spec. Publ. Fish. Aquat. Sci. No. 120. pp. 373-385.
93. Stephenson, R.L., and Lane, D.E. 1995. Fisheries management science: a plea for conceptual change. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 52: 2051-2056.
94. Swartzman, G.L., Getz, W.M., and Francis, R.C. 1987. Binational management of Pacific hake (Merluccius productus): a stochastic modeling approach. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 44: 1053-1063.
95. Sylvia, G., and Enríquez, R.R. 1994. Multiobjective bioeconomic analysis: an application to the Pacific whiting fishery. Mar. Resour. Econ. 9: 311-328.
96. Thompson, G.G. 1993. A proposal for a threshold stock size and maximum fishing mortality rate. In Risk evaluation and biological reference points for fisheries management. Edited by S.J. Smith, J.J. Hunt, and D. Rivard. Can. Spec. Publ. Fish. Aquat. Sci. No. 120. pp. 303-320.
97. Walker, K.D., Rettig, R.B., and Hilborn, R. 1983. Analysis of multiple objectives in Oregon coho salmon policy. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 40: 580-587.
98. Walters, C. 1994. Use of gaming procedures in evaluation of management experiments. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 51: 2705-2714.
99. Walters, C., and Pearse, P.H. 1996. Stock information requirements for quota management systems in commercial fisheries. Rev. Fish Biol. Fish. 6: 21-42.
100. Welch, D.W., and Noakes, D.J. 1991. Optimal harvest rate policies for rebuilding the Adams River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka). Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 48(4): 526-535.