The impact of urbanization on carbon emissions in developing countries: a Chinese study based on the U-Kaya method

Journal of Cleaner Production

Volumn 135, Issue , 2016, Pages 589-603

  Wu, Yuzhe ^a   Shen, Jiahui ^a   Zhang, Xiaoling ^b   Skitmore, Martin ^c   Lu, Wisheng ^d  

^a ZHEJIANG UNIVERSITY   (China)

^b CITY UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG   (Hong Kong)

^c QUEENSLAND UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Australia)

^d UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG   (Hong Kong)

Author keywords

Carbon emissions; Forecasting; U Kaya identity; Urbanization

Indexed keywords

CARBON DIOXIDE; COMMERCE; DEVELOPING COUNTRIES; ENERGY UTILIZATION; FORECASTING; INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS; MONTE CARLO METHODS; POPULATION STATISTICS; PUBLIC POLICY; RURAL AREAS;

CARBON EMISSIONS; DYNAMIC FORECASTING; ENERGY CONSUMPTION INTENSITY; POLICY IMPLICATIONS; POPULATION GROWTH; TECHNICAL INNOVATION; URBAN AND RURAL AREAS; URBANIZATION;

URBAN GROWTH;

EID: 85027924127     PISSN: 09596526     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.06.121     Document Type: Article

References (76)

1. Al-mulali, U., Sab, C.N.B.C., Fereidouni, H.G., Exploring the bi-directional long run relationship between urbanization, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emission. Energy 46:1 (2012), 156–167.
2. Alcott, B., Impact caps: why population, affluence and technology strategies should be abandoned. J. Clean. Prod. 18:6 (2010), 552–560.
3. Alwan, Z., Jones, P., Holgate, P., Strategic sustainable development in the UK construction industry, through the framework for strategic sustainable development, using building information modelling. J. Clean. Prod., 2016, 10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.12.085.
4. Ang, B.W., Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy: which is the preferred method?. Energy Policy 32:9 (2004), 1131–1139.
5. Baochang, G., Feng, W., Zhigang, G., Erli, Z., China's local and national fertility policies at the end of the twentieth century. Popul. Dev. Rev., 2007, 129–147.
6. Bhattacharya, M., Paramati, S.R., Ozturk, I., Bhattacharya, S., The effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth: evidence from top 38 countries. Appl. Energy 162 (2016), 733–741.
7. Caprotti, F., Romanowicz, J., Thermal eco-cities: green building and urban thermal metabolism. Int. J. Urban Reg. Res. 37:6 (2013), 1949–1967.
8. Chikaraishi, M., Fujiwara, A., Kaneko, S., Poumanyvong, P., Komatsu, S., Kalugin, A., The moderating effects of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions: a latent class modeling approach. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 90 (2015), 302–317.
9. Cole, M.A., Neumayer, E., Examining the impact of demographic factors on air pollution. Popul. Environ. 26:1 (2004), 5–21.
10. 2 emissions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 94:1 (1997), 175–179.
11. Ehrlich, P.R., Ehrlich, A.H., Population, Resources, Environment: Issues in Human Ecology. 1970, WH Freeman, San Francisco, 383.
12. Energy Department, National Bureau of Statistic, Chinese Energy Statistical Yearbook 2011. 2011, China Statistics Press, Beijing (in Chinese, 中国能源统计年鉴).
13. Galeotti, M., Lanza, A., Richer and cleaner? a study on carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries. Energy Policy 27:10 (1999), 565–573.
14. Grossman, G.M., Krueger, A.B., Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement. (No. w3914), 1991, National Bureau of Economic Research.
15. Hao, H., Geng, Y., Wang, H., Ouyang, M., Regional disparity of urban passenger transport associated GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in China: a review. Energy 68 (2014), 783–793.
16. He, Y., Impacts and countermeasures on life insurance industry from population structure change. Insur. Stud. 9 (2011), I0004–I0006 (in Chinese, 中国人口格局变化对寿险业发展的影响及应对).
17. Hirokawa, K.H., Pohrib, A.M., The Role of Green Building in Climate Change Adaptation. 2012, Social Science Electronic Publishing.
18. He, X., Liu, X., Lin, Y., China's electricity demand forecast under urbanization process. Econ. Res. J. 1:44 (2009), 118–130 (in Chinese, 中国城市化进程中的电力需求预测).
19. 2 content. Nature 395:6705 (1998), 881–884.
20. Ho, C.S., Matsuoka, Y., Simson, J., Gomi, K., Low carbon urban development strategy in Malaysia–the case of Iskandar Malaysia development corridor. Habitat Int. 37 (2013), 43–51.
21. Hui, E.C., Bao, H., The logic behind conflicts in land acquisitions in contemporary China: a framework based upon game theory. Land Use Policy 30:1 (2013), 373–380.
22. Jian, X., Huang, K.,.Empirical analysis and forecast of the level and speed of urbanization in China. Econ. Res. J. 3 (2010), 28–38 (in Chinese, 中国城镇化水平和速度的实证分析与前景预测).
23. Jones, B.G., Koné, S., An exploration of relationships between urbanization and per capita income: United States and countries of the world. Pap. Reg. Sci. 75:2 (1996), 135–153.
24. Kamat, P.V., Meeting the clean energy demand: nanostructure architectures for solar energy conversion. J. Phys. Chem. C 111:7 (2007), 2834–2860.
25. Khalili, N.R., Duecker, S., Ashton, W., Chavez, F., From cleaner production to sustainable development: the role of academia. J. Clean. Prod. 96 (2015), 30–43.
26. Kurt, B., Dieter, W.H., Monte Carlo Simulation in Statistical Physics: an Introduction. 2010.
27. Lehmann, S., Zaman, A.U., Devlin, J., et al. Supporting urban planning of low-carbon precincts: integrated demand forecasting. Sustainability 5:5 (2013), 5289–5318.
28. Li, W., Launch of two-child policy may cause 1 million new born population per year. 21CBH. 2013-11-16. Available from website, 2013 (in Chinese, “单独二胎”政策启动每年可能多生100万人) http://jingji.21cbh.com/2013/11-16/xMNjUxXzkzNTUxMA.html.
29. Li, Z., Yang, Y., Qiao, L., Difference among the growth of GDP and urbanization of provinces and cities in west China since the reform and opening-up. China Popul. Resour. Environ. 18:5 (2008), 19–26 (in Chinese, 改革开放以来西部省(区)及城市GDP增长和城市化差异研究).
30. Liddle, B., Impact of population, age structure, and urbanization on carbon emissions/energy consumption: evidence from macro-level, cross-country analyses. Popul. Environ. 35:3 (2014), 286–304.
31. Lin, Y., China's Urbanization Rate Will Be 75% in the Future Decade. Nandu. 2013-10-13. Available from website, 2013 (in Chinese, 中国城市化率未来十年将达到75%) http://epaper.oeeee.com/H/html/2013-10/13/content_1949736.htm.
32. Lin, B., Liu, X., China's carbon dioxide emissions under the urbanization process: influence factors and abatement policies. Econ. Res. J. 8 (2010), 66–78 (in Chinese, 中国城市化阶段的碳排放, 影响因素和减排策略).
33. Lin, S., Wang, R., The analysis of urbanization lagging far behind industrialization. J. Ind. Technol. Econ. 1 (2012), 147–152 (in Chinese, 我国城市化落后于工业化的原因分析).
34. Liu, S., The Analysis on China's Macroeconomic Trend at Present and in the Future Five Years. 2013 China Business and Market, 1: 004 (in Chinese, 当前和未来五年中国宏观经济走势分析).
35. Liu, Z., Zheng, T., Xia, L., Research on the impact of China's urbanization on GDP. J. Chongqing Technol. Bus. Univ. (West Forum), 16(3), 2006 (in Chinese, 中国城市化对 GDP 影响研究).
36. Lu, M., Chen, Z., Urbanization, urban-biased economic policies and urban-rural inequality. Econ. Res. J. 6 (2004), 50–58 (in Chinese, 城市化, 城市倾向的经济政策与城乡收入差距).
37. Mahadevan, S., Monte Carlo Simulation. Mechanical Engineering-New York and Basel-Marcel Dekker, 1997, 123–146.
38. Martínez-Zarzoso, I., Maruotti, A., The impact of urbanization on CO 2 emissions: evidence from developing countries. Ecol. Econ. 70:7 (2011), 1344–1353.
39. Available from website The World's Gross Domestic Production Rankings. Ministry of Commerce of PRC, 2013, 9–25 (in Chinese，世界国内生产总值排名) http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/i/dxfw/jlyd/201309/20130900321950.shtml.
40. Müller, D.B., Liu, G., Løvik, A.N., Modaresi, R., Pauliuk, S., Steinhoff, F.S., Brattebø, H., Carbon emissions of infrastructure development. Environ. Sci. Technol. 47:20 (2013), 11739–11746.
41. National Bureau of Statistics, National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin in 2012 of the People's Republic of China. 2013-2-23. Available from website, 2013, Xinhua (in Chinese, 中华人民共和国2012年国民经济和社会发展统计公报) http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2013-02/23/c_114772758.htm.
42. National Bureau of Statistics PRC, China Statistical Yearbook (1990-2013). 1990-2013, China Statistics Press.
43. Nakamura, K., Hayashi, Y., Strategies and instruments for low-carbon urban transport: an international review on trends and effects. Transp. Policy 29:3 (2013), 264–274.
44. Panayotou, T., Empirical Tests and Policy Analysis of Environmental Degradation at Different Stages of Economic Development (No. 292778). 1993, International Labour Organization.
45. Parikh, J., Shukla, V., Urbanization, energy use and greenhouse effects in economic development. Glob. Environ. Change 5:2 (1995), 87–103.
46. Raupach, M.R., Marland, G., Ciais, P., Le Quéré, C., Canadell, J.G., Klepper, G., Field, C.B., Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 104:24 (2007), 10288–10293.
47. Raychaudhuri, S., Introduction to Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation, 2008, December.
48. Shahbaz, M., Hussain Shahzad, S.J., Jammazi, R., Nexus between US Energy Sources and Economic Activity: Time-frequency and Bootstrap Rolling Window Causality Analysis. 2016.
49. Shi, L., China's renewable energy development strategy. Sino—Global Energy 3 (2010), 29–32 (in Chinese, 我国可再生能源发展对策).
50. Sun, H.Z., LI, J.M., Cointegration analysis of urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions in China. Popul. J., 5, 2010, 006.
51. Sun, B., Luh, P.B., Jia, Q.S., Jiang, Z., Wang, F., Song, C., Building energy management: integrated control of active and passive heating, cooling, lighting, shading and ventilation systems. IEEE Trans. Autom. Sci. Eng. 10:3 (2013), 588–602.
52. Tao, Y., Li, F., Liu, X., Zhao, D., Sun, X., Xu, L., Variation in ecosystem services across an urbanization gradient: a study of terrestrial carbon stocks from Changzhou, China. Ecol. Model. 318 (2015), 210–216.
53. Tao, Y., Li, F., Wang, R., Zhao, D., Effects of land use and cover change on terrestrial carbon stocks in urbanized areas: a study from Changzhou, China. J. Clean. Prod. 103 (2015), 651–657.
54. Tao, Y., Li, F., Crittenden, J.C., Lu, Z., Sun, X., Environmental impacts of China's urbanization from 2000 to 2010 and management implications. Environ. Manag. 57:2 (2016), 498–507.
55. The State Council, The New Urbanization State Plan (2014-2020). 2014 2014-3-16. Available from website http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/2014-03/16/content_2640075.htm.
56. Tian, X., Review and outlook on new China's population policy in the past 60 years. Trib. Study 2 (2010), 64–66 (in Chinese, 新中国60年人口政策回顾与展望).
57. Wang, X., China's GDP Ranking Second in the World Makes Little Sense and it Falls behind in Most Areas. 2011-3-1. Available from website, 2011-3-1, Finance Huanqiu (in Chinese, GDP居世界第二被指意义不大 多领域落后) http://finance.huanqiu.com/roll/2011-03/1529791.html.
58. 2 2 emissions: empirical evidence from China. Sci. Total Environ. 542 (2016), 360–371.
59. Wei, W., Yang, F., Impact of technology advance on carbon dioxide emission in China. Stat. Res. 27:007 (2010), 36–44 (in Chinese, 技术进步对中国二氧化碳排放的影响).
60. Wright, Lloyd, Fulton, Lewis, Climate change mitigation and transport in developing nations. Transp. Rev. 25:6 (2005), 691–717.
61. Whitmore, J., Carbon Emissions Still Growing when They Must Fall: Report. The Conversation. Available from website, 2013-11-19 http://theconversation.com/carbon-emissions-still-growing-when-they-must-fall-report-20412.
62. Wu, Y., Zhang, X., Shen, L., The impact of urbanization policy on land use change: a scenario analysis. Cities 28:2 (2011), 147–159.
63. Xu, P., Chan, E.H.W., ANP model for sustainable Building Energy Efficiency Retrofit (BEER) using Energy Performance Contracting (EPC) for hotel buildings in China. Habitat Int. 37:1 (2013), 104–112.
64. Yao, E., Where Does 2400 Billion Come from?. 2012, ZheShang (20) (in Chinese，2.4 万亿元从哪里来).
65. Yao, C., Feng, K., Hubacek, K., Driving forces of CO 2 emissions in the G20 countries: an index decomposition analysis from 1971 to 2010. Ecol. Inf. 26 (2015), 93–100.
66. Yifu, Lin, China's Economy Has the Potential to Remain at Around 8% over that Next 20 Years. 2014-1-11. Available from website, 2014, Xinhua (in Chinese，中国经济未来20年有潜力年增8%) http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2014-01/11/c_118927820.htm.
67. Yoichi, K., Impact of Carbon Dioxide Emission on GNP Growth: Interpretation of Proposed Scenarios. 1989, Presentation to the energy and industry subgroup, response strategies working group, IPCC, Paris.
68. Yu, X., Zhang, M., Decomposition of factors influencing carbon emissions in the region of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, based on the perspective of terminal energy consumption. Chin. J. Popul. Resour. Environ. 12:4 (2014), 338–344.
69. Yue, G., Ren, R., Cheng, X., China's Economic Growth and Urbanization Level. 2009, China Economic & Trade Herald, 2010–2020 (18): 17 (in Chinese, 2010-2020 年, 中国经济增长与城市化水平).
70. Zhang, L., China's Current Population Problems. China Newsweek, 39: 009(in Chinese, 中国当前的人口问题), 2010.
71. Zhang, W., Empirical Research on the Social Security System for Land-expropriated Farmers. 2012, Capital University of Economics and Business (in Chinese, 关于被征地农民社会保障制度的实证研究).
72. Zhang, C., Lin, Y., Panel estimation for urbanization, energy consumption and CO 2 emissions: a regional analysis in China. Energy Policy 49 (2012), 488–498.
73. Zhang, X., Wu, Y., Skitmore, M., Jiang, S., Sustainable infrastructure projects in balancing urban–rural development: towards the goal of efficiency and equity. J. Clean. Prod. 107 (2015), 445–454.
74. Zhou, J., Panel data analysis on relation between per capita GDP, energy intensity and carbon emissions. Environ. Sci. Manag. 38:2 (2013), 165–167 (in Chinese, 人均GDP, 能源强度与碳排放的面板数据分析).
75. 2 emissions in China (2010-2050). China Environ. Sci. 8 (2010), 1142–1148 (in Chinese, 中国能源消费排放的 CO2 测算).
76. Zou, P., Review and reflections on China's population policy shift in the early days. Popul. Res. 10:6 (1986), 1–5 (in Chinese, 关于建国初期我国人口政策转变的回顾与思考).