Responses of arthropod populations to warming depend on latitude: evidence from urban heat islands

Global Change Biology

Volumn 23, Issue 4, 2017, Pages 1436-1447

  Youngsteadt, Elsa ^a   Ernst, Andrew F ^a   Dunn, Robert R ^a,b   Frank, Steven D ^a  

^a NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN   (Denmark)

Author keywords

arthropods; climate change; ectotherms; global warming; latitude; thermal tolerance; urban heat island; urbanization

Indexed keywords

ARTHROPOD; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECTOTHERMY; GLOBAL WARMING; HEAT ISLAND; LATITUDE; TEMPERATURE TOLERANCE; URBANIZATION;

ANIMALIA; ARTHROPODA;

ANIMAL; ARTHROPOD; CITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; HEAT; ISLAND (GEOLOGICAL); NEW YORK; POPULATION DYNAMICS; TEMPERATURE;

ANIMALS; ARTHROPODS; CITIES; CLIMATE CHANGE; HOT TEMPERATURE; ISLANDS; NEW YORK CITY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; TEMPERATURE;

EID: 85006106453     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13550     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Addo-Bediako A, Chown SL, Gaston KJ (2000) Thermal tolerance, climatic variability and latitude. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences, 267, 739–745.
2. Alder JR, Hostetler SW (2013) NEX-DCP30 Climate Downscaling Viewer. US Geological Survey. DOI 10.5066/F5067W9575T; Available at: http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/nex-dcp5030.asp (accessed 20 Sept 2014).
3. Andrew NR, Hill SJ, Binns M et al. (2013) Assessing insect responses to climate change: What are we testing for? Where should we be heading? PeerJ, 1, e11.
4. Angilletta MJ, Wilson RS, Niehaus AC, Sears MW, Navas CA, Ribeiro PL (2007) Urban physiology: city ants possess high heat tolerance. PLoS ONE, 2, e258.
5. Arguez A, Durre I, Applequist S, Squires M, Vose R, Yin X, Bilotta R (2010) NOAA's U.S. Climate Normals (1981–2010). NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, accessed 19 May, 2016.
6. Benjamini Y, Hochberg Y (1995) Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 57, 289–300.
7. Buckley LB (2008) Linking traits to energetics and population dynamics to predict lizard ranges in changing environments. The American Naturalist, 171, E1–E19.
8. Chander G, Markham BL, Helder DL (2009) Summary of current radiometric calibration coefficients for Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+, and EO-1 ALI sensors. Remote Sensing of Environment, 113, 893–903.
9. Chao A (1984) Nonparametric estimation of the number of classes in a population. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 11, 265–270.
10. Chen I-C, Hill JK, Ohlemüller R, Roy DB, Thomas CD (2011) Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science, 333, 1024–1026.
11. Chown SL, Duffy GA (2015) Thermal physiology and urbanization: perspectives on exit, entry and transformation rules. Functional Ecology, 29, 902–912.
12. Chown S, Addo-Bediako A, Gaston K (2002) Physiological variation in insects: large-scale patterns and their implications. Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology Part B: Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, 131, 587–602.
13. Colwell RK (2013) EstimateS: Statistical estimation of species richness and shared species from samples. Version 9. Users Guide and application published at http://purl.oclc.org/estimates.
14. Colwell RK, Chao A, Gotelli NJ, Lin S-Y, Mao CX, Chazdon RL, Longino JT (2012) Models and estimators linking individual-based and sample-based rarefaction, extrapolation and comparison of assemblages. Journal of Plant Ecology, 5, 3–21.
15. Crozier L, Dwyer G (2006) Combining population-dynamic and ecophysiological models to predict climate-induced insect range shifts. The American Naturalist, 167, 853–866.
16. Dale AG, Frank SD (2014) Urban warming trumps natural enemy regulation of herbivorous pests. Ecological Applications, 24, 1596–1607.
17. Deutsch CA, Tewksbury JJ, Huey RB, Sheldon KS, Ghalambor CK, Haak DC, Martin PR (2008) Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105, 6668–6672.
18. Diamond SE, Frame AM, Martin RA, Buckley LB (2011) Species’ traits predict phenological responses to climate change in butterflies. Ecology, 92, 1005–1012.
19. Diamond SE, Nichols LM, Mccoy N et al. (2012a) A physiological trait-based approach to predicting the responses of species to experimental climate warming. Ecology, 93, 2305–2312.
20. Diamond SE, Sorger DM, Hulcr J et al. (2012b) Who likes it hot? A global analysis of the climatic, ecological, and evolutionary determinants of warming tolerance in ants. Global Change Biology, 18, 448–456.
21. Doak DF, Morris WF (2010) Demographic compensation and tipping points in climate-induced range shifts. Nature, 467, 959–962.
22. Finlay BJ, Thomas JA, Mcgavin GC, Fenchel T, Clarke RT (2006) Self-similar patterns of nature: insect diversity at local to global scales. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences, 273, 1935–1941.
23. Gaffin S, Rosenzweig C, Khanbilvardi R et al. (2008) Variations in New York City's urban heat island strength over time and space. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 94, 1–11.
24. 2 concentration and temperature across an urban-rural transect. Atmospheric Environment, 41, 7654–7665.
25. Gotelli NJ, Colwell RK (2001) Quantifying biodiversity: procedures and pitfalls in the measurement and comparison of species richness. Ecology Letters, 4, 379–391.
26. Gotelli NJ, Dorazio RM, Ellison AM, Grossman GD (2010) Detecting temporal trends in species assemblages with bootstrapping procedures and hierarchical models. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 365, 3621–3631.
27. Goulet H, Huber J (1993) Hymenoptera of the World: An Identification Guide to Families. Research Branch, Agriculture Canada, Ottawa, ON.
28. Higgins SI, O'hara RB, Bykova O et al. (2012) A physiological analogy of the niche for projecting the potential distribution of plants. Journal of Biogeography, 39, 2132–2145.
29. Hothorn T, Hornik K, Van De Wiel MA, Zeileis A (2006) A Lego system for conditional inference. The American Statistician, 60, 257–263.
30. Hurlbert SH (1971) The nonconcept of species diversity: a critique and alternative parameters. Ecology, 52, 577–586.
31. Kéry M (2010) Introduction to WinBUGS for Ecologists: Bayesian Approach to Regression, ANOVA, Mixed Models and Related Analyses. Academic Press, Burlington, MA.
32. Kingsolver JG, Diamond SE, Buckley LB (2013) Heat stress and the fitness consequences of climate change for terrestrial ectotherms. Functional Ecology, 27, 1415–1423.
33. Kunkel KE, Stevens LE, Stevens SE et al. (2013) Regional Climate Trends and Scenarios for the U.S. National Climate Assessment Part 2: Climate of the Southeast U.S. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC.
34. Lunn DJ, Thomas A, Best N, Spiegelhalter D (2000) WinBUGS-a Bayesian modelling framework: concepts, structure, and extensibility. Statistics and Computing, 10, 325-337.
35. McKinney ML (2008) Effects of urbanization on species richness: a review of plants and animals. Urban Ecosystems, 11, 161–176.
36. Meineke EK, Dunn RR, Sexton JO, Frank SD (2013) Urban warming drives insect pest abundance on street trees. PLoS ONE, 8, e59687.
37. Meineke EK, Dunn RR, Frank SD (2014) Early pest development and loss of biological control are associated with urban warming. Biology Letters, 10, 20140586.
38. Parmesan C (2006) Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics, 37, 637–669.
39. Pelini SL, Dzurisin JD, Prior KM, Williams CM, Marsico TD, Sinclair BJ, Hellmann JJ (2009) Translocation experiments with butterflies reveal limits to enhancement of poleward populations under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106, 11160–11165.
40. Pelini SL, Boudreau M, Mccoy N, Ellison AM, Gotelli NJ, Sanders NJ, Dunn RR (2011a) Effects of short-term warming on low and high latitude forest ant communities. Ecosphere, 2, 1–12.
41. Pelini SL, Bowles FP, Ellison AM, Gotelli NJ, Sanders NJ, Dunn RR (2011b) Heating up the forest: open-top chamber warming manipulation of arthropod communities at Harvard and Duke Forests. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2, 534–540.
42. Pelini SL, Diamond SE, Nichols LM et al. (2014) Geographic differences in effects of experimental warming on ant species diversity and community composition. Ecosphere, 5, 1–12.
43. R Core Team (2013) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
44. Raupp MJ, Cumming AB, Raupp EC (2006) Street tree diversity in eastern North America and its potential for tree loss to exotic borers. Arboriculture and Urban Forestry, 32, 297–304.
45. Shrewsbury PM, Raupp MJ (2000) Evaluation of components of vegetational texture for predicting azalea lace bug, Stephanitis pyrioides (Heteroptera: Tingidae), abundance in managed landscapes. Environmental Entomology, 29, 919–926.
46. Sinervo B, Méndez-De-La-Cruz F, Miles DB et al. (2010) Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches. Science, 328, 894–899.
47. Stuble KL, Pelini SL, Diamond SE, Fowler DA, Dunn RR, Sanders NJ (2013) Foraging by forest ants under experimental climatic warming: a test at two sites. Ecology and Evolution, 3, 482–491.
48. Sunday JM, Bates AE, Dulvy NK (2011) Global analysis of thermal tolerance and latitude in ectotherms. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences, 278, 1823–1830.
49. Sunday JM, Bates AE, Dulvy NK (2012) Thermal tolerance and the global redistribution of animals. Nature Climate Change, 2, 686–690.
50. Sunday JM, Bates AE, Kearney MR, Colwell RK, Dulvy NK, Longino JT, Huey RB (2014) Thermal-safety margins and the necessity of thermoregulatory behavior across latitude and elevation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111, 5610–5615.
51. Tewksbury JJ, Huey RB, Deutsch CA (2008) Putting the heat on tropical animals. Science, 320, 1296.
52. Triplehorn C, Johnson N (2004) Borror and DeLong's Introduction to the Study of Insects (7th edn). Thompson Brooks/Cole, Belmont, CA.
53. Tylianakis JM, Didham RK, Bascompte J, Wardle DA (2008) Global change and species interactions in terrestrial ecosystems. Ecology Letters, 11, 1351–1363.
54. Walther G-R (2010) Community and ecosystem responses to recent climate change. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 365, 2019–2024.
55. Youngsteadt E, Dale AG, Terando AJ, Dunn RR, Frank SD (2015) Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming. Global Change Biology, 21, 97–105.