Risk of global spread of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) via the air transport network

Journal of Travel Medicine

Volumn 23, Issue 6, 2016, Pages

  Gardner, Lauren M ^a   Chughtai, Abrar A ^b   MacIntyre, C Raina ^b,c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES   (Australia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES   (Australia)

^c ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Air travel; MERS CoV; Network modeling; Risk

Indexed keywords

AIRPORT; ARTICLE; AVIATION; BANGLADESH; CASE REPORT; CLINICAL ARTICLE; EGYPT; EMERGENCY HEALTH SERVICE; HUMAN; INDIA; MIDDLE EAST RESPIRATORY SYNDROME CORONAVIRUS; NONHUMAN; PAKISTAN; RISK ASSESSMENT; SOUTH KOREA; TURKEY (REPUBLIC); COMMUNICABLE DISEASE CONTROL; CORONAVIRUS INFECTIONS; EPIDEMIC; HEALTH; MIDDLE EAST; PROCEDURES; STATISTICS AND NUMERICAL DATA; TRANSMISSION; TRAVEL;

AIRPORTS; AVIATION; COMMUNICABLE DISEASE CONTROL; CORONAVIRUS INFECTIONS; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; GLOBAL HEALTH; HUMANS; MIDDLE EAST; MIDDLE EAST RESPIRATORY SYNDROME CORONAVIRUS; RISK ASSESSMENT; TRAVEL;

EID: 85015354814     PISSN: 11951982     EISSN: 17088305     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taw063     Document Type: Article

References (32)

1. World Health Organisation (WHO). Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Vol 2016: World Health Organization, 2016
2. World Health Organisation (WHO). Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) fact sheet. Vol 2016: World Health Organization, 2016
3. World Health Organisation (WHO). Outbreaks and Emergencies. MERS-CoV in Republic of Korea at a Glance as of 29 July 2015. Vol 2016: World Health Organization, 2016
4. IATA (IATA). Air passenger market analysis, December 2015. http:// www.iata.org/whatwedo/Documents/economics/passenger-analysisdec-2015.pdf
5. Gardner LM, Rey D, Heywood AE, et al. A scenario-based evaluation of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and the Hajj. Risk Anal 2014; 34: 1391-400
6. MacIntyre CR. The discrepant epidemiology of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Environ Syst Dec 2014; 34: 383-90
7. Gardner LM, MacIntyre CR. Unanswered questions about the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). BMC Res Notes 2014; 7: 1-5
8. Chan JF, Lau SK, To KK, et al. Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: another zoonotic betacoronavirus causing SARS-like disease. Clin Microbiol Rev 2015; 28: 465-522
9. Muller MA, Corman VM, Jores J, et al. MERS coronavirus neutralizing antibodies in camels, Eastern Africa, 1983-1997. Emerg Infect Dis 2014; 20: 2093-5
10. Reusken CB, Haagmans BL, Muller MA, et al. Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus neutralising serum antibodies in dromedary camels: a comparative serological study. Lancet Infect Dis 2013; 13: 859-66
11. Hemida MG, Chu DK, Poon LL, et al.MERS coronavirus in dromedary camel herd, Saudi Arabia. Emerg Infect Dis 2014; 20: 1231-4
12. Chu DK, Poon LL, Gomaa MM, et al. MERS coronaviruses in dromedary camels, Egypt. Emerg Infect Dis 2014; 20: 1049-53
13. Corman V, Jores J, Meyer B, et al. Antibodies against MERS coronavirus in dromedary camels, Kenya, 1992-2013. Emerg Infect Dis 2014. 20: 1319-22
14. Alraddadi B, Watson J, Almarashi A, et al. Risk factors for primary middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus illness in humans, Saudi Arabia, 2014. Emerg Infect Dis 2016; 22: 49-55
15. Azhar E, El-Kafrawy S, Farraj S, et al. Evidence for camel-to-human transmission of MERS coronavirus. N Engl J Med 2014; 370: 2499-505
16. Hemida MG, Al-Naeem A, Perera RA, et al. Lack of middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus transmission from infected camels. Emerg Infect Dis 2015; 21: 699-701
17. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). Severe respiratory disease associated with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) 20th update
18. Chowell G, Blumberg S, Simonsen L, et al. Synthesizing data and models for the spread of MERS-CoV, 2013: key role of index cases and hospital transmission. Epidemics 2014; 9: 40-51
19. Gardner L, Sarkar S. A global airport-based risk model for the spread of dengue infection via the air transport network. PLoS One 2013; 8: e72129
20. Gardner LM, Fajardo D, Waller ST, et al. A predictive spatial model to quantify the risk of air-travel-associated dengue importation into the United States and Europe. J Trop Med 2012; 2012: 103679
21. Gardner L, Sarkar S. The risk of dengue spread from the Philippines after typhoon Haiyan. Transport Res Rec 2015; 2501: 25-30
22. Gardner L, Fajardo D, Waller S. Inferring infection-spreading links in an air traffic network. Transport Res Rec 2012; 2300: 13-21
23. Bogoch II, CreatoreMI, CetronMS, et al. Assessment of the potential for international dissemination of ebola virus via commercial air travel during the 2014 West African outbreak. Lancet 2014; 385: 29-35
24. Khan K, Sears J, Hu VW, et al. Potential for the international spread of middle east respiratory syndrome in association with mass gatherings in Saudi Arabia. PLoS Curr 2013; 5: 7
25. Poletto C, Pelat C, Lévy-Bruhl D, et al. Assessment of the middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) epidemic in theMiddle East and risk of international spread using a novel maximum likelihood analysis approach. Euro Surveill 2014; 19: pii20824
26. International Air Transport Association (IATA). Passenger intelligence services (PAXIS). 2016. http://www.iata.org/services/statistics/ intelligence/paxis/Pages/index.aspx
27. FluTrackers. 2012-2015 case list of MOH/who novel coronavirus MERS NCoV announced cases. 2015. https://flutrackers.com/forum/ forum/novel-coronavirus-ncov-mers-2012-2014/146270-2012-2016-case-list-of-moh-who-novel-coronavirus-mers-ncov-announced-cases
28. World Health Organisation (WHO). Coronavirus infections. Disease outbreak news. Vol 2016. WHO, 2016
29. Kant L. MERS may not be SARS; but India is still vulnerable. Indian J Med Res 2015; 142: 103-5
30. Breban R, Riou J, Fontanet A. Interhuman transmissibility of middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus: estimation of pandemic risk. Lancet 2013; 382: 694-9
31. Premila Devi J, Noraini W, Norhayati R, et al. Laboratory-confirmed case of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection in Malaysia: preparedness and response, April 2014. Euro Surveill 19: 2014
32. NishiuraH, ChowellG, SaitohM. Assessing the risk of observingmultiple generations ofmiddle east respiratory syndrome (MERS) cases given an imported case. Euro Surveil 2015; 20: 21181