Seasonal spatial patterns of projected anthropogenic warming in complex terrain: a modeling study of the western US

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 48, Issue 7-8, 2017, Pages 2191-2213

  Rupp, David E ^a   Li, Sihan ^a   Mote, Philip W ^a   Shell, Karen M ^a   Massey, Neil ^b   Sparrow, Sarah N ^c   Wallom, David C H ^c   Allen, Myles R ^b,c  

^a OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

RCP 4.5; Regional climate modeling; Seasonal temperature projections; Western US

Indexed keywords

AIR TEMPERATURE; ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE; CLIMATE MODELING; COMPLEX TERRAIN; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; REGIONAL CLIMATE; REGIONAL PATTERN; SEASONAL VARIATION; SPATIAL VARIATION; SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TROPOSPHERE; WARMING;

UNITED STATES;

EID: 85016296821     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3200-x     Document Type: Article

References (61)

1. Barlage M et al (2010) Noah land surface model modifications to improve snowpack prediction in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. J Geophys Res 115:D22101. doi:10.1029/2009JD013470
2. Boulanger JP et al (2010) A Europe-South America network for climate change assessment and impact studies. Clim Change 98:307–329. doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9734-8
3. Bradley RS, Keimig FT, Diaz HF (2004) Projected temperature changes along the American cordillera and the planned GCOS network. Geophys Res Lett 31:L16210. doi:10.1029/2004GL020229
4. Christensen JH, Christensen OB (2007) A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate by the end of the century. Clim Change 81:7–30. doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9210-7
5. Cox PM, Betts RA, Bunton CB, Essery RLH, Rowntree PR, Smith J (1999) The impact of new land surface physics on the GCM simulation of climate and climate sensitivity. Clim Dyn 15:183–203
6. Daly C, Halbleib MD, Smith JI, Gibson WP, Doggett MK, Taylor GH, Curtis J, Pasteris PA (2008) Physiographically-sensitive mapping of temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States. Int J Climatol 28:2031–2064. doi:10.1002/joc.1688
7. Daly C, Conklin DR, Unsworth MH (2010) Local atmospheric decoupling in complex topography alters climate change impacts. Int J Climatol 30:1857–1864. doi:10.1002/joc.2007
8. Deser C, Philips AS, Bourdette V, Teng H (2012) Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability. Clim Dyn 38:527–546. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x
9. Deser C, Phillips AS, Alexander MA, Smoliak BV (2014) Projecting North American climate over the next 50 years: uncertainty due to internal variability. J Clim 27:2271–2296. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00451.1
10. Diffenbaugh NS, Pal JS, Trapp RJ, Giorgi F (2005) Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci 102:15774–15778. doi:10.1073/pnas.0506042102
11. Diffenbaugh NS, Ashfaq M, Scherer M (2011) Transient regional climate change: analysis of the summer climate response in a high-resolution, century-scale ensemble experiment over the continental United States. J Geophys Res Atmos 116:1–16. doi:10.1029/2011JD016458
12. Donlon CJ, Martin M, Stark J, Roberts-Jones J, Fiedler E, Wimmer W (2012) The operational sea surface temperature and sea ice analysis (OSTIA) system. Remote Sens Environ 116:140–158. doi:10.1016/j.rse.2010.10.017
13. Duffy PB, Arritt RW, Coquard J, Gutowski W, Han J, Iorio J, Kim J, Leung LR, Roads J, Zeledon E (2006) Simulations of present and future climates in the western United States with four nested regional climate models. J Clim 19:873–895. doi:10.1175/JCLI3669.1
14. Dulière V, Zhang Y, Salathé EP Jr (2011) Extreme precipitation and temperature over the U.S. Pacific Northwest: a comparison between observations, reanalysis data, and regional models. J Clim 24:1950–1964
15. Dulière V, Zhang Y, Salathé EP Jr (2013) Changes in twentieth-century extreme temperature and precipitation over the western United States based on observations and regional climate model simulations. J Clim 26:8556–8575. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00818.1
16. Giorgi F, Brodeur CS, Bates GT (1994) Regional climate change scenarios over the United States produced with a nested regional climate model. J Clim 7:375–399
17. Giorgi F, Hurrell JW, Marinucci MR, Beniston M (1997) Elevation dependency of the surface climate change signal: a model study. J Clim 10:288–296
18. Hawkins E, Sutton R (2009) The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90:1095–1107. doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1
19. Hawkins E, Sutton R (2011) The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change. Clim Dyn 37:407–418. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6
20. Hostetler SW, Alder JR, Allan AM (2011) Dynamically downscaled climate simulations over North America: Methods, evaluation, and supporting documentation for users: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2011-1238
21. Joshi MM, Gregory JM, Webb MJ, Sexton DM, Johns TC (2008) Mechanisms for the land/sea warming contrast exhibited by simulations of climate change. Clim Dyn 5:455–465
22. Kotlarski S, Bosshard T, Lüthi D, Pall P, Schär C (2012) Elevation gradients of European climate change in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. Clim Change 112:189–215. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0195-5
23. Letcher TW, Minder JR (2015) Characterization of the simulated regional snow albedo feedback using a regional climate model over complex terrain. J Clim 28:7576–7595. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0166.1
24. 2 simulations. J Clim 12:2031–2053
25. Leung LR, Qian Y (2003) The sensitivity of precipitation and snowpack simulations to model resolution via nesting in regions of complex terrain. J Hydrometeor 4:1025–1043
26. Leung LR, Qian Y, Bian X, Washington WM, Han J, Roads JO (2004) Mid-century ensemble regional climate change scenarios for the western United States. Clim Change 62:75–113. doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013692.50640.55
27. Li S, Mote PW, Rupp DE, Vickers D, Mera R, Allen MR (2015) Evaluation of a regional climate modeling effort for the western United States using a superensemble from weather@home. J Clim 28:7470–7488. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00808.1
28. Liang X-Z, Pan J, Zhu J, Kunkel KE, Wang JXL, Dai A (2006) Regional climate model downscaling of the U.S. summer climate and future change. J Geophys Res 111:D10108. doi:10.1029/2005JD006685
29. Livneh B, Xia Y, Mitchell KE, Ek MB, Lettenmaier DP (2010) Noah LSM snow model diagnostics and enhancements. J Hydrometeor 11:721–738. doi:10.1175/2009JHM1174.1
30. Lorenz EN (1963) Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J Atmos Sci 20:130–141
31. Lorenz DJ, DeWeaver ET (2007) Tropopause height and zonal wind response to global warming in the IPCC scenario integrations. J Geophys Res 112:D10119. doi:10.1029/2006JD008087
32. Mahoney K, Alexander M, Scott JD, Barsugli J (2013) High-resolution downscaled simulations of warm-season extreme precipitation events in the Colorado Front Range under past and future climates. J Clim 26:8671–8689. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00744.1
33. Maloney ED et al (2014) North American climate in cmip5 experiments: part iii: assessment of twenty-first-century projections. J Clim 27:2230–2270. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00273.1
34. Massey N, Jones R, Otto FEL, Aina T, Wilson S, Murphy JM, Hassel D, Yamazaki YH, Allen MR (2014) Weather@home—development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution. Q J R Meteorol Soc. doi:10.1002/qj.2455
35. Mearns LO et al (2013) Climate change projections of the North American regional climate change assessment program (NARCCAP). Clim Change 120:965–975. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0831-3
36. Meehl GA, Washington WM, Arblaster JM, Hu A, Teng H, Kay JE, Gettelman A, Lawrence DM, Sanderson BM, Strand WG (2013) Climate change projections in CESM1(CAM5) compared to CCSM4. J Clim 26:6287–6308. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00572.1
37. Meinshausen M et al (2011) The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Clim Change 109:213–241. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z
38. Mesinger MJ et al (2006) North American Regional Reanalysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90:993–1007. doi:10.1175/BAMS-87-3-343
39. Mote PW, Allen MR, Jones RG, Li S, Mera R, Rupp DE, Salahuddin A, Vickers D (2015) Superensemble regional climate modeling for the western US. Bull Am Meteorol Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00090.1
40. O’Brien TA, Sloan LC, Snyder MA (2011) Can ensembles of regional climate model simulations improve results from sensitivity studies? Clim Dyn 37:1111–1118. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0900-5
41. Parajka J, Dadson S, Lafon T, Essery R (2010) Evaluation of snow cover and depth simulated by a land surface model using detailed regional snow observations from Austria. J Geophys Res Atmos 115:D24117. doi:10.1029/2010JD014086
42. Pavelsky TM, Kapnick S, Hall A (2011) Accumulation and melt dynamics of snowpack from a multiresolution regional climate model in the central Sierra Nevada, California. J Geophys Res Atmos 116:D16115. doi:10.1029/2010JD015479
43. Pavelsky TM, Sobolowski S, Kapnick S, Barnes JB (2012) Changes in orographic precipitation patterns caused by a shift from snow to rain. Geophys Res Lett 39:L18706. doi:10.1029/2012GL052741
44. Pepin N et al (2015) Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world. Nat Clim Change 5:424–430. doi:10.1038/nclimate2563
45. Plummer DA, Caya D, Frigon A, Côté H, Giguère M, Paquin D, Biner S, Harvey R, de Elia R (2006) Climate and climate change over North America as simulated by the Canadian RCM. J Clim 19:3112–3132. doi:10.1175/JCLI3769.1
46. 2: zonal and seasonal estimates of the effect on the radiation energy balance and surface temperature. J Geophys Res 84(C8):4949–4958. doi:10.1029/JC084iC08p04949
47. Rasmussen R et al (2011) High-resolution coupled climate runoff simulations of seasonal snowfall over Colorado: a process study of current and warmer climate. J Clim 24:3015–3048. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3985.1
48. Rupp DE, Abatzoglou JT, Hegewisch KC, Mote PW (2013) Evaluation of CMIP5 20th century climate simulations for the Pacific Northwest USA. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:10884–10906. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50843
49. Salathé EP Jr, Steed R, Mass CF, Zahn P (2008) A high-resolution climate model for the United States Pacific Northwest: mesoscale feedbacks and local responses to climate change. J Clim 21:5708–5726
50. Salathé EP Jr, Leung LR, Qian Y, Zhang Y (2010) Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington. Clim Change 102:51–75. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9849-y
51. Seager R, Goddard L, Nakamura J, Henderson N, Lee DE (2014a) Dynamical causes of the 2010/11 Texas-Northern Mexican drought. J Hydrometeor 15:39–68. doi:10.1175/JHM-D-13-024.1
52. Seager R, Neelin D, Simpson I, Liu H, Henderson N, Shaw T, Kushnir Y, Ting M, Cook B (2014b) Dynamical and thermodynamical causes of large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle over North America in response to global warming. J Clim 27:7921–7948. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00153.1
53. Šeparović L, Alexandru A, Laprise R, Martynov A, Sushama L, Winger K, Tete K, Valin M (2013) Present climate and climate change over North America as simulated by the fifth-generation Canadian regional climate model. Clim Dyn 41:3167–3201. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1737-5
54. Sheffield J et al (2013) North American climate in CMIP5 experiments. Part 1: evaluation of historical simulations of continental and regional climatology. J Clim 26:9209–9245. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00592.1
55. Sutton RT, Dong B, Gregory JM (2007) Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations. Geophys Res Lett 34:L02701. doi:10.1029/2006GL028164
56. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D11-97300094.1
57. van der Linden P, Mitchell JFB (2009) ENSEMBLES: Climate change and its impacts: Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project, technical report, Met Off. Hadley Cent, Exeter
58. Wang J, Kotamarthi VR (2015) High-resolution dynamically downscaled projections of precipitation in the mid and late 21st century over North America. Earth’s Future 3:268–288. doi:10.1002/2015EF000304
59. Wang Z, Zeng X, Decker M (2010) Improving snow processes in the Noah land model. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 115:D20108. doi:10.1029/2009JD013761
60. Wang C, Jones R, Perry M, Johnson C, Clark P (2013) Using an ultrahigh-resolution regional climate model to predict local climatology. Q J R Meteorol Soc 139:1964–1976. doi:10.1002/qj.2081
61. Zhang Y, Dulière V, Mote P, Salathé EP Jr (2009) Evaluation of WRF and HadRM mesoscale climate simulations over the United States Pacific Northwest. J Clim 22:5511–5526