Impact of climate change on the aral sea and its basin

The Aral Sea: The Devastation and Partial Rehabilitation of a Great Lake

Volumn , Issue , 2014, Pages 405-427

  Lioubimtseva, Elena ^a  

^a GRAND VALLEY STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Adaptations; Aral sea; Arid environments; Climate change; Climate variability; Human vulnerability; Land use

Indexed keywords

EID: 85028524945     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-02356-9_17     Document Type: Chapter

References (69)

1. Abdikarimov ST (2001) Current epidemiological malaria situation in Kyrgyzstan (1995-1999). Medizinskaya Parazitologia 1:33-40
2. Adger WN (2006) Vulnerability. Glob Environ Chang 16(3):268-281
3. Akiner S (2000) Central Asia: a survey of the region and the five republics. UNHCR Centre for Documentation and Research, WRITENET Paper No.22/1999, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva, p 50
4. Aladin N, Crétaux J-F, Plotnikov IS, Kouraev AV, Smurov AO, Cazenave A, Egorov AN, Papa F (2005) Modern hydro-biological state of the Small Aral sea. Environmetrics 16(18):375-392
5. Alcamo J, Henrichs T (2002) Critical regions: a model-based estimation of world water resources sensitive to global changes. Aquat Sci 64:352-362
6. AQUASTAT (2011) Food and agriculture organization. http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/main/index.stm. Accessed Dec 2011
7. Arnell NW (2004) Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socioeconomic scenarios. Glob Environ Chang 14:31-52
8. Boomer I, Aladin N, Plotnikov I, Whatley R (2000) The palaeolimnology of the Aral Sea: a review. Quat Sci Rev 19(13):1259-1278
9. Boroffka N, Oberhänsli H, Sorrel P, Demory F et al (2006) Archaeology and climate: settlement and lake-level changes at the Aral Sea. Geoarcheology 21(7):721-734
10. Braithwaite RJ (2002) Glacier mass balance: the first 50 years of international monitoring. Progress in Physical Geography 26:76-95
11. Chub VE (2000) Climate change and its impact on the natural resources potential of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Gimet, Tashkent (in Russian)
12. Chuluun T, Ojima D (2002) Land use change and carbon cycle in arid and semi-arid lands of East and Central Asia. Sci China (Series C) 45:44-54
13. Confalonieri U, Menne B, Akhtar R, Ebi KL et al (2007) Human health. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 391-431
14. de Beurs KM, Henebry GM (2004) Land surface phenology, climatic variation, and institutional change: analyzing agricultural land cover change in Kazakhstan. Remote Sens Environ 89(4):497-509
15. de Sherbinin A (2002) A guide to land-use and land-cover change (LUCC). A CIESIN thematic guide. Center for International Earth Science Information Network of Columbia University, Palisades. http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/tg/guide_main.jsp
16. Elpiner LI (2003) A scenario of possible effect of changes in the hydrological conditions on the medical and environmental situation: on the problem of global hydroclimatic changes. Water Resour 30(4):434-444
17. Esper J, Schweingruber FH, Winiger M (2002) 1300 years of climatic history for Western Central Asia inferred from tree-rings. The Holocene 12(3):267-277
18. Fischer G, Shah M, Tubiello FN, van Velhuizen H (2005) Socioeconomic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080. Phil Trans Royal Soc B 360:2067-2073
19. Glantz MH (2005) Water, climate, and development issues in the Amu Darya basin. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Chang 10(1):1381-2386
20. Glazovsky NF (1995) The Aral Sea basin. In: Kasperson JX, Kasperson RE, Turner BL II (eds) Regions at risk: comparisons of threatened environments. United Nations University Press, Tokyo/New York/Paris, on-line edition
21. IPCC (2001) Climate change: the scientific basis contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs M) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
22. IPCC, WGI (2007) In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New York
23. IPCC, WGII (2007) In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New
24. York Kariyeva J, van Leewuven W (2011) Environmental drivers of NDVI-based vegetation phenology in Central Asia. Remote Sens 3(2):203-246. doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs3020203:10.3390/rs3020203
25. Kayumov AK, Mahmadaliev BU (2002) Climate change and its impacts on climate change. Avesto, Dushanbe (in Russian)
26. Kes AS, Mamedov ED, Khondkaryan SO, Trofimov GN et al (1993) Plains of northern central Asia during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene: stratigraphy and palaeogeography. In: Velichko AA (ed) Evolution of landscapes and climates of Northern Eurasia. Nauka, Moscow, pp 82-87 (in Russian)
27. Kovats RS, Campbell-Lendrum DH, McMichael AJ, Woodward A et al (2001) Early effects of climate change: do they include changes in vector-borne disease? Philos Trans R Soc 356:1057-1068
28. Lioubimtseva E (2003) Arid Environments. In: Shahgedanova M (ed) Physical geography of Northern Eurasia. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 267-283
29. Lioubimtseva E et al (2005) Environmental changes in arid Central Asia inferred from remote sensing data and ground observations. Arid Ecosyst 11(26-27):64-72
30. Lioubimtseva E (2007) Possible changes in the carbon budget of arid and semi-arid Central Asia inferred from land-use/landcover analyses during 1981-2001. In: Lal R, Suleimenov M, Stewart BA, Hansen DO et al (eds) Climate change and terrestrial carbon sequestration in Central Asia. Taylor & Francis, London, pp 441-452
31. Lioubimtseva E, Cole R (2006) Uncertainties of climate change in Arid environments of Central Asia. Rev Fish Sci 14(1-2):29-49
32. Lioubimtseva E, Henebry GM (2009) Climate and environmental change in arid Central Asia: impacts, vulnerability, and adaptations. J Arid Environ 73:963-977
33. Lioubimtseva E, Simon B, Faure H, Faure-Denard L et al (1998) Impacts of climatic change on carbon storage in the Sahara-Gobi desert belt since the Late Glacial Maximum. Global Planet Change 16-17:95-105
34. Lioubimtseva E, Cole R, Adams JM, Kapustin G (2005) Impacts of climate and land-cover changes in arid lands of Central Asia. J Arid Environ 62(2):285-308
35. Martens P, Kovats RS, Nijhof S, de Vries P et al (1999) Climate change and future population at risk of malaria. Glob Environ Chang 9:S89-S107
36. Meleshko VP (2004) Anthropogenic climate changes in Northern Eurasia in the 21st century. Russ Meteorol Hydrol J 7:5-26 (in Russian)
37. Merzlyakova I (2000) The mountains of Central Asia and Kazakhstan. In: Shahgedanova M (ed) The physical geography of Northern Eurasia. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 377-402
38. Micklin P (1988) Dessication of the Aral Sea: a water management disaster in the Soviet Union. Science 241:1170-1176
39. Micklin P (2007) The Aral Sea disaster. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 35:47-72. doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.earth.35.031306.140120:10.1146/annurev.earth.35.031306.140120
40. Micklin P, Aladin NV (2008) Reclaiming the Aral Sea. Scientific American, pp 64-71
41. Micklin P (2010) The past, present, and future Aral Sea. Lakes Reserv Res Manag 15:193-213
42. Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, de Vries B et al (2000) IPCC special report on emissions scenarios, IPCC special reports. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
43. Neronov VV (1997) Landscape features of secular changes in wetting of southeastern Turkmenistan. Arid Ecosys 3(6-7):141-150 (in Russian with summary in English)
44. Oerlemans J (1994) Quantifying global warming from the retreat of glaciers. Science, pp 243-245
45. Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, Van der Linden PJ et al (eds) (2007) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptations and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
46. Pielke RA Sr, Adegoke J, Beltran-Przeukurat A, Hiemstra C et al (2007) An overview of regional land-use and land-cover impacts on rainfall. Tellus. doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2007.00251.x:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2007.00251.x
47. Polsky C, Neff R, Yarnal B (2007) Building comparable global change assessments: the vulnerability scoping diagram. Glob Environ Chang 17(3-4):472-485
48. Razakov SA, Shakhgunova GS (2001) Current malaria situation in the Republic of Uzbekistan. Medizinskaya Parazitologia 1:39-41 (in Russian)
49. Sabatinelli G (2000) The malaria situation in the WHO European region. Medizinskaya Parazitologia 2:4-8
50. Schröter D, Polsky C, Patt AG (2005) Assessing vulnerability to the effects of global climate change: an eight step approach. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Chang 10:573-596
51. Semenov OE (1990) Assessment of sand and salt re-deposition from the dry part of the Aral Sea lake-bed. In: Chichasov GN (ed) Hydrometeorological problems of the Aral Sea area. Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, pp 200-215 (in Russian)
52. Shibuo Y, Jarsjo J, Destouni G (2007) Hydrological responses to climate change and irrigation in the Aral Sea drainage basin. Geophys Res Lett 34:L21406. doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031465:10.1029/2007GL031465
53. Shiklomanov IA, Rodda JC (eds) (2001) World water resources at the beginning of the twenty-first century. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
54. Sievers EW (2003) The post-Soviet decline of Central Asia: sustainable development and comprehensive capital. Taylor & Francis, London/New York
55. Small EE, Sloan LC, Hostetler S, Giorgi F (1999) Simulating the water balance of the Aral Sea with a coupled regional climate-lake model. J Geophys Res 104(D6):6583-6602
56. Small EE, Giorgi F, Sloan LC, Hostetler S (2001) The Effects of Desiccation and Climatic Change on the Hydrology of the Aral Sea. The Journal of Climate 14(3):300-322
57. Smit B, Skinner MW (2002) Adaptation options to climate change: a typology. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Chang 7:85-114
58. Sorrel P, Popescu SM, Klotz S, Suc JP et al (2007) Climate variability in the Aral Sea Basin (Central Asia) during the late Holocene based on vegetation changes. Quatern Res 67:357-370
59. Tarasov P, Williams JW, Andreev A, Nakagawa T et al (2007) Satellite and pollen-based quantitative woody cover reconstructions for northern Asia: verification and application to late-Quaternary pollen data. Earth Planet Sci Lett 264(1-2):284-298
60. Tebaldi C, Hayhoe K, Arblaster JM, Meehl GA (2006) Going to the extremes: an intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events. Clim Change 79:185-211
61. Thompson LG, Mosley-Thompson E, Davisa M, Lin PN, Yao T, Dyurgerov M, Dai J (1993) “Recent warming”: ice core evidence from tropical ice cores with emphasis on Central Asia. Glob Pl Change 7(1-3):145-156
62. Tucker CJ, Newcomb WW, Los SO, Prince SD (1991) Mean and inter-year variation of growing-season normalized difference vegetation index for the Sahel 1981-1989. Int J Remote Sens 12:1113-1115
63. Van Lieshout M, Kovats RS, Livermore MTJ, Martens P (2004) Climate change and malaria: analysis of the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Chang 14:87-99
64. Varuschenko SI, Varuschenko AN, Klige RK (1987) Variations of the Caspian sea regime and of terminal lakes in paleotimes. Nauka, Moscow, p 239 (in Russian)
65. Vinogradov AV, Mamedov ED (1991) The Aral Sea in the Holocene. In: Andrianov BV, Glazovskiy NF, Levina LM, Timoshuk LA (eds) The Aral crisis. USSR Academy of Sciences, Moscow, pp 66-75 (in Russian)
66. Wang G, Eltahir EAB (2000) Biosphere-atmosphere interactions over West Africa. II: multiple climate equilibria. Q J Roy Meteorol Soc 126:1261-1280
67. WHO (2011) World Health Organization office for Europe on-line databases. http://www.euro.who.int/hfadb. Accessed Dec 2011
68. Wigley TML (2008) MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3: USER MANUAL (version 2). NCAR, Boulder, Sep 2008. http://ncar.ucar.edu/
69. World Health Statistics (2011) Computerized information system for infectious diseases (CISID). http://data.euro.who.int/cisid/. Accessed Dec 2011