Japan’s plutonium policy: Consequences for nonproliferation

Nonproliferation Review

Volumn 5, Issue 1, 1997, Pages 53-61

  Katahara, Eiichi ^a  

^a KOBE GAKUIN UNIVERSITY   (Japan)

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EID: 84994309734     PISSN: 10736700     EISSN: 17461766     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/10736709708436693     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. This article was originally prepared for the Foreign and Security Policy Studies Program, sponsored by the Japan Center for International Exchange (JC1E) under the direction of Professor Masashi Nishihara. The program was funded by the Nippon Foundation. The author is grateful to Professor Nishihara, Paul Stares, Pamela Noda, and Nancy Viviani for useful comments and suggestions
2. “Proliferation” here refers to “the spread of nuclear, biological and chemical capabilities and the missiles to deliver them"; and “nonproliferation” is “the use of the full range of political, economic and military tools to prevent proliferation, reverse it diplomatically or protect our interests against an opponent armed with weapons of mass destruction or missiles, should that prove necessary”. See Daniel Poneman, Special Assistant to the President, Memorandum “Agreed Definitions,” February 18, 1994. (Reprinted in U.S. Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service, Nuclear Proliferation Factbook, prepared for the Committee on Governmental Affairs, United States Senate (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1995), p. 205)
3. See John F. Sopko, “The Changing Proliferation Threat," Foreign Policy 105 (Winter 1996-97), pp.3-20
4. “Statement by Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto at the 51st Session of the General Assembly of the United Nations, New York, September 24, 1996” (http://www.mofa.go.ja/f_m/hashimoto/sp_un.html)
5. George Perkovich, “The Plutonium Genie,” Foreign Affairs 72 (Summer 1993), pp. 153-165
6. Robert A. Manning, “Rethinking Japan’s Plutonium Policy: Key to Global Non-Proliferation and Northeast Asian Security,” Journal of East Asian Affairs 9 (Winter/Spring 1995), p. 116
7. Zachary Davis, “Nuclear Nonproliferation Policy Issues in the 104th Congress,” CRS Issue Brief 91-23 (updated November 1, 1996)
8. Robert A. Manning, “PACATOM: Nuclear Cooperation in Asia,” The Washington Quarterly 20 (Spring 1997), p. 218
9. It should be noted here that deficiencies exist in IAEA safeguards such as the IAEA’s inability to inspect against undeclared nuclear facilities or activities. See Kurosawa Mitsuru, ed., Gunshukumonndai nyumon (Issues in Disarmament: An Introduction) (Tokyo: Toshindo, 1996), Chapter 2
10. see also Henry Sokolski, “Nonproliferation: The Last 50 Years,” paper presented at the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, August 30, 1996, Chicago
11. See “President Ford’s statement on nuclear policy,” October 28, 1976. (Reprinted in U.S. Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service, Nuclear Proliferation Factbook, pp. 48-62)
12. See White House, Office of the Press Secretary, September 27, 1993, “Fact Sheet: NonProliferation and Export Control Policy”. (Reprinted in U.S. Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service, Nuclear Proliferation Factbook, pp. 195-196)
13. “Fact Sheet: NonProliferation and Export Control Policy.”, pp. 91-95
14. see also Kent E. Calder, Pacific Defense: Arms, Energy, and America’s Future in Asia (New York: William Morrow and Company, 1996) and his “Asia’s Empty Tank,” Foreign Affairs 75 (March/April 1996), pp. 55-69
15. Kent E. Calder, “Policy Forum: Energy Futures,” The Washington Quarterly 19 (Autumn 1996), p. 93
16. Kent E. Calder, The Washington Quarterly pp. 91-95
17. Kent E. Calder, The Washington Quarterly, pp. 92-93
18. Calder, Pacific Defense, p. 59
19. Calder, “Policy Forum…,” pp. 93-94
20. See Tatsujiro Suzuki, “Lessons from EURATOM for Possible Regional Nuclear Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region (ASIATOM),” paper presented at the Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue meeting, Beijing, January 810, 1996
21. Genshiryokuiinkai (Japan Atomic Energy Commission), Genshiryoku hakusho (White paper on Nuclear Energy)(Tokyo: Okurasho insatsukyoku, 1997), p. 3 and pp. 142-144
22. Asahi Shimbun, August 20, 1997, p. 5
23. IAEA Yearbook 1994, p. 12, cited in Michael Wilson, The Nuclear Future: Asia and Australia and the 1955 Conference on Non-Proliferation, Australia-Asia Papers No. 74 (Queensland: Centre for the Study of Australia-Asia Relations, Griffith University, March 1995), p. 19
24. See Genshiryokuiinkai (Japan Atomic Energy Commission), Genshiryoku hakusho (White paper on Nuclear Energy), pp. 110-111
25. See, for example, Michael W. Donnelly, “Japan’s Nuclear Energy Quest,” in Gerald L. Curtis, ed., Japan’s Foreign Policy After the Cold War (New York: M.E. Sharpe, 1993), pp. 179-201
26. For detailed analyses of these points, see Eugene Skolnikoff, Tatsujiro Suzuki, and Kenneth Oye, International Responses to Japanese Plutonium Programs (Cambridge, Mass.: Center for International Affairs, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, August 1995), pp. 27-41
27. Japan Atomic Energy Commission, “LongTerm Program for Research, Development and Utilization of Nuclear Energy,” June 24, 1994, p. 18
28. It is projected that coal reserves will be exhausted within about 200 years. See Eugene Skolnikoff, Tatsujiro Suzuki, and Kenneth Oye, International Responses to Japanese Plutonium Programs, p. 10
29. Skolnikoff, Suzuki, and Oye, International Responses to Japanese Plutonium Programs, pp. 34-37
30. Cited in Skolnikoff, Suzuki, and Oye, International Responses to Japanese Plutonium Programs, p. 2
31. Skolnikoff, Suzuki, and Oye, International Responses to Japanese Plutonium Programs, pp. 2-3
32. See Yoshinori lhara, “Nuclear Fuel Recycling Policy for the Future,” speech at the 10th Pacific Basin Nuclear Conference, October, 1996 (http://www-atm.jst-c.gov.jp/jicst/NC/announce/961025.html)
33. Japan Atomic Energy Commission, “Toumen no kakunenryo saikuru no gutaiteki na shisaku ni tuite (On current nuclear fuel recycling policies), January 30, 1997 (http://www-atm.jst-c.gov.jp/jics/NC/announce/siryo02.htm)
34. Ihara, “Nuclear Fuel Recycling Policy for the Future.”
35. See Motoya Kitamura, “Japan’s Plutonium Program: A Proliferation Threat,” The Nonproliferation Review 3 (Winter 1996)
36. Skolnikoff, Suzuki, and Oye, International Responses to Japanese Plutonium Programs, pp. 18-19
37. Genshiryokuiinkai (Japan Atomic Energy Commission), Genshiryoku hakusho (White paper on Nuclear Energy), p. 77
38. Skolnikoff, Suzuki, and Oye, International Responses to Japanese Plutonium Programs, pp. 263-290
39. Atsuyuki Suzuki, “A Proposal for Regional Spent Fuel Storage,” IGCC Newsletter, Vol. 12, No. 2 (1996), pp. 8-9
40. Ryukichi Imai, “A Call for Regional Cooperation in Nuclear Energy,” Japan Review of International Affairs 9 (Summer 1995)
41. Mark Hibbs, “Japanese Say U.S. Blocking Efforts to Build Regional Fuel Cycle Links,” Fuel Cycle 21 (November 5, 1996)
42. see also Kaneko Kumao, Nihon no kaku, ajia no kaku (Japan’s Nuclear Power, Asia’s Nuclear Power) (Tokyo: Asahi Shimbunsha, 1997), Chapter 6 and pp. 268-281
43. See Robert A. Manning, “PACATOM: Nuclear Cooperation in Asia.”
44. Jor-shan Choi, “Developing a Regional Nuclear Energy Compact,” IGCC Newsletter, Vol. 12, No. 2 (1996), pp. 8-9
45. This section draws in part on Skolnikoff, Suzuki, and Oye, International Responses to Japanese Plutonium Programs, and Kitamura, “Japan’s Plutonium Program: A Proliferation Threat.”
46. For analyses of these issues, see Kitamura, “Japan’s Plutonium Program: A Proliferation Threat”
47. Peter Dauvergne, “Nuclear Power Development in Japan," Asian Survey 33 (June 1993)
48. Richard J. Samuels, The Business of the Japanese State: Energy markets in Comparative and Historical Perspective (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1987)
49. Manning, "PACATOM: Nuclear Cooperation in Asia,” pp. 221-222
50. Skolnikoff, Suzuki, and Oye, International Responses to Japanese Plutonium Programs, p. 32
51. Manning, “PACATOM: Nuclear Cooperation in Asia,” pp. 222
52. China announced that it would build 50 tons per year reprocessing plant by 2000, and 400 to 800 tons per year plant by 2010 or so. See Tatsujiro Suzuki, “Lessons from EURATOM for Possible Regional Nuclear Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region (ASIATOM)”
53. Taewoo Kim, “Japanese Ambitions, U.S. Constraints, and South Korea’s Nuclear Future,” in Selig S. Harrison, ed., Japan’s Nuclear Future: The Plutonium Debate and East Asian Security (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1996), pp. 87-109
54. Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS), Special Memorandum, “South Korea’s Emerging Nuclear Potential,” February 22, 1996
55. See Yomiuri Shimbun kagakubu, Dokyumento ’monju’ jiko (The Document: the ‘Monju’ Accident) (Tokyo: Mioshin shuppan, 1996)
56. Asahi Shimbun, March 12, 1997
57. Asahi Shimbun, April 16, 1997
58. Yomiuri Shimbun, August 27, 1997
59. The New York Times, November 10, 1992, p. 22
60. Nevertheless, the United States managed to strengthen its control over “sensitive technologies and material” and plutonium shipments. See Skolnikoff, Suzuki, and Oye, International Responses to Japanese Plutonium Programs, pp. 7-8
61. See Selig S. Harrison, “Japan and Nuclear Weapons”; Andrew Mack, Proliferation in Northeast Asia, Occasional Paper 28 (Washington, D.C.; Henry L. Stimson Center, 1996)
62. See Kumao Kaneko, “Japan Needs No Umbrella,” The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (March/April 1996)
63. Manning, “PACATOM: Nuclear Cooperation in Asia.”
64. For a proposal on increasing transparency, see Charles W. Nakhleh, “Addressing the Implications of the Japanese Fuel Cycle through Transparency,” The Nonproliferation Review 4 (Spring-Summer 1997)