Centuries of thermal sea-level rise due to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volumn 114, Issue 4, 2017, Pages 657-662

  Zickfeld, Kirsten ^a   Solomon, Susan ^b   Gilford, Daniel M ^b  

^a SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

^b MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Greenhouse gases; Montreal protocol; Reversibility; Sea level rise

Indexed keywords

CHLOROFLUOROCARBON; CHLOROFLUOROHYDROCARBON;

ARTICLE; ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE; EXHAUST GAS; GREENHOUSE GAS; HUMAN ACTIVITIES; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SEA LEVEL RISE;

EID: 85010781679     PISSN: 00278424     EISSN: 10916490     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1612066114     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, eds Stocker TF, Qin D (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK).
2. Solomon S, et al. (2010) Persistence of climate changes due to a range of greenhouse gases. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(43):18354-18359.
3. Bouttes N, Gregory JM, Lowe JA (2013) The reversibility of sea level rise. J Clim 26:2502-2513.
4. United Nations (2015) Adoption of the Paris agreement. Framework Convention on Climate Change. Available at https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09.pdf. Accessed December 22, 2016.
5. Matthews HD, Caldeira K (2008) Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions. Geophys Res Lett 35:L04705.
6. Plattner GK, et al. (2008) Long-term climate commitments projected with climate-carbon cycle models. J Clim 21:2721-2751.
7. Solomon S, Plattner G-K, Knutti R, Friedlingstein P (2009) Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(6):1704-1709.
8. 2 and surface temperature perturbations. J Clim 22:2501-2511.
9. Zickfeld K, et al. (2013) Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: an EMIC intercomparison. J Clim 26:5782-5809.
10. Lowe JS, et al. (2009) How difficult is it to recover from dangerous levels of global warming? Environ Res Lett 4:1-9.
11. Frölicher TL, Joos F (2010) Reversible and irreversible impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in multi-century projections with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Clim Dyn 35:1439-1459.
12. Gillett NP, Arora V, Zickfeld K, Marshall S, Merryfield WJ (2011) Ongoing climate change following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions. Nat Geosci 4:83-87.
13. Zickfeld K, Arora VK, Gillett NP (2012) Is the climate response to carbon emissions path dependent? Geophys Res Lett 39:L05703.
14. 2 emissions. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(49):20616-20621.
15. Ramanathan V, Xu Y (2010) The Copenhagen Accord for limiting global warming: criteria, constraints, and available avenues. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(18):8055-8062.
16. Shindell D, et al. (2012) Simultaneously mitigating near-term climate change and improving human health and food security. Science 335(6065):183-189.
17. Hu A, Xu Y, Tebaldi C, Washington WM, Ramanathan V (2013) Mitigation of short lived climate pollutants slows sea level rise. Nat Clim Chang 3:730-734.
18. Rahmstorf S (2007) A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise. Science 315(5810):368-370.
19. Vermeer M, Rahmstorf S (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(51):21527-21532.
20. 2. Geophys Res Lett 24:405-408.
21. Joos F, et al. (2013) Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis. Atmos Chem Phys 13:2793-2825.
22. Myhre G, et al. (2013) Anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, eds Stocker TF, Qin D (Cambridge Univ Press, New York), 659-740.
23. Rigby M, et al. (2014) Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing. Geophys Res Lett 41:2623-2630.
24. Velders GJM, Fahey DW, Daniel JS, McFarland M, Andersen SO (2009) The large contribution of projected HFC emissions to future climate forcing. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(27):10949-10954.
25. Velders GJM, Andersen SO, Daniel JS, Fahey DW, McFarland M (2007) The importance of the Montreal Protocol in protecting climate. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104(12):4814-4819.
26. Newman PA, et al. (2009) What would have happened to the ozone layer if chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been regulated? Atmos Chem Phys 9:2113-2128.
27. Garcia RR, Kinnison DE, Marsh DR (2012) "World avoided" simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. J Geophys Res 117:D23303.
28. Kuhlbrodt T, Gregory JM (2012) Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change. Geophys Res Lett 9:L18608.
29. Frölicher TL, Paynter DJ (2015) Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales. Environ Res Lett 10:75002.
30. 2 concentration changes. Environ Res Lett 7:024013.
31. Zickfeld K, MacDougall A, Matthews HD (2016) On the proportionality between global temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions during periods of net negative CO2 emissions. Environ Res Lett 11:055006.
32. National Research Council (2015) Climate Intervention: Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration (National Academies Press, Washington, DC).
33. Tokarska KB, Zickfeld K (2015) The effectiveness of net negative carbon dioxide emissions in reversing anthropogenic climate change. Environ Res Lett 10:094013.
34. Levermann A, et al. (2013) The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110(34):13745-13750.
35. Mengel M, et al. (2016) Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 113(10):2597-2602.
36. Weaver AJ, et al. (2001) The UVic Earth System Climate Model: model description, climatology, and applications to past, present and future climates. Atmos Ocean 39:361-428.
37. Eby M, et al. (2013) Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity. Clim Past 9:1111-1140.
38. Arora V, et al. (2013) Carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth system models. J Clim 26:5289-5314.
39. Meinshausen M, et al. (2011) The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Clim Change 109:213-241.
40. Prinn RG, et al. (2000) A history of chemically and radiatively important gases in air deduced from ALE/GAGE/AGAGE. J Geophys Res 105:17,751-17,792.