Drylands face potential threat under 2 °c global warming target

Nature Climate Change

Volumn 7, Issue 6, 2017, Pages 417-422

  Huang, Jianping ^a   Yu, Haipeng ^a   Dai, Aiguo ^b,c   Wei, Yun ^a   Kang, Litai ^a  

^a LANZHOU UNIVERSITY   (China)

^b STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK   (United States)

^c NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; CARBON EMISSION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CROP YIELD; DROUGHT; DRYLAND FARMING; GLOBAL WARMING; INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENT; LAND TYPE; MAIZE; RISK ASSESSMENT; RUNOFF; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY;

ZEA MAYS;

EID: 85020136269     PISSN: 1758678X     EISSN: 17586798     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3275     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Adoption of the Paris Agreement FCCC/CP/2015/L9/Rev.1 (UNFCCC, 2015).
2. Knutti, R., Rogelj, J., Sedl?ek, J. & Fischer, E. M. A scientific critique of the two-degree climate change target. Nat. Geosci. 9, 13-18 (2015).
3. Seneviratne, S. I., Donat, M. G., Pitman, A. J., Knutti, R. &Wilby, R. L. Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature 529, 477-483 (2016).
4. Hartmann, D. L. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 159-254 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
5. Dai, A. Future warming patterns linked to today's climate variability. Sci. Rep. 6, 19110 (2016).
6. Shukla, J. & Mintz, Y. Influence of land-surface evapotranspiration on the Earth's climate. Science 215, 1498-1501 (1982).
7. Wu, Z., Huang, N.,Wallace, J., Smoliak, B. & Chen, X. On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature. Clim. Dynam. 37, 759-773 (2011).
8. Wallace, J. M. & Johanson, C. M. Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the extratropical northern hemisphere continents during the cold season. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, 14337-14342 (2012).
9. Huang, J., Guan, X. & Ji, F. Enhanced cold-season warming in semi-arid regions. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 12, 5391-5398 (2012).
10. Huang, J., Yu, H., Guan, X.,Wang, G. & Guo, R. Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 166-171 (2016).
11. Guan, X. et al. Role of radiatively forced temperature changes in enhanced semi-arid warming in the cold season over East Asia. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 15, 13777-13786 (2015).
12. Safriel, U. Deserts and desertification: challenges but also opportunities. Land Degrad. Dev. 20, 353-366 (2009).
13. Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G. A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 4, 485-498 (2012).
14. Dai, A., Fyfe, J. C., Xie, S. & Dai, X. Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 555-559 (2015).
15. Feng, S. & Fu, Q. Expansion of global drylands under a warming climate. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 13, 10081-10094 (2013).
16. North, B. G. R., Kim, K. Y., Shen, S. P. & Hardin, W. W. Detection of forced climate signals. Part I: Filter theory. J. Clim. 8, 401-408 (1995).
17. Yin, D., Roderick, M. L., Leech, G., Sun, F. & Huang, Y. The contribution of reduction in evaporative cooling to higher surface air temperatures during drought. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 7891-7897 (2014).
18. Foley, A. J., Costa, M. H., Delire, C., Ramankutty, N. & Snyder, P. Green surprise? How terrestrial ecpsystems could affect Earth's climate. Front. Ecol. Environ. 1, 38-44 (2003).
19. Liu, Z., Notaro, M., Kutzbach, J. & Liu, N. Assessing global vegetation-climate feedbacks from observations. J. Clim. 19, 787-814 (2006).
20. Neelin, J., Chou, C. & Su, H. Tropical drought regions in global warming and El Nino teleconnections. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 2275 (2003).
21. Hartmann, D. L., Ockert-Bell, M. E. & Michelsen, M. L. The effect of cloud type on Earth's energy balance: global analysis. J. Clim. 5, 1281-1304 (1992).
22. Li, Z. et al. The long-term impacts of aerosols on the vertical development of clouds and precipitation. Nat. Geosci. 4, 888-894 (2011).
23. Fu, Q., Johanson, C. M.,Wallace, J. M. & Reichler, T. Enhanced mid-latitude tropospheric warming in satellite measurements. Science 312, 1179 (2006).
24. Li, H., Dai, A., Zhou, T. & Lu, J. Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to historical SST and atmospheric forcing during 1950-2000. Clim. Dynam. 34, 501-514 (2010).
25. Fu, C., Jiang, Z., Guan, Z., He, J. & Xu, Z. Regional Climate Studies of China Vol. 1, 156-159 (Springer, 2008).
26. Schleussner, C. F. et al. Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 C. Earth Syst. Dynam. 7, 327-351 (2016).
27. Porter, J. R. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 485-533 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
28. Wang, L., Yuan, X., Xie, Z.,Wu, P. & Li, Y. Increasing flash droughts over China during the recent global warming hiatus. Sci. Rep. 6, 30571 (2016).
29. Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Stao, M. & Lo, K. Global surface temperature change. Rev. Geophys. 48, RG4004 (2010).
30. Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A. & Jones, P. D. Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: the HadCRUT4 dataset. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D08101 (2012).
31. Dai, A. & Zhao, T. Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part I: estimates of historical drought changes. Climatic Change http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1705-2 (2016).
32. Chen, M. Y., Xie, P. P., Janowiak, J. E. & Arkin, P. A. Global land precipitation: a 50-yr monthly analysis based on gauge observations. J. Hydrometeorol. 3, 249-266 (2002).
33. Schneider, U. et al. GPCC Full Data Reanalysis Version 7.0 at 0.5 : Monthly Land-Surface Precipitation from Rain-Gauges Built on GTS-Based and Historic Data (Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, 2015); http://dx.doi.org/10.5676/DWD-GPCC/FD-M-V7-050
34. Penman, H. L. Natural evaporation from open water, bare soil and grass. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A 193, 120-145 (1948).
35. Monteith, J. L. Evaporation and Environment 205-234 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1965).
36. Andres, R. J., Boden, T. A. & Marland, G. Annual Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: Mass of Emissions Gridded by One Degree Latitude by One Degree Longitude (Carbon dioxide information analysis center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, 2016); http://dx.doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/e.ndp058.2016
37. Huete, A. et al. Overview of the radiometric and biophysical performance of the MODIS vegetation indices. Remote Sens. Environ. 83, 195-213 (2002).
38. Rodell, M. et al. The Global Land Data Assimilation System. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 85, 381-394 (2004).
39. Loeb, N. G. et al. Toward optimal closure of the Earth's top-of-atmosphere radiation budget. J. Clim. 3, 748-766 (2009).
40. Ramanathan, V. et al. Cloud-radiative forcing and climate: results from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. Science 243, 57-63 (1989).
41. Stanfield, R. E. et al. Assessment of NASA GISS CMIP5 and post-CMIP5 simulated clouds and TOA radiation budgets using satellite observations. Part II: TOA radiation budget and CREs. J. Clim. 28, 1842-1864 (2015).
42. Wielicki, B. A. et al. Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES): an Earth observing system experiment. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77, 853-868 (1996).
43. Sayer, A. M. et al. MODIS Collection 6 aerosol products: comparison between Aqua's e-Deep Blue, Dark Target, and "merged'' data sets, and usage recommendations. J. Geophys. Res. 119, 13965-13989 (2014).
44. Warszawski, L. et al. The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP): project framework. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111, 3228-3232 (2014).
45. Hartman, J., Ebi, K., McConnell, K., Chan, N. &Weyant, J. Climate suitability for stable malaria transmission in Zimbabwe under different climate change scenarios. Glob. Change Hum. Health 3, 42-54 (2012).