Impacts of rising air temperatures on electric transmission ampacity and peak electricity load in the United States

Environmental Research Letters

Volumn 11, Issue 11, 2016, Pages

  Bartos, Matthew ^a   Chester, Mikhail ^a   Johnson, Nathan ^b   Gorman, Brandon ^a   Eisenberg, Daniel ^a,c   Linkov, Igor ^c   Bates, Matthew ^c  

^a ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b Arizona State University   (United States)

^c US ARMY ENGINEER RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

climate change; electrical grid; infrastructure; resilience

Indexed keywords

AIR CONDITIONING; ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE MODELS; ELECTRIC UTILITIES; ENERGY EFFICIENCY;

AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURE; ELECTRICAL GRIDS; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL PROJECTIONS; HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIPS; INFRASTRUCTURE; RESILIENCE; TEMPERATURE PROJECTION; TRANSMISSION CAPACITIES;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

AIR CONDITIONING; AIR TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; ELECTRICITY SUPPLY; ENERGY EFFICIENCY; ENERGY PLANNING; GLOBAL CLIMATE; INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING;

UNITED STATES;

EID: 85006004148     PISSN: 17489318     EISSN: 17489326     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114008     Document Type: Article

References (63)

1. Bartos M D and Chester M V 2015 Impacts of climate change on electric power supply in the Western United States Nat. Clim. Change 5 748-52
2. Van Vliet M T H, Yearsley J R, Ludwig F, Vögele S, Lettenmaier D P and Kabat P 2012 Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change Nat. Clim. Change 2 676-81
3. Sathaye J, Dale L, Larsen P, Fitts G, Koy K, Lewis S and Lucena A 2011 Estimating risk to California Energy Infrastructure from Projected Climate Change, CEC Publication CEC-500-2012-057 (www.energy.ca.gov/2012publications/CEC-500-2012-057/CEC-500-2012-057.pdf)
4. Dirks J A et al 2015 Impacts of climate change on energy consumption and peak demand in buildings: a detailed regional approach Energy 79 20-32
5. Parry M L (ed) 2007 Climate Change 2007 - Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC vol 4 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) (www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-full-report.pdf)
6. Harto C B et al 2012 Analysis of drought impacts on electricity production in the Western and Texas interconnections of the United States ANL/EVS/R-11/14
7. Kimmell T A and Veil J A 2009 Impact of drought on US steam electric power plant cooling water intakes and related water resource management issues DOE/NETL-2009/1364
8. Koch H and Vögele S 2009 Dynamic modelling of water demand, water availability and adaptation strategies for power plants to global change Ecolog. Econ. 68 2031-9
9. Bartos M and Chester M 2016 Methodology for estimating generating capacity losses in thermoelectric power facilities with recirculating cooling systems under climate change ASU Digital Repository ASU-SSEBE-CESEM-2016-RPR-003 (https://repository.asu.edu/items/40430)
10. Dubey S, Sarvaiya J and Seshadri B 2013 Temperature dependent photovoltaic (PV) efficiency and its effect on PV production in the world - a review Energy Proced. 33 311-21
11. Janko S, Arnold M and Johnson N 2016 Implications of high-penetration renewables for ratepayers and utilities in the residential solar photovoltaic (PV) market Appl. Energy 180 37-51
12. Energy Information Administration 2016 EIA Form 861: Electric power sales, revenue, and energy efficiency (https://eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/) (Accessed: September 2016)
13. Parkinson S and Djilali N 2015 Robust response to hydro-climatic change in electricity generation planning Clim. Change 130 475-89
14. Linkov I et al 2014 Changing the resilience paradigm Nat. Clim. Change 4 407-9
15. Roege P E, Collier Z A, Mancillas J, McDonagh J A and Linkov I 2014 Metrics for energy resilience Energy Policy 72 249-56
16. PJM Interconnection 2010 Guide for Determination of Bare Overhead Transmission Conductors (http://pjm.com//media/planning/design-engineering/maac-standards/bare-overhead-transmission-conductor-ratings.ashx) (Accessed: May 2015)
17. PJM Interconnection 2004 Outdoor Substation Conductor Ratings (http://pjm.com/∼/media/planning/design-engineering/maac-standards/outdoor-substation-conductor-ratings.ashx) (Accessed: May 2015)
18. Rosenthal D H, Gruenspecht H K and Moran E A 1995 Effects of global warming on energy use for space heating and cooling in the United States Energy J. 16 77-96
19. Zhou Y, Eom J and Clarke L 2013 The effect of global climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the US and China Clim. Change 119 979-92
20. Zhou Y et al 2014 Modeling the effect of climate change on US state-level buildings energy demands in an integrated assessment framework Appl. Energy 113 1077-88
21. Hadley S W, Erickson D J, Hernandez J L, Broniak C T and Blasing T J 2006 Responses of energy use to climate change: a climate modeling study Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 L17703
22. Mansur E T, Mendelsohn R O and Morrison W 2005 A discrete-continuous choice model of climate change impacts on energy, SSRN Yale SOM Working Paper No. ES-43 (abstract number 738544), submitted to J. Environ. Manag.
23. McFarland J et al 2015 Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison Clim. Change 131 111-25
24. Amato A D, Ruth M, Kirshen P and Horwitz J 2005 Regional energy demand responses to climate change: methodology and application to the commonwealth of massachusetts Clim. Change 71 175-201
25. Franco G and Sanstad A H 2007 Climate change and electricity demand in California Clim. Change 87 139-51
26. US Energy Information Administration 2011 Fig. of Western U.S. net regional power flows from FERC's Form 714 A quarter of California's electricity comes from outside the state (http://eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=4370) (Accessed: July 2015)
27. Allen M, Fernandez S, Fu J and Olama M 2016 Impacts of climate change on sub-regional electricity demand and distribution in the southern United States Nat. Energy 1 16103
28. Homeland Security Infrastructure Program 2014 Retail Electric Service Territories Shapefile., United States Department of Homeland Security) (CD ROM)
29. North American Electric Reliability Corporation 2012 2012 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (http://nerc.com/news/Headlines%20DL/2012%20Long%20Term%20Reliability%20Assessment.pdf) (Accessed: June 2015)
30. IEEE Standard for Calculating the Current-Temperature Relationship of Bare Overhead Conductors 2013 IEEE Std 738-2012 (Revision of IEEE Std 738-2006 - Incorporates IEEE Std 738-2012 Cor 1-2013)
31. Homeland Security Infrastructure Program 2014 Electric Transmission Lines Shapefile, United States Department of Homeland Security (CD ROM)
32. Southwire Company 2012 Product Specification - Aluminum Conductor, Steel Reinforced (http://southwire.com/ProductCatalog/XTEInterfaceServlet?contentKey=prodcatsheet16) (Accessed: April 2015)
33. Oman Cables Industry 2011 Overhead Line Conductors (http://omancables.com/brochure/Overhead-Line-Conductor.pdf) (Accessed: April 2015)
34. Nexans Olex New Zealand 2012 Power Cable Catalogue Conductor characteristics and product sheets (http://nexans.co.nz/NewZealand/2013/Power%20Cable%20Catalogue%20Full%20version%202012.pdf) (Accessed: April 2015)
35. House H E and Tuttle P D 1958 Current-carrying capacity of ACSR Trans. Am. Inst. Elect. Eng. III 77 1169-73
36. Maurer E P, Wood A W, Adam J C, Lettenmaier D P and Nijssen B 2002 A long-term hydrologically based dataset of land surface fluxes and states for the conterminous United States J. Clim. 15 3237-51
37. Shepard D 1984 Computer mapping: the SYMAP interpolation algorithm Spatial Stat. Mod. 133-45
38. Widmann M and Bretherton C 2000 Validation of mesoscale precipitation in the NCEP reanalysis using a new gridcell dataset for the northwestern United States J. Clim. 13 1936-50
39. Reclamation 2013 Downscaled CMIP3 and CMPI5 Climate Projections: Release of Downscaled CMIP5 Climate Projections, Comparisons with Preceding Information, and Summary of User Needs. Denver, CO: US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Technical Service Center (http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/) (Accessed: May 2015)
40. California Energy Commission 1999 High Temperatures and Electricity Demand: An Assessment of Supply Adequacy in California (Sacramento, CA: the California Energy Commission staff) (www.energy.ca.gov/reports/1999-07-23-HEAT-RPT.PDF)
41. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission 2015 Form No. 714 - Annual Electric Balancing Authority Area and Planning Area Report, 1993-2013 (Data set). Retrieved May 2015 from (http://ferc.gov/docs-filing/forms/form-714/data.asp)
42. US Census Bureau 2015 Population by census tract, 1990 (Data set) Prepared by Social Explorer (https://socialexplorer.com/explore/tables) (Accessed: May 2015)
43. US Census Bureau 2015 Population by census tract, 2000 (Data set) Prepared by Social Explorer (https://socialexplorer.com/explore/tables) (Accessed: May 2015)
44. US Census Bureau 2015 Population by census tract, 2010 (Data set) Prepared by Social Explorer (https://socialexplorer.com/explore/tables) (Accessed: May 2015)
45. US Census Bureau 2015 2014 TIGER/Line Shapefiles - Census Tract Geometries (Data set) (ftp://ftp2.census.gov/geo/tiger/TIGER2014/) (Accessed: May 2015)
46. US Census Bureau 2015 2000 TIGER/Line Shapefiles - Census Tract Geometries (Data set) (ftp://ftp2.census.gov/geo/tiger/tiger2k/) (Accessed: May 2015)
47. US Census Bureau 2015 1992 TIGER/Line Shapefiles - Census Tract Geometries (Data set) (ftp://ftp2.census.gov/geo/tiger/TIGER1992/) (Accessed: May 2015)
48. Cayla J-M, Maizi N and Marchand C 2011 The role of income in energy consumption behaviour: evidence from French households data Energy Policy 39 7874-83
49. Wyatt P 2013 A dwelling-level investigation into the physical and socio-economic drivers of domestic energy consumption in England Energy Policy 60 540-9
50. Lise W and Van Montfort K 2007 Energy consumption and GDP in Turkey: is there a co-integration relationship? Energy Econ. 29 1166-78
51. Sailor D J and Pavlova A A 2003 Air conditioning market saturation and long-term response of residential cooling energy demand to climate change Energy 28 941-51
52. Southwire Company 2012 Product Specification - Aluminum Conductor, Steel Supported. Bare (http://southwire.com/ProductCatalog/XTEInterfaceServlet?contentKey=prodcatsheet28) (Accessed: May 2015)
53. Young I R, Zieger S and Babanin A V 2011 Global trends in wind speed and wave height Science 332 451-5
54. McVicar T R et al 2012 Global review and synthesis of trends in observed terrestrial near-surface wind speeds: implications for evaporation J. Hydrol. 416-417 182-205
55. Breslow P B and Sailor D J 2002 Vulnerability of wind power resources to climate change in the continental United States Renew. Energy 27 585-98
56. Greene J S, Chatelain M, Morrissey M and Stadler S 2012 Projected future wind speed and wind power density trends over the western US high plains Atmos. Clim. Sci. 02 32-40
57. Pryor S C and Barthelmie R J 2011 Assessing climate change impacts on the near-term stability of the wind energy resource over the United States Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 108 8167-71
58. Eichelberger S C J, Nijssen B and Wood A 2008 Climate change effects on wind speed N. Am. Windpower 7 68-72
59. Fang X, Misra S, Xue G and Yang D 2012 Smart grid - the new and improved power grid: a survey IEEE Commun. Surv. Tutorials 14 944-80
60. Deb A K 2000 Powerline Ampacity System: Theory, Modeling and Applications (Boca Raton, FL: CRC)
61. Niyato D, Xiao L and Wang P 2011 Machine-to-machine communications for home energy management system in smart grid IEEE Commun. Mag. 49 53-9
62. US Department of Energy 2015 Learn more about interconnections (http://energy.gov/oe/services/electricity-policy-coordination-and-implementation/transmission-planning/recovery-act-0) (Accessed: July 2015)
63. North American Electric Reliability Corporation 2015 2015 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (http://nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/2015LTRA%20-%20Final%20Report.pdf) (Accessed: September 2016)