The stability of economic correlations over time: Identifying conditions under which survey tracking polls and twitter sentiment yield similar conclusions

Public Opinion Quarterly

Volumn 82, Issue 3, 2018, Pages 470-492

  Pasek, Josh ^a   Yan, H Yanna ^a   Conrad, Frederick G ^a   Newport, Frank ^b   Marken, Stephanie ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN   (United States)

^b Gallup Inc   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 85058133949     PISSN: 0033362X     EISSN: 15375331     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfy030     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Ansolabehere, Stephen D., and Brian F. Schaffner. 2014. "Does Survey Mode Still Matter? Findings from a 2010 Multi-Mode Comparison." Political Analysis 22:285-303.
2. Baker, Reg, Stephen J. Blumberg, J. Michael Brick, Mick P. Couper, Melanie Courtright, J. Michael Dennis, Don Dillman, Martin R. Frankel, Philip Garland, Robert M. Groves, Courtney Kennedy, Jon Krosnick, Paul J. Lavrakas, Sunghee Lee, Michael Link, Linda Piekarski, Kumar Rao, Randall K. Thomas, and Dan Zahs. 2010. "AAPOR Report on Online Panels." Public Opinion Quarterly 74:711-81.
3. Baker, Reg, J. Michael Brick, Nancy A. Bates, Mike Battaglia, Mick P. Couper, Jill A. Dever, Krista J. Gile, and Roger Tourangeau. 2013. "Summary Report of the AAPOR Task Force on Non-Probability Sampling." Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology 1:90-143.
4. Batchelor, Roy, and Pami Dua. 1998. "Improving Macro-Economic Forecasts." International Journal of Forecasting 14:71-81.
5. Bode, Leticia, Ceren Budak, Jonathan M. Ladd, Frank Newport, Josh Pasek, Lisa O. Singh, Stuart N. Soroka, and Michael W. Traugott. 2018. Words That Matter: How the News and Social Media Shaped the 2016 Presidential Election. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.
6. Bollen, Bernard, and Brett Inder. 2002. "Estimating Daily Volatility in Financial Markets Utilizing Intraday Data." Journal of Empirical Finance 9:551-62.
7. Bollen, Johan, Huina Mao, and Alberto Pepe. 2011. "Modeling Public Mood and Emotion: Twitter Sentiment and Socio-Economic Phenomena." Paper presented at the International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media, Barcelona, Spain, July 17-21, 11:450-53.
8. Carroll, Christopher D., Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, and David W. Wilcox. 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?" American Economic Review 84:1397-1408.
9. Conrad, Frederick G., Michael F. Schober, Josh Pasek, Lauren Guggenheim, Cliff Lampe, and E. Hou. 2015. A "Collective-vs-Self" Hypothesis for When Twitter and Survey Data Tell the Same Story. Paper presented at the Annual Conference of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Hollywood, FL.
10. Conway, Bethany A., Kate Kenski, and Di Wang. 2015. "The Rise of Twitter in the Political Campaign: Searching for Intermedia Agenda-Setting Effects in the Presidential Primary." Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication 20:363-80.
11. Couper, Mick P. 2013. "Is the Sky Falling? New Technology, Changing Media, and the Future of Surveys." Survey Research Methods 7:145-56.
12. De Boef, Suzanna, and Paul M. Kellstedt. 2004. "The Political (and Economic) Origins of Consumer Confidence." American Journal of Political Science 48:633-49.
13. Diaz, Fernando, Michael Gamon, Jake M. Hofman, Emre Kiciman, and David Rothschild. 2016. "Online and Social Media Data as an Imperfect Continuous Panel Survey." PLoS ONE 11:e0145406.
14. DiGrazia, Joseph, Karissa McKelvey, Johan Bollen, and Fabio Rojas. 2013. "More Tweets, More Votes: Social Media as a Quantitative Indicator of Political Behavior." PLoS ONE 8:e79449.
15. Fisher, Kenneth L., and Meir Statman. 2003. "Consumer Confidence and Stock Returns." Journal of Portfolio Management 30:115-27.
16. Gayo-Avello, Daniel. 2013. "A Meta-Analysis of State-of-the-Art Electoral Prediction from Twitter Data." Social Science Computer Review 31:649-79.
17. Gelman, Andrew, Sharad Goel, Douglas Rivers, and David Rothschild. 2016. "The Mythical Swing Voter." Quarterly Journal of Political Science 11:103-30.
18. Goidel, Kirby, Stephen Procopio, Dek Terrell, and H. Denis Wu. 2010. "Sources of Economic News and Economic Expectations." American Politics Research 38:759-77.
19. Grant, Taylor, and Matthew J. Lebo. 2016. "Error Correction Methods with Political Time Series." Political Analysis 24:3-30.
20. Greenwood, Shannon, Andrew Perrin, and Maeve Duggan. 2016. Social Media Update 2016. Washington, DC: Pew Research Center.
21. Guggenheim, Lauren, and Josh Pasek. 2013. "Binders Full of Tweets: Stimulus-Response Curves in Twitter Reactions to News Events." Paper presented at the 11th Annual American Political Science Association Preconference on Political Communication, Chicago, IL, USA.
22. Harrington, David E. 1989. "Economic News on Television: The Determinants of Coverage." Public Opinion Quarterly 53:17-40.
23. Iyengar, Shanto, and Adam Simon. 1993. "News Coverage of the Gulf Crisis and Public Opinion: A Study of Agenda-Setting, Priming, and Framing." Communication Research 20:365-83.
24. Jang, S. Mo, and Josh Pasek. 2015. "Assessing the Carrying Capacity of Twitter and Online News." Mass Communication and Society 18:577-98.
25. Japec, Lilli, Frauke Kreuter, Marcus Berg, Paul Biemer, Paul Decker, Cliff Lampe, Julia Lane, Cathy O'Neil, and Abe Usher. 2015. "Big Data in Survey Research AAPOR Task Force Report." Public Opinion Quarterly 79:839-80.
26. Kristoufek, Ladislav. 2014. "Measuring Correlations Between Non-Stationary Series with DCCA Coefficient." Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 402:291-98.
27. Kwak, Haewoon, Changhyun Lee, Hosung Park, and Sue Moon. 2010. "What Is Twitter, a Social Network or a News Media?" In Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on World Wide Web, Raleigh, NC, April 26-30, 591-600.
28. Langer Research Associates. 2013. Briefing Paper: Social Media and Public Opinion. http:// www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/Langer_Research_Briefing_Paper-Social_ Media_and_Public_Opinion.pdf.
29. MacKuen, Michael, Robert S. Erikson, and James Stimson. 1989. "Macropartisanship." American Political Science Review 83:1125-42.
30. Marwick, Alice E., and Danah boyd. 2011. "I Tweet Honestly, I Tweet Passionately: Twitter Users, Context Collapse, and the Imagined Audience." New Media & Society 13:114-33.
31. Matsusaka, John G., and Argia M. Sbordone. 1995. "Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations." Economic Inquiry 33:296-318.
32. Mercer, Andrew W., Frauke Kreuter, Scott Keeter, and Elizabeth A. Stuart. 2017. "Theory and Practice in Nonprobability Surveys: Parallels Between Causal Inference and Survey Inference." Public Opinion Quarterly 81:250-71.
33. Mutz, Diana C., and Joe Soss. 1997. "Reading Public Opinion: The Influence of News Coverage on Perceptions of Public Sentiment." Public Opinion Quarterly 61:431-51.
34. Neuman, W. Russell, Lauren Guggenheim, S. Mo Jang, and Soo Young Bae. 2014. "The Dynamics of Public Attention: Agenda-Setting Theory Meets Big Data." Journal of Communication 64:193-214.
35. Neyman, Jerzy. 1934. "On the Two Different Aspects of the Representative Method: The Method of Stratified Sampling and the Method of Purposive Selection." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 97:558-625.
36. O'Connor, Brendan, Ramnath Balasubramanyan, Bryan R. Routledge, and Noah A. Simon. 2010. "From Tweets to Polls: Linking Text Sentiment to Public Opinion Time Series." Paper presented at the International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media, George Washington University, Washington, DC, May 23-26, 11:122-29.
37. Page, Benjamin I., and Robert Y. Shapiro. 1992. The Rational Public. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
38. Pasek, Josh. 2016. "When Will Nonprobability Surveys Mirror Probability Surveys? Considering Types of Inference and Weighting Strategies as Criteria for Correspondence." International Journal of Public Opinion Research 28:269-91.
39. Pasek, Josh, and Jon A. Krosnick. 2010. Measuring Intent to Participate and Participation in the 2010 Census and Their Correlates and Trends: Comparisons of RDD Telephone and Nonprobability Sample Internet Survey Data. Research Report Series. Washington, DC: Statistical Research Division, U.S. Census Bureau.
40. Rogers, Everett M. 2003. Diffusion of Innovations, 5th ed. New York: Free Press.
41. Rogstad, Ingrid. 2016. "Is Twitter Just Rehashing? Intermedia Agenda Setting Between Twitter and Mainstream Media." Journal of Information Technology and Politics 13:142-58.
42. Schober, Michael F., Josh Pasek, Lauren Guggenheim, Cliff Lampe, and Frederick G. Conrad. 2016. "Social Media Analyses for Social Measurement." 80:180-211.
43. Schwert, G. William. 2012. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?" Journal of Finance 44:1115-53.
44. Soroka, Stuart N. 2006. "Good News and Bad News: Asymmetric Responses to Economic Information." Journal of Politics 68:372-85.
45. Soroka, Stuart N., Mark Daku, Dan Hiawshutter-Rice, Lauren Guggenheim, and Josh Pasek. 2017. "Negativity and Positivity Biases in Economic News Coverage: Traditional Versus Social Media." Communication Research 3. doi:10.1177/0093650217725870.
46. Soroka, Stuart N., Dominik A. Stecula, and Christopher Wlezien. 2015. "It's (Change in) the (Future) Economy, Stupid: Economic Indicators, the Media, and Public Opinion." American Journal of Political Science 59:457-74.
47. Soroka, Stuart N., and Christopher Wlezien. 2010. Degrees of Democracy. New York: Cambridge University Press.
48. Toubia, Olivier, and Andrew T. Stephen. 2013. "Intrinsic vs. Image-Related Utility in Social Media: Why Do People Contribute Content to Twitter?" Marketing Science 32:368-92.
49. Vargo, Chris J., and Lei Guo. 2016. "Networks, Big Data, and Intermedia Agenda Setting: An Analysis of Traditional, Partisan, and Emerging Online U.S. News." Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly 94:1031-55.
50. Wlezien, Christopher. 2005. "On the Salience of Political Issues: The Problem with 'Most Important Problem." Electoral Studies 24:555-79.
51. Wu, Shaomei, Chenhao Tan, Jon Kleinberg, and Michael Macy. 2011. "Does Bad News Go Away Faster?" Paper presented at the International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media, Barcelona, Spain, July 17-21, 1-4.
52. Zebende, Gillney Figueira. 2011. "DCCA Cross-Correlation Coefficient: Quantifying Level of Cross-Correlation." Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 390:614-18.
53. Zhao, Wayne Xin, Jing Jiang, Jianshu Weng, Jing He, Ee-Peng Lim, Hongfei Yan, and Xiaoming Li. 2011. "Comparing Twitter and Traditional Media Using Topic Models." In European Conference on Advances in Information Retrieval, 338-49. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer.