Regional flood-frequency reconstruction for Kullu district, Western Indian Himalayas

Journal of Hydrology

Volumn 546, Issue , 2017, Pages 140-149

  Ballesteros Canovas J A ^a   Trappmann, D ^a   Shekhar, M ^b   Bhattacharyya, A ^b   Stoffel, M ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF GENEVA   (Switzerland)

^b BIRBAL SAHNI INSTITUTE OF PALAEOBOTANY   (India)

Author keywords

Flood frequency; Hazard; Indian Himalayas; Kullu district; Past food; Tree rings

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; FORESTRY; HAZARDS; TREES (MATHEMATICS);

ADAPTATION POLICIES; CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION; FLOOD FREQUENCY; HIMALAYAS; KULLU DISTRICT; REGIONAL FLOOD FREQUENCIES; STATISTICAL APPROACH; TREE RINGS;

FLOODS;

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; FLOOD FREQUENCY; HAZARD ASSESSMENT; HYDRAULIC CONDUCTIVITY; PALEOFLOOD; PEAK DISCHARGE; RIPARIAN VEGETATION; TREE RING;

HIMACHAL PRADESH; HIMALAYAS; INDIA; KULLU;

EID: 85009431547     PISSN: 00221694     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.12.059     Document Type: Article

References (72)

1. Allen, S.K., Rastner, P., Arora, M., Huggel, C., Stoffel, M., Lake outburst and debris flow disaster at Kedarnath, June 2013: hydrometeorological triggering and topographic predisposition. Landslides, 2015, 10.1007/s10346-015-0584-3.
2. Arbellay, E., Stoffel, M., Bollschweiler, M., Wood anatomical analysis of Alnus incana and Betula pendula injured by a debris-flow event. Tree Physiol. 30 (2010), 1290–1298.
3. Arbellay, E., Corona, C., Stoffel, M., Fonti, P., Decaulne, A., Defining an adequate sample of earlywood vessels for retrospective injury detection in diffuse-porous species. PLoS One, 7, 2012, e38824.
4. Arbellay, E., Fonti, P., Stoffel, M., Duration and extension of anatomical changes in wood structure after cambial injury. J. Exp. Bot. 63 (2012), 3271–3277.
5. Attri, S.D., Tyagi, A., Climate profile of India. Environ. Meteorol. India Meteorol. Dep., 1–122, 2010, 10.1007/s12524-010-0015-9.
6. Baker, V.R., Paleoflood hydrology: origin, progress, prospects. Geomorphology 101:1 (2008), 1–13.
7. Ballesteros, J.A., Stoffel, M., Bollschweiler, M., Bodoque, J.M., Díez-Herrero, A., Flash-flood impacts cause changes in wood anatomy of Alnus glutinosa, Fraxinus angustifolia and Quercus pyrenaica. Tree Physiol. 30 (2010), 773–781, 10.1093/treephys/tpq031.
8. Ballesteros, J.A., Stoffel, M., Bodoque, J.M., Bollschweiler, M., Hitz, O., Díez-Herrero, A., Changes in wood anatomy in tree rings of Pinus pinaster ait. following wounding by flash floods. Tree-Ring Res. 66 (2010), 93–103, 10.3959/2009-4.1.
9. Ballesteros Cánovas, J.A., Eguibar, M., Bodoque, J.M., Díez-Herrero, A., Stoffel, M., Gutiérrez-Pérez, I., Estimating flash flood discharge in an ungauged mountain catchment with 2D hydraulic models and dendrogeomorphic palaeostage indicators. Hydrol. Process. 25 (2011), 970–979, 10.1002/hyp.7888.
10. Ballesteros, J.A., Bodoque, J.M., Díez-Herrero, A., Sanchez-Silva, M., Stoffel, M., Calibration of floodplain roughness and estimation of flood discharge based on tree-ring evidence and hydraulic modelling. J. Hydrol. 403 (2011), 103–115, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.03.045.
11. Ballesteros-Cánovas, J.A., Sanchez-Silva, M., Bodoque, J.M., Díez-Herrero, A., An integrated approach to flood risk management: a case study of Navaluenga (Central Spain). Water Resour. Manage. 27 (2013), 3051–3069, 10.1007/s11269-013-0332-1.
12. Ballesteros-Cánovas, J.A., Rodríguez-Morata, C., Garófano-Gómez, V., Rubiales, J.M., Sánchez-Salguero, R., Stoffel, M., Unravelling past flash flood activity in a forested mountain catchment of the Spanish Central System. J. Hydrol. 529 (2014), 468–479, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.11.027.
13. Ballesteros-Canovas, J.A., Stoffel, M., St George, S., Hirschboeck, K., A review of flood records from tree rings. Prog. Phys. Geogr. 39 (2015), 794–816, 10.1177/0309133315608758.
14. Ballesteros-Cánovas, J.A., Czajka, B., Janecka, K., Lempa, M., Kaczka, R.J., Stoffel, M., Flash floods in the Tatra Mountain streams: frequency and triggers. Sci. Total Environ. 511 (2015), 639–648, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.12.081.
15. Ballesteros-Cánovas, J.A., Stoffel, M., Spyt, B., Janecka, K., Kaczka, R.J., Lempa, M., Paleoflood discharge reconstruction in Tatra Mountain streams. Geomorphology, 4–13, 2015, 10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.12.004.
16. Ballesteros-cánovas, J.A., Tasaduq, H.K., Shabir, H.A., Shah, B., 2016. Documenting historic and recent extreme floods in Kashmir, vol. 18, pp. 11990.
17. Benito, G., Thorndycraft, V.R., 2004. Systematic, Palaeoflood and Historical Data for the Improvement of Flood Risk Estimation, Methodological Guidelines.
18. Benito, G., Sopeña, A., Sánchez-Moya, Y., Machado, M.J., Pérez-González, A., Palaeoflood record of the Tagus River (Central Spain) during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene. Quat. Sci. Rev. 22 (2003), 1737–1756, 10.1016/S0277-3791(03)00133-1.
19. Bodoque, J.M., Díez-Herrero, A., Eguibar, M.A., Benito, G., Ruiz-Villanueva, V., Ballesteros-Cánovas, J.A., Challenges in paleoflood hydrology applied to risk analysis in mountainous watersheds – a review. J. Hydrol. 529 (2015), 449–467, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.12.004.
20. Brooks G., and St George., 2015. Flooding, Structural Flood Control Measures, and Recent Geomorphic Research along the Red River, Manitoba, Canada. In: Springer, (Ed.), Geomorphic Approaches to Integrated Floodplain Management of Lowland Fluvial Systems in North America and Europe. New York, pp. 87–117.
21. Chase, T.N., Knaff, J.A., Pielke, S.A., Kalnay, E., Changes in global monsoon circulations since 1950. Nat. Hazards 29 (2003), 229–254, 10.1023/A:1023638030885.
22. Chow, V.T., 1964. Handbook of Applied Hydrology.
23. Corriell, F., 2002. Reconstruction of a paleoflood chronology for the middlebury river gorge using tree scars as flood stage indicators. Middlebury College.
24. DAK, 2011. Kullu District Disaster Management Plan. Himachal Pradesh Government, http://www.hpkullu.nic.in/disaster/DDMP-2011.pdf.
25. Duan, K., Yao, T., Thompson, L.G., Response of monsoon precipitation in the Himalayas to global warming. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 111 (2006), 1–8, 10.1029/2006JD007084.
26. Gaál, L., Szolgay, J., Kohnová, S., Hlavčová, K., Viglione, A., Inclusion of historical information in flood frequency analysis using a Bayesian MCMC technique: a case study for the power dam Orlík, Czech Republic. Contrib. Geophys. Geod. 40 (2010), 121–147, 10.2478/v10126-010-0005-5.
27. Gardner, J.S., Natural hazards risk in the Kullu District, Himachal Pradesh, India. Geogr. Rev. 92 (2002), 282–306, 10.1111/j.1931-0846.2002.tb00008.x.
28. Gardner, J.S., Saczuk, E., Systems for hazards identification in high mountain areas: An example from the Kullu District, western Himalaya. J. Mt. Sci. 1 (2004), 115–127, 10.1007/BF02919334.
29. Gaume, E., Gaál, L., Viglione, A., Szolgay, J., Kohnová, S., Blöschl, G., Bayesian MCMC approach to regional flood frequency analyses involving extraordinary flood events at ungauged sites. J. Hydrol. 394 (2010), 101–117, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.01.008.
30. Germain, D., Filion, L., Hétu, B., Snow avalanche regime and climatic conditions in the Chic-Choc Range, eastern Canada. Clim. Change 92 (2009), 141–167, 10.1007/s10584-008-9439-4.
31. Goswami, B.N., Xavier, P.K., ENSO control on the south Asian monsoon through the length of the rainy season. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 (2005), 1–4, 10.1029/2005GL023216.
32. Hirabayashi, Y., Mahendran, R., Koirala, S., Konoshima, L., Yamazaki, D., Watanabe, S., Kim, H., Kanae, S., Global flood risk under climate change. Nat. Clim. Chang. 3 (2013), 816–821, 10.1038/nclimate1911.
33. Hobley, D.E.J., Sinclair, H.D., Mudd, S.M., Reconstruction of a major storm event from its geomorphic signature: the Ladakh floods, 6 August 2010. Geology 40 (2012), 483–486, 10.1130/G32935.1.
34. Hosking, J.R.M., Wallis, J.R., Parameter and quantile estimation for the generalized pareto distribution. Technometrics 29 (1987), 339–349, 10.1198/016214507000000932.
35. Jarrett, R.D., Hydrologic and hydraulic research in mountain rivers. Water Resour. Bull. 26:3 (1990), 419–429.
36. Jarrett, R.D., England, J., 2002. Reliability of paleostage indicators for paleoflood studies, in: Ancient Floods, Modern Hazards: Principles and Applications of Paleoflood Hydrology. Water Science and Application, vol. 5. pp. 91–109.
37. Kjeldsen, T.R., Macdonald, N., Lang, M., Mediero, L., Albuquerque, T., Bogdanowicz, E., Brázdil, R., Castellarin, A., David, V., Fleig, A., Gül, G.O., Kriauciuniene, J., Kohnová, S., Merz, B., Nicholson, O., Roald, L.A., Salinas, J.L., Sarauskiene, D., Sˇraj, M., Strupczewski, W., Szolgay, J., Toumazis, A., Vanneuville, W., Veijalainen, N., Wilson, D., Documentary evidence of past floods in Europe and their utility in flood frequency estimation. J. Hydrol. 517 (2014), 963–973, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.06.038.
38. Kogelnig-Mayer, B., Stoffel, M., Schneuwly-Bollschweiler, M., Hübl, J., Rudolf-Miklau, F., Possibilities and limitations of dendrogeomorphic time-series reconstructions on sites influenced by debris flows and frequent snow avalanche activity. Arctic Antarct. Alp. Res. 43 (2011), 649–658, 10.1657/1938-4246-43.4.649.
39. Kripalani, R.H., Kulkarni, A., Rainfall variability over South-east Asia—connections with Indian monsoon and ENSO extremes: new perspectives. Int. J. Climatol. 17 (1997), 1155–1168, 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199709)17:11<1155::AID-JOC188>3.0.CO;2-B.
40. Kumar, K., Hoerling, M., Rajagopalan, B., Advancing dynamical prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 (2005), 1–4, 10.1029/2004GL021979.
41. Mathison, C., Wiltshire, A., Dimri, A.P., Falloon, P., Jacob, D., Kumar, P., Moors, E., Ridley, J., Siderius, C., Stoffel, M., Yasunari, T., Regional projections of North Indian climate for adaptation studies. Sci. Total Environ., 468–469, 2013, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.04.066.
42. McCord, V.A., 1990. Augmenting Flood Frequency Estimates using Flood-Scarred Trees. University of Arizona.
43. National Disaster Management Policy, 2009, 2009. National Policy on Disaster Management 2009. Government of Idnia.
44. O'Connell, D.R.H., Nonparametric Bayesian flood frequency estimation. J. Hydrol. 313 (2005), 79–96, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.02.005.
45. O'Connor, J.E., Ely, L.L., Wohl, E.E., Stevens, L.E., Melis, T.S., Kale, V.S., Baker, V.R., A 4500-year record of large floods on the Colorado River in the grand Canyon, Arizona. J. Geol. 102 (1994), 1–9, 10.1086/629644.
46. Parthasarathy, B., Sontakke, N.A., Monot, A.A., Kothawale, D.R., Droughts/floods in the summer monsoon season over different meteorological subdivisions of India for the period 1871–1984. J. Climatol. 7 (1987), 57–70, 10.1002/joc.3370070106.
47. Rajeevan, M., Gadgil, S., Bhate, J., 2008. Active and Break Spells of the Indian Summer Monsoon. NCC Research Report: March 2008.
48. Ranatunge, E., Malmgren, B.A., Hayashi, Y., Mikami, T., Morishima, W., Yokozawa, M., Nishimori, M., Changes in the Southwest Monsoon mean daily rainfall intensity in Sri Lanka: relationship to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol. 197 (2003), 1–14, 10.1016/S0031-0182(03)00383-3.
49. Rodriguez-Morata, C., Ballesteros-Cánovas, J.A., Trappmann, D., Beniston, M., Stoffel, M., Regional reconstruction of flash flood history in the Guadarrama range (Central System, Spain). Sci. Total Environ. 550 (2016), 406–417, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.01.074.
50. Ruiz-Villanueva, V., Allen, S., Arora, M., Goel, N.K., Stoffel, M., Recent catastrophic landslide lake outburst floods in the Himalayan mountain range. Prog. Phys. Geogr. doi:, 2016, 10.1177/0309133316658614.
51. Ruiz-Villanueva, V., Díez-Herrero, A., Bodoque, J.M., Ballesteros Cánovas, J.A., Stoffel, M., Characterisation of flash floods in small ungauged mountain basins of Central Spain using an integrated approach. Catena 110 (2013), 32–43, 10.1016/j.catena.2013.06.015.
52. Sah, M.P., Mazari, R.K., An overview of the geoenvironmental status of the Kullu Valley, Himachal Pradesh, India. J. Mt. Sci. 4 (2007), 003–023, 10.1007/s11629-007-0003-x.
53. Sah, M.P., Mazari, R.K., Anthropogenically accelerated mass movement, Kulu Valley, Himachal Pradesh, India. Geomorphology 26 (1998), 123–138, 10.1016/S0169-555X(98)00054-3.
54. Schneuwly, D.M., Stoffel, M., Dorren, L.K.A., Berger, F., Three-dimensional analysis of the anatomical growth response of European conifers to mechanical disturbance. Tree Physiol. 29 (2009), 1247–1257, 10.1093/treephys/tpp056.
55. Shroder, J.F., Dendrogeomorphological analysis of mass movement on Table Cliffs Plateau. Utah. Quat. Res. 9 (1978), 168–185, 10.1016/0033-5894(78)90065-0.
56. Šilhán, K., Frequency, predisposition, and triggers of floods in flysch Carpathians: regional study using dendrogeomorphic methods. Geomorphology 234 (2015), 243–253, 10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.12.041.
57. St. George, S., Tree rings as paleoflood and paleostage indicators. Stoffel, M., Bollschweiler, M., Butler, D.R., Luckman, B.H., (eds.) Tree-Rings and Natural Hazards. Tree-Rings and Natural Hazards. A State-of-the-Art, 2010, Springer, Dordrecht, Heidelberg, London, New York, 233–239.
58. St. George, S., Nielsen, E., Palaeoflood records for the Red River, Manitoba, Canada, derived from anatomical tree-ring signatures. Holocene 13 (2003), 547–555, 10.1191/0959683603hl645rp.
59. Stedinger, J.R., 2001. Framework With Partial Duration and Annual Maximum Series, vol. 37, pp. 2559–2567.
60. Stoffel, M., Dating past geomorphic processes with tangential rows of traumatic resin ducts. Dendrochronologia 26 (2008), 53–60, 10.1016/j.dendro.2007.06.002.
61. Stoffel, M., Corona, C., Dendroecological dating of geomorphic disturbance in trees. Tree-Ring Res. 70 (2014), 3–20, 10.3959/1536-1098-70.1.3.
62. Stoffel, M., Perret, S., Reconstructing past rockfall activity with tree rings: Some methodological considerations. Dendrochronologia 24 (2006), 1–15, 10.1016/j.dendro.2006.04.001.
63. Stoffel, M., Wilford, D.J., Hydrogeomorphic processes and vegetation: disturbance, process histories, dependencies and interactions. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms 37 (2012), 9–22, 10.1002/esp.2163.
64. Stoffel, M., Bollschweiler, M., Butler, D.R., et al. Tree Rings and Natural Hazards: A State-of-Art. 2010, Springer, Berlin, New York.
65. Terray, P., Dominiak, S., Indian ocean sea surface temperature and El Niño-southern oscillation: a new perspective. J. Clim. 18 (2005), 1351–1368, 10.1175/JCLI3338.1.
66. Therrell, M.D., Bialecki, M.B., A multi-century tree-ring record of spring flooding on the Mississippi River. J. Hydrol. 529 (2015), 490–498, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.11.005.
67. Turner, A., 2013. The Indian Monsoon in a Changing Climate.
68. UN, Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015. Strategy, 1–25, 2005, 10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004.
69. Viglione, A., 2014. nsRFA: Non-supervised Regional Frequency Analysis. R Packag. version 0.7-12.
70. Yanosky, T.M., Jarret, R.D., 2002. Dendrochronologic evidence for the frequency and magnitude of paleofloods. In: Ancient Floods, Modern Hazards. pp. 77–89.
71. Yim, S.Y., Wang, B., Liu, J., Wu, Z., A comparison of regional monsoon variability using monsoon indices. Clim. Dyn. 43 (2014), 1423–1437, 10.1007/s00382-013-1956-9.
72. Zielonka, T., Holeksa, J., Ciapała, S., A reconstruction of flood events using scarred trees in the Tatra Mountains, Poland. Dendrochronologia 26 (2008), 173–183, 10.1016/j.dendro.2008.06.003.