Present climate and climate change over North America as simulated by the fifth-generation Canadian regional climate model

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 41, Issue 11-12, 2013, Pages 3167-3201

  Šeparović, Leo ^a,b   Alexandru, Adelina ^a,b   Laprise, René ^a,b   Martynov, Andrey ^a,b   Sushama, Laxmi ^a,b   Winger, Katja ^a,b   Tete, Kossivi ^a,b   Valin, Michel ^a,b  

^a Centre ESCER Etude et Simulation du Climat à l'Echelle Regionale   (Canada)

^b UNIVERSITÉ DU QUÉBEC À MONTRÉAL   (Canada)

Author keywords

Bukovsky's regionalisation; Climate change projections over North America; CORDEX; CRCM5; Regional climate modelling

Indexed keywords

AIR TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; COMPUTER SIMULATION; GLOBAL WARMING; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); RADIATIVE FORCING; REGIONAL CLIMATE; REGIONALIZATION;

CANADA; NORTH AMERICA; PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (SUBTROPICAL);

EID: 84888054535     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1737-5     Document Type: Article

References (85)

1. Adams DK, Comrie AC (1997) The North American monsoon. Bull Am Meteor Soc 78: 2197-2213.
2. Arakawa A, Lamb WR (1977) Computational design of the basic dynamical processes of the UCLA general circulation model. In: General circulation models of the atmosphere (A78-10662 01-47). Academic Press Inc, New York, pp 173-265.
3. Arora VK, Boer GJ (2010) Uncertainties in the 20th century carbon budget associated with land use change. Global Chang Biol 16: 3327-3348.
4. Arora VK, Boer GJ, Christian JR, Curry CL, Denman KL, Zahariev K, Flato GM, Scinocca JF, Merryfield WJ, Lee WG (2009) The effect of terrestrial photosynthesis down-regulation on the 20th century carbon budget simulated with the CCCma earth system model. J Clim 22: 6066-6088.
5. Arora VK, Scinocca JF, Boer GJ, Christian JR, Denman KL, Flato GM, Kharin VV, Lee WG, Merryfield WJ (2011) Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative pathways of greenhouse gases. Geophys Res Lett 38: L05805.
6. Bélair S, Mailhot J, Girard C, Vaillancourt P (2005) Boundary-layer and shallow cumulus clouds in a medium-range forecast of a large-scale weather system. Mon Weather Rev 133: 1938-1960.
7. Benoit R, Côté J, Mailhot J (1989) Inclusion of a TKE boundary layer parameterization in the Canadian regional finite-element model. Mon Weather Rev 117: 1726-1750.
8. Brovkin V, Raddatz T, Reick CH, Clauseen M, Gayler V (2009) Global biogeophysical interactions between forest and climate. Geophys Res Let 36: L07405.
9. Bukovsky MS (2011) Masks for the Bukovsky regionalization of North America, Regional Integrated Sciences Collective, Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO. Downloaded 2012-07-03. http://www. narccap. ucar. edu/contrib/bukovsky/.
10. Castro CL, Pielke RA, Leoncini G (2005) Dynamical downscaling: an assessment of value added using a regional climate model. J Geophys Res 110: D05108. doi: 10. 1029/2004JD004721.
11. Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, Chen A, Gao X, Held I, Jones R, Kolli RK, Kwon W-T, Laprise R, Magaña Rueda V, Mearns L, Menéndez CG, Räisänen J, Rinke A, Sarr A, Whetton P (2007a) Regional climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
12. Christensen JH, Carter T, Rummukainen M, Amanatidis G (2007b) Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: the PRUDENCE project. Climatic Chang 81: 1-6.
13. Christian JR, Arora VK, Boer GJ, Curry CL, Zahariev K, Denman KL, Flato GM, Lee WG, Merryfield WJ, Roulet NT, Scinocca JF (2010) The global carbon cycle in the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM1): preindustrial control simulation. J Geophys Res 115: G03014.
14. Côté J, Gravel S, Méthot A, Patoine A, Roch M, Staniforth A (1998) The operational CMC-MRB global environmental multiscale (GEM) model. Part I: design considerations and formulation. Mon Weather Rev 126: 1373-1395.
15. Davies HC (1976) A lateral boundary formulation for multi-level prediction models. Q J R Meteorol Soc 102(432): 405-418.
16. de Elía R, Caya D, Côté H, Frigon A, Biner S, Giguère M, Paquin D, Harvey R, Plummer D (2008) Evaluation of uncertainties in the CRCM-simulated North American climate. Clim Dyn 30: 113-132.
17. De Sales F, Xue Y (2011) Assessing the dynamic downscaling ability over South America using the Intensity-Scale verification technique. Int J Climatol 31: 1205-1221.
18. Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137: 553-597. doi: 10. 1002/qj. 828.
19. Delage Y (1997) Parameterising sub-grid scale vertical transport in atmospheric models under statically stable conditions. Boundary-Layer Meteor 82: 23-48.
20. Delage Y, Girard C (1992) Stability functions correct at the free convection limit and consistent for both the surface and Ekman layers. Boundary-Layer Meteor 58: 19-31.
21. Dettinger MD, Ralph FM, Hughes M, Das T, Neiman P, Cox D, Estes G, Reynolds D, Hartman R, Cayan D, Jones L (2012) Design and quantification of an extreme winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California. Nat Hazards 60: 1085-1111. doi: 10. 1007/s11069-011-9894-5.
22. Di Luca A, de Elía R, Laprise R (2012a) Potential for added value in precipitation simulated by high-resolution nested regional climate models and observations. Clim Dyn 38: 1229-1247.
23. Di Luca A, de Elía R, Laprise R (2012b) Potential for added value in temperature simulated by high-resolution nested RCMs in present climate and in the climate change signal. Clim Dyn. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-012-1384-2.
24. Di Luca A, de Elía R, Laprise R (2012c) Potential for small scale added value of RCM's downscaled climate change signal. Clim Dyn. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-012-1415-z.
25. Duffy PB, Arritt RW, Coquard J, Gutowski W, Han J, Iorio J, Kim J, Leung L-R, Roads J, Zeledon E (2006) Simulations of present and future climates in the western United States with four nested regional climate models. J Clim 19: 873-895. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI3669. 1.
26. Feser F (2006) Enhanced detectability of added value in limited-area model results separated into different spatial scales. Mon Weather Rev 134: 2180-2190.
27. Gent PR, Bryan FO, Danabasoglu G, Doney SC, Holland WR, Large WG, McWilliams JC (1998) The NCAR climate system model global ocean component. J Climate 11: 1287-1306.
28. Giorgetta MA, Roeckner E, Mauritsen T, Stevens B, Crueger T, Esch M, Rast S, Kornblueh L, Schmidt H, Kinne S, Möbis B, Krismer T, Reick C, Raddatz T, Gayler V (2012) The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6-model description. http://www. mpimet. mpg. de/en/science/models/echam. html. Accessed 30 July 2012.
29. Giorgi F, Mearns LO (1999) Introduction to special section: regional climate modeling revisited. J Geophys Res 104(D6): 6335-6352.
30. Giorgi F, Jones C, Asrar G (2009) Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework. WMO Bull 58(3): 175-183.
31. Hernández-Díaz L, Laprise R, Sushama L, Martynov A, Winger K, Dugas B (2012) Climate simulation over CORDEX Africa domain using the fifth-generation Canadian regional climate model (CRCM5). Clim Dyn. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-012-1387-z.
32. Huffman GJ, Adler RF, Morrissey MM, Curtis S, Joyce R, McGavock B, Susskind J (2001) Global precipitation at one-degree daily resolution from multi-satellite observations. J Hydrometeor 2: 36-50.
33. Huffman GJ, Adler RF, Bolvin DT, Gu G, Nelkin EJ, Bowman KP, Hong Y, Stocker EF, Wolff DB (2007) The TRMM multisatellite precipitation analysis (TMPA): quasi-global, multiyear, combined-sensor precipitation estimates at fine scales. J Hydrometeor 8: 38-55.
34. Jungclaus JH, Keenlyside N, Botzet M, Haak H, Luo JJ, Latif M, Marotzke J, Mikolajewicz U, Roeckner E (2006) Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. J Clim 19: 3952-3972.
35. Kain JS, Fritsch JM (1990) A one-dimensional entraining/detraining plume model and application in convective parameterization. J Atmos Sci 47: 2784-2802.
36. Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, Yang SK, Hnilo JJ, Fiorino M, Potter GL (2002) NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). B Am Meteorol Soc 83: 1631-1643.
37. Kuo HL (1965) On formation and intensification of tropical cyclones through latent heat release by cumulus convection. J Atmos Sci 22: 40-63.
38. Laprise R (1992) The Euler equation of motion with hydrostatic pressure as independent coordinate. Mon Weather Rev 120: 197-207.
39. Laprise R (2005) A foreword to "high-resolution climate modelling: assessment, added value and applications". In: Bärring, Laprise R (ed) High-resolution climate modelling: assessment, added value and applications extended abstracts of a WMO/WCRP-sponsored regional-scale climate modelling workshop, Lund, Sweden, 29 March-2 April 2004. Lund University electronic reports in physical geography, pp 12-16 http://www. nateko. lu. se/ELibrary/Lerpg/5/Lerpg5Article. pdf.
40. Laprise R (2008) Regional climate modeling. J Comput Phys 227(7): 3641-3666.
41. Laprise R, de Elía R, Biner S, Lucas-Picher P, Diaconescu E, Leduc M, Alexandru A, Šeparović L (2008) Challenging some tenets of regional climate modeling. Meteor Atmos Phys 100(1-4): 3-22.
42. Laprise R, Hernández-Díaz L, Tete K, Sushama L, Šeparović L, Martynov A, Winger K, Valin M (2013) Climate projections over CORDEX Africa domain using the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). Clim Dyn. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-012-1651-2.
43. Leung LR, Qian Y, Bian X (2003) Hydroclimate of the western United States based on observations and regional climate simulation of 1981-2000. Part I: seasonal statistics. J Climate 16: 1892-1911.
44. Leung LR, Qian Y, Bian X, Washington WM, Han J, Roads JO (2004) Mid-century ensemble regional climate change scenarios for the western United States. Clim Chang 62: 75-113.
45. Li J, Barker HW (2005) A radiation algorithm with correlated-k distribution. Part I: local thermal equilibrium. J Atmos Sci 62: 286-309.
46. Marsland SJ, Haak H, Jungclaus JH, Latif M, Roeske F (2003) The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates. Ocean Model 5: 91-127.
47. Martynov A, Sushama L, Laprise R, Winger K, Dugas B (2012) Interactive lakes in the Canadian regional climate model, version 5: the role of lakes in the regional climate of North America. Tellus A 64: 16226. doi: 10. 3402/tellusa. v64i0. 16226.
48. Martynov A, Laprise R, Sushama L, Winger K, Šeparović L, Dugas B (2013) Reanalysis-driven climate simulation over CORDEX North America domain using the Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5: model performance evaluation. Clim Dyn. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-013-1778-9.
49. Masson V, Champeaux J-L, Chauvin F, Meriguet C, Lacaze R (2003) A global database of land surface parameters at 1-km resolution in meteorological and climate models. J Climate 16: 1261-1282.
50. McFarlane NA (1987) The effect of orographically excited gravity-wave drag on the circulation of the lower stratosphere and troposphere. J Atmos Sci 44: 1175-1800.
51. McGregor JL (1997) Regional climate modeling. Meteor Atmos Phys 63(1): 105-117.
52. Mearns LO, Gutowski WJ, Jones R, Leung L-Y, McGinnis S, Nunes AMB, Qian Y (2009) A regional climate change assessment program for North America. EOS 90: 311-312.
53. Meinshausen M, Smith S et al. (2011) The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extension from 1765 to 2500. Clim Chang (Special Issue on RCPs).
54. Mironov D, Heise E, Kourzeneva E, Ritter B, Schneider N, Terzhevik A (2010) Implementation of the lake parameterisation scheme FLake into the numerical weather prediction model COSMO. Boreal Environ Res 15: 218-230.
55. Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Climatol 25: 693-712. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 1181.
56. Monette A, Sushama L, Khaliq MN, Laprise R, Roy R (2012) Projected changes to precipitation extremes for Northeast Canadian watersheds using a multi-RCM ensemble. J Geophys Res 117(D13): D13106.
57. Nikulin G, Jones C, Samuelsson P, Giorgi F, Sylla MB, Asrar G, Büchner M, Cerezo-Mota R, Christensen OB, Déqué M, Fernandez J, Hänsler A, van Meijgaard E, Sushama L (2012) Precipitation climatology in an ensemble of CORDEX-Africa regional climate simulations. J Clim. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI-D-11-00375. 1.
58. Pierce DW, Barnett TP, Santer BD, Gleckler PJ (2009) Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies. Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 106(21): 8441-8446.
59. Plummer DA, Caya D, Frigon A, Côté H, Giguère M, Paquin D, Biner S, Harvey R, de Elía R (2006) Climate and climate change over North America as simulated by the Canadian RCM. J Clim 19: 3112-3132.
60. Prömmel K, Geyer B, Jones JM, Widmann M (2010) Evaluation of the skill and added value of a reanalysis-driven regional simulation for Alpine temperature. Int J Climatol 30: 760-773. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 1916.
61. Roeckner E, Baeuml G, Bonaventura L, Brokopf R, Esch M, Giorgetta M, Hagemann S, Kirchner I, Kornblueh L, Manzini E, Rhodin A, Schlese U, Schulzweida U, Tompkins A (2003) The general circulation model ECHAM5. Part I: Model description. Report 349, Max-Planck-Institut for Meteorology, Hamburg.
62. Rummukainen M (2010) State-of-the-art with regional climate models. WIREs Clim Chang 1(1): 82-96.
63. Salathe EP Jr, Steed R, Mass CF, Zahn PH (2008) A high-resolution climate model for the U. S. Pacific Northwest: mesoscale feedbacks and local responses to climate change. J Clim 21: 5708-5726.
64. Scinocca JF, McFarlane NA, Lazare M, Li J, Plummer D (2008) Technical note: the CCCma third generation AGCM and its extension into the middle atmosphere. Atmos Chem Phys 8: 7055-7074.
65. Stevens B, Gonzales-Rouco JF, Beltrami H (2008) North American climate of the last millennium: underground temperatures and model comparison. J Geophys Lett 113: F01008, 15.
66. Sturm M, Holmgren J, König M, Morris K (1997) The thermal conductivity of seasonal snow. J Glaciol 43: 26-41.
67. Sundqvist H, Berge E, Kristjansson JE (1989) Condensation and cloud parameterization studies with a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model. Mon Weather Rev 117: 1641-1657.
68. Sushama L, Laprise R, Caya D, Frigon A, Slivitzky M (2006) Canadian RCM projected climate-change signal and its sensitivity to model errors. Int J Climotol 26: 2141-2159.
69. Takle ES, Gutowski WJ, Arritt RW, Pan Z, Anderson CJ, da Silva RR, Caya D, Chen S-C, Giorgi F, Christensen JH, Hong S-Y, Juang H-MH, Katzfey J, Lapenta WM, Laprise R, Liston GE, Lopez P, McGregor J, Pielke RA, Roads JO (1999) Project to intercompare regional climate simulations (PIRCS): description and initial results. J Geophys Res 104(D16): 19443-19461.
70. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteor Soc 93: 485-498.
71. Vera C, Higgins W, Amador J, Ambrizzi T, Garreaud R, Gochis D, Gutzler D, Lettenmaier D, Marengo J, Mechoso CR, Nogues-Paegle J, Silva Dias L, Zhang C (2006) Toward a unified view of the American monsoon systems. J Clim 19: 4977-5000.
72. Verseghy DL (1991) CLASS-a Canadian land surface scheme for GCMs: I. Soil model. Int J Climatol 11: 111-133.
73. Verseghy DL (2009) CLASS-The Canadian land surface scheme (Version 3. 4)-technical documentation (version 1. 1). Internal report, Climate Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada, 183 pp.
74. von Salzen K, McFarlane NA, Lazare M (2005) The role of shallow convection in the water and energy cycles of the atmosphere. Clim Dyn 25: 671-688.
75. von Storch H, Langenberg H, Feser F (2000) A spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling purposes. Mon Weather Rev 128(10): 3664-3673.
76. Wang Y, Leung LR, McGregor JL, Lee DK, Wang WC, Ding YH, Kimura F (2004) Regional climate modeling: progress, challenges and prospects. J Meteor Soc Japan 82: 1599-1628.
77. Wetzel P, Winguth A, Maier-Reimer E (2005) Sea-to-air CO2 fluxes from 1948 to 2003. Global Biogeochem Cycles 19: GB2005.
78. Willmott CJ, Matsuura K (1995) Smart interpolation of annually averaged air temperature in the United States. J App Meteorol 34: 2577-2586.
79. Winterfeldt J, Weisse R (2009) Assessment of value added for surface marine wind speed obtained from two regional climate models. Mon Weather Rev 137: 2955-2965. doi: 10. 1175/2009MWR2704. 1.
80. Yang D, Kane D, Zhang Z (2005) Bias corrections of long-term (1973-2004) daily precipitation data over the northern regions. J Geophys Lett 32: L19501. doi: 10. 1029/2005GL024057.
81. Yeh KS, Côté J, Gravel S, Méthot A, Patoine A, Roch M, Staniforth A (2002) The CMC-MRB global environmental multiscale (GEM) model. Part III: nonhydrostatic formulation. Mon Weather Rev 130: 339-356.
82. Zadra A, Roch M, Laroche S, Charron M (2003) The subgrid-scale orographic blocking parameterization of the GEM Model. Atmos-Ocean 41: 155-170.
83. Zadra A, Caya D, Côté J, Dugas B, Jones C, Laprise R, Winger K, Caron L-P (2008) The next Canadian regional c1imate model. Phys Canada 64: 74-83.
84. Zadra A, McTaggart-Cowan R, Roch M (2012) Recent changes to the orographic blocking. Seminar presentation, RPN, Dorval, Canada, 30 March 2012. http://collaboration. cmc. ec. gc. ca/science/rpn/SEM/dossiers/2012/seminaires/2012-03-30/Seminar_2012-03-30_Ayrton-Zadra. pdf. Accessed 19 July 2012.
85. Zhang GJ, McFarlane NA (1995) Sensitivity of climate simulations to the parameterization of cumulus convection in the CCC-GCM. Atmos-Ocean 3: 407-446.