On the drivers and predictability of seasonal-to-interannual variations in regional sea level

Journal of Climate

Volumn 29, Issue 21, 2016, Pages 7565-7585

  Roberts, C D ^a   Calvert, D ^a   Dunstone, N ^a   Hermanson, L ^a   Palmer, M D ^a   Smith, D ^a  

^a MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Climate prediction; Climate variability; Sea level; Seasonal forecasting

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELS; CLIMATOLOGY; FORECASTING; SIGNAL PROCESSING;

ATLANTIC MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATIONS; ATMOSPHERIC VARIABILITY; CLIMATE PREDICTION; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; CONTINENTAL SHELF SEAS; HEAT AND FRESHWATER FLUXES; OCEAN MODEL SIMULATIONS; SEASONAL FORECASTING;

SEA LEVEL;

ANNUAL VARIATION; BAROTROPIC MODE; CLIMATE PREDICTION; CLIMATE VARIATION; OVERTURN; SEA LEVEL CHANGE; SEASONAL VARIATION; WIND FORCING; WIND-DRIVEN CIRCULATION;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; ATLANTIC OCEAN (NORTHWEST); INDIAN OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN; SOUTHERN OCEAN;

EID: 84995390493     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0886.1     Document Type: Article

References (85)

1. Ablain, M., and Coauthors, 2015: Improved sea level record over the satellite altimetry era (1993-2010) from the Climate Change Initiative Project. Ocean Sci., 11, 67-82, doi:10.5194/os-11-67-2015.
2. Antonov, J. I., S. Levitus, and T. P. Boyer, 2002: Steric sea level variations during 1957-1994: Importance of salinity. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 8013, doi:10.1029/2001JC000964.
3. Ashok, K., S. K. Behera, S. A. Rao, H. Weng, and T. Yamagata, 2007: El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection. J. Geophys. Res., 112, C11, doi:10.1029/2006JC003798.
4. Barnston, A. G., and R. E. Livezey, 1987: Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1083-1126, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1083:CSAPOL>2.0.CO;2.
5. Becker, M., B. Meyssignac, C. Letetrel, W. Llovel, A. Cazenave, and T. Delcroix, 2012: Sea level variations at tropical Pacific islands since 1950. Global Planet. Change, 80-81, 85-98, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.09.004.
6. Bingham, R. J., and C. W. Hughes, 2012: Local diagnostics to estimate density-induced sea level variations over topography and along coastlines. J. Geophys. Res., 117, C01013, doi:10.1029/2011JC007276.
7. Cabanes, C., T. Huck, and A. Colin de Verdière, 2006: Contributions of wind forcing and surface heating to interannual sea level variations in the Atlantic Ocean. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 36, 1739-1750, doi:10.1175/JPO2935.1.
8. Cazenave, A., and W. Llovel, 2010: Contemporary sea level rise. Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 2, 145-173, doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-120308-081105.
9. Chelton, D. B., and R. E. Davis, 1982: Monthly mean sea-level variability along the west coast of North America. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 12, 757-784, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1982)012<0757:MMSLVA>2.0.CO;2.
10. Chelton, D. B., M. G. Schlax, R. M. Samelson, and R. A. de Szoeke, 2007: Global observations of large oceanic eddies. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L15606, doi:10.1029/2007GL030812.
11. Chiang, J. C. H., and D. J. Vimont, 2004: Analogous meridional modes of atmosphere-ocean variability in the tropical Pacific and tropical Atlantic. J. Climate, 17, 4143-4158, doi:10.1175/JCLI4953.1.
12. Chowdhury, M. R., P.-S. Chu, T. Schroeder, and N. Colasacco, 2007: Seasonal sea-level forecasts by canonical correlation analysis-An operational scheme for the US-affiliated Pacific Islands. Int. J. Climatol., 27, 1389-1402, doi:10.1002/joc.1474.
13. Chowdhury, M. R., P.-S. Chu, and C. C. Guard, 2014: An improved sea level forecasting scheme for hazards management in the US-affiliated Pacific Islands. Int. J. Climatol., 34, 2320-2329, doi:10.1002/joc.3841.
14. Church, J. A., and N. J. White, 2011: Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century. Surv. Geophys., 32, 585-602, doi:10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1.
15. Cummins, P. F., and G. S. E. Lagerloef, 2004: Wind-driven interannual variability over the northeast Pacific Ocean. Deep-Sea Res. I, 51, 2105-2121, doi:10.1016/j.dsr.2004.08.004.
16. Dee, D. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553-507, doi:10.1002/qj.828.
17. Dunstone, N., D. Smith, A. Scaife, L. Hermanson, R. Ease, N. Robinson, M. Andrews, and J. Knight, 2016: Skillful predictions of the winter North Atlantic oscillation one year ahead. Nature Geosci., in press.
18. Enfield, D. B., and J. S. Allen, 1980: On the structure and dynamics of monthly mean sea level anomalies along the Pacific coast of North and South America. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 10, 557-578, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1980)010<0557:OTSADO>2.0.CO;2.
19. England, M. H., and Coauthors, 2014: Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nat. Climate Change, 4, 222-227, doi:10.1038/nclimate2106.
20. Esselborn, S., and C. Eden, 2001: Sea surface height changes in the North Atlantic Ocean related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 3473-3476, doi:10.1029/2001GL012863.
21. Fagherazzi, S., G. Fosser, L. D'Alpaos, and P. D'Odorico, 2005: Climatic oscillations influence the flooding of Venice. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L19710, doi:10.1029/2005GL023758.
22. Ferry, N., G. Reverdin, and A. Oschlies, 2000: Seasonal sea surface height variability in the North Atlantic Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 105, 6307-6326, doi:10.1029/1999JC900296.
23. Forget, G., and R. M. Ponte, 2015: The partition of regional sea level variability. Prog. Oceanogr., 137, 173-195, doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2015.06.002.
24. Frankignoul, C., P. Müller, and E. Zorita, 1997: A simple model of the decadal response of the ocean to stochastic wind forcing. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 1533-1546, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1997)027<1533:ASMOTD>2.0.CO;2.
25. Fukumori, I., R. Raghunath, and L.-L. Fu, 1998: Nature of global large-scale sea level variability in relation to atmospheric forcing: A modeling study. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 5493-5512, doi:10.1029/97JC02907.
26. Gill, A. E., and P. P. Niller, 1973: The theory of the seasonal variability in the ocean. Deep-Sea Res. Oceanogr. Abstr., 20, 141-177, doi:10.1016/0011-7471(73)90049-1.
27. Goddard, P. B., J. Yin, S. M. Griffies, and S. Zhang, 2015: An extreme event of sea-level rise along the Northeast coast of North America in 2009-2010. Nat. Commun., 6, 6346, doi:10.1038/ncomms7346.
28. Häkkinen, S., 2001: Variability in sea surface height: A qualitative measure for the meridional overturning in the North Atlantic. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 13 837-13 848, doi:10.1029/1999JC000155.
29. Häkkinen, S., and P. B. Rhines, 2004: Decline of subpolar North Atlantic circulation during the 1990s. Science, 304, 555-559, doi:10.1126/science.1094917.
30. Hunke, E. C., and W. H. Lipscomb, 2010: CICE: The Los Alamos Sea Ice Model documentation and software user's manual, version 4.1. Doc. LA-CC-06-012, 76 pp. [Available online at http://csdms.colorado.edu/w/images/CICE_documentation_and_software_user's_manual.pdf.]
31. Jacobs, G. A., H. E. Hurlburt, J. C. Kindle, E. J. Metzger, J. L. Mitchell, W. J. Teague, and A. J. Wallcraft, 1994: Decade-scale trans-Pacific propagation and warming effects of an El-Nino anomaly. Nature, 370, 360-363, doi:10.1038/370360a0.
32. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.
33. Kelly, K. A., M. J. Caruso, and J. A. Austin, 1993: Wind-forced variations in sea surface height in the northeast Pacific Ocean. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 23, 2392-2411, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1993)023<2392:WFVISS>2.0.CO;2.
34. Knight, J. F., and Coauthors, 2014: Predictions of climate several years ahead using an improved decadal prediction system. J. Climate, 27, 7550-7567, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00069.1.
35. Köhl, A., 2014: Detecting processes contributing to interannual halosteric and thermosteric sea level variability. J. Climate, 27, 2417-2426, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00412.1.
36. Large, W. G., and S. G. Yeager, 2004: Diurnal to decadal global forcing for ocean and sea-ice models: The data sets and flux climatologies. NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-460+STR, 105 pp., doi:10.5065/D6KK98Q6.
37. Large, W. G., and S. G. Yeager, 2009: The global climatology of an interannually varying air-sea flux data set. Climate Dyn., 33, 341-364, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0441-3.
38. Lutz, K., J. Rathmann, and J. Jacobeit, 2013: Classification of warm and cold water events in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 14, 102-106, doi:10.1002/asl2.424.
39. MacLachlan, C., and Coauthors, 2015: Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): A high-resolution seasonal forecast system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 1072-1084, doi:10.1002/qj.2396.
40. Madec, G., 2008: NEMO ocean engine, version 3.0. IPSL Pole Modelization Note 27, 209 pp. [Available online at http://www.nemo-ocean.eu/content/download/5302/31828/file/NEMO_book.pdf.]
41. McGregor, S., N. J. Holbrook, and S. B. Power, 2007: Interdecadal sea surface temperature variability in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Part I: The role of off-equatorial wind stresses and oceanic Rossby waves. J. Climate, 20, 2643-2658, doi:10.1175/JCLI4145.1.
42. McIntosh, P. C., J. A. Church, E. R. Miles, K. Ridgway, and C. M. Spillman, 2015: Seasonal coastal sea level prediction using a dynamical model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 6747-6753, doi:10.1002/2015GL065091.
43. Megann, A., and Coauthors, 2014: GO5.0: The joint NERC-Met Office NEMO global ocean model for use in coupled and forced applications. Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1069-1092, doi:10.5194/gmd-7-1069-2014.
44. Meinshausen, M., and Coauthors, 2011: The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Climatic Change, 109, 213-241, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z.
45. Menéndez, M., and P. L. Woodworth, 2010: Changes in extreme high water levels based on a quasi-global tide-gauge data set. J. Geophys. Res., 115, C10011, doi:10.1029/2009JC005997.
46. Merrifield, M. A., and M. E. Maltrud, 2011: Regional sea level trends due to a Pacific trade wind intensification. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L21605, doi:10.1029/2011GL049576.
47. Merrifield, M. A., P. R. Thompson, and M. Lander, 2012: Multidecadal sea level anomalies and trends in the western tropical Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L13602, doi:10.1029/2012GL052032.
48. Miles, E. R., C. M. Spillman, J. A. Church, and P. C. McIntosh, 2014: Seasonal prediction of global sea level anomalies using an ocean-atmosphere dynamical model. Climate Dyn., 43, 2131-2145, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-2039-7.
49. Mo, K. C., 2000: Relationships between low-frequency variability in the Southern Hemisphere and sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 13, 3599-3610, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3599:RBLFVI>2.0.CO;2.
50. Nicholls, R. J., and A. Cazenave, 2010: Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones. Science, 328, 1517-1520, doi:10.1126/science.1185782.
51. Nicholls, R. J., F. M. J. Hoozemans, and M. Marchand, 1999: Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: Regional and global analyses. Global Environ. Change, 9, S69-S87, doi:10.1016/S0959-3780(99)00019-9.
52. Penduff, T., M. Juza, L. Brodeau, G. C. Smith, B. Barnier, J.-M. Molines, A.-M. Treguier, and G. Madec, 2010: Impact of global ocean model resolution on sea-level variability with emphasis on interannual time scales. Ocean Sci., 6, 269-284, doi:10.5194/os-6-269-2010.
53. Penduff, T., M. Juza, B. Barnier, J. Zika, W. K. Dewar, A.-M. Treguier, J.-M. Molines, and N. Audiffren, 2011: Sea level expression of intrinsic and forced ocean variabilities at interannual time scales. J. Climate, 24, 5652-5670, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00077.1.
54. Piecuch, C. G., and R. M. Ponte, 2011: Mechanisms of interannual steric sea level variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L15605, doi:10.1029/2011GL048440.
55. Piecuch, C. G., K. J. Quinn, and R. M. Ponte, 2013: Satellite-derived interannual ocean bottom pressure variability and its relation to sea level. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3106-3110, doi:10.1002/grl.50549.
56. Polkova, I., A. Köhl, and D. Stammer, 2014: Impact of initialization procedures on the predictive skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Climate Dyn., 42, 3151-3169, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1969-4.
57. Polkova, I., A. Köhl, and D. Stammer, 2015: Predictive skill for regional interannual steric sea level and mechanisms for predictability. J. Climate, 28, 7407-7419, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00811.1.
58. Qiu, B., 2002: Large-scale variability in the midlatitude subtropical and subpolar North Pacific Ocean: Observations and causes. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 32, 353-375, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(2002)032<0353:LSVITM>2.0.CO;2.
59. Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2006: Decadal variability in the large-scale sea surface height field of the South Pacific Ocean: Observations and causes. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 36, 1751-1762, doi:10.1175/JPO2943.1.
60. Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2010: Interannual-to-decadal variability in the bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current off the Philippines. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 40, 2525-2538, doi:10.1175/2010JPO4462.1.
61. Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.
62. Roberts, C. D., and Coauthors, 2013: Atmosphere drives recent interannual variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5164-5170, doi:10.1002/grl.50930.
63. Saji, N. H., B. N. Goswami, P. N. Vinayachandran, and T. Yamagata, 1999: A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature, 401 (6751), 360-363.
64. Smith, D. M., and J. M. Murphy, 2007: An objective ocean temperature and salinity analysis using covariances from a global climate model. J. Geophys. Res., 112, C02022, doi:10.1029/2006JD007574.
65. Smith, D. M., R. Eade, and H. Pohlmann, 2013: A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction. Climate Dyn., 41, 3325-3338, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1683-2.
66. Smith, D. M., and Coauthors, 2015: Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 1205-1213, doi:10.1002/2014GL062669.
67. Stammer, D., 1997: Steric and wind-induced changes in TOPEX/POSEIDON large-scale sea surface topography observations. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 20 987-21 009, doi:10.1029/97JC01475.
68. Stammer, D., A. Cazenave, R. M. Ponte, and M. E. Tamisiea, 2013: Causes for contemporary regional sea level changes. Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 5, 21-46, doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-121211-172406.
69. Sturges, W., and B. G. Hong, 1995: Wind forcing of the Atlantic thermocline along 32°N at low frequencies. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 25, 1706-1715, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1995)025<1706:WFOTAT>2.0.CO;2.
70. Sturges, W., B. G. Hong, and A. J. Clarke, 1998: Decadal wind forcing of the North Atlantic subtropical gyre. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 28, 659-668, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1998)028<0659:DWFOTN>2.0.CO;2.
71. Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485-498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.
72. Timmermann, A., S. McGregor, and F.-F. Jin, 2010: Wind effects on past and future regional sea level trends in the southern Indo-Pacific. J. Climate, 23, 4429-4437, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3519.1.
73. Trenberth, K. E., 1997: The definition of El Niño. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2771-2777, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2.
74. Trenberth, K. E., and J. W. Hurrell, 1994: Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific. Climate Dyn., 9, 303-319, doi:10.1007/BF00204745.
75. Tsimplis, M. N., A. G. Shaw, R. A. Flather, and D. K. Woolf, 2006: The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the sea-level around the northern European coasts reconsidered: The thermosteric effects. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, A364, 845-856, doi:10.1098/rsta.2006.1740.
76. Vinogradova, N. T., R. M. Ponte, and D. Stammer, 2007: Relation between sea level and bottom pressure and the vertical dependence of oceanic variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L03608, doi:10.1029/2006GL028588.
77. Vivier, F., K. A. Kelly, and L. Thompson, 1999: Contributions of wind forcing, waves, and surface heating to sea surface height observations in the Pacific Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 20 767-20 788, doi:10.1029/1999JC900096.
78. Williams, K., and Coauthors, 2015: The Met Office Global Coupled model 2.0 (GC2) configuration. Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1509-1524, doi:10.5194/gmd-8-1509-2015.
79. Wong, P. P., I. J. Losada, J.-P. Gattuso, J. Hinkel, A. Khattabi, K. L. McInnes, Y. Saito, and A. Sallenger, 2014: Coastal systems and low-lying areas. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. C. B. Field et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 361-410.
80. Woodworth, P. L., R. A. Flather, J. A. Williams, S. L. Wakelin, and S. Jevrejeva, 2007: The dependence of UK extreme sea levels and storm surges on the North Atlantic Oscillation. Cont. Shelf Res., 27, 935-946, doi:10.1016/j.csr.2006.12.007.
81. Woolf, D. K., A. G. P. Shaw, and M. N. Tsimplis, 2003: The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on sea-level variability in the North Atlantic region. J. Atmos. Ocean Sci., 9, 145-167, doi:10.1080/10236730310001633803.
82. Wyrtki, K., 1975: El Niño-The dynamic response of the equatorial Pacific oceanto atmospheric forcing. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 5, 572-584, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1975)005<0572:ENTDRO>2.0.CO;2.
83. Xue, Y., and A. Leetmaa, 2000: Forecasts of tropical Pacific SST and sea level using a Markov model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2701-2704, doi:10.1029/1999GL011107.
84. Yan, Z., M. N. Tsimplis, and D. Woolf, 2004: Analysis of the relationship between the North Atlantic oscillation and sea-level changes in northwest Europe. Int. J. Climatol., 24, 743-758, doi:10.1002/joc.1035.
85. Zhang, X., and J. A. Church, 2012: Sea level trends, interannual and decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L21701, doi:10.1029/2012GL053240.