A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences

Volumn 376, Issue 2121, 2018, Pages

  Dawson, Richard J ^a   Thompson, David ^b   Johns, Daniel ^b   Wood, Ruth ^c   Darch, Geoff ^d   Chapman, Lee ^e   Hughes, Paul N ^f   Watson, Geoff V R ^g   Paulson, Kevin ^h   Bell, Sarah ⁱ   Gosling, Simon N ^j   Powrie, William ^g   Hall, Jim W ^k  

^a NEWCASTLE UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^b UK Health Alliance on Climate Change   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF MANCHESTER   (United Kingdom)

^d ANGLIAN WATER   (United Kingdom)

^e UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM   (United Kingdom)

^f DURHAM UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^g UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON   (United Kingdom)

^h UNIVERSITY OF HULL   (United Kingdom)

ⁱ UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^j UNIVERSITY OF NOTTINGHAM   (United Kingdom)

^k UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

more..

Author keywords

Climate change; Infrastructure; Interdependence; Risk assessment; Systems approach

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; ECONOMICS; FLOODS; GLOBAL WARMING; INVESTMENTS;

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION; ELECTRICITY INFRASTRUCTURE; ENERGY AND INFORMATION; INFRASTRUCTURE; INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES; INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEMS; INTERDEPENDENCE; SYSTEMS APPROACH;

RISK ASSESSMENT;

EID: 85042761218     PISSN: 1364503X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2017.0298     Document Type: Article

References (60)

1. Pitt M. 2008 The Pitt review: learning lessons from the 2007 floods. London, UK: Cabinet Office.
2. City of New York. 2014 PlaNYC: A stronger, more resilient New York. New York, USA. See http://www.nyc.gov/html/sirr/html/report/report.shtml.
3. Environment Agency 2016 The costs and impacts of the winter 2013 to 2014 floods: report. Bristol, UK: Environment Agency. See https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/thecosts-and-impacts-of-the-winter-2013-to-2014-floods.
4. Marsh T, Kirby C, Muchan K, Barker L, Henderson E, Hannaford J. 2016 The winter floods of 2015/2016 in the UK - a review. Wallingford, UK: NERC/Centre for Ecology & Hydrology. See http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/515303/
5. Chang SE, McDaniels TL, Mikawoz J, Peterson K. 2007 Infrastructure failure interdependencies in extreme events: power outage consequences in the 1998 Ice Storm. Nat. Hazards 41, 337–358. (doi:10.1007/s11069-006-9039-4)
6. Ziervogel G, New M, Archer van Garderen E, Midgley G, Taylor A, Hamann R, Stuart-Hill S, Myers J, Warburton M. 2014 Climate change impacts and adaptation in South Africa. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Change 5, 605–620. (doi:10.1002/wcc.295)
7. McEvoy D, Ahmed I, Mullett J. 2012 The impact of the 2009 heat wave on Melbourne’s critical infrastructure. Local Environ. 17, 783–796. (doi:10.1080/13549839.2012.678320)
8. IPCC 2013 Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds TF Stocker). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
9. Woetzel J, Garemo N, Mischke J, Hjerpe M, Palter R. 2016 Bridging global infrastructure gaps. San Francisco, CA: McKinsey Global Institute.
10. Treasury HM. 2015 National infrastructure plan 2014. London, UK: HM Treasury.
11. HR Wallingford, AMEC Environment & Infrastructure UK Ltd, The Met Office, Collingwood Environmental Planning, Alexander Ballard Ltd, Paul Watkiss Associates & Metroeconomica. 2012 The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2012 Evidence Report: Project deliverable number D.4.2.1, Release 8. London, UK: Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs. See https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-climate-change-riskassessment-government-report.
12. Committee on Climate Change 2016 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 synthesis report: priorities for the next five years. London, UK: Committee on Climate Change. See https://www.theccc.org.uk/tackling-climate-change/preparing-for-climate-change/uk-climate-changerisk-assessment-2017/
13. US Global Change Research Program 2014 National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: U.S. Global Change Research Program. See http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
14. Warren FJ, Lemmen DS. (eds). 2014 Canada in a changing climate: sector perspectives on impacts and adaptation. Ottawa, ON: Government of Canada. See http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/environment/resources/publications/impacts-adaptation/reports/assessments/2014/ 16309.
15. Vonk M, Bouwman A, van Dorland R, Eerens H. 2015 Worldwide climate effects: risks and opportunities for the Netherlands. The Hague, The Netherlands: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. See http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/worldwideclimate-effects-risks-and-opportunities-for-the-netherlands.
16. Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. 2014 Finland’s National Climate Change Adaptation Plan 2022. Helsinki, Finland: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. See https://ilmasto-opas.fi/en/etusivu.
17. Government of Australia. 2015 National Climate Resilience and Adaptation Strategy. Canberra, Australia: Government of Australia. See http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/adaptation/strategy.
18. Department of Environmental Affairs. 2016 Climate change trends, risks, impacts and vulnerabilities: South Africa’s 1st Annual Climate Change Report. Pretoria, South Africa: Department of Environmental Affairs. See https://www.environment.gov.za/otherdocuments/reports/monitoring_climatechange_responses.
19. Zebisch M, Grothmann T, Schröter D, Hasse C, Fritsch U, Cramer W. 2005 Climate change in Germany: vulnerability and adaptation of climate sensitive sectors. Dessau, Germany: Federal Environmental Agency. See http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/publikation/long/2974.pdf.
20. Dawson RJ et al. 2016 Infrastructure. In UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Evidence Report, Chapter 4. Report prepared for the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change.
21. Warren RF, Wilby RL, Brown K, Watkiss P, Betts RA, Murphy JM, Lowe JA. 2018 Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 376, 20170295. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2017.0295)
22. Humphrey K, Murphy J. 2016 Introduction. In UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Evidence Report, Chapter 1. Report prepared for the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change, London. https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/UKCCRA-2017-Chapter-1-Introduction.pdf.
23. Street R et al. 2016 Cross-cutting issues. In UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Evidence Report: chapter 8. Report prepared for the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change, London. https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/UKCCRA-2017-Chapter-8-Cross-cutting-issues.pdf.
24. Committee on Climate Change. 2016 Chapter review comments. London, UK: Committee on Climate Change. See https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/CCRAChapter-Review-Comments-locked.xls.
25. Committee on Climate Change. 2016 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017: Synthesis Report appendix: Urgency scoring tables. London, UK: Committee on Climate Change. See https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/UK-CCRA-2017-SynthesisReport-Appendix.pdf.
26. Andersson AK, Chapman L. 2011 The impact of climate change on winter road maintenance and traffic accidents in West Midlands, UK. Accid. Anal. Prev. 43, 284–289. (doi:10.1016/ j.aap.2010.08.025)
27. Sayers PB, Horritt M, Penning-Rowsell E, McKenzie A. 2015 Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017: projections of future flood risk in the UK. Research undertaken by Sayers and Partners on behalf of the Committee on Climate Change. London, UK: Committee on Climate Change. See https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/sayers-for-the-asc-projections-of-future-floodrisk-in-the-uk/.
28. van Leeuwen Z, Lamb R. 2014 Flood and scour related failure incidents at railway assets between 1846 and 2013. Skipton, UK: JBA Trust. See http://www.jbatrust.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/JBA-Trust-Flood-and-scour-failure-at-railway-assets-1846-to-2013-W13-4224FINAL.pdf.
29. HR Wallingford 2014 Indicators to assess the exposure of critical infrastructure in England to current and projected climate hazards. London, UK: Committee on Climate Change. See https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/5-MCR5195-RT003-R05-00.pdf.
30. Sutherland J, Wolf J. 2002 Coastal defence vulnerability 2075. Report SR 590. London, UK: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.
31. HR Wallingford, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, British Geological Survey, Amec Foster Wheeler 2015 CCRA2: Updated projections for water availability for the UK. Research undertaken by HR Wallingford et al. on behalf of the Committee on Climate Change. London, UK: Committee on Climate Change.
32. McColl L, Palin E, Thornton H, Sexton D, Betts R, Mylne K. 2012 Assessing the potential impact of climate change on the UK’s electricity network. Clim. Change 115, 821–835. (doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0469-6)
33. Adaptation Sub-Committee 2014 Managing Climate Risks to Well-being and the Economy. Committee on Climate Change, London, UK. See http://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Final_ASC-2014_web-version-4.pdf.
34. Glendinning S, Hughes PN, Helm P, Chambers J, Mendes J, Gunn D, Wilkinson P, Uhlemann S. 2014 Construction, management and maintenance of embankments used for road and rail infrastructure: implications of weather induced pore water pressures. Acta Geotech. 9, 799–816. (doi:10.1007/s11440-014-0324-1)
35. Muchan K, Lewis M, Hannaford J, Parry S. 2015 The winter storms of 2013/2014 in the UK: hydrological responses and impacts. Weather 70, 55–61. (doi:10.1002/wea.2469)
36. Jenkins K, Glenis V, Ford A, Hall J. 2012 A probabilistic risk-based approach to addressing impacts of climate change on cities: the Tyndall Centre’s Urban Integrated Assessment Framework. UGEC Viewp. 8, 8–11. See https://ugec.org/docs/ugec/viewpoints/ugecviewpoints-8.pdf.
37. Energy Networks Association 2011 Electricity Networks Climate Change Adaptation Report. London, UK: ENA.
38. Hu, X. 2015 Impacts of Climate Change on Power Systems, PhD Thesis, University of Manchester, UK. See http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.679994
39. Dawson RJ. 2015 Handling interdependencies in climate change risk assessment. Climate 3, 1079–1096. (doi:10.3390/cli3041079)
40. DEFRA 2013 Adapting to climate change: 2013 strategy for exercising the adaptation reporting power. London, UK: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. See https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/adapting-to-climate-change-2013-strategy-forexercising-the-adaptation-reporting-power.
41. Cabinet Office 2016 A summary of the 2016 Sector Security and Resilience Plans. London, UK: Cabinet Office. See https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sector-securityresilience-plan-2016.
42. Environment Agency 2013 Water use and electricity generation. Bristol, UK: Environment Agency.
43. Naughton M, Darton RC, Fung F. 2012 Could climate change limit water availability for coal-fired electricity generation with carbon capture and storage? A UK case study. Energy Environ. 23, 265–282. (doi:10.1260/0958-305X.23.2-3.265)
44. Byers E, Hall J, Amezaga J. 2014 Electricity generation and cooling water use: UK Pathways to 2050. Glob. Environ. Change 25, 16–30. (doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.01.005)
45. Byers EA, Hall JW, Amezaga JM, O’Donnell GM, Leathard A. 2016 Hydroclimatic impacts on thermoelectric power with carbon capture and storage. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 024011. (doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024011)
46. Pant R, Thacker S, Hall JW, Alderson D, Barr S. In press. Critical infrastructure impact assessment due to flood exposure. J. Flood Risk Manag. 11, 22–33. (doi:10.1111/jfr3.12288)
47. Buldyrev S, Parshani R, Paul G, Stanley H, Havlin S. 2010 Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks. Nature 464, 1025–1028. (doi:10.1038/nature08932)
48. Hill L. 2016 Flooding in York cuts off North East phone lines to police and hospitals. Chronicle, 28 December. See http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/flooding-yorkcuts-north-east-10658579.
49. Pant R, Hall JW, Blainey SP. 2016 Vulnerability assessment framework for interdependent critical infrastructures: case-study for Great Britain’s railway network. Eur. J. Transp. Infrastruct. Res. 16, 174–194.
50. Fu G, Dawson RJ, Khoury M, Bullock S. 2014 Interdependent networks: vulnerability analysis and strategies to limit cascading failure. Eur. Phys. J. B 87, 148. (doi:10.1140/epjb/ e2014-40876-y)
51. Postance B, Hillier J, Dijkstra T, Dixon N. 2017 Extending natural hazard impacts: an assessment of landslide disruptions on a national road transportation network. Environ. Res. Lett. 12, 014010. (doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa5555)
52. Affleck A, Gibbon J. 2016 Workington: a case study in coordination and communication. Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng-Munic. Eng. 169, 109–117. (doi:10.1680/jmuen.15.00004)
53. Pregnolato M, Ford A, Robson C, Glenis V, Barr S, Dawson RJ. 2016 Assessing urban strategies for reducing the impacts of extreme weather on infrastructure networks. R. Soc. open sci. 3, 160023. (doi:10.1098/rsos.160023)
54. Brown S, Dawson RJ. 2013 Disruption of resource movements from flooding. In Urban flood resilience (eds D Butler, AS Chen, S Djordjevic, MJ Hammond), pp. 125–126. Exeter, UK: Centre for Water Systems, University of Exeter.
55. Khoury M, Bullock S, Fu G, Dawson RJ. 2015 Improving measures of topological robustness in networks of networks and suggestion of a novel way to counter both failure propagation and isolation. J. Infrastruct. Complex. 2, 1–20. (doi:10.1186/s40551-015-0004-9)
56. Thacker S, Barr S, Pant R, Hall J, Alderson D. 2017 Geographic hotspots of critical national infrastructure. Risk Anal. 37, 2490–2505. (doi:10.1111/risa.12840)
57. Environment Agency. 2015 NaFRA Spatial Flood Likelihood Category Grid. See https://data.gov.uk/dataset/risk-of-flooding-from-rivers-and-sea1.
58. Kendon EJ, Roberts NM, Fowler HJ, Roberts MJ, Chan SC, Senior CA. 2014 Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 570–576. (doi:10.1038/nclimate2258)
59. Hughes PN, Glendinning S, Mendes J, Parkin G, Toll DG, Gallipoli D, Miller P. 2009 Full-scale testing to assess climate effects on embankments. Eng. Sust. Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng. 162, 67–79. (doi:10.1680/ensu.2009.162.2.67)
60. Hall JW, Tran M, Hickford AJ, Nicholls RJ. 2016 The future of national infrastructure: a system-of-systems approach. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.