메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 33, Issue 2, 2018, Pages 2219-2229

Variance Stabilizing Transformations for Electricity Spot Price Forecasting

Author keywords

Diebold mariano test; electricity spot price; forecasting; price spike; probability integral transform; variance stabilizing transformation

Indexed keywords

COMMERCE; COSTS; FORECASTING; INTEGRAL EQUATIONS; MATHEMATICAL TRANSFORMATIONS;

EID: 85028936777     PISSN: 08858950     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1109/TPWRS.2017.2734563     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (134)

References (39)
  • 1
    • 84911944822 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-theart with a look into the future
    • R. Weron, "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-theart with a look into the future, " Int. J. Forecasting, vol. 30, no. 4, pp. 1030-1081, 2014.
    • (2014) Int. J. Forecasting , vol.30 , Issue.4 , pp. 1030-1081
    • Weron, R.1
  • 2
    • 84905178508 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The forecasting performance of a finite mixture regime-switching model for daily electricity prices
    • D. Chen and D. Bunn, "The forecasting performance of a finite mixture regime-switching model for daily electricity prices, " J. Forecasting, vol. 33, no. 5, pp. 364-375, 2014.
    • (2014) J. Forecasting , vol.33 , Issue.5 , pp. 364-375
    • Chen, D.1    Bunn, D.2
  • 3
    • 76649124251 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Economic impact of electricity market price forecasting errors: A demand-side analysis
    • Feb.
    • H. Zareipour, C. A. Canizares, and K. Bhattacharya, "Economic impact of electricity market price forecasting errors: A demand-side analysis, " IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 254-262, Feb. 2010.
    • (2010) IEEE Trans. Power Syst. , vol.25 , Issue.1 , pp. 254-262
    • Zareipour, H.1    Canizares, C.A.2    Bhattacharya, K.3
  • 4
    • 84979517024 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Crystal ball lessons in predictive analytics
    • Spring
    • T. Hong, "Crystal ball lessons in predictive analytics, " EnergyBiz, pp. 35-37, Spring 2015.
    • (2015) EnergyBiz , pp. 35-37
    • Hong, T.1
  • 6
    • 33947308438 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods
    • Feb.
    • J. H. Zhao, Z. Y. Dong, X. Li, and K. P. Wong, "A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods, " IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 376-385, Feb. 2007.
    • (2007) IEEE Trans. Power Syst. , vol.22 , Issue.1 , pp. 376-385
    • Zhao, J.H.1    Dong, Z.Y.2    Li, X.3    Wong, K.P.4
  • 7
    • 84930374003 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Negative wholesale electricity prices in the German, French and Belgian day-ahead, intra-day and real-time markets
    • K. De Vos, "Negative wholesale electricity prices in the German, French and Belgian day-ahead, intra-day and real-time markets, " Elect. J., vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 36-50, 2015.
    • (2015) Elect. J. , vol.28 , Issue.4 , pp. 36-50
    • De Vos, K.1
  • 8
    • 84987617437 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prediction of extreme price occurrences in the German dayahead electricity market
    • L. Hagfors, H. Kamperud, F. Paraschiv, M. Prokopczuk, A. Sator, and S. Westgaard, "Prediction of extreme price occurrences in the german dayahead electricity market, " Quant. Finance, vol. 16, no. 12, pp. 1929-1948, 2016.
    • (2016) Quant. Finance , vol.16 , Issue.12 , pp. 1929-1948
    • Hagfors, L.1    Kamperud, H.2    Paraschiv, F.3    Prokopczuk, M.4    Sator, A.5    Westgaard, S.6
  • 10
    • 55349112144 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting spot electricity prices: A comparison of parametric and semiparametric time series models
    • R. Weron and A. Misiorek, "Forecasting spot electricity prices: A comparison of parametric and semiparametric time series models, " Int. J. Forecasting, vol. 24, pp. 744-763, 2008.
    • (2008) Int. J. Forecasting , vol.24 , pp. 744-763
    • Weron, R.1    Misiorek, A.2
  • 11
    • 77954834795 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A hybrid model for day-ahead price forecasting
    • Aug.
    • L. Wu and M. Shahidehpour, "A hybrid model for day-ahead price forecasting, " IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 1519-1530, Aug. 2010.
    • (2010) IEEE Trans. Power Syst. , vol.25 , Issue.3 , pp. 1519-1530
    • Wu, L.1    Shahidehpour, M.2
  • 12
    • 84856246145 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting power prices using a hybrid fundamental-econometric model
    • Feb.
    • V. Gonzalez, J. Contreras, and D. W. Bunn, "Forecasting power prices using a hybrid fundamental-econometric model, " IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 363-372, Feb. 2012.
    • (2012) IEEE Trans. Power Syst. , vol.27 , Issue.1 , pp. 363-372
    • Gonzalez, V.1    Contreras, J.2    Bunn, D.W.3
  • 13
    • 84899639063 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using neural networks and extreme value distributions to model electricity pool prices: Evidence from the Australian National Electricity Market 1998-2013
    • P. Dev and M. Martin, "Using neural networks and extreme value distributions to model electricity pool prices: Evidence from the Australian National Electricity Market 1998-2013, " Energy Convers. Manage., vol. 84, pp. 122-132, 2014.
    • (2014) Energy Convers. Manage. , vol.84 , pp. 122-132
    • Dev, P.1    Martin, M.2
  • 14
    • 84895059271 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pricing electricity derivatives within a Markov regimeswitching model: A risk premium approach
    • J. Janczura, "Pricing electricity derivatives within a Markov regimeswitching model: A risk premium approach, " Math. Methods Oper. Res., vol. 79, no. 1, pp. 1-30, 2014.
    • (2014) Math. Methods Oper. Res. , vol.79 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-30
    • Janczura, J.1
  • 15
    • 84948567854 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting electricity spot prices using time-series models with a double temporal segmentation
    • M. Bessec, J. Fouquau, and S. Meritet, "Forecasting electricity spot prices using time-series models with a double temporal segmentation, " Appl. Econ., vol. 48, no. 5, pp. 361-378, 2016.
    • (2016) Appl. Econ. , vol.48 , Issue.5 , pp. 361-378
    • Bessec, M.1    Fouquau, J.2    Meritet, S.3
  • 16
    • 84960172423 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global energy forecasting competition 2014 and beyond
    • T. Hong, P. Pinson, S. Fan, H. Zareipour, A. Troccoli, and R. J. Hyndman, "Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global energy forecasting competition 2014 and beyond, " Int. J. Forecasting, vol. 32, no. 3, pp. 896-913, 2016.
    • (2016) Int. J. Forecasting , vol.32 , Issue.3 , pp. 896-913
    • Hong, T.1    Pinson, P.2    Fan, S.3    Zareipour, H.4    Troccoli, A.5    Hyndman, R.J.6
  • 18
    • 0042526149 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • ARIMA models to predict next-day electricity prices
    • Aug.
    • J. Contreras, R. Espínola, F. Nogales, and A. Conejo, "ARIMA models to predict next-day electricity prices, " IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 1014-1020, Aug. 2003.
    • (2003) IEEE Trans. Power Syst. , vol.18 , Issue.3 , pp. 1014-1020
    • Contreras, J.1    Espínola, R.2    Nogales, F.3    Conejo, A.4
  • 19
    • 35449003134 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spot and derivative pricing in the EEX power market
    • M. Bierbrauer, C. Menn, S. T. Rachev, and S. Trück, "Spot and derivative pricing in the EEX power market, " J. Banking Finance, vol. 31, pp. 3462-3485, 2007.
    • (2007) J. Banking Finance , vol.31 , pp. 3462-3485
    • Bierbrauer, M.1    Menn, C.2    Rachev, S.T.3    Trück, S.4
  • 20
    • 84876797885 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Identifying spikes and seasonal components in electricity spot price data: A guide to robust modeling
    • J. Janczura, S. Trück, R. Weron, and R. Wolff, "Identifying spikes and seasonal components in electricity spot price data: A guide to robust modeling, " Energy Econ., vol. 38, pp. 96-110, 2013.
    • (2013) Energy Econ. , vol.38 , pp. 96-110
    • Janczura, J.1    Trück, S.2    Weron, R.3    Wolff, R.4
  • 21
    • 84880923235 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Power spot price models with negative prices
    • S. Schneider, "Power spot price models with negative prices, " J. Energy Markets, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 77-102, 2011.
    • (2011) J. Energy Markets , vol.4 , Issue.4 , pp. 77-102
    • Schneider, S.1
  • 22
    • 85042535697 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with highdimensional structures: Univariate vs.Multivariate models
    • to be published
    • F. Ziel and R. Weron, "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with highdimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate models, " Energy Econ., to be published.
    • Energy Econ.
    • Ziel, F.1    Weron, R.2
  • 24
    • 84982975808 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Automated variable selection and shrinkage for day-ahead electricity price forecasting
    • B. Uniejewski, J. Nowotarski, and R. Weron, "Automated variable selection and shrinkage for day-ahead electricity price forecasting, " Energies, vol. 9, no. 8, 2016, Art. no. 621.
    • (2016) Energies , vol.9 , Issue.8
    • Uniejewski, B.1    Nowotarski, J.2    Weron, R.3
  • 27
    • 55349123929 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting electricity prices: The impact of fundamentals and time-varying coefficients
    • N. Karakatsani and D. W. Bunn, "Forecasting electricity prices: The impact of fundamentals and time-varying coefficients, " Int. J. Forecasting, vol. 24, pp. 764-785, 2008.
    • (2008) Int. J. Forecasting , vol.24 , pp. 764-785
    • Karakatsani, N.1    Bunn, D.W.2
  • 28
    • 84957638403 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting electricity spot prices using LASSO: On capturing the autoregressive intraday structure
    • Nov.
    • F. Ziel, "Forecasting electricity spot prices using LASSO: On capturing the autoregressive intraday structure, " IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 31, no. 6, pp. 4977-4987, Nov. 2016.
    • (2016) IEEE Trans. Power Syst. , vol.31 , Issue.6 , pp. 4977-4987
    • Ziel, F.1
  • 31
    • 84871390883 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Neuralnet: Training of neural networks
    • F. Günther and S. Fritsch, "Neuralnet: Training of neural networks, " R J., vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 30-38, 2010.
    • (2010) R J. , vol.2 , Issue.1 , pp. 30-38
    • Günther, F.1    Fritsch, S.2
  • 33
    • 0000627958 scopus 로고
    • The box-cox transformation technique: A review
    • R. Sakia, "The box-cox transformation technique: A review, " Statistician, vol. 41, no. 2, pp. 169-178, 1992.
    • (1992) Statistician , vol.41 , Issue.2 , pp. 169-178
    • Sakia, R.1
  • 34
    • 33847399672 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness
    • T. Gneiting, F. Balabdaoui, and A. Raftery, "Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness, " J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B, vol. 69, pp. 243-268, 2007.
    • (2007) J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B , vol.69 , pp. 243-268
    • Gneiting, T.1    Balabdaoui, F.2    Raftery, A.3
  • 35
    • 85020812142 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: Areviewof probabilistic forecasting
    • J. Nowotarski and R. Weron, "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: Areviewof probabilistic forecasting, " Renewable Sustain. Energy Rev., 2017, doi: 10. 1016/j. rser. 2017. 05. 234.
    • (2017) Renewable Sustain. Energy Rev.
    • Nowotarski, J.1    Weron, R.2
  • 36
    • 0022470217 scopus 로고
    • Structural reliability under incomplete probability information
    • A. Der Kiureghian and P.-L. Liu, "Structural reliability under incomplete probability information, " J. Eng. Mech., vol. 112, no. 1, pp. 85-104, 1986.
    • (1986) J. Eng. Mech. , vol.112 , Issue.1 , pp. 85-104
    • Der Kiureghian, A.1    Liu, P.-L.2
  • 37
    • 84937697437 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A note on the normalization of Spanish electricity spot prices
    • May
    • G. Diaz and E. Planas, "A note on the normalization of Spanish electricity spot prices, " IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 31, no. 3, pp. 2499-2500, May 2016.
    • (2016) IEEE Trans. Power Syst. , vol.31 , Issue.3 , pp. 2499-2500
    • Diaz, G.1    Planas, E.2
  • 38
    • 84911867104 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An empirical comparison of alternate schemes for combining electricity spot price forecasts
    • J. Nowotarski, E. Raviv, S. Trück, and R. Weron, "An empirical comparison of alternate schemes for combining electricity spot price forecasts, " Energy Econ., vol. 46, pp. 395-412, 2014.
    • (2014) Energy Econ. , vol.46 , pp. 395-412
    • Nowotarski, J.1    Raviv, E.2    Trück, S.3    Weron, R.4
  • 39
    • 85008626049 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new feature selection technique for load and price forecast of electrical power systems
    • Jan.
    • O. Abedinia, N. Amjady, and H. Zareipour, "A new feature selection technique for load and price forecast of electrical power systems, " IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 32, no. 1, pp. 62-74, Jan. 2017.
    • (2017) IEEE Trans. Power Syst. , vol.32 , Issue.1 , pp. 62-74
    • Abedinia, O.1    Amjady, N.2    Zareipour, H.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.