Modelling the dynamics of post-vaccination immunity rate in a population of sahelian sheep after a vaccination campaign against peste des petits ruminants virus

PLoS ONE

Volumn 11, Issue 9, 2016, Pages

  Hammami, Pachka ^a   Lancelot, Renaud ^a   Lesnoff, Matthieu ^b  

^a UMR ASTRE   (France)

^b UMR SELMET   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CONTROLLED STUDY; FEMALE; INFECTION PREVENTION; MALE; NONHUMAN; PESTE DES PETITS RUMINANTS; PESTE-DES-PETITS-RUMINANTS VIRUS; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION SIZE; POST EXPOSURE PROPHYLAXIS; SEASONAL VARIATION; SHEEP; SURVIVAL ANALYSIS; VACCINATION; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; AFRICA; ANIMAL; ASIA; DOMESTIC SHEEP; GOAT; IMMUNOLOGY; MIDDLE EAST; PATHOGENICITY; PESTE-DES-PETITS-RUMINANTS; PREVENTIVE HEALTH SERVICE; VIROLOGY;

AFRICA; ANIMALS; ASIA; GOATS; IMMUNIZATION PROGRAMS; MIDDLE EAST; PESTE-DES-PETITS-RUMINANTS; PESTE-DES-PETITS-RUMINANTS VIRUS; SHEEP, DOMESTIC; VACCINATION;

EID: 84992401741     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0161769     Document Type: Article

References (81)

1. Baron MD, Diallo A, Lancelot R, Libeau G. Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus. In: Advances in virus research. vol. 95. Elsevier BV; 2016. p. 1-42. Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/bs.aivir.2016. 02.001
2. Stem C. An economic analysis of the prevention of peste des petits ruminants in Nigerien goats. Preventive Veterinary Medicine. 1993; 16(2):141-150. doi: 10.1016/0167-5877(93)90084-7
3. Thombare N, Sinha MK. Economic Implications of Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) Disease in Sheep and Goats: A Sample Analysis of District Pune, Maharastra1. Agricultural Economics Research Review. 2009; 22(2):319-322.
4. Kihu SM, Gitao GC, Bebora LC, John NM, Wairire GG, Maingi N, et al. Economic losses associated with Peste des petits ruminants in Turkana County Kenya. Pastoralism. 2015; 5(1):1-8. doi: 10.1186/s13570-015-0029-6
5. Roeder P, Mariner J, Kock R. Rinderpest: The veterinary perspective on eradication. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences. 2013; 368 (1623):20120139. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2012.0139
6. Albina E, Kwiatek O, Minet C, Lancelot R, Servan de Almeida R, Libeau G. Peste des petits ruminants, the next eradicated animal disease? Veterinary Microbiology. 2013; 165(1):38-44. doi: 10.1016/j. vetmic.2012.12.013
7. FAO, OIE. Global Strategy for the Control and Eradication of PPR. FAO and OIE; 2015.
8. Diallo A, Taylor W, Lefevre P, Provost A. [Attenuation of a strain of rinderpest virus: potential homologous live vaccine]. Revue d'Élevage et de Médecine vétérinaire des Pays tropicaux. 1989; 42(3):311-319.
9. Diallo A, Minet C, Le Goff C, Berhe G, Albina E, Libeau G, et al. The threat of peste des petits ruminants: progress in vaccine development for disease control. Vaccine. 2007; 25(30):5591-5597. doi: 10. 1016/j.vaccine.2007.02.013
10. Zahur AB, Irshad H, Ullah A, Afzal M, Latif A, Ullah RW, et al. Peste des Petits Ruminants Vaccine (Nigerian Strain 75/1) Confers Protection for at Least 3 Years in Sheep and Goats. Journal of Biosciences and Medicines. 2014; 2(06):27. doi: 10.4236/jbm.2014.26005
11. Bidjeh K, Diguimbaye C, Hendrikx P, Dedet V, Tchari D, et al. Immunité passive colostrale chez les jeunes issus des chèvres et brebis vaccinées avec le vaccin antipeste des petits ruminants. Cahiers Agricultures. 1999; 8(3):219-222.
12. Awa DN, Ngagnou A, Tefiang E, Yaya D, Njoya A. Post vaccination and colostral peste des petits ruminants antibody dynamics in research flocks of Kirdi goats and Foulbe sheep of north Cameroon. Preventive Veterinary Medicine. 2002; 55(4):265-271. doi: 10.1016/S0167-5877(02)00013-2
13. Bodjo SC, Couacy-Hymann E, Koffi MY, Danho T. Assessment of the duration of maternal antibodies specific to the homologous peste des petits ruminant vaccine "Nigeria 75/1" in Djallonké lambs. Biokemistri. 2006; 18(2):99-103.
14. Niewiesk S. Maternal antibodies: clinical significance, mechanism of interference with immune responses, and possible vaccination strategies. Frontiers in Immunology. 2014; 5(446):1-15.
15. Ata F, Al Sumry H, King G, Ismaili S, Ata A. Duration of maternal immunity to peste des petits ruminants. Veterinary Record. 1989; 124(22):590-591. doi: 10.1136/vr.124.22.590
16. Balamurugan V, Sen A, Venkatesan G, Rajak KK, Bhanuprakash V, Singh RK. Study on passive immunity: Time of vaccination in kids born to goats vaccinated against peste des petits ruminants. Virologica Sinica. 2012; 27(4):228-233. doi: 10.1007/s12250-012-3249-6
17. Lesnoff M, Peyre M, Duarte P, Renard JF, Mariner J. A simple model for simulating immunity rate dynamics in a tropical free-range poultry population after avian influenza vaccination. Epidemiology and Infection. 2009; 137(10):1405-1413. doi: 10.1017/S0950268809002453
18. Getz WM, Haight RG. Population harvesting: demographic models of fish, forest, and animal resources. vol. 27. Princeton University Press; 1989.
19. Tuljapurkar S, Caswell H. Structured-population models in marine, terrestrial, and freshwater systems. vol. 18. Springer; 1997.
20. Caswell H. Matrix population models. Wiley Online Library; 2001.
21. Lesnoff M, Laval G, Bonnet P, Chalvet-Monfray K, Lancelot R, Thiaucourt F. A mathematical model of the effects of chronic carriers on the within-herd spread of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia in an African mixed crop-livestock system. Preventive Veterinary Medicine. 2004; 62:101-117. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2003.11.009
22. Matser A, Hartemink N, Heesterbeek H, Galvani A, Davis S. Elasticity analysis in epidemiology: An application to tick-borne infections. Ecology Letters. 2009 Dec; 12(12):1298-1305. Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01378.x doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01378.x
23. Texeira M, Paruelo JM, Jobbagy E. How do forage availability and climate control sheep reproductive performance?: An analysis based on artificial neural networks and remotely sensed data. Ecological Modelling. 2008; 217(1-2):197-206. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.06.027
24. Lesnoff M. Dynamics of a sheep population in a Sahelian area (Ndiagne district in Senegal): A periodic matrix model. Agricultural Systems. 1999; 61(3):207-221. doi: 10.1016/S0308-521X(99)00053-0
25. Faugère O, Dockes A, Perrot C, Faugère B. L'élevage traditionnel des petits ruminants au Sénégal. II. Pratiques de conduite et d'exploitation des animaux chez les éleveurs de la région de Louga [Traditional small ruminant rearing system in Senegal. II. Animal management and husbandry pratices by livestock owners in the Louga area]. Revue d'Elevage et de Médecine vétérinaire des Pays Tropicaux. 1990;43(2).
26. Moulin CH. Performances animales et pratiques d'élevage en Afrique sahélienne. La diversité du fonctionnement des troupeaux de petits ruminants dans la Communauté Rurale de Ndiagne (Sénégal) [Animal performance and breeding practices in Sahelian Africa: diversity of functionning in small ruminant herds in the rural community of Ndiagne (Senegal)] [PhD thesis Institut National Agronomique Paris-Grignon]. Institut National Agronomique Paris-Grignon; 1993.
27. Lesnoff M. Étude de la dynamique et de la productivité des populations domestiques tropicales par les modèles matriciels en temps discret: les populations d'ovins au Sénégal [Tropical livestock dynamics and productivity analysis with discrete time matrix models: sheep populations in Senegal] [PhD thesis]. Université Montpellier II Sciences et Techniques du Languedoc. Montpellier; 2000.
28. Anderson RM, May RM. Directly transmitted infectious diseases: control by vaccination. Science. 1982; 215 (4536):1053-1060. doi: 10.1126/science.7063839
29. Fine PE. Herd immunity: history, theory, practice. Epidemiologic Reviews. 1993; 15(2):265-302.
30. Zahur A, Ullah A, Irshad H, Farooq M, Hussain M, Jahangir M, et al. Epidemiological investigations of a peste des petits ruminants (PPR) outbreak in Afghan sheep in Pakistan. Pakistan Veterinary Journal. 2009; 29(4):174-178.
31. Kivaria FM, Kwiatek O, Kapaga AM, Swai ES, Libeau G, Moshy W, et al. The incursion, persistence and spread of peste des petits ruminants in Tanzania: Epidemiological patterns and predictions. Onderstepoort Journal of Veterinary Research. 2013; 80(1):01-10. doi: 10.4102/ojvr.v80i1.593
32. EFSA AHAW Panel E. Scientific opinion on peste des petits ruminants. EFSA Journal. 2015; 13(1):94.
33. Ettair M. Stratégie de surveillance et de lutte contre la PPR au Maroc [PPR surveillance and control strategy in Morocco]. In: REMESA: Atelier conjoint REPIVET-RESEPSA des 12 et 13 Juillet 2012, Tunis. Tunis: REMESA: www.remesanetwork.org; 2012. Available from: http://www.remesanetwork. org/fileadmin/user-upload/remesa/docs/RESEPSA/Atelier-2012-July-REPIVET-RESPSA/PPR-MAROC.pdf
34. McSweeney C, New M, Lizcano G. Senegal. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles; 2012.
35. Lancelot R, Faye B, Juanes X, Ndiaye M, Perochon L, Tillard E. The Baobab database: A tool for modeling small ruminants production and health in traditional farming systems in Senegal. Revue d'Élevage et de Médecine vétérinaire des Pays tropicaux. 1998; 51(2):135-146.
36. Lesnoff M, Lancelot R, Moulin CH, Messad S, Juanès X, Sahut C. Package Laserdemog. In: Calculation of Demographic Parameters in Tropical Livestock Herds. Springer; 2014. p. 41-52.
37. Plowright W, Herniman K, Rampton C. Studies on rinderpest culture vaccine. I. Some factors affecting virus production. Research in Veterinary Science. 1969 Jul; 10(4):373-381.
38. Zomer R, Trabucco A, van Straaten O, Bossio D. Carbon, land and water: A global analysis of the hydrologic dimensions of climate change mitigation through afforestation/reforestation. International Water Management Institute; 2006.
39. Trabucco A, Zomer R. Global aridity index (global-Aridity) and global potential evapo-Transpiration (global-PET) geospatial database. Consortium for Spatial Information (CGIAR-CSI); 2009.
40. Lesnoff M, Ezanno P, Caswell H. Sensitivity analysis in periodic matrix models: A postscript to Caswell and Trevisan. Mathematical and Computer Modelling. 2003; 37(9):945-948. doi: 10.1016/S0895-7177 (03)00110-9
41. Bacaër N. Periodic matrix population models: growth rate, basic reproduction number, and entropy. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. 2009 October; 71(7):1781-1792. doi: 10.1007/s11538-009-9426-6
42. Napier K, Mullaney P. Sex ratio in sheep. Journal of Reproduction and Fertility. 1974; 39(2):391-392. doi: 10.1530/jrf.0.0390391
43. Kent J. Birth sex ratios in sheep over six lambing seasons. Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology. 1992; 30(3-4):151-155. doi: 10.1007/BF00166697
44. Kent J. Birth sex ratios in sheep over nine lambing seasons: years 7-9 and the effects of ageing. Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology. 1995; 36(2):101-104. doi: 10.1007/BF00170714
45. Lesnoff M, Lancelot R. Assessment of age at first parturition by accounting censored data: The example of small ruminants in agropastoral herds in Senegal. Tropical Animal Health and Production. 2010; 42 (6):1155-1159. doi: 10.1007/s11250-010-9540-3
46. Nantoumé H, Kouriba A, Diarra C, Coulibaly D. Improvement of the productivity of small ruminants: A way of diversification of income and fighting against food insecurity. Livestock Research for Rural Development. 2011 May; 23(5):110.
47. Mopaté LY, Zeuh V, Adoum IY, Nadjissara D. Structure and reproductive performances of Sahelian goats in the Guera region, in central Chad. Open Journal of Animal Sciences. 2014; 4(4):175-181. Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ojas.2014.44022 doi: 10.4236/ojas.2014.44022
48. Libeau G, Prehaud C, Lancelot R, Colas F, Guerre L, Bishop D, et al. Development of a competitive ELISA for detecting antibodies to the peste des petits ruminants virus using a recombinant nucleobrotein. Research in veterinary science. 1995; 58(1):50-55. doi: 10.1016/0034-5288(95)90088-8
49. El-Yuguda AD, Baba SS, Ambali AG, Egwu GO. Seroprevalence of peste des petits ruminants among domestic small and large ruminants in the semi-Arid region of North-eastern Nigeria. Veterinary World. 2013; 6:807-811. doi: 10.14202/vetworld.2013.807-811
50. Kihu SM, Gachohi JM, Ndungu EK, Gitao GC, Bebora LC, John NM, et al. Sero-epidemiology of Peste des petits ruminants virus infection in Turkana County, Kenya. BMC Vet Res. 2015; 11:87. Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12917-015-0401-1 doi: 10.1186/s12917-015-0401-1
51. Sow A, Ouattara L, Compaore Z, Doulkom B, Pare M, Poda G, et al. Prévalence sérologique de la peste des petits ruminants dans la province du Soum au nord du Burkina Faso [Serologic prevalence of peste des petits ruminants in Soum Province, North of Burkina Faso]. Revue d'Élevage et de Médecine vétérinaire des Pays tropicaux. 2008;61(1).
52. Farougou S, Gagara M, Mensah GA. Prevalence of peste des petits ruminants in the arid zone in the Republic of Niger. Onderstepoort Journal of Veterinary Research. 2013; 80(1):01-06. doi: 10.4102/ojvr.v80i1.544
53. El Arbi AS, El Mamy AB, Salami H, Isselmou E, Kwiatek O, Libeau G, et al. Peste des petits ruminants virus, Mauritania. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 2014; 20(2):334. doi: 10.3201/eid2002.131345
54. Diallo A. Control of peste des petits ruminants: classical and new generation vaccines. Developments in Biologicals. 2003; 114:113-119.
55. Burnham KP, Anderson DR. Model selection and multimodel inference: A practical information-Theoretic approach. Springer Science & Business Media; 2002.
56. Collett D. Modelling binary data. 2nd ed. CRC press; 2003.
57. Agresti A. Categorical Data Analysis. John Wiley & Sons; 2013.
58. Lebreton JD, Burnham KP, Clobert J, Anderson DR. Modeling survival and testing biological hypotheses using marked animals: A unified approach with case studies. Ecological Monographs. 1992; 62 (1):67-118. doi: 10.2307/2937171
59. Searle SR, Speed FM, Milliken GA. Population marginal means in the linear model: An alternative to least squares means. The American Statistician. 1980; 34(4):216-221. doi: 10.2307/2684063
60. McCullagh P, Nelder JA. Generalized linear models. vol. 37. CRC press; 1989.
61. Lesnoff M, Lancelot R, Tillard E, Dohoo IR. A steady-state approach of benefit-cost analysis with a periodic Leslie-matrix model: presentation and application to the evaluation of a sheep-diseases preventive scheme in Kolda, Senegal. Preventive Veterinary Medicine. 2000; 46(2):113-128. doi: 10.1016/S0167-5877(00)00139-2
62. Lesnoff M, Lancelot R, Tillard E, Faye B. Analyse comparative de la productivité des cheptels de petits ruminants en élevage extensif tropical: une nouvelle approche par les modèles matriciels en temps discret [Comparative analysis of the productivity of small ruminant flocks under tropical extensive management: A new Leslie-matrix model approach]. Revue d'Élevage et de Médecine vétérinaire des Pays tropicaux. 2001;54(1).
63. Lesnoff M. Uncertainty analysis of the productivity of cattle populations in tropical drylands. Animal. 2015; 9(11):1888-1896. doi: 10.1017/S175173111500124X
64. The R Core Team. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. URL http://www.R-project. org. 2015;p. 3366.
65. Sarr J, Diop M. Rinderpest in Senegal: Results of two years of seromonitoring 1991-1992. In: Jeggo RE M & Geiger, editor. Research Co-ordination Meeting of the FAO//AEA/SIDA/OAU/IBAR/PARC Coordinated Research Programme organized by the Joint FAO!IAEA Division of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture and held in Cairo, Egypt, 7-11 November 1993; 1994. p. 195-204.
66. Rousseau R. La période des cultures et des récoltes au Sénégal. L'information géographique. 1954; 18(2):68-70. doi: 10.3406/ingeo.1954.1368
67. Delville PL, Gregoire E, Janin P, Koechlin J, Raynaut C. Societies and Nature in the Sahel. Routledge; 2002.
68. Adams W, Mortimore M. Working the Sahel. Routledge; 2005.
69. Al-Sabbagh T, Swanson L, Thompson J. The effect of ewe body condition at lambing on colostral immunoglobulin G concentration and lamb performance. Journal of Animal Science. 1995; 73 (10):2860-2864. doi: 10.2527/1995.73102860x
70. Nowak R, Poindron P. From birth to colostrum: early steps leading to lamb survival. Reproduction Nutrition Development. 2006; 46(4):431-446. doi: 10.1051/rnd:2006023
71. Hashemi M, Zamiri M, Safdarian M. Effects of nutritional level during late pregnancy on colostral production and blood immunoglobulin levels of Karakul ewes and their lambs. Small Ruminant Research. 2008; 75(2):204-209. doi: 10.1016/j.smallrumres.2007.11.002
72. Alves A, Alves N, Ascari I, Junqueira F, Coutinho A, Lima R, et al. Colostrum composition of Santa Inês sheep and passive transfer of immunity to lambs. Journal of Dairy Science. 2015; 98(6):3706-3716.
73. Nsubuga P, White ME, Thacker SB, Anderson MA, Blount SB, Broome CV, et al. Public health surveillance: A tool for targeting and monitoring interventions. Disease control priorities in developing countries. 2006; 2:997-1018.
74. Ryan T, Livingstone P, Ramsey D, De Lisle G, Nugent G, Collins D, et al. Advances in understanding disease epidemiology and implications for control and eradication of tuberculosis in livestock: The experience from New Zealand. Veterinary Microbiology. 2006; 112(2):211-219. doi: 10.1016/j.vetmic.2005. 11.025
75. Mariner JC, McDermott J, Heesterbeek JAP, Catley A, Roeder P. A model of lineage-1 and lineage-2 rinderpest virus transmission in pastoral areas of East Africa. Preventive Veterinary Medicine. 2005 Jul; 69(3-4):245-263. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2005.02.001
76. Brisson M, Edmunds WJ. Economic evaluation of vaccination programs: The impact of herd-immunity. Medical Decision Making. 2003; 23(1):76-82. doi: 10.1177/0272989X02239651
77. Jones BA, Rich KM, Mariner JC, Anderson J, Jeggo M, Thevasagayam S, et al. The Economic Impact of Eradicating Peste des Petits Ruminants: A Benefit-Cost Analysis. PLoS ONE. 2016 Feb; 11(2): e0149982. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0149982
78. Kong X, Hu Y, Rui R, Wang D, Li X. Effects of Chinese herbal medicinal ingredients on peripheral lymphocyte proliferation and serum antibody titer after vaccination in chicken. International Immunopharmacology. 2004; 4(7):975-982. doi: 10.1016/j.intimp.2004.03.008
79. Coward C, Restif O, Dybowski R, Grant AJ, Maskell DJ, Mastroeni P. The effects of vaccination and immunity on bacterial infection dynamics in vivo. PLoS Pathogens. 2014; 10(9):e1004359. doi: 10. 1371/journal.ppat.1004359
80. Davis CL, Wahid R, Toapanta FR, Simon JK, Sztein MB, Levy D. Applying mathematical tools to accelerate vaccine development: modeling Shigella immune dynamics. PLoS ONE. 2013; 8(4):e59465. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0059465
81. Lesnoff M, Lancelot R, Moulin CH, Messad S, Juanès X, Sahut C. Calculation of demographic parameters in tropical livestock herds. Quae; 2011. Available from: http://livtools.cirad.fr