Prediction of transition from ultra-high risk to first-episode psychosis using a probabilistic model combining history, clinical assessment and fatty-acid biomarkers

Translational Psychiatry

Volumn 6, Issue 9, 2016, Pages

  Clark, S R ^a   Baune, B T ^a   Schubert, K O ^a   Lavoie, S ^b   Smesny, S ^c   Rice, S M ^b   Schafer M R ^b   Benninger, F ^d   Feucht, M ^e   Klier, C M ^e   McGorry, P D ^b   Amminger, G P ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ADELAIDE   (Australia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE   (Australia)

^c JENA UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL   (Germany)

^d MEDICAL UNIVERSITY OF VIENNA   (Austria)

^e UNIV KLIN KINDER JUGENDHEILKUNDE   (Austria)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BIOLOGICAL MARKER; FATTY ACID; NERVONIC ACID; OMEGA 3 FATTY ACID; UNCLASSIFIED DRUG; MEMBRANE LIPID;

ACCURACY; ADOLESCENT; ADULT; ARTICLE; BAYES THEOREM; CELL MEMBRANE; CHILD; CLINICAL ARTICLE; CLINICAL ASSESSMENT; COHORT ANALYSIS; ELECTROENCEPHALOGRAPHY; FAMILY HISTORY; FEMALE; GLOBAL ASSESSMENT OF FUNCTIONING; HIGH RISK PATIENT; HUMAN; MALE; MEDICAL HISTORY; ODDS RATIO; OUTCOME ASSESSMENT; OXIDATIVE STRESS; POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SYNDROME SCALE; PREDICTION; PREDICTOR VARIABLE; PROBABILITY; PSYCHOSIS; QUANTITATIVE ELECTROENCEPHALOGRAPHY; RECEIVER OPERATING CHARACTERISTIC; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK FACTOR; SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY; STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE; YOUNG ADULT; BIPOLAR DISORDER; DISEASE COURSE; METABOLISM; PARANOID SCHIZOPHRENIA; PATHOPHYSIOLOGY; PRODROMAL SYMPTOM; PSYCHOLOGY; RISK;

ADOLESCENT; BAYES THEOREM; BIPOLAR DISORDER; CHILD; COHORT STUDIES; DISEASE PROGRESSION; ELECTROENCEPHALOGRAPHY; FATTY ACIDS; FEMALE; HUMANS; MALE; MEMBRANE LIPIDS; ODDS RATIO; OXIDATIVE STRESS; PROBABILITY; PRODROMAL SYMPTOMS; PSYCHOTIC DISORDERS; RISK; RISK ASSESSMENT; ROC CURVE; SCHIZOPHRENIA, PARANOID; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 85017366200     PISSN: None     EISSN: 21583188     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/tp.2016.170     Document Type: Article

References (70)

1. Yung AR, Yuen HP, McGorry PD, Phillips LJ, Kelly D, Dell'Olio M et al. Mapping the onset of psychosis: the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States. Aust N Z J Psychiatry 2005; 39: 964-971.
2. Fusar-Poli P, Bonoldi I, Yung AR, Borgwardt S, Kempton MJ, Valmaggia L et al. Predicting psychosis: meta-analysis of transition outcomes in individuals at high clinical risk. Arch Gen Psychiatry 2012; 69: 220-229.
3. Clark SR, Schubert KO, Baune BT. Towards indicated prevention of psychosis: using probabilistic assessments of transition risk in psychosis prodrome. J Neural Transm 2015; 122: 155-169.
4. Nelson B, Yuen HP, Wood SJ, Lin A, Spiliotacopoulos D, Bruxner A et al. Long-term follow-up of a group at ultra high risk ("prodromal") for psychosis: the PACE 400 study. JAMA Psychiatry 2013; 70: 793-802.
5. Yung AR, Phillips LJ, Yuen HP, McGorry PD. Risk factors for psychosis in an ultra high-risk group: psychopathology and clinical features. Schizophr Res 2004; 67: 131-142.
6. Strobl EV, Eack SM, Swaminathan V, Visweswaran S. Predicting the risk of psychosis onset: advances and prospects. Early Interv Psychiatry 2012; 6: 368-379.
7. Dragt S, Nieman DH, Veltman D, Becker HE, van de Fliert R, de Haan L et al. Environmental factors and social adjustment as predictors of a first psychosis in subjects at ultra high risk. Schizoph Res 2011; 125: 69-76.
8. Thompson A, Nelson B, Bruxner A, O'Connor K, Mossaheb N, Simmons MB et al. Does specific psychopathology predict development of psychosis in ultra highrisk (UHR) patients? Austr N Z J Psychiatry 2013; 47: 380-390.
9. Fusar-Poli P, Deste G, Smieskova R, Barlati S, Yung AR, Howes O et al. Cognitive functioning in prodromal psychosis: a meta-analysis. Arch Gen Psychiatry 2012; 69: 562-571.
10. Allott KA, Schafer MR, Thompson A, Nelson B, Bendall S, Bartholomeusz CF et al. Emotion recognition as a predictor of transition to a psychotic disorder in ultrahigh risk participants. Schizophr Res 2014; 153: 25-31.
11. Velthorst E, Nelson B, Wiltink S, de Haan L, Wood SJ, Lin A et al. Transition to first episode psychosis in ultra high risk populations: does baseline functioning hold the key? Schizophr Res 2013; 143: 132-137.
12. Wood SJ, Reniers RL, Heinze K. Neuroimaging findings in the at-risk mental state: a review of recent literature. Can J Psychiatry 2013; 58: 13-18.
13. Sumiyoshi T, Miyanishi T, Seo T, Higuchi Y. Electrophysiological and neuropsychological predictors of conversion to schizophrenia in at-risk subjects. Front Behav Neurosci 2013; 7: 148.
14. Bodatsch M, Klosterkotter J, Muller R, Ruhrmann S. Basic disturbances of information processing in psychosis prediction. Front Psychiatry 2013; 4: 93.
15. Lavoie S, Schafer MR, Whitford TJ, Benninger F, Feucht M, Klier CM et al. Frontal delta power associated with negative symptoms in ultrahigh risk individuals who transitioned to psychosis. Schizophr Res 2012; 138: 206-211.
16. Bousman CA, Yung AR, Pantelis C, Ellis JA, Chavez RA, Nelson B et al. Effects of NRG1 and DAOA genetic variation on transition to psychosis in individuals at ultra-high risk for psychosis. Transl Psychiatry 2013; 3: e251.
17. Mossner R, Schuhmacher A, Wagner M, Quednow BB, Frommann I, Kuhn KU et al. DAOA/G72 predicts the progression of prodromal syndromes to first episode psychosis. Eur Arch Psychiatry Clin Neurosci 2010; 260: 209-215.
18. Perkins DO, Jeffries CD, Addington J, Bearden CE, Cadenhead KS, Cannon TD et al. Towards a psychosis risk blood diagnostic for persons experiencing high-risk symptoms: preliminary results from the NAPLS project. Schizophr Bull 2015; 41: 419-428.
19. Gifford G, Crossley N, Fusar-Poli P, Schnack HG, Kahn RS, Koutsouleris N et al. Using neuroimaging to help predict the onset of psychosis. NeuroImage 2016; pii: S1053-8119(16)30019-2; doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2016.03.075 [e-pub ahead of print].
20. Amminger GP, Mechelli A, Rice S, Kim SW, Klier CM, McNamara RK et al. Predictors of treatment response in young people at ultra-high risk for psychosis who received long-chain omega-3 fatty acids. Transl Psychiatry 2015; 5: e495.
21. Gale C, Glue P, Gallagher S. Bayesian analysis of posttest predictive value of screening instruments for the psychosis high-risk state. JAMA Psychiatry 2013; 70: 880-881.
22. McGee S. Simplifying likelihood ratios. J Gen Intern Med 2002; 17: 646-649.
23. Clark S, Pradhan M, Adams R, Faunt J, Hill A. Workflow assessment. In: HINZ 2003 (2nd: 2003: Darling Harbour, N.S.W.). Health Informatics Society of Australia (HISA); Royal Australian College of General Practitioners (RACGP): Brunswick East, VIC, Australia, 2003, pp 149-158.
24. Clark S, Pradhan M, Adams R, Faunt J, Hill A, Guterres A. Opportunities to reduce delay to antibiotic in community acquired pneumonia: early diagnosis modelling and simulation. In: National Health Informatics Conference,13th 2005: Melbourne, VIC, USA. Health Informatics Society of Australia: Brunswick East, Vic, 2005. pp 220-227.
25. Clark SR. Clark SR. Decision support for the treatment of community-acquired pneumonia. PhD thesis, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, 2009.
26. Sox HC, Blatt MA, Higgins MC, Marton KI. Medical Decision Making. 2nd. edn. John Wiley & Sons: West Sussex, 2013.
27. Schubert KO, Clark SR, Baune BT. The use of clinical and biological characteristics to predict outcome following first episode psychosis. Aust N Z J Psychiatry 2015; 49: 24-35.
28. Amminger GP, Schafer MR, Papageorgiou K, Klier CM, Cotton SM, Harrigan SM et al. Long-chain omega-3 fatty acids for indicated prevention of psychotic disorders: a randomized, placebo-controlled trial. Arch Gen Psychiatry 2010; 67: 146-154.
29. Davis J, Moylan S, Harvey BH, Maes M, Berk M. Neuroprogression in schizophrenia: pathways underpinning clinical staging and therapeutic corollaries. Aust N Z Psychiatry 2014; 48: 512-529.
30. Flatow J, Buckley P, Miller BJ. Meta-analysis of oxidative stress in schizophrenia. Biol Psychiatry 2013; 74: 400-409.
31. Pandya CD, Howell KR, Pillai A. Antioxidants as potential therapeutics for neuropsychiatric disorders. Progr Neuro-psychopharmacol Biol Psychiatry 2013; 46: 214-223.
32. Yao JK, Keshavan MS. Antioxidants, redox signaling, and pathophysiology in schizophrenia: an integrative view. Antioxid Redox Signal 2011; 15: 2011-2035.
33. Martinez-Cengotitabengoa M, Mac-Dowell KS, Leza JC, Mico JA, Fernandez M, Echevarria E et al. Cognitive impairment is related to oxidative stress and chemokine levels in first psychotic episodes. Schizophr Res 2012; 137: 66-72.
34. Fraguas D, Gonzalez-Pinto A, Mico JA, Reig S, Parellada M, Martinez-Cengotitabengoa M et al. Decreased glutathione levels predict loss of brain volume in children and adolescents with first-episode psychosis in a two-year longitudinal study. Schizophr Res 2012; 137: 58-65.
35. Smesny S, Milleit B, Hipler UC, Milleit C, Schafer MR, Klier CM et al. Omega-3 fatty acid supplementation changes intracellular phospholipase A2 activity and membrane fatty acid profiles in individuals at ultra-high risk for psychosis. Mol Psychiatry 2014; 19: 317-324.
36. Calder PC. Fatty acids and inflammation: the cutting edge between food and pharma. Eur J Pharmacol 2011; 668(Suppl 1): S50-S58.
37. Amminger GP, Schafer MR, Schlogelhofer M, Klier CM, McGorry PD. Longer-term outcome in the prevention of psychotic disorders by the Vienna omega-3 study. Nat Commun 2015; 6: 7934.
38. Zhang W, Li P, Hu X, Zhang F, Chen J, Gao Y. Omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids in the brain: metabolism and neuroprotection. Front Biosci (Landmark Ed) 2011; 16: 2653-2670.
39. Peters BD, Machielsen MW, Hoen WP, Caan MW, Malhotra AK, Szeszko PR et al. Polyunsaturated fatty acid concentration predicts myelin integrity in early-phase psychosis. Schizophr Bull 2013; 39: 830-838.
40. Amminger GP, Schafer MR, Klier CM, Slavik JM, Holzer I, Holub M et al. Decreased nervonic acid levels in erythrocyte membranes predict psychosis in help-seeking ultra-high-risk individuals. Mol Psychiatry 2012; 17: 1150-1152.
41. Hoen WP, Lijmer JG, Duran M, Wanders RJ, van Beveren NJ, de Haan L. Red blood cell polyunsaturated fatty acids measured in red blood cells and schizophrenia: a meta-analysis. Psychiatry Res 2013; 207: 1-12.
42. van der Kemp WJ, Klomp DW, Kahn RS, Luijten PR, Hulshoff Pol HE. A metaanalysis of the polyunsaturated fatty acid composition of erythrocyte membranes in schizophrenia. Schizophr Res 2012; 141: 153-161.
43. Rice SM, Schafer MR, Klier C, Mossaheb N, Vijayakumar N, Amminger GP. Erythrocyte polyunsaturated fatty acid levels in young people at ultra-high risk for psychotic disorder and healthy adolescent controls. Psychiatry Res 2015; 228: 174-176.
44. van Vugt MK, Sederberg PB, Kahana MJ. Comparison of spectral analysis methods for characterizing brain oscillations. J Neurosci Methods 2007; 162: 49-63.
45. Boutros NN, Arfken C, Galderisi S, Warrick J, Pratt G, Iacono W. The status of spectral EEG abnormality as a diagnostic test for schizophrenia. Schizophr Res 2008; 99: 225-237.
46. Ranlund S, Nottage J, Shaikh M, Dutt A, Constante M, Walshe M et al. Resting EEG in psychosis and at-risk populations-A possible endophenotype? Schizophr Res 2014; 153: 96-102.
47. Gschwandtner U, Zimmermann R, Pflueger MO, Riecher-Rossler A, Fuhr P. Negative symptoms in neuroleptic-naive patients with first-episode psychosis correlate with QEEG parameters. Schizophr Res 2009; 115: 231-236.
48. Zimmermann R, Gschwandtner U, Wilhelm FH, Pflueger MO, Riecher-Rossler A, Fuhr P. EEG spectral power and negative symptoms in at-risk individuals predict transition to psychosis. Schizophr Res 2010; 123: 208-216.
49. van Tricht MJ, Ruhrmann S, Arns M, Muller R, Bodatsch M, Velthorst E et al. Can quantitative EEG measures predict clinical outcome in subjects at Clinical High Risk for psychosis? A prospective multicenter study. Schizophr Res 2014; 153: 42-47.
50. Morrison AP, French P, Walford L, Lewis SW, Kilcommons A, Green J et al. Cognitive therapy for the prevention of psychosis in people at ultra-high risk: randomised controlled trial. Br J Psychiatry 2004; 185: 291-297.
51. Yung AR, Phillips LJ, McGorry PD, McFarlane CA, Francey S, Harrigan S et al. Prediction of psychosis. A step towards indicated prevention of schizophrenia. Br J Psychiatry 1998; 172: 14-20.
52. van der Gaag M, Smit F, Bechdolf A, French P, Linszen DH, Yung AR et al. Preventing a first episode of psychosis: meta-analysis of randomized controlled prevention trials of 12 month and longer-term follow-ups. Schizophr Res 2013; 149: 56-62.
53. Fusar-Poli P, Bechdolf A, Taylor MJ, Bonoldi I, Carpenter WT, Yung AR et al. At risk for schizophrenic or affective psychoses? A meta-analysis of DSM/ICD diagnostic outcomes in individuals at high clinical risk. Schizophr Bull 2013; 39: 923-932.
54. Fusar-Poli P, Cappucciati M, Borgwardt S, Woods SW, Addington J, Nelson B et al. Heterogeneity of psychosis risk within individuals at clinical high risk: a metaanalytical stratification. JAMA Psychiatry 2016; 73: 113-120.
55. Lavoie S, Whitford TJ, Benninger F, Feucht M, Kim SW, Klier CM et al. Correlates of electroencephalographic resting states and erythrocyte membrane docosahexaenoic and eicosapentaenoic acid levels in individuals at ultra-high risk of psychosis. Austr N Z J Psychiatry 2016; 50: 56-63.
56. Smesny S, Milleit B, Schaefer MR, Hipler UC, Milleit C, Wiegand C et al. Effects of omega-3 PUFA on the vitamin E and glutathione antioxidant defense system in individuals at ultra-high risk of psychosis. Prostaglandins Leukot Essent Fatty Acids 2015; 101: 15-21.
57. Software M. MedCalc Statistical Software MedCalc Software bvba. Ostend: Belgium, 2014.
58. DeLong ER, DeLong DM, Clarke-Pearson DL. Comparing the areas under two or more correlated receiver operating characteristic curves: a nonparametric approach. Biometrics 1988; 44: 837-845.
59. Youden WJ. Index for rating diagnostic tests. Cancer 1950; 3: 32-35.
60. Zhou X-H, Obuchowski NA, McClish DK. Estimation and hypothesis testing in a single sample. In: Statistical Methods in Diagnostic Medicine. 2nd. Edition. John Wiley & Sons Inc: Hoboken, NJ, USA, 2011 pp 103-164.
61. Efron B. Better bootstrap confidence intervals. J Am Stat Assoc 1987; 82: 171-185.
62. Zhou X-H, Obuchowski NA, McClish DK. Statistical Methods in Diagnostic Medicine. John Wiley & Sons Inc: Hoboken, NJ, USA, 2002.
63. Deeks JJ, Altman DG. Diagnostic tests 4: likelihood ratios. Br Med J 2004; 329: 168-169.
64. Severens JL, Sonke G, Laheij RJ, Verbeek AL, De Vries Robbe. PF. Efficient diagnostic test sequence: applications of the probability-modifying plot. J Clin Epidemiol 2001; 54: 1228-1237.
65. Severens JL, de Vries Robbe PF, Verbeek AL. Optimizing diagnostic test sequences: the probability modifying plot. Methods Inf Med 1999; 38: 50-55.
66. Chuma J, Mahadun P. Predicting the development of schizophrenia in high-risk populations: systematic review of the predictive validity of prodromal criteria. Br J Psychiatry 2011; 199: 361-366.
67. Fusar-Poli P, Carpenter WT, Woods SW, McGlashan TH. Attenuated psychosis syndrome: ready for DSM-5.1? Annu Rev Clin Psychol 2014; 10: 155-192.
68. Correll CU, Hauser M, Auther AM, Cornblatt BA. Research in people with psychosis risk syndrome: a review of the current evidence and future directions. J Child Psychol Psychiatry 2010; 51: 390-431.
69. Schwarz E, Guest PC, Rahmoune H, Harris LW, Wang L, Leweke FM et al. Identification of a biological signature for schizophrenia in serum. Mol Psychiatry 2012; 17: 494-502.
70. Cotter J, Drake RJ, Bucci S, Firth J, Edge D, Yung AR. What drives poor functioning in the at-risk mental state? A systematic review. Schizophr Res 2014; 159: 267-277.