High resolution mapping of overheating and mortality risk

Building and Environment

Volumn 122, Issue , 2017, Pages 1-14

  Liu, C ^a   Kershaw, T ^a   Fosas, D ^a   Ramallo Gonzalez, A P ^b   Natarajan, S ^a   Coley, D A ^a  

^a University of Bath   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MURCIA   (Spain)

Author keywords

Cities; Climate change; Hot summer; Overheating map; Overheating risk; Spatial variability

Indexed keywords

ARCHITECTURE; BUILDINGS; CLIMATE MODELS; CLIMATOLOGY;

BUILDING CHARACTERISTICS; CITIES; CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTION; EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS; HIGH-RESOLUTION MAPPING; HOT SUMMER; SPATIAL VARIABILITY; THERMAL CHARACTERISTICS;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

BUILDING; CLIMATE CHANGE; HEAT WAVE; HEATING; MAP; MORTALITY RISK; SPATIAL VARIATION; SUMMER;

FRANCE; ILE DE FRANCE; PARIS; VILLE DE PARIS;

EID: 85020008938     PISSN: 03601323     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2017.05.028     Document Type: Article

References (63)

1. United Nations, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 1992, United Nations.
2. IPCC, Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S.K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., Midgley, P.M., (eds.), 2013, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
3. ASC, UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 Synthesis Report: Priorities for the Next Five Years., 2016 London.
4. Fouillet, A., Rey, G., Laurent, F., Pavillon, G., Bellec, S., Guihenneuc-Jouyaux, C., Clavel, J., Jougla, E., Hémon, D., Excess mortality related to the August 2003 heat wave in France. Int. Arch. Occup. Environ. Health 80:1 (2006), 16–24.
5. Johnson, H., Kovats, R.S., McGregor, G., Stedman, J., Gibbs, M., Walton, H., The impact of the 2003 heat wave on daily mortality in England and Wales and the use of rapid weekly mortality estimates. Euro Surveill. Bull. Eur. les Mal. Transm. = Eur. Commun. dis. Bull. 10:7 (2005), 168–171.
6. Vandentorren, S., Bretin, P., Zeghnoun, A., Mandereau-Bruno, L., Croisier, A., Cochet, C., Riberon, J., Siberan, I., Declercq, B., Ledrans, M., August 2003 heat wave in France: risk factors for death of elderly people living at home. Eur. J. public health 16:6 (2006), 583–591.
7. Christidis, N., Jones, G.S., Stott, P.A., Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave. Nat. Clim. Change 5:1 (2015), 46–50.
8. McLeod, R.S., Hopfe, C.J., Kwan, A., An investigation into future performance and overheating risks in Passivhaus dwellings. Build. Environ. 70 (2013), 189–209.
9. Gupta, R., Gregg, M., Using UK climate change projections to adapt existing English homes for a warming climate. Build. Environ. 55:0 (2012), 20–42.
10. Jentsch, M.F., Bahaj, A.S., James, P.A.B., Climate change future proofing of buildings—generation and assessment of building simulation weather files. Energy Build. 40:12 (2008), 2148–2168.
11. Jenkins, D.P., Patidar, S., Banfill, P.F.G., Gibson, G.J., Probabilistic climate projections with dynamic building simulation: predicting overheating in dwellings. Energy Build. 43:7 (2011), 1723–1731.
12. Frank, T., Climate change impacts on building heating and cooling energy demand in Switzerland. Energy Build. 37:11 (2005), 1175–1185.
13. Coley, D., Kershaw, T., Eames, M., A comparison of structural and behavioural adaptations to future proofing buildings against higher temperatures. Build. Environ. 55 (2012), 159–166.
14. Demanuele, C., Mavrogianni, A., Davies, M., Kolokotroni, M., Rajapaksha, I., Using localised weather files to assess overheating in naturally ventilated offices within London's urban heat island. Build. Serv. Eng. Res. Technol. 33:4 (2012), 351–369.
15. Jenkins, K., Hall, J., Glenis, V., Kilsby, C., McCarthy, M., Goodess, C., Smith, D., Malleson, N., Birkin, M., Probabilistic spatial risk assessment of heat impacts and adaptations for London. Clim. Change 124:1 (2014), 105–117.
16. Tian, W., de Wilde, P., Thermal building simulation using the UKCP09 probabilistic climate projections. J. Build. Perform. Simul. 4:2 (2011), 105–124.
17. Wilde, P., Tian, W., Identification of key factors for uncertainty in the prediction of the thermal performance of an office building under climate change. Build. Simul. 2:3 (2009), 157–174.
18. de Wilde, P., Tian, W., Predicting the performance of an office under climate change: a study of metrics, sensitivity and zonal resolution. Energy Build. 42:10 (2010), 1674–1684.
19. Gupta, R., Gregg, M., Preventing the overheating of English suburban homes in a warming climate. Build. Res. Inf. 41:3 (2013), 281–300.
20. Peacock, A.D., Jenkins, D.P., Kane, D., Investigating the potential of overheating in UK dwellings as a consequence of extant climate change. Energy Policy 38:7 (2010), 3277–3288.
21. Mavrogianni, A., Wilkinson, P., Davies, M., Biddulph, P., Oikonomou, E., Building characteristics as determinants of propensity to high indoor summer temperatures in London dwellings. Build. Environ. 55:0 (2012), 117–130.
22. CIBSE, Future CIBSE TRY/DSY Hourly Weather Data. 2013, The Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers London.
23. Eames, M., Kershaw, T., Coley, D., The appropriate spatial resolution of future weather files for building simulation. J. Build. Perform. Simu 5:6 (2012), 347–358.
24. Futcher, J.A., Kershaw, T., Mills, G., Urban form and function as building performance parameters. Build. Environ. 62 (2013), 112–123.
25. DCLG, English Housing Survey TECHNICAL REPORT 2013-14., 2015, Department for Communities and Local Government, London, UK.
26. DECC, Energy Follow-up Survey 2011. 2013, Department of Energy and Climate Change, London, UK.
27. EST, Homes Energy Efficiency Database. 2013, Energy Saving Trust, London, UK.
28. Taylor, J., Davies, M., Mavrogianni, A., Chalabi, Z., Biddulph, P., Oikonomou, E., Das, P., Jones, B., The relative importance of input weather data for indoor overheating risk assessment in dwellings. Build. Environ. 76:0 (2014), 81–91.
29. Porritt, S.M., Cropper, P.C., Shao, L., Goodier, C.I., Ranking of interventions to reduce dwelling overheating during heat waves. Energy Build. 55:0 (2012), 16–27.
30. Oikonomou, E., Davies, M., Mavrogianni, A., Biddulph, P., Wilkinson, P., Kolokotroni, M., Modelling the relative importance of the urban heat island and the thermal quality of dwellings for overheating in London. Build. Environ. 57:0 (2012), 223–238.
31. Taylor, J., Wilkinson, P., Davies, M., Armstrong, B., Chalabi, Z., Mavrogianni, A., Symonds, P., Oikonomou, E., Bohnenstengel, S.I., Mapping the effects of urban heat island, housing, and age on excess heat-related mortality in London. Urban Clim. 14:Part 4 (2015), 517–528.
32. Liu, C., Kershaw, T., Eames, M.E., Coley, D.A., Future probabilistic hot summer years for overheating risk assessments. Build. Environ. 105 (2016), 56–68.
33. ONS, 2011 Census Ward Profile No.4 – Housing and Accommodation. 2011, Office for National Statistics, UK.
34. Holden, J., Rose, R., Temperature and surface lapse rate change: a study of the UK's longest upland instrumental record. Int. J. Climatol. 31:6 (2011), 907–919.
35. URBED, Sheffield Garden City? Options for Long Term Urban Growth, Urbanism, Environment and Design. UK, 2015.
36. Belcher, S.E., Hacker, J.N., Powell, D.S., Constructing design weather data for future climates. Build. Serv. Eng. Res. Technol. 26:1 (2005), 49–61.
37. Jones, P.D., Kilsby, C.G., Harpham, C., Glenis, V., Burton, A., UK Climate Projections Science Report: Projections of Future Daily Climate for the UK from the Weather Generator., 2010, University of Newcastle, UK University of Newcastle, UK.
38. Jenkins, G.J., Murphy, J.M., Sexton, D.S., Lowe, J.A., Jones, P., Kilsby, C.G., UK Climate Projections: Briefing Report., 2009, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.
39. Eames, M., Kershaw, T.J., Coley, D., A comparison of future weather created from morphed observed weather and created by a weather generator. Build. Environ. 56 (2012), 252–264.
40. Eames, M., Kershaw, T., Coley, D., On the creation of future probabilistic design weather years from UKCP09. Build. Serv. Eng. Res. Technol. 32:2 (2011), 127–142.
41. Watkins, R., Levermore, G., Parkinson, J., Constructing a future weather file for use in building simulation using UKCP09 projections. Build. Serv. Eng. Res. Technol. 32:3 (2011), 293–299.
42. Watkins, R., Levermore, G., Parkinson, J., The design reference year - a new approach to testing a building in more extreme weather using UKCP09 projections. Build. Serv. Eng. Res. Technol. 34:2 (2012), 165–176.
43. Smith, S.T., Hanby, V., Methodologies for the generation of design summer years for building energy simulation using UKCP09 probabilistic climate projections. Build. Serv. Eng. Res. Technol. 33:1 (2012), 9–17.
44. Jentsch, M.F., Eames, M.E., Levermore, G.J., Generating near-extreme Summer Reference Years for building performance simulation. Build. Serv. Eng. Res. Technol. 36 (2015), 701–727.
45. Mylona, A., The use of UKCP09 to produce weather files for building simulation. Build. Serv. Eng. Res. Technol., 33, 2012, 13.
46. Hoppe, P., The physiological equivalent temperature - a universal index for the biometeorological assessment of the thermal environment. Int. J. biometeorol. 43:2 (1999), 71–75.
47. Google, Map of Sheffield, The Interactive Map of UKCP09 User Interface. 2017 http://ukclimateprojections-ui.metoffice.gov.uk/ui/req_bldr/location.php Accessed 10 Feb 2017.
48. A.P. Ramallo-González, Vellei, M., Brown, M., Coley, D., A remote window surveying tool for energy efficient refurbishment, 6th International building Physics Conference, Turin, Italy, 2015.
49. Littlefair, P., Daylight, sunlight and solar gain in the urban environment. Sol. Energy 70:3 (2001), 177–185.
50. EST, Cavity and Solid Walls. 2016 http://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/home-insulation/cavity-wall (Accessed 10/10 2016).
51. NEA, Small-sample techniques. Natl. Educ. Assoc. Bull., 38, 1960, 99.
52. The Research Advisors, Required Sample Size. 2006 http://research-advisors.com/tools/SampleSize.htm (Accessed 6 July 2016).
53. Allen, E.A., Pinney, A., Standard Dwellings for Modelling: Details of Dimensions, Construction and Occupancy Schedules. Building Performance Analysis Club (BEPAC) Technical note, 1990, Building Research Establishment, Watford, UK, 90–92.
54. DCLG, English Housing Survey Headline Report 2014-15., 2016, Department for Communities and Local Government, London, UK.
55. Liu, C., Details for thermal modelling of typical UK dwellings. Data in Brief, 2017.
56. Beizaee, A., Lomas, K.J., Firth, S.K., National survey of summertime temperatures and overheating risk in English homes. Build. Environ. 65:0 (2013), 1–17.
57. Building Regulation, Approved Document F, Ventilation. 2010 https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/468871/ADF_LOCKED.pdf (Accessed 20 November 2016).
58. Richardson, I., Thomson, M., Domestic Electricity Demand Model, Centre for Renewable Energy Systems Technology, Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering. 2010, Loughborough University, Leicestershire LE11 3TU, UK.
59. CIBSE, CIBSE Guide a: Environmental Design. 2006, The Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers, London.
60. CIBSE, CIBSE TM 49: Design Summer Years for London. 2014, The Chatered Institution of Building Services Engineers, London.
61. Armstrong, B.G., Chalabi, Z., Fenn, B., Hajat, S., Kovats, S., Milojevic, A., Wilkinson, P., Association of mortality with high temperatures in a temperate climate: England and Wales. J. Epidemiol. Community Health 65:4 (2011), 340–345.
62. ONS, Neighbourhood Statistics, 2011, Office for National Statistics, London, UK.
63. Coley, D., Kershaw, T., Changes in internal temperatures within the built environment as a response to a changing climate. Build. Environ. 45:1 (2010), 89–93.