Global socioeconomic material stocks rise 23-fold over the 20th century and require half of annual resource use

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volumn 114, Issue 8, 2017, Pages 1880-1885

  Krausmann, Fridolin ^a   Wiedenhofer, Dominik ^a   Lauk, Christian ^a   Haas, Willi ^a   Tanikawa, Hiroki ^b   Fishman, Tomer ^b,c   Miatto, Alessio ^b   Schandl, Heinz ^d   Haberl, Helmut ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF KLAGENFURT   (Austria)

^b NAGOYA UNIVERSITY   (Japan)

^c Yale School of the Environment   (United States)

^d CSIRO   (Australia)

Author keywords

Carbon emission intensity; Circular economy; Manufactured capital; Material flow accounting; Socioeconomic metabolism

Indexed keywords

CARBON DIOXIDE;

ARTICLE; CARBON FOOTPRINT; CLIMATE CHANGE; DEVICE MATERIAL; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; ENERGY; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RECYCLING; RESOURCE MANAGEMENT; SOCIOECONOMICS;

EID: 85013276225     PISSN: 00278424     EISSN: 10916490     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1613773114     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Steffen W, et al. (2015) Sustainability. Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science 347(6223):1259855.
2. UNEP (2016) Global Material Flows and Resource Productivity. Assessment Report for the UNEP International Resource Panel (United Nations Environment Programme, Paris).
3. Chen W-Q, Graedel TE (2015) In-use product stocks link manufactured capital to natural capital. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112(20):6265-6270.
4. Pauliuk S, Müller DB (2014) The role of in-use stocks in the social metabolism and in climate change mitigation. Glob Environ Change 24:132-142.
5. Liu G, Bangs CE, Müller DB (2012) Stock dynamics and emission pathways of the global aluminium cycle. Nat Clim Chang 3(4):338-342.
6. Müller DB, et al. (2013) Carbon emissions of infrastructure development. Environ Sci Technol 47(20):11739-11746.
7. Fischer-Kowalski M, et al. (2011) Methodology and indicators of economy-wide material flow accounting: State of the art and reliability across sources. J Ind Ecol 15(6):855-876.
8. Weisz H, Suh S, Graedel TE (2015) Industrial ecology: The role of manufactured capital in sustainability. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112(20):6260-6264.
9. Krausmann F, et al. (2009) Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century. Ecol Econ 68(10):2696-2705.
10. Schaffartzik A, et al. (2014) The global metabolic transition: Regional patterns and trends of global material flows, 1950-2010. Glob Environ Change 26:87-97.
11. Haas W, Krausmann F, Wiedenhofer D, Heinz M (2015) How circular is the global economy? An assessment of material flows, waste production, and recycling in the European Union and the world in 2005. J Ind Ecol 19(5):765-777.
12. Mathews JA, Tan H (2016) Circular economy: Lessons from China. Nature 531(7595):440-442.
13. Moriguchi Y (2009) Recent developments in material cycle policies. J Ind Ecol 13(1):8-10.
14. Stahel WR (2016) The circular economy. Nature 531(7595):435-438.
15. OECD (2015) Material Resources, Productivity and the Environment (OECD, Paris).
16. Wiedenhofer D, Steinberger JK, Eisenmenger N, Haas W (2015) Maintenance and expansion: Modeling material stocks and flows for residential buildings and transportation networks in the EU25. J Ind Ecol 19(4):538-551.
17. O'Neill DW (2015) What should be held steady in a steady-state economy?: Interpreting Daly's definition at the national level. J Ind Ecol 19(4):552-563.
18. Chen W-Q, Graedel TE (2012) Anthropogenic cycles of the elements: A critical review. Environ Sci Technol 46(16):8574-8586.
19. Graedel TE, Cao J (2010) Metal spectra as indicators of development. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(49):20905-20910.
20. Lauk C, Haberl H, Erb K-H, Gingrich S, Krausmann F (2012) Global socioeconomic carbon stocks in long-lived products 1900-2008. Environ Res Lett 7(3):34023.
21. Liu G, Müller DB (2013) Centennial evolution of aluminum in-use stocks on our aluminized planet. Environ Sci Technol 47(9):4882-4888.
22. Müller E, Hilty LM, Widmer R, Schluep M, Faulstich M (2014) Modeling metal stocks and flows: A review of dynamic material flow analysis methods. Environ Sci Technol 48(4):2102-2113.
23. Pauliuk S, Wang T, Müller DB (2013) Steel all over the world: Estimating in-use stocks of iron for 200 countries. Resour Conserv Recy 71:22-30.
24. Fishman T, Schandl H, Tanikawa H (2016) Stochastic analysis and forecasts of the patterns of speed, acceleration, and levels of material stock accumulation in society. Environ Sci Technol 50(7):3729-3737.
25. Fishman T, Schandl H, Tanikawa H, Walker P, Krausmann F (2014) Accounting for the material stock of nations. J Ind Ecol 18(3):407-420.
26. Tanikawa H, Fishman T, Okuoka K, Sugimoto K (2015) The weight of society over time and space: A comprehensive account of the construction material stock of Japan, 1945-2010. J Ind Ecol 19(5):778-791.
27. Pauliuk S, Hertwich EG (2015) Socioeconomic metabolism as paradigm for studying the biophysical basis of human societies. Ecol Econ 119:83-93.
28. Schiller G, Müller F, Ortlepp R (2016) Mapping the anthropogenic stock in Germany: Metabolic evidence for a circular economy. Resour Conserv Recy, 10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.08.007.
29. Seto KC, Güneralp B, Hutyra LR (2012) Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 109(40):16083-16088.
30. Glöser S, Soulier M, Tercero Espinoza LA (2013) Dynamic analysis of global copper flows. Global stocks, postconsumer material flows, recycling indicators, and uncertainty evaluation. Environ Sci Technol 47(12):6564-6572.
31. Harrison M (2000) The Economics of World War II: Six Great Powers in International Comparison (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK).
32. Graedel TE, et al. (2011) What do we know about metal recycling rates? J Ind Ecol 15(3):355-366.
33. Oldenziel R, Weber H (2013) Introduction: Reconsidering recycling. Contemp Eur Hist 22(3):347-370.
34. Zimring CA (2009) Cash for Your Trash: Scrap Recycling in America (Rutgers Univ Press, New Brunswick, NJ).
35. Hoornweg D, Bhada-Tata P, Kennedy C (2013) Environment: Waste production must peak this century. Nature 502(7473):615-617.
36. Daigo I, Iwata K, Ohkata I, Goto Y (2015) Macroscopic evidence for the hibernating behavior of materials Stock. Environ Sci Technol 49(14):8691-8696.
37. UNEP (2011) Decoupling Natural Resource Use and Environmental Impacts from Economic Growth (United Nations Environmment Programme, Nairobi).
38. IEA (2015) World Energy Statistics and Balances 2015 (International Energy Agency, Paris).
39. Müller DB, Wang T, Duval B (2011) Patterns of iron use in societal evolution. Environ Sci Technol 45(1):182-188.
40. Müller DB, Wang T, Duval B, Graedel TE (2006) Exploring the engine of anthropogenic iron cycles. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103(44):16111-16116.
41. IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds Edenhofer O, et al. (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK).
42. Allwood JM, Cullen JM, Milford RL (2010) Options for achieving a 50% cut in industrial carbon emissions by 2050. Environ Sci Technol 44(6):1888-1894.
43. Strasser S (2000) Waste and Want: A Social History of Trash (Holt, New York).
44. Hertwich EG, et al. (2015) Integrated life-cycle assessment of electricity-supply scenarios confirms global environmental benefit of low-carbon technologies. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112(20):6277-6282.
45. Maddison A (2013) The Maddison-Project, 2013 version. Available at: www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/home.htm. Accessed December 15, 2015.
46. Boden TA, Marland G, Andres RJ (2016) Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, TN).