Host outdoor exposure variability affects the transmission and spread of Zika virus: Insights for epidemic control

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases

Volumn 11, Issue 9, 2017, Pages

  Ajelli, Marco ^a,b   Moise, Imelda K ^c,d   Hutchings, Tricia Caroline S G ^c   Brown, Scott C ^d,e   Kumar, Naresh ^d   Johnson, Neil F ^c   Beier, John C ^d  

^a NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b FONDAZIONE BRUNO KESSLER   (Italy)

^c University of Miami   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI MILLER SCHOOL OF MEDICINE   (United States)

^e UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADULT; AGED; ARTICLE; COMPUTER MODEL; ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURE; EPIDEMIC; FEMALE; HEALTH SURVEY; HOST RANGE; HUMAN; INCIDENCE; INFECTION CONTROL; MALE; MOSQUITO; POPULATION DYNAMICS; QUESTIONNAIRE; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SIMULATION; URBAN AREA; VECTOR CONTROL; VIRAL CLEARANCE; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; ZIKA VIRUS; ADOLESCENT; AEDES; ANIMAL; COMPUTER SIMULATION; EPIDEMICS; FLORIDA; MIDDLE AGED; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; TIME FACTOR; TRANSMISSION; URBAN POPULATION; VERY ELDERLY; VIROLOGY; YOUNG ADULT; ZIKA FEVER;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AEDES; AGED; AGED, 80 AND OVER; ANIMALS; COMPUTER SIMULATION; ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURE; EPIDEMICS; FEMALE; FLORIDA; HUMANS; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS; SURVEYS AND QUESTIONNAIRES; TIME FACTORS; URBAN POPULATION; YOUNG ADULT; ZIKA VIRUS INFECTION;

EID: 85028856961     PISSN: 19352727     EISSN: 19352735     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005851     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. World Health Organization. Zika virus disease. Available from: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/zika/en/
2. Kraemer MUG, Sinka ME, Duda KA, Mylne AQ, Shearer FM, Barker CM, et al. The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. eLife. 2015;4:e08347. doi: 10.7554/eLife.08347 26126267
3. Messina JP, Kraemer MUG, Brady OJ, Pigott DM, Shearer FM, Weiss DJ, et al. Mapping global environmental suitability for Zika virus. eLife. 2016;5:e15272. doi: 10.7554/eLife.15272 27090089
4. Bogoch II, Brady OJ, Kraemer MUG, German M, Creatore MI, Kulkarni MA, et al. Anticipating the international spread of Zika virus from Brazil. Lancet. 2016;387(10016):335–6. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00080-5 26777915
5. Huff A, Allen T, Whiting K, Breit N, Arnold B, FLIRT-ing with Zika: A Web Application to Predict the Movement of Infected Travelers Validated Against the Current Zika Virus Epidemic. PLOS Curr Outbreaks. 2016. doi: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.711379ace737b7c04c89765342a9a8c9 27366587
6. Zhang Q, Sun K, Chinazzi M, Pastore y Piontti A, Dean NE, Rojas DP, et al. Spread of Zika virus in the Americas. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2017;114(22):E4334–43. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1620161114 28442561
7. Sheppard PM, Macdonald WW, Tonn RJ, Grab B, The Dynamics of an Adult Population of Aedes aegypti in Relation to Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever in Bangkok. J Anim Ecol. 1969;38(3):661–702.
8. Griffin JT, Hollingsworth TD, Okell LC, Churcher TS, White M, Hinsley W, et al. Reducing Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Transmission in Africa: A Model-Based Evaluation of Intervention Strategies. PLOS Med. 2010;7(8):e1000324. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000324 20711482
9. Salje H, Cauchemez S, Alera MT, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Thaisomboonsuk B, Srikiatkhachorn A, et al. Reconstruction of 60 Years of Chikungunya Epidemiology in the Philippines Demonstrates Episodic and Focal Transmission. J Infect Dis. 2016;213(4):604–10. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiv470 26410592
10. Moreno-Madriñán MJ, Turell M, Factors of Concern Regarding Zika and Other Aedes aegypti-Transmitted Viruses in the United States. J Med Entomol. 2017;tjw212.
11. Mabaso MLH, Sharp B, Lengeler C, Historical review of malarial control in southern African with emphasis on the use of indoor residual house-spraying. Trop Med Int Health. 2004;9(8):846–56. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3156.2004.01263.x 15303988
12. Salje H, Lessler J, Paul KK, Azman AS, Rahman MW, Rahman M, et al. How social structures, space, and behaviors shape the spread of infectious diseases using chikungunya as a case study. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2016;113(47):13420–5. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1611391113 27821727
13. Likos A, Griffin I, Bingham AM, Stanek D, Fisher M, White S, et al. Local Mosquito-Borne Transmission of Zika Virus—Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, Florida, June–August 2016. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep2016:65(38):1032–1038. doi: 10.15585/mmwr.mm6538e1 27684886
14. Klepeis NE, Nelson WC, Ott WR, Robinson JP, Tsang AM, Switzer P, et al. The National Human Activity Pattern Survey (NHAPS): a resource for assessing exposure to environmental pollutants. J Expo Anal Environ Epidemiol. 2001;11(3):231–52. doi: 10.1038/sj.jea.7500165 11477521
15. Diffey BL, An overview analysis of the time people spend outdoors. Br J Dermatol. 2011;164(4):848–54. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2133.2010.10165.x 21128911
16. Ferguson NM, Cucunubá ZM, Dorigatti I, Nedjati-Gilani GL, Donnelly CA, Basáñez M-G, et al. Countering Zika in Latin America. Science. 2016;353(6297):353–354. doi: 10.1126/science.aag0219 27417493
17. Kucharski AJ, Funk S, Eggo RM, Mallet H-P, Edmunds WJ, Nilles EJ, Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus in Island Populations: A Modelling Analysis of the 2013–14 French Polynesia Outbreak. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2016;10(5):e0004726. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004726 27186984
18. Nishiura H, Mizumoto K, Villamil-Gómez WE, Rodríguez-Morales AJ, Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of Zika virus infection during Colombia epidemic, 2015–2016. Travel Med Infect Dis. 2016;14(3):274–6. doi: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2016.03.016 27060613
19. Chowell G, Hincapie-Palacio D, Ospina J, Pell B, Tariq A, Dahal S, et al. Using Phenomenological Models to Characterize Transmissibility and Forecast Patterns and Final Burden of Zika Epidemics. PLOS Curr Outbreaks. 2016. doi: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.f14b2217c902f453d9320a43a35b9583 27366586
20. Grubaugh ND, Ladner JT, Kraemer MUG, Dudas G, Tan AL, Gangavarapu K, et al. Genomic epidemiology reveals multiple introductions of Zika virus into the United States. Nature. 2017; 546:401–405. doi: 10.1038/nature22400 28538723
21. Reiter P, Amador MA, Anderson RA, Clark GG, Short Report: Dispersal of Aedes aegypti in an Urban Area after Blood Feeding as Demonstrated by Rubidium-Marked Eggs. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1995;52(2):177–9. 7872449
22. Simard F, Nchoutpouen E, Toto JC, Fontenille D, Geographic Distribution and Breeding Site Preference of Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in Cameroon, Central Africa. J Med Entomol. 2005;42(5):726–31. 16363155
23. Focks DA, Haile DG, Daniels E, Mount GA, Dynamic life table model for Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae): analysis of the literature and model development. J Med Entomol. 1993;30(6):1003–17. 8271242
24. Zhu L, Qualls WA, Marshall JM, Arheart KL, DeAngelis DL, McManus JW, et al. A spatial individual-based model predicting a great impact of copious sugar sources and resting sites on survival of Anopheles gambiae and malaria parasite transmission. Malar J. 2015;14:59. doi: 10.1186/s12936-015-0555-0 25652678
25. Barabási A-L, The origin of bursts and heavy tails in human dynamics. Nature. 2005;435(7039):207–11. doi: 10.1038/nature03459 15889093
26. Gilks WR, Richardson S, Spiegelhalter D, Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice. CRC Press. 1995.
27. Anderson RM, May RM, Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control. Oxford University Press; 1992.
28. Poletti P, Messeri G, Ajelli M, Vallorani R, Rizzo C, Merler S, Transmission Potential of Chikungunya Virus and Control Measures: The Case of Italy. PLOS ONE. 2011;6(5):e18860. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0018860 21559329
29. Ferguson NM, Cummings DAT, Fraser C, Cajka JC, Cooley PC, Burke DS, Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature. 2006;442(7101):448–52. doi: 10.1038/nature04795 16642006
30. Germann TC, Kadau K, Longini IM, Macken CA, Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006;103(15):5935–40. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0601266103 16585506
31. Ajelli M, Merler S, The Impact of the Unstructured Contacts Component in Influenza Pandemic Modeling. PLOS ONE. 2008;3(1):e1519. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0001519 22423310
32. Merler S, Ajelli M, Fumanelli L, Vespignani A, Containing the accidental laboratory escape of potential pandemic influenza viruses. BMC Med. 2013;11:252. doi: 10.1186/1741-7015-11-252 24283203
33. Muir LE, Kay BH, Aedes aegypti survival and dispersal estimated by mark-release-recapture in northern Australia. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1998;58(3):277–82. 9546403
34. Reiter P, Oviposition, Dispersal, and Survival in Aedes aegypti: Implications for the Efficacy of Control Strategies. Vector-Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2007;7(2):261–73. doi: 10.1089/vbz.2006.0630 17627447
35. Yang HM, Macoris MLG, Galvani KC, Andrighetti MTM, Wanderley DMV, Assessing the effects of temperature on the population of Aedes aegypti, the vector of dengue. Epidemiol Infect. 2009;137(8):1188–202. doi: 10.1017/S0950268809002040 19192322
36. Lambrechts L, Paaijmans KP, Fansiri T, Carrington LB, Kramer LD, Thomas MB, et al. Impact of daily temperature fluctuations on dengue virus transmission by Aedes aegypti. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2011;108(18):7460–5. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1101377108 21502510
37. Barrera R, Acevedo V, Felix GE, Hemme RR, Vazquez J, Munoz JL, et al. Impact of Autocidal Gravid Ovitraps on Chikungunya Virus Incidence in Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in Areas With and Without Traps. J Med Entomol. 2017;54(2):387–95. doi: 10.1093/jme/tjw187 28031347
38. Lloyd AL, Zhang J, Root AM, Stochasticity and heterogeneity in host-vector models. J R Soc Interface. 2007;4(16):851–63. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2007.1064 17580290
39. Min B, Goh K-I, Vazquez A, Spreading dynamics following bursty human activity patterns. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2011;83:036102. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.83.036102 21517553
40. Vazquez A, Holme P, Saramäki J, Spreading Dynamics Following Bursty Activity Patterns. In: Temporal Networks. SpringerBerlin Heidelberg; 2013.
41. Woolhouse MEJ, Dye C, Etard J-F, Smith T, Charlwood JD, Garnett GP, et al. Heterogeneities in the transmission of infectious agents: Implications for the design of control programs. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 1997;94(1):338–42. 8990210
42. Mammem MP, JrPimgate C, Koenraadt CJM, Rothman AL, Aldstadt J, Nisalak A, et al. Spatial and Temporal Clustering of Dengue Virus Transmission in Thai Villages. PLOS Med. 2008;5(11):e205. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0050205 18986209
43. Yoon I-K, Getis A, Aldstadt J, Rothman AL, Tannitisupawong D, Koenraadt CJM, et al. Fine Scale Spatiotemporal Clustering of Dengue Virus Transmission in Children and Aedes aegypti in Rural Thai Villages. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2012;6(7):e1730. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001730 22816001
44. Reiter P, Lathrop S, Bunning M, Biggerstaff B, Singer D, Tiwari T, et al. Texas lifestyle limits transmission of dengue virus. Emerg Infect Dis. 2003;9(1):86–9. doi: 10.3201/eid0901.020220 12533286
45. Moore KJ, Qualls W, Brennan V, Yang X, Caban-Martinez AJ, Mosquito Control Practices and Zika Knowledge Among Outdoor Construction Workers in Miami-Dade County, Florida. J Occup Environ Med. 2017;59(3):e17–9. doi: 10.1097/JOM.0000000000000960 28267109
46. Florida Department of Health. Mosquito-Borne Disease Surveillance. Available from: http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/mosquito-borne-diseases/surveillance.html
47. Chadee DD, Martinez R, Landing periodicity of Aedes aegypti with implications for dengue transmission in Trinidad, West Indies. J Vector Ecol J Soc Vector Ecol. 2000;25(2):158–63.
48. Scott TW, Amerasinghe PH, Morrison AC, Lorenz LH, Clark GG, Strickman D, et al. Longitudinal studies of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in Thailand and Puerto Rico: blood feeding frequency. J Med Entomol. 2000;37(1):89–101. 15218911
49. Duffy MR, Chen T-H, Hancock WT, Powers AM, Kool JL, Lanciotti RS, et al. Zika virus outbreak on Yap Island, Federated States of Micronesia. N Engl J Med. 2009;360(24):2536–43. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa0805715 19516034