NonlinMIP contribution to CMIP6: Model intercomparison project for non-linear mechanisms: Physical basis, experimental design and analysis principles (v1.0)

Geoscientific Model Development

Volumn 9, Issue 11, 2016, Pages 4019-4028

  Good, Peter ^a   Andrews, Timothy ^a   Chadwick, Robin ^a   Dufresne, Jean Louis ^c   Gregory, Jonathan M ^a,b   Lowe, Jason A ^a   Schaller, Nathalie ^d   Shiogama, Hideo ^e  

^a MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

^c LABORATOIRE DE MÉTÉOROLOGIE DYNAMIQUE   (France)

^d UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^e NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES   (Japan)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; ENERGY BALANCE; EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; GLOBAL CLIMATE; SIGNAL-TO-NOISE RATIO;

EID: 84995376281     PISSN: 1991959X     EISSN: 19919603     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-4019-2016     Document Type: Article

References (54)

1. Allen, M. R. and Ingram, W. J. : Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, Nature, 419, 224-232, doi:10. 1038/nature01092, 2002.
2. Andrews, T. and Ringer, M. A. : Cloud feedbacks, rapid adjustments, and the forcing-response relationship in a transient CO2 reversibility scenario, J. Climate, 27, 1799-1818, doi:10. 1175/Jcli-D-13-00421. 1, 2014.
3. Andrews, T., Forster, P. M., Boucher, O., Bellouin, N., and Jones, A. : Precipitation, radiative forcing and global temperature change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14701, doi:10. 1029/2010gl043991, 2010.
4. Bala, G., Caldeira, K., and Nemani, R. : Fast versus slow response in climate change: Implications for the global hydrological cycle, Clim. Dynam., 35, 423-434, doi:10. 1007/s00382-009-0583-y, 2010.
5. Bloch-Johnson, J., Pierrehumbert, R. T., and Abbot, D. S. : Feedback temperature dependence determines the risk of high warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 4973-4980, doi:10. 1002/2015GL064240, 2015.
6. Bony, S., Bellon, G., Klocke, D., Sherwood, S., Fermepin, S., and Denvil, S. : Robust direct effect of carbon dioxide on tropical circulation and regional precipitation (vol 4, pg 447, 2013)
7. Nat. Geosci., 7, 547-547, doi:10. 1038/NGEO2192, 2014.
8. Bouttes, N., Gregory, J. M., and Lowe, J. A. : The reversibility of sea level rise, J. Climate, 26, 2502-2513, doi:10. 1175/Jcli-D-12-00285. 1, 2013.
9. Bouttes, N., Good, P., Gregory, J. M., and Lowe, J. A. : Nonlinearity of ocean heat uptake during warming and cooling in the famous climate model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 2409-2416, doi:10. 1002/2014GL062807, 2015.
10. Caballero, R. and Huber, M. : State-dependent climate sensitivity in past warm climates and its implications for future climate projections, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 14162-14167, doi:10. 1073/pnas. 1303365110, 2013.
11. Chadwick, R. and Good, P. : Understanding non-linear tropical precipitation responses to CO2 forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4911-4915, doi:10. 1002/grl. 50932, 2013.
12. Chadwick, R., Wu, P. L., Good, P., and Andrews, T. : Asymmetries in tropical rainfall and circulation patterns in idealised CO2 removal experiments, Clim. Dynam., 40, 295-316, doi:10. 1007/s00382-012-1287-2, 2013.
13. Chadwick, R., Boutle, I., and Martin, G. : Spatial patterns of precipitation change in CMIP5: Why the rich do not get richer in the tropics, J. Climate, 26, 3803-3822, 2013.
14. Colman, R. and McAvaney, B. : Climate feedbacks under a very broad range of forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L01702, doi:10. 1029/2008gl036268, 2009.
15. Eisenman, I. : Factors controlling the bifurcation structure of sea ice retreat, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D01111, doi:10. 1029/2011jd016164, 2012.
16. Field, C. B., Jackson, R. B., and Mooney, H. A. : Stomatal responses to increased CO2-implications from the plant to the globalscale, Plant Cell. Environ., 18, 1214-1225, doi:10. 1111/j. 1365-3040. 1995. Tb00630. x, 1995.
17. Frolicher, T. L., Winton, M., and Sarmiento, J. L. : Continued global warming after CO2 emissions stoppage, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 40-44, doi:10. 1038/Nclimate2060, 2014.
18. Good, P., Gregory, J. M., and Lowe, J. A. : A step-response simple climate model to reconstruct and interpret aogcm projections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L01703, doi:10. 1029/2010gl045208, 2011.
19. Good, P., Ingram, W., Lambert, F. H., Lowe, J. A., Gregory, J. M., Webb, M. J., Ringer, M. A., and Wu, P. L. : A step-response approach for predicting and understanding non-linear precipitation changes, Clim. Dynam., 39, 2789-2803, doi:10. 1007/s00382-012-1571-1, 2012.
20. Good, P., Gregory, J. M., Lowe, J. A., and Andrews, T. : Abrupt CO2 experiments as tools for predicting and understanding cmip5 representative concentration pathway projections, Clim. Dynam., 40, 1041-1053, doi:10. 1007/s00382-012-1410-4, 2013.
21. Good, P., Lowe, J. A., Andrews, T., Wiltshire, A., Chadwick, R., Ridley, J. K., Menary, M. B., Bouttes, N., Dufresne, J. L., Gregory, J. M., Schaller, N., and Shiogama, H. : Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO2 concentrations, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 138-142, doi:10. 1038/Nclimate2498, 2015.
22. Gregory, J. M., Ingram, W. J., Palmer, M. A., Jones, G. S., Stott, P. A., Thorpe, R. B., Lowe, J. A., Johns, T. C., and Williams, K. D. : A new method for diagnosing radiative forcing and climate sensitivity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L03205, doi:10. 1029/2003gl018747, 2004.
23. Hall, A. : The role of surface albedo feedback in climate, J. Climate, 17, 1550-1568, doi:10. 1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1550:Trosaf>2. 0. Co;2, 2004.
24. Hansen, J., Sato, M., Ruedy, R., Nazarenko, L., Lacis, A., Schmidt, G. A., Russell, G., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bauer, S., Bell, N., Cairns, B., Canuto, V., Chandler, M., Cheng, Y., Del Genio, A., Faluvegi, G., Fleming, E., Friend, A., Hall, T., Jackman, C., Kelley, M., Kiang, N., Koch, D., Lean, J., Lerner, J., Lo, K., Menon, S., Miller, R., Minnis, P., Novakov, T., Oinas, V., Perlwitz, J., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Shindell, D., Stone, P., Sun, S., Tausnev, N., Thresher, D., Wielicki, B., Wong, T., Yao, M., and Zhang, S. : Efficacy of climate forcings, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 110, D18104, doi:10. 1029/2005jd005776, 2005.
25. Hasselmann, K., Sausen, R., Maierreimer, E., and Voss, R. : On the cold start problem in transient simulations with coupled atmosphere-ocean models, Clim. Dynam., 9, 53-61, 1993.
26. Held, I. M., Winton, M., Takahashi, K., Delworth, T., Zeng, F. R., and Vallis, G. K. : Probing the fast and slow components of global warming by returning abruptly to preindustrial forcing, J. Climate, 23, 2418-2427, doi:10. 1175/2009jcli3466. 1, 2010.
27. Herger, N., Sanderson, B. M., and Knutti, R. : Improved pattern scaling approaches for the use in climate impact studies, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 3486-3494, doi:10. 1002/2015GL063569, 2015.
28. Hofmann, M. and Rahmstorf, S. : On the stability of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation, P. Natl. Sci. Acad. USA, 106, 20584-20589, doi:10. 1073/pnas. 0909146106, 2009.
29. Huntingford, C. and Cox, P. M. : An analogue model to derive additional climate change scenarios from existing gcm simulations, Clim. Dynam., 16, 575-586, 2000.
30. IPCC: Summary for policymakers, in: Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group i to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G. K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
31. Ishizaki, Y., Shiogama, H., Emori, S., Yokohata, T., Nozawa, T., Ogura, T., Abe, M., Yoshimori, M., and Takahashi, K. : Temperature scaling pattern dependence on representative concentration pathway emission scenarios, Climatic Change, 112, 535-546, doi:10. 1007/s10584-012-0430-8, 2012.
32. Jones, C., Lowe, J., Liddicoat, S., and Betts, R. : Committed terrestrial ecosystem changes due to climate change, Nat. Geosci., 2, 484-487, doi:10. 1038/Ngeo555, 2009.
33. Jonko, A. K., Shell, K. M., Sanderson, B. M., and Danabasoglu, G. : Climate feedbacks in ccsm3 under changing CO2 forcing. Part ii: Variation of climate feedbacks and sensitivity with forcing, J. Climate, 26, 2784-2795, doi:10. 1175/Jcli-D-12-00479. 1, 2013.
34. Li, S. and Jarvis, A. : Long run surface temperature dynamics of an a-ogcm: The hadcm3 4xco(2) forcing experiment revisited, Clim. Dynam., 33, 817-825, doi:10. 1007/s00382-009-0581-0, 2009.
35. Manabe, S., Bryan, K., and Spelman, M. J. : Transient-response of a global ocean atmosphere model to a doubling of atmospheric carbon-dioxide, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 20, 722-749, doi:10. 1175/1520-0485(1990)020<0722:Troago>2. 0. Co;2, 1990.
36. Meehl, G. A., Moss, R., Taylor, K. E., Eyring, V., Stouffer, R. J., Bony, S., and Stevens, B. : Climate model intercomparisons: Preparing for the next phase, Eos Trans. AGU, 95, 77-78, 2014.
37. Meinshausen, M., Raper, S. C. B., and Wigley, T. M. L. : Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6-Part 1: Model description and calibration, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 1417-1456, doi:10. 5194/acp-11-1417-2011, 2011.
38. Meraner, K., Mauritsen, T., and Voigt, A. : Robust increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5944-5948, doi:10. 1002/2013GL058118, 2013.
39. Mitchell, J. F. B., Wilson, C. A., and Cunnington, W. M. : On CO2 climate sensitivity and model dependence of results, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 113, 293-322, 1987.
40. Mitchell, T. D. : Pattern scaling-an examination of the accuracy of the technique for describing future climates, Climatic Change, 60, 217-242, 2003.
41. Myhre, G., Highwood, E. J., Shine, K. P., and Stordal, F. : New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 2715-2718, 1998.
42. Oueslati, B., Bony, S., Risi, C., and Dufresne, J. L. : Interpreting the inter-model spread in regional precipitation projections in the tropics: role of surface evaporation and cloud radiative effects, Clim. Dynam., 47, 2801-2815, doi:10. 1007/s00382-016-2998-6, 2016.
43. Santer, B., Wigley, T., Schlesinger, M., and Mitchell, J. F. B. : Developing climate scenarios from equilibrium gcm results, Report No. 47, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 1990.
44. Schaller, N., Cermak, J., Wild, M., and Knutti, R. : The sensitivity of the modeled energy budget and hydrological cycle to CO2 and solar forcing, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 253-266, doi:10. 5194/esd-4-253-2013, 2013.
45. Schaller, N., Sedlá?cek, N. J., and Knutti, R. : The asymmetry of the climate system's response to solar forcing changes and its implications for geoengineering scenarios, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 10, 5171-5184, 2014.
46. Screen, J. A. : Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid-to high-latitudes, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 577-582, doi:10. 1038/Nclimate2268, 2014.
47. Seneviratne, S. I., Luthi, D., Litschi, M., and Schar, C. : Landatmosphere coupling and climate change in europe, Nature, 443, 205-209, doi:10. 1038/Nature05095, 2006.
48. Seneviratne, S. I., Corti, T., Davin, E. L., Hirschi, M., Jaeger, E. B., Lehner, I., Orlowsky, B., and Teuling, A. J. : Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review, Earth-Sci. Rev., 99, 125-161, doi:10. 1016/j. earscirev. 2010. 02. 004, 2010.
49. Shaffer, G., Huber, M., Rondanelli, R., and Pedersen, J. O. P. : Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 6538-6545, doi:10. 1002/2016GL069243, 2016.
50. Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L. : Contribution of working group i to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007.
51. Stott, P., Good, P., Jones, G., Gillett, N., and Hawkins, E. : The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 014024, doi:10. 1088/1748-9326/8/1/014024, 2013.
52. Tebaldi, C., and Arblaster, J. M. : Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations, Climatic Change, 122, 459-471, doi:10. 1007/s10584-013-1032-9, 2014.
53. Williams, K. D., Ingram, W. J., and Gregory, J. M. : Time variation of effective climate sensitivity in gcms, J. Climate, 21, 5076-5090, doi:10. 1175/2008jcli2371. 1, 2008.
54. Zelinka, M. D., Klein, S. A., Taylor, K. E., Andrews, T., Webb, M. J., Gregory, J. M., and Forster, P. M. : Contributions of different cloud types to feedbacks and rapid adjustments in cmip5, J. Climate, 26, 5007-5027, doi:10. 1175/Jcli-D-12-00555. 1, 2013.